Exit poll: Conservatives surprisingly strong in UK election

[webfact]

Exit poll: Conservatives surprisingly strong in UK election
By JILL LAWLESS and DANICA KIRKA

LONDON (AP) — An exit poll projected a surprisingly strong showing for Prime Minister David Cameron's Conservative Party in Britain's election Thursday, suggesting it is within touching distance of forming a new government.

The opposition Labour Party fared worse than expected, the exit poll suggested, and Cameron's coalition partner, the Liberal Democrat Party, was expected to lose most of its seats. The biggest surge was for the separatist Scottish National Party, which was expected to take all but one of the seats in Scotland.

The exit poll, based on interviews with 22,000 voters, differed strongly from opinion polls conducted during the month-long election campaign, which had put the Conservatives and Ed Miliband's Labour Party neck-and-neck with about a third of the vote share each.

Political leaders said they would wait for actual results before jumping to conclusions, and some in the Labour Party expressed skepticism about the poll.

"I have to say it just doesn't feel right," said longtime Labour adviser Alistair Campbell.

The survey was conducted by pollsters GfK and Ipsos MORI for Britain's broadcasters and released as polling stations closed at 10 p.m. (2100 GMT).

Results began coming in within an hour of polls closing. The seat of Houghton and Sunderland South in northeast England was the first of the 650 to complete the traditional election-night ritual: Votes in each constituency are counted by hand and the candidates — each wearing a bright rosette in the color of their party — line up onstage as a returning officer reads out the results.

The first three seats of the night all went to Labour — but all three had been expected to.

The exit poll projected that the Conservatives would get 316 seats — up from 302 and far more than had been predicted — and Labour 239, down from 256. The Liberal Democrats would shrink from 56 seats to 10, and the Scottish nationalists would grow from six to 58.

If the exit poll is accurate, the Conservative Party would be in a commanding position to form the next government by seeking partners from smaller parties.

There could be a re-run of the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition that has governed since 2010. The poll put the two parties' total at 326 — just over half the 650 seats in the House of Commons.

Cameron could also seek support from the right-of-center Democratic Unionists in Northern Ireland, who had eight seats before the election, or the anti-European U.K. Independence Party.

The Conservatives and Labour have both watched voters turn elsewhere — chiefly to the Scottish nationalists, who will dominate north of the border, and the anti-immigrant U.K. Independence Party.

UKIP ran third in opinion polls, but the exit poll predicted it would win just two seats because its support isn't concentrated in specific areas. The Greens were also forecast to get two seats.

Conservative politicians did not declare victory, and Labour did not concede defeat, as everyone waited to see whether the poll's surprising predictions would be borne out.

Former Liberal Democrat leader Paddy Ashdown was skeptical.

"I'll bet you my hat, eaten on your program, that it is wrong," he told the BBC.

The chief exit pollster, John Curtice of Strathclyde University, said the methodology was the same as in 2010, when the poll turned out to be very accurate.

He said it looked as if Conservative and Labour gains had canceled each other out across England and Wales, and that Labour had lost much of its support in Scotland to the SNP.

The carefully stage-managed campaign lacked impromptu drama, but many voters felt that the stakes were high in an election that shattered the dominance of the two major parties.

All day across this nation of 64 million people, voters streamed to schools, churches and even pubs for a say in their country's future.

"This is the most exciting election I can remember," said Lesley Milne, 48, from Glasgow, who supports the Scottish National Party. "It's time to shake up the politicians in London and the SNP are the people to do it."

Television debate appearances in which the public put questions directly to the politicians made plain that many distrust promises to safeguard the economy, protect the National Health Service from severe cutbacks and control the number of immigrants from eastern Europe.

Britain's economy — recovering after years of turmoil that followed the 2008 financial crisis — was at the core of many voters' concerns.

In Whitechapel, one of London's poorest communities that is home to a large ethnic minority population, voters struggling in the wake of the worst recession since the 1930s wanted a change in leadership.

"The first priority is the economy, the second one is creating more jobs, and the third is living expenses — they're going higher and higher," said Shariq ul-Islam, a 24-year-old student of Bangladeshi descent.

Just a few minutes away is the City of London, the traditional financial district where many bankers earn salaries that their Whitechapel neighbors can only dream of.

Here, Christopher Gardner, a 34-year-old finance industry official, had trust in the Conservatives.

"There are some issues that have been caused by austerity previously — they're the only people that I'm confident will resolve that," he said.

About 50 million people were registered to vote, and turnout appeared to be high across the United Kingdom's four parts — England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Even Denmark's prime minister popped into a British polling station — though not to vote. Helle Thorning-Schmidt was in South Wales to support her husband, Stephen Kinnock, a Labour Party candidate for the constituency of Aberavon.

Even as Labour faced disaster, it looked likely Kinnock would win the seat, a party stronghold.

Asked how they would celebrate his win, she said: "Let's wait and see how things go today."
___

Sylvia Hui, Paul Kelbie, Gregory Katz and Martin Benedyk contributed to this story.


-- (c) Associated Press 2015-05-08

[webfact]

UK election exit poll predicts Conservatives will be largest party in a hung parliament, with 316 seats to Labour's 239 /BBC

LONDON (AP) - Exit Poll: Scottish National Party to win all but 1 Scotland seats; LibDems fall from 56 to 10.

LONDON (AP) - Exit poll: Conservatives to win 316 seats, Labour 239 in UK's 650-seat parliament.

[fredob43]

Why Surprising ???

Labour said they were the party of the national health. If you look at their record with the Welsh N/Health service a total disaster.

Then how they left the country's coffers 5 years ago.

I wont go down the two EDD's route.

UKIP now that's a different kettle of fish.

Why I would like to ask is anyone surprised.

Some People have long memories.

[cumgranosalum]

Exit polls are often very accurate, but leading up to the moment this time they have indicated that the situation is further complicated by the added number of parties in contention.

They are a lot more than just asking a few people who they voted for.

About a 100 people are interviewed at chosen pollingstations deemed to have demographics that reflect the bigger picture.

About 20,000 people are interviewed they are asked a series of questions about how they voted in the past etc etc.......their answers are then put into context and analysed.....

According to the Guardian...

“Once the data is collected, the second task is to model the collected data into a projection by taking into account various factors such as demographics (which exit polls helpfully collect alongside voting information), past voting preferences and exit poll patterns, differential swing and turnout between different locations, and the likely outcome all this pooled information from the polled constituencies implies for constituencies elsewhere.”

Then there is the margin of error - e.g. 10 seats...which in these circumstances could been a completely different scenario.

Edited May 8, 2015 by cumgranosalum

[pitrevie]

Why Surprising ???

Labour said they were the party of the national health. If you look at their record with the Welsh N/Health service a total disaster.

Then how they left the country's coffers 5 years ago.

I wont go down the two EDD's route.

UKIP now that's a different kettle of fish.

Why I would like to ask is anyone surprised.

Some People have long memories.

I agree it was totally irresponsible of the last Labour government using billions of taxpayers money to bail out the casinos. If anyone invests their money in a casino then they deserve to lose the lot and no government should waste money in rescuing the banks or financial institutions. Hopefully if the election news is correct we will see a right wing government elected and bankers bonuses and remunerations will return to their normal levels and those banks that are in public hands are once again returned to the private sector where they know how to run these things much better. I haven't figured out how they managed to first start the financial crash in the USA under a right wing president but hopefully this swing to the right will be replicated in the USA and we will once again see a right wing government there that knows how to run the economy and not the left wing socialist they have in power now.

[cumgranosalum]

Why Surprising ???

Labour said they were the party of the national health. If you look at their record with the Welsh N/Health service a total disaster.

Then how they left the country's coffers 5 years ago.

I wont go down the two EDD's route.

UKIP now that's a different kettle of fish.

Why I would like to ask is anyone surprised.

Some People have long memories.

to attempt to attribute the large difference between the pre-vote polls and the exit polls (a gap of only hours) to a perception labour policy dating back 5 years would seem pretty daft.

[cumgranosalum]

Why Surprising ???

Labour said they were the party of the national health. If you look at their record with the Welsh N/Health service a total disaster.

Then how they left the country's coffers 5 years ago.

I wont go down the two EDD's route.

UKIP now that's a different kettle of fish.

Why I would like to ask is anyone surprised.

Some People have long memories.

I agree it was totally irresponsible of the last Labour government using billions of taxpayers money to bail out the casinos. If anyone invests their money in a casino then they deserve to lose the lot and no government should waste money in rescuing the banks or financial institutions. Hopefully if the election news is correct we will see a right wing government elected and bankers bonuses and remunerations will return to their normal levels and those banks that are in public hands are once again returned to the private sector where they know how to run these things much better. I haven't figured out how they managed to first start the financial crash in the USA under a right wing president but hopefully this swing to the right will be replicated in the USA and we will once again see a right wing government there that knows how to run the economy and not the left wing socialist they have in power now.

I think you could do with some more sophisticated political categorisations before you indulge in some simplistic left/right theories on economics.

[pitrevie]

Why Surprising ???

Labour said they were the party of the national health. If you look at their record with the Welsh N/Health service a total disaster.

Then how they left the country's coffers 5 years ago.

I wont go down the two EDD's route.

UKIP now that's a different kettle of fish.

Why I would like to ask is anyone surprised.

Some People have long memories.

I agree it was totally irresponsible of the last Labour government using billions of taxpayers money to bail out the casinos. If anyone invests their money in a casino then they deserve to lose the lot and no government should waste money in rescuing the banks or financial institutions. Hopefully if the election news is correct we will see a right wing government elected and bankers bonuses and remunerations will return to their normal levels and those banks that are in public hands are once again returned to the private sector where they know how to run these things much better. I haven't figured out how they managed to first start the financial crash in the USA under a right wing president but hopefully this swing to the right will be replicated in the USA and we will once again see a right wing government there that knows how to run the economy and not the left wing socialist they have in power now.

I think you could do with some more sophisticated political categorisations before you indulge in some simplistic left/right theories on economics.

I could do that as well, quoting verbatim the numerous statements made by the then opposition criticizing Brown for being too harsh in his regulation of the financial system but I responded to the simplistic statement about "how they left the country's coffers 5 years ago." I am no admirer of Brown but this equally simplistic automatic blaming "them" for the financial crash in 2008 which was not of the public finances but in private finances and affected many countries throughout the Western world with the exception of Greece where it was public finances.

[IMA_FARANG]

Watching CNN with the results this (Bangkok) morning:

• SNP has taken almost all the Scot seats, especially from the Labour and Lib Dems.
• It is basically all SNP in Scotland
• The Lib Dems are the big loser down south of the Scot border
• Still unclear if the Conservatives will be able to get an absolute majority.... most predicting a few seats less than a majority for the Conservatives.
• I didn't see any declarations being make for the UKIP, but they are taking many 2nd place or 3rd place in previous Labour seats...... and those seats now going to some Conservatives that were previously Labour seats.

[JetsetBkk]

Why Surprising ???

Labour said they were the party of the national health. If you look at their record with the Welsh N/Health service a total disaster.

Then how they left the country's coffers 5 years ago.

I wont go down the two EDD's route.

UKIP now that's a different kettle of fish.

Why I would like to ask is anyone surprised.

Some People have long memories.

Exactly. All this "too close to call" BS is just to sell news rags.

It's a pity the huge swing to UKIP didn't result in seats.

[EnglishJohn]

Lack of a viable alternative means the Tories were bound to win. Lord knows why Labour allowed Milliband-the-muppet to stay as their leader.

I'm pleased the fence-sitting Lib Dems have got what they deserve - though it would have been better if 'Mr-Shallow' Clegg had got the boot.

And UKIP are on target for >12% of the vote, yet have only 1 seat !!. Something is wrong there. The establishment will be playing that one down ...

And it looks like another push for Scottish independence before too long.

[JDGRUEN]

Late news from the BBC ... LIBDEMS are being routed ... Conservatives benefiting greatly ... Much more ... but not being a Brit - too much intertwining to make sense

[notmyself]

Why Surprising ???

Labour said they were the party of the national health. If you look at their record with the Welsh N/Health service a total disaster.

Then how they left the country's coffers 5 years ago.

I wont go down the two EDD's route.

UKIP now that's a different kettle of fish.

Why I would like to ask is anyone surprised.

Some People have long memories.

I agree it was totally irresponsible of the last Labour government using billions of taxpayers money to bail out the casinos. If anyone invests their money in a casino then they deserve to lose the lot and no government should waste money in rescuing the banks or financial institutions.

Perhaps they felt responsible after removing the oversee committee that was put in place to stop it happening.

[pitrevie]

Why Surprising ???

Labour said they were the party of the national health. If you look at their record with the Welsh N/Health service a total disaster.

Then how they left the country's coffers 5 years ago.

I wont go down the two EDD's route.

UKIP now that's a different kettle of fish.

Why I would like to ask is anyone surprised.

Some People have long memories.

I agree it was totally irresponsible of the last Labour government using billions of taxpayers money to bail out the casinos. If anyone invests their money in a casino then they deserve to lose the lot and no government should waste money in rescuing the banks or financial institutions.

Perhaps they felt responsible after removing the oversee committee that was put in place to stop it happening.

I agree but in fact they were being castigated by the then two prominent opposition leaders of having far too much regulation in place.

George Osborne, 2006

“I want to give you [The City] lower taxes and less regulation.”

Well we all saw where that led "empty coffers"

Edited May 8, 2015 by pitrevie

[peterb17]

Cameron back in No.10 with an overall majority.

Thank God for that- ( of course it depends which God you believe in ) .

To be honest for the majority of expats who depend on decent exchange rates, returns from pension funds and investments this is good news.

[Thai at Heart]

Carnage for Labour.

And Balls gone also.

Outstanding

[teatree]

Lack of a viable alternative means the Tories were bound to win. Lord knows why Labour allowed Milliband-the-muppet to stay as their leader.

I'm pleased the fence-sitting Lib Dems have got what they deserve - though it would have been better if 'Mr-Shallow' Clegg had got the boot.

And UKIP are on target for >12% of the vote, yet have only 1 seat !!. Something is wrong there. The establishment will be playing that one down ...

And it looks like another push for Scottish independence before too long.

UKIP had more than 3 times more votes than the SNP (nearly 4 times actually) yet have only 1 seat compared to SNP's 56 seats.

You are right the establishment is playing all this down. I watched the BBC coverage and there was barely a mention of the glaring unfairness of the current system.

13% of the population vote for a party and they only get 1 seat - something very undemocratic about that.

[brewsterbudgen]

Lack of a viable alternative means the Tories were bound to win. Lord knows why Labour allowed Milliband-the-muppet to stay as their leader.

I'm pleased the fence-sitting Lib Dems have got what they deserve - though it would have been better if 'Mr-Shallow' Clegg had got the boot.

And UKIP are on target for >12% of the vote, yet have only 1 seat !!. Something is wrong there. The establishment will be playing that one down ...

And it looks like another push for Scottish independence before too long.

UKIP had more than 3 times more votes than the SNP (nearly 4 times actually) yet have only 1 seat compared to SNP's 56 seats.

You are right the establishment is playing all this down. I watched the BBC coverage and there was barely a mention of the glaring unfairness of the current system.

13% of the population vote for a party and they only get 1 seat - something very undemocratic about that.

Did you only just realise that we use the FPP system in the UK? Or is it only now important because UKIP are affected? How did you vote in the referendum on changing the voting system?

[cumgranosalum]

Lack of a viable alternative means the Tories were bound to win. Lord knows why Labour allowed Milliband-the-muppet to stay as their leader.

I'm pleased the fence-sitting Lib Dems have got what they deserve - though it would have been better if 'Mr-Shallow' Clegg had got the boot.

And UKIP are on target for >12% of the vote, yet have only 1 seat !!. Something is wrong there. The establishment will be playing that one down ...

And it looks like another push for Scottish independence before too long.

UKIP had more than 3 times more votes than the SNP (nearly 4 times actually) yet have only 1 seat compared to SNP's 56 seats.

You are right the establishment is playing all this down. I watched the BBC coverage and there was barely a mention of the glaring unfairness of the current system.

13% of the population vote for a party and they only get 1 seat - something very undemocratic about that.

possibly the most facile comment so far.....everyone is aware of the FPTP system in UK - it has been running for years - it has always been part of Lib Dem policy to chance this. It does in truth also have benefits for various reasons - e.g. - speed and keeping single issue and crank parties out of the system.

When you make these over simplistic comments about the number of votes cast, you also need to take into account the size and number of constituencies involved the areas they are in and the remaining way that other people voted in each constituency.

there seems to be a trend in this thread to be "wise after the event" - well let me point out that even those who "backed the winner" are not to be regarded any more an expert than someone who by happy good-fortune backed a winner in the National - in this election even the real experts were fooled and simplistic post result statements are just a load of fooie

[teatree]

Lack of a viable alternative means the Tories were bound to win. Lord knows why Labour allowed Milliband-the-muppet to stay as their leader.

I'm pleased the fence-sitting Lib Dems have got what they deserve - though it would have been better if 'Mr-Shallow' Clegg had got the boot.

And UKIP are on target for >12% of the vote, yet have only 1 seat !!. Something is wrong there. The establishment will be playing that one down ...

And it looks like another push for Scottish independence before too long.

UKIP had more than 3 times more votes than the SNP (nearly 4 times actually) yet have only 1 seat compared to SNP's 56 seats.

You are right the establishment is playing all this down. I watched the BBC coverage and there was barely a mention of the glaring unfairness of the current system.

13% of the population vote for a party and they only get 1 seat - something very undemocratic about that.

possibly the most facile comment so far.....everyone is aware of the FPTP system in UK - it has been running for years - it has always been part of Lib Dem policy to chance this. It does in truth also have benefits for various reasons - e.g. - speed and keeping single issue and crank parties out of the system.

When you make these over simplistic comments about the number of votes cast, you also need to take into account the size and number of constituencies involved the areas they are in and the remaining way that other people voted in each constituency.

there seems to be a trend in this thread to be "wise after the event" - well let me point out that even those who "backed the winner" are not to be regarded any more an expert than someone who by happy good-fortune backed a winner in the National - in this election even the real experts were fooled and simplistic post result statements are just a load of fooie

Well, possibly one of the most obvious comments so far, of course we have know about the current bloody system, we have had it since the 19th century!

The point is that the result of this election puts the gross unfairness of the system into sharp focus.

If you are happy with such a large percentage of the population getting such pathetic representation then fine, but don't pretend it's democratic.

[RuamRudy]

Lack of a viable alternative means the Tories were bound to win. Lord knows why Labour allowed Milliband-the-muppet to stay as their leader.

I'm pleased the fence-sitting Lib Dems have got what they deserve - though it would have been better if 'Mr-Shallow' Clegg had got the boot.

And UKIP are on target for >12% of the vote, yet have only 1 seat !!. Something is wrong there. The establishment will be playing that one down ...

And it looks like another push for Scottish independence before too long.

UKIP had more than 3 times more votes than the SNP (nearly 4 times actually) yet have only 1 seat compared to SNP's 56 seats.

You are right the establishment is playing all this down. I watched the BBC coverage and there was barely a mention of the glaring unfairness of the current system.

13% of the population vote for a party and they only get 1 seat - something very undemocratic about that.

possibly the most facile comment so far.....everyone is aware of the FPTP system in UK - it has been running for years - it has always been part of Lib Dem policy to chance this. It does in truth also have benefits for various reasons - e.g. - speed and keeping single issue and crank parties out of the system.

When you make these over simplistic comments about the number of votes cast, you also need to take into account the size and number of constituencies involved the areas they are in and the remaining way that other people voted in each constituency.

there seems to be a trend in this thread to be "wise after the event" - well let me point out that even those who "backed the winner" are not to be regarded any more an expert than someone who by happy good-fortune backed a winner in the National - in this election even the real experts were fooled and simplistic post result statements are just a load of fooie

Well, possibly one of the most obvious comments so far, of course we have know about the current bloody system, we have had it since the 19th century!

The point is that the result of this election puts the gross unfairness of the system into sharp focus.

If you are happy with such a large percentage of the population getting such pathetic representation then fine, but don't pretend it's democratic.

The public had a chance to change the system just a couple of years ago - and chose to retain FPTP. The system may not be 'democratic' but the choosing of it was.

Edited May 9, 2015 by RuamRudy

[cumgranosalum]

Lack of a viable alternative means the Tories were bound to win. Lord knows why Labour allowed Milliband-the-muppet to stay as their leader.

I'm pleased the fence-sitting Lib Dems have got what they deserve - though it would have been better if 'Mr-Shallow' Clegg had got the boot.

And UKIP are on target for >12% of the vote, yet have only 1 seat !!. Something is wrong there. The establishment will be playing that one down ...

And it looks like another push for Scottish independence before too long.

UKIP had more than 3 times more votes than the SNP (nearly 4 times actually) yet have only 1 seat compared to SNP's 56 seats.

You are right the establishment is playing all this down. I watched the BBC coverage and there was barely a mention of the glaring unfairness of the current system.

13% of the population vote for a party and they only get 1 seat - something very undemocratic about that.

possibly the most facile comment so far.....everyone is aware of the FPTP system in UK - it has been running for years - it has always been part of Lib Dem policy to chance this. It does in truth also have benefits for various reasons - e.g. - speed and keeping single issue and crank parties out of the system.

When you make these over simplistic comments about the number of votes cast, you also need to take into account the size and number of constituencies involved the areas they are in and the remaining way that other people voted in each constituency.

there seems to be a trend in this thread to be "wise after the event" - well let me point out that even those who "backed the winner" are not to be regarded any more an expert than someone who by happy good-fortune backed a winner in the National - in this election even the real experts were fooled and simplistic post result statements are just a load of fooie

Well, possibly one of the most obvious comments so far, of course we have know about the current bloody system, we have had it since the 19th century!

The point is that the result of this election puts the gross unfairness of the system into sharp focus.

If you are happy with such a large percentage of the population getting such pathetic representation then fine, but don't pretend it's democratic.

"If you are happy with such a large percentage of the population getting such pathetic representation then fine, but don't pretend it's democratic." - you need to read up on democracy .....

[cumgranosalum]

Lack of a viable alternative means the Tories were bound to win. Lord knows why Labour allowed Milliband-the-muppet to stay as their leader.

I'm pleased the fence-sitting Lib Dems have got what they deserve - though it would have been better if 'Mr-Shallow' Clegg had got the boot.

And UKIP are on target for >12% of the vote, yet have only 1 seat !!. Something is wrong there. The establishment will be playing that one down ...

And it looks like another push for Scottish independence before too long.

UKIP had more than 3 times more votes than the SNP (nearly 4 times actually) yet have only 1 seat compared to SNP's 56 seats.

You are right the establishment is playing all this down. I watched the BBC coverage and there was barely a mention of the glaring unfairness of the current system.

13% of the population vote for a party and they only get 1 seat - something very undemocratic about that.

possibly the most facile comment so far.....everyone is aware of the FPTP system in UK - it has been running for years - it has always been part of Lib Dem policy to chance this. It does in truth also have benefits for various reasons - e.g. - speed and keeping single issue and crank parties out of the system.

When you make these over simplistic comments about the number of votes cast, you also need to take into account the size and number of constituencies involved the areas they are in and the remaining way that other people voted in each constituency.

there seems to be a trend in this thread to be "wise after the event" - well let me point out that even those who "backed the winner" are not to be regarded any more an expert than someone who by happy good-fortune backed a winner in the National - in this election even the real experts were fooled and simplistic post result statements are just a load of fooie

Well, possibly one of the most obvious comments so far, of course we have know about the current bloody system, we have had it since the 19th century!

The point is that the result of this election puts the gross unfairness of the system into sharp focus.

If you are happy with such a large percentage of the population getting such pathetic representation then fine, but don't pretend it's democratic.

you appear to be criticising yourself?

" I watched the BBC coverage and there was barely a mention of the glaring unfairness of the current system."

Edited May 9, 2015 by cumgranosalum