Baht unlikely to slide below 35/$

[lostoday]

Slides below 35 tomorrow morning. If Nation want hire me PM before noon.

[lostoday]

Slides below 35 tomorrow morning. If Nation want hire me PM before noon.

Apologies, I was wrong. It only got to 34.98

[Naam]

I always believed that the gold price was set by the world market. Interesting it has gone down 3.2% in Thailand, and 4.5% everywhere else. Would this not be called "price-fixing"? Why would you buy gold here, if it is above the market in the rest of the world?

gold in Thailand is sold at exactly the world market price (see below) with the advantage that bid/ask (buy/sell) difference is lower in Thailand.

some people arrive at wrong assumptions, respectively calculations because they compare apples with oranges by not taking the different currencies in which gold is quoted into consideration.

example:

-the selling price of 1 Baht weight is today THB 18,200

-world market price of gold per Troy ounce USD 1,099.50

-one Troy ounce of gold is the equivalent of ~2.0438 Baht weights

-the mid exchange rate US-Dollar/Thai Baht today is 34.89

18200 : 34.89 = $521.64 x 2.0438 = $1,066.12 x 1.0363 (Thai gold purity only 96.5%) = $1,105 minus goldshop margin = $1,099.50 = difference zero!

this lesson is free of charge although i have wasted at least 5 minutes of my precious time.

Maybe we can petition the education ministry to hire you as a math tutor for the school program here. I would love to see the average 6th grader tackle a math problem like this one. Nice work.

math problem? i beg to differ. it's utmost simple arithmetic using the four basic methods, namely multiplication, division, addition and subtraction.

[spidermike007]

Wait a minute. Aren't these the same people who predicted the Thai baht would hover around 32 to a dollar just two years ago? Should we consider their opinions credible? The baht is knocking on that door of 35. I predict it will drop down a bit more.

Edited July 29, 2015 by spidermike007

[Chivas]

Wait a minute. Aren't these the same people who predicted the Thai baht would hover around 32 to a dollar just two years ago? Should we consider their opinions credible? The baht is knocking on that door of 35. I predict it will drop down a bit more.

Bouncing off 34.95 currently.......Suspect when it breaks through we go to 36 fairly quickly

[chiang mai]

Wait a minute. Aren't these the same people who predicted the Thai baht would hover around 32 to a dollar just two years ago? Should we consider their opinions credible? The baht is knocking on that door of 35. I predict it will drop down a bit more.

Exactly how long do you think a currency forecast is good for, if everything remained constant then it would last forever, sadly/thankfully things change hence the forecasts need to be changed and that's exactly what has just happened.

[Pattaya46]

Bouncing off 34.95 currently.......Suspect when it breaks through we go to 36 fairly quickly

35B/$ limit broken today

[Chivas]

35.15 live price at time of Post.....

[Time Traveller]

Sinking ship? Or maybe its the market anticipating an RMB devaluation?

[Naam]

[topt]

Sinking ship? Or maybe its the market anticipating an RMB devaluation?

Maybe just a small reaction to the news from the US yesterday (early this morning Thai time) plus there is some further US Q2 growth results due later today which are expected to be positive.

[Naam]

Sinking ship? Or maybe its the market anticipating an RMB devaluation?

"devaluation"... is this a joke?

[lostoday]

Slides below 35 tomorrow morning. If Nation want hire me PM before noon.

I wanted to let everyone know that the Nation did not offer me a job.

[lostoday]

Just to sum up the Nation said the baht would not slide to 35 and It's now 35.25 and the price of gold in Thailand is not the same as the world price of gold.

I'm still sitting here waiting for the Nation to call. You want to see a stronger baht? i'll get you there in a NY minute. Or a weaker baht no problem I'm flexible. I'm still waiting.

[DanceAllNight]

its now around 35...any chance it goes to 40 to the USD?

[sandyf]

Sinking ship? Or maybe its the market anticipating an RMB devaluation?

"devaluation"... is this a joke?

Big question, The US have claimed for years that the Yuan is undervalued,any chance of them being wrong.

[Naam]

Sinking ship? Or maybe its the market anticipating an RMB devaluation?

"devaluation"... is this a joke?

Big question, The US have claimed for years that the Yuan is undervalued,any chance of them being wrong.

the complaints are getting less nowadays. one can hear the first "experts" commenting "USD/CNY exchange rate has reached an acceptable and fair level".

[sandyf]

Sinking ship? Or maybe its the market anticipating an RMB devaluation?

"devaluation"... is this a joke?

Big question, The US have claimed for years that the Yuan is undervalued,any chance of them being wrong.

the complaints are getting less nowadays. one can hear the first "experts" commenting "USD/CNY exchange rate has reached an acceptable and fair level".

Quite right. My comment was rhetorical. An acceptable and fair level would on the surface rule out a movement in either direction. However I think they are odds on to be included in the SDR which would strengthen the Yuan quite significantly.

As you pointed out devaluation is a bit far fetched.

[Naam]

Big question, The US have claimed for years that the Yuan is undervalued,any chance of them being wrong.

the complaints are getting less nowadays. one can hear the first "experts" commenting "USD/CNY exchange rate has reached an acceptable and fair level".

Quite right. My comment was rhetorical. An acceptable and fair level would on the surface rule out a movement in either direction. However I think they are odds on to be included in the SDR which would strengthen the Yuan quite significantly.

As you pointed out devaluation is a bit far fetched.

being included in the SDR basket is in my opinion a done deal. but i doubt it will make any impact on the exchange rate. most probably we'll know by the end of this year.

for the record: some people do not differentiate but mix up "reserve currency" and "part of the SDR basket". these are two completely different animals!

[sandyf]

Big question, The US have claimed for years that the Yuan is undervalued,any chance of them being wrong.

the complaints are getting less nowadays. one can hear the first "experts" commenting "USD/CNY exchange rate has reached an acceptable and fair level".

Quite right. My comment was rhetorical. An acceptable and fair level would on the surface rule out a movement in either direction. However I think they are odds on to be included in the SDR which would strengthen the Yuan quite significantly.

As you pointed out devaluation is a bit far fetched.

being included in the SDR basket is in my opinion a done deal. but i doubt it will make any impact on the exchange rate. most probably we'll know by the end of this year.

for the record: some people do not differentiate but mix up "reserve currency" and "part of the SDR basket". these are two completely different animals!

Exactly, I have seen many articles that talk of the Yuan being the 5th reserve currency, they do not seem to realise that there already 7 reserve currencies, AUD & CAD being the most recent, CNY would be the 8th if it reaches that status. It all depends on the IMF, they may view being listed in COFER as a requirement for SDR inclusion.

I really hope that you are right on the exchange rate, my niece is at university in China so the costs go up as the Yuan strengthens.

[Naam]

Quite right. My comment was rhetorical. An acceptable and fair level would on the surface rule out a movement in either direction. However I think they are odds on to be included in the SDR which would strengthen the Yuan quite significantly.

As you pointed out devaluation is a bit far fetched.

being included in the SDR basket is in my opinion a done deal. but i doubt it will make any impact on the exchange rate. most probably we'll know by the end of this year.

for the record: some people do not differentiate but mix up "reserve currency" and "part of the SDR basket". these are two completely different animals!

Exactly, I have seen many articles that talk of the Yuan being the 5th reserve currency, they do not seem to realise that there already 7 reserve currencies, AUD & CAD being the most recent, CNY would be the 8th if it reaches that status. It all depends on the IMF, they may view being listed in COFER as a requirement for SDR inclusion.

I really hope that you are right on the exchange rate, my niece is at university in China so the costs go up as the Yuan strengthens.

that information is incorrect because SDRs comprise neither AUD nor CAD. the key currencies USD, €UR, GBP and ¥EN have not [yet] been changed.

[sandyf]

Quite right. My comment was rhetorical. An acceptable and fair level would on the surface rule out a movement in either direction. However I think they are odds on to be included in the SDR which would strengthen the Yuan quite significantly.

As you pointed out devaluation is a bit far fetched.

being included in the SDR basket is in my opinion a done deal. but i doubt it will make any impact on the exchange rate. most probably we'll know by the end of this year.

for the record: some people do not differentiate but mix up "reserve currency" and "part of the SDR basket". these are two completely different animals!

Exactly, I have seen many articles that talk of the Yuan being the 5th reserve currency, they do not seem to realise that there already 7 reserve currencies, AUD & CAD being the most recent, CNY would be the 8th if it reaches that status. It all depends on the IMF, they may view being listed in COFER as a requirement for SDR inclusion.

I really hope that you are right on the exchange rate, my niece is at university in China so the costs go up as the Yuan strengthens.

that information is incorrect because SDRs comprise neither AUD nor CAD. the key currencies USD, €UR, GBP and ¥EN have not [yet] been changed.

You have misread me, I did not say they were, I said there were 7 reserve currencies in COFER(Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves)

, and the AUD and CAD were the last additions about 2 years ago. Apart from the 4 SDR currencies the other currency listed in COFER is CHF.

[Gecko123]

I think a lot is going to depend on the US employment report this Friday. If the number is weak, and forecasts about when the Fed is going to hike short term rates start getting pushed further into the future, the strengthening of the dollar could significantly unwind. However, if the jobs number happens to be a gangbuster , making it almost certain that the Fed will hike (and likely hike again in near future), I could easily see the baht weakening into the 36-36.5 range in next 3-6 months.

My guess though is that the US economy (due to strengthening dollar, toppiness in the stock market, and weakness in the Chinese and other emerging market economies) may be hitting a dodgy soft patch, and the dollar strength may reverse course short term.

Edited August 2, 2015 by Gecko123

[Naam]

You have misread me, I did not say they were, I said there were 7 reserve currencies in COFER (Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves) , and the AUD and CAD were the last additions about 2 years ago. Apart from the 4 SDR currencies the other currency listed in COFER is CHF.

COFER is, for practical or currency evaluation purposes, a rather irrelevant collection of data by the IMF. other currencies are included too but not individually identified.

[pokerface1]

is there someway to trade currencies and make a profit for living expenses from a no fee site like maybe xe.com? I'm not sure what the mathematical equations are that might be useful in currency predictions

Paying fees is the last thing you should worry about. If your able to make a profit in currency trading be happy to pay a small fee to your broker. Often it's not that difficult to predict the general direction of the currency pair, what is more difficult is managing the position once you enter the market so you need to have a plan on action that you will take under various scenarios that your trade may come up against.

Many of the trading platform have software that can be used in order to give signals on when to buy and when to sell in fact you can even choose to have your trading fully automated if you so desire.

You can start trading with as little as $100 if you like and use leverage of up to 200:1 to increase your position size.

However I would suggest starting off with at least $1000 so as to make a reasonable return on your investment.

[Time Traveller]

Sinking ship? Or maybe its the market anticipating an RMB devaluation?

"devaluation"... is this a joke?

No.

If pressure on the Chinese export sector becomes too much, then yes, the Chinese will devalue. Their trade surpluses mean nothing. What does matter is their exporters. Currently the RMB is fixed to an appreciating US dollar. The result is exporters are under much more competition with other countries who currencies are suddenly cheaper.

Also devaluing may slow the rate of capital outflow from China as well. If you haven't noticed, Chinese foriegn exchange reserves have been falling recently despite large monthly trade surpluses.

Edited August 2, 2015 by Time Traveller

[alanrchase]

is there someway to trade currencies and make a profit for living expenses from a no fee site like maybe xe.com? I'm not sure what the mathematical equations are that might be useful in currency predictions

Paying fees is the last thing you should worry about. If your able to make a profit in currency trading be happy to pay a small fee to your broker. Often it's not that difficult to predict the general direction of the currency pair, what is more difficult is managing the position once you enter the market so you need to have a plan on action that you will take under various scenarios that your trade may come up against.

Many of the trading platform have software that can be used in order to give signals on when to buy and when to sell in fact you can even choose to have your trading fully automated if you so desire.

You can start trading with as little as $100 if you like and use leverage of up to 200:1 to increase your position size.

However I would suggest starting off with at least $1000 so as to make a reasonable return on your investment.

Paying fees is the first thing you should worry about in my opinion.

[fish fingers]

General turmoil in asia and 'only way is up' in some parts of europe at least.. I can see 56 baht to the pound quite soon, first time since 2009..

[Time Traveller]

Big question, The US have claimed for years that the Yuan is undervalued,any chance of them being wrong.

the complaints are getting less nowadays. one can hear the first "experts" commenting "USD/CNY exchange rate has reached an acceptable and fair level".

Quite right. My comment was rhetorical. An acceptable and fair level would on the surface rule out a movement in either direction. However I think they are odds on to be included in the SDR which would strengthen the Yuan quite significantly.

As you pointed out devaluation is a bit far fetched.

being included in the SDR basket is in my opinion a done deal. but i doubt it will make any impact on the exchange rate. most probably we'll know by the end of this year.

for the record: some people do not differentiate but mix up "reserve currency" and "part of the SDR basket". these are two completely different animals!

You guys really left me laughing at your comments.....it's like you're living in a parallel universe or something.

Anyway, not sure how they do things on Klingon - I guess by brutal force? - but here on Earth, only freely traded currencies will ever get to have "reserve currency" status....there is no way in 100 years the Chinese Communist party will ever forgo their iron grip control of their currency. So there will be ZERO chance that the RMB will become a reserve currency. And what's the point anyway, it's basically fixed to the Dollar. They can't unfix it either because their exporters won't be able to cope with fluctuating exchange rates. Also, China facing a growth slowdown will never allow it's currency to appreciate. So appreciation is more far fetched thed than a devaluation.

Naam, just stick to being the "muscle" and leave the thinking to the humans

Edited August 3, 2015 by Time Traveller

[Naam]

the complaints are getting less nowadays. one can hear the first "experts" commenting "USD/CNY exchange rate has reached an acceptable and fair level".

Quite right. My comment was rhetorical. An acceptable and fair level would on the surface rule out a movement in either direction. However I think they are odds on to be included in the SDR which would strengthen the Yuan quite significantly.

As you pointed out devaluation is a bit far fetched.

being included in the SDR basket is in my opinion a done deal. but i doubt it will make any impact on the exchange rate. most probably we'll know by the end of this year.

for the record: some people do not differentiate but mix up "reserve currency" and "part of the SDR basket". these are two completely different animals!

You guys really left me laughing at your comments.....it's like you're living in a parallel universe or something.

Anyway, not sure how they do things on Klingon - I guess by brutal force? - but here on Earth, only freely traded currencies will ever get to have "reserve currency" status....there is no way in 100 years the Chinese Communist party will ever forgo their iron grip control of their currency. So there will be ZERO chance that the RMB will become a reserve currency. And what's the point anyway, it's basically fixed to the Dollar. They can't unfix it either because their exporters won't be able to cope with fluctuating exchange rates. Also, China facing a growth slowdown will never allow it's currency to appreciate. So appreciation is more far fetched thed than a devaluation.

Naam, just stick to being the "muscle" and leave the thinking to the humans

i suggest you look for your reading glasses and then find out that i absolutely agree with your "zero chance to become a reserve currency"

wrong is your statement "...will never allow to appreciate" because CNY was allowed to appreciate. reading glasses are not required to read this chart which clearly shows a 24.90% appreciation vs. USD without the "fix" you claim to exist.

you should also inform yourself that SDR currencies are not reserve currencies.

next intelligent eggsburt remark please