Thailand's generals don't have an economic plan

[webfact]

Thailand's Generals Don't Have an Economic Plan
By William Pesek

BANGKOK: -- Militaries tend to justify coups d'etat by making assurances of political competence: The previous government failed the people, and military technocrats will now restore order, cleanse the system and get big things done.

The generals who seized power in Thailand in May 2014, however, have essentially abdicated that argument. To be sure, Prayuth Chan-Ocha and his fellow officers pledged to restore political calm, end corruption and bring happiness to tens of millions not benefiting from $373 billion of annual output. But 440 days on, Prayuth's regime has only made things worse.

Thailand's growth is the slowest among developing nations, its exports may contract 4 percent this year and Bangkok is the only major Asian stock market experiencing outflows. The currency is down 7 percent in six months. Thailand's new regime has learned the hard way that running Southeast Asia's second-biggest economy isn't as easy its officials once thought.

Prayuth's main problem is that he lacks an economic strategy. He and his team are so preoccupied micro-managing small-scale public order issues (like banning alcohol sales near schools) that they're neglecting the big picture.

Full story: http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-08-04/thailand-s-generals-don-t-have-an-economic-plan

-- BloombergView 2015-08-05

[NongKhaiKid]

Only an economic plan ?

[z42]

Last 2 sentences bang on the money

[BSJ]

Well, the economy can't be all the governments fault....so lets get on with ordering more trains and submarines shall we. And what about a payrise for our hardworking military government.

[ramrod711]

I'm not sure whether not having a plan is worse than having an idiotic plan, like say, the rice scheme. Neither one is good, that's for sure. The baht had to fall anyway, in this global race to the bottom of an economy, where corporations move to the next third world country because of lower wages, the 300 baht minimum wage is sadly, "too high".

[Ace of Pop]

Why not let Branson run it under a Virgin Thailand banner.

[rijb]

They have an economic plan... for themselves.

[ChrisY1]

Why not let Branson run it under a Virgin Thailand banner.

If Branson ran the place, he'd shut it down !

[lovelomsak]

They donot need an economic plan. That is needed when the government is elected, he has the most and biggest guns so economics can be forgotten.

Edited August 5, 2015 by lovelomsak

[BigBadGeordie]

Well DjJamie et al, please respond!!!!

I found the last para. in the full article most interesting,

When you seize power, though, it's best to have a plan. The chronic drift and uncertainty of the last 14 months is breeding a lack of trust from the trading floors of New York to the night markets of Bangkok. It's undermining growth, deepening poverty and increasing the odds Thailand will experience a lost decade. And as the government's economic argument loses force, the only authority it will have left is its force of arms.

[ezzra]

Prayuth's main problem is that he lacks an economic strategy. He and his team are so preoccupied micro-managing small-scale public order issues (like banning alcohol sales near schools) that they're neglecting the big picture.

Exactly what I was saying for a while now, every day you read the news you see the PM name popping up

in regards to the most mandarin and trivial items that he has no business doing or even concern himself with,

but the need to be up front and show himself as the kind and benevolent new father of the nation...

[bamnutsak]

I think everyone is shocked, shocked to find out the coup leaders are incapable of governing a country. Surely this has never happened before?

[Somtamnication]

Generals always have an economic plan. It's just that it is not made public!

[lildragon]

As I said in the other thread, what do a bunch of generals know about economics anyway?

I bet the sycophants will be in here blaming Thaksin in a minute

[ikke]

There is no dictatorship in the world that has a good running economical plan (except maybe oil producing countries)

The Generals where trained for the army (a money consuming society) and never learned about economics.

Second is the greed for power and populism, they are only doing things that reach the news to become popular.

Since Suthep ever started his demonstrations , the economy declined fast and after the coup even faster, and as long there is no democratic elected government , the economy will not restore.

[jonclark]

For me the shocking stat in the bloomberg piecel was that the "shadow economy equals about 40.9% of GDP for 2014'.

[zaphod reborn]

The real problem is that the junta didn't get the stimulus plan kick-started. The government is still lagging far behind in actually funding stimulus programs. It's the same failure that plagued the Obama administration when Obama first took office. It took Obama 5 years to get the US economy back on track. Government officials don't really understand shovel-ready project planning. Infrastructure projects, such as roadway repair, flood control and water management, power grid improvements, farm equipment subsidies, sanitation improvement, and construction of low-income housing add quick stimulus and don't have long lead times for planning which delays the commencement of construction. Instead, just like Obama, Prayuth's government focused on long-term projects like railways, and not real shovel-ready projects.

[bamnutsak]

On the plus side, they seemed to have planned and rehearsed the Bike event quite well.

[WitawatWatawit]

For me the shocking stat in the bloomberg piecel was that the "shadow economy equals about 40.9% of GDP for 2014'.

With GDP being in the order of 12 trillion baht (very rough figures), that's an awful lot of money not being taxed and put back into circulation for the overall benefit of the country.

[soalbundy]

I'm alright with anything that brings the Baht down

[tomacht8]

For me the shocking stat in the bloomberg piecel was that the "shadow economy equals about 40.9% of GDP for 2014'.

The country's leadership is unfortunately very short-sighted and engaged in many trivialities.

But with a corrupt, crumbling authority structure, it is also difficult, as long as it is not eliminated.

Bribes demanded by public officials and the mafia are increasing under the junta, particularly in Bangkok’s red-light districts.

“Thailand’s shadow economy ranks globally among the highest,” says economist Friedrich Schneider.

[Ace of Pop]

Thaksin was some sort of Rank,he feathered his Family Nest quite well

[MrJohnson]

The generals are rapidly learning that running a country is very different to running an army. They need to get the charter done and hold an election, but most people realize that is not going to happen until.........

[Thailand]

The generals are rapidly learning that running a country is very different to running an army. They need to get the charter done and hold an election, but most people realize that is not going to happen until.........

And what successes have the Thai military had prior to taking over the country - again.

Coups seem to be at the top of their minuscule achievements list.

[ggt]

Take an unelected military government who makes promises of a democratic election and keeps moving the target date forward...add a lack of leadership as the Thai economy and baht falters...and you have the recipe for civil unrest...could get nasty...IMHO

[MrJohnson]

The generals are rapidly learning that running a country is very different to running an army. They need to get the charter done and hold an election, but most people realize that is not going to happen until.........

And what successes have the Thai military had prior to taking over the country - again.

Coups seem to be at the top of their minuscule achievements list.

I am certainly not suggesting that the Thai military have had any successes at all. Aside from the odd skirmish with their Khmer and Burmese neighbors the army has not seen terribly much action for quite some time. I'm not sure how so many of them ended up with all those medals dripping off their uniforms but that is perhaps another matter. My point is that you cannot run/manage a country the way you run/manage an army.

It is ironic that Thailand is on a trajectory similar to that which preceded the army takeover in Myanmar all those years ago. It is entirely conceivable that Thailand could go down a similar path - IMHO.

[emilymat]

I think everyone is shocked, shocked to find out the coup leaders are incapable of governing a country. Surely this has never happened before?

..and he was taking his orders from the Germans, a bit like Greece.!

[PatOngo]

The generals are rapidly learning that running a country is very different to running an army. They need to get the charter done and hold an election, but most people realize that is not going to happen until.........

And what successes have the Thai military had prior to taking over the country - again.

Coups seem to be at the top of their minuscule achievements list.

They wrestled Ayuthaya back from the Burmese..........oh wait!..........that was a while back.

[Ace of Pop]

Is there a difference between a Bribed Electorate in Thaksins case,and an Unelected one.?. Neither is Democratic to me.

[zig]

There is no dictatorship in the world that has a good running economical plan (except maybe oil producing countries)

The Generals where trained for the army (a money consuming society) and never learned about economics.

Second is the greed for power and populism, they are only doing things that reach the news to become popular.

Since Suthep ever started his demonstrations , the economy declined fast and after the coup even faster, and as long there is no democratic elected government , the economy will not restore.

There have been known exceptions, e.g. Chile under Pinochet did quite good economically although one can argue that it is because they had a good team of economists working for them.