Thailand's generals don't have an economic plan

[ginjag]

Only an economic plan ?

NOT JUST the army you guys, how do you pay off a bank loan without enough income ?? World economic crisis as now let us know how you would cope after a trillion ?? baht gone from the coffers over the 3 years of PTP. Not defending the army--as no one can recover it fast.

[jonclark]

For me the shocking stat in the bloomberg piecel was that the "shadow economy equals about 40.9% of GDP for 2014'.

With GDP being in the order of 12 trillion baht (very rough figures), that's an awful lot of money not being taxed and put back into circulation for the overall benefit of the country.

And that's a lot of money in the hands of god knows who.... possibly to be used to ahem..... 'lobby' politicians and pay the masses if required. Just a thought, because i bet it ain't all being spent on necklaces and Ferrari's.

[dageurreotype]

For me the shocking stat in the bloomberg piecel was that the "shadow economy equals about 40.9% of GDP for 2014'.

Shocked me too, I thought it'd be more than that.

[Thailand]

Only an economic plan ?

NOT JUST the army you guys, how do you pay off a bank loan without enough income ?? World economic crisis as now let us know how you would cope after a trillion ?? baht gone from the coffers over the 3 years of PTP. Not defending the army--as no one can recover it fast.

Is that you djamie?

[ddavidovsky]

The generals are rapidly learning that running a country is very different to running an army. They need to get the charter done and hold an election, but most people realize that is not going to happen until.........

And what successes have the Thai military had prior to taking over the country - again.

Coups seem to be at the top of their minuscule achievements list.

I am certainly not suggesting that the Thai military have had any successes at all. Aside from the odd skirmish with their Khmer and Burmese neighbors the army has not seen terribly much action for quite some time. I'm not sure how so many of them ended up with all those medals dripping off their uniforms but that is perhaps another matter. My point is that you cannot run/manage a country the way you run/manage an army.

It is ironic that Thailand is on a trajectory similar to that which preceded the army takeover in Myanmar all those years ago. It is entirely conceivable that Thailand could go down a similar path - IMHO.

The need to keep up tourist revenue should prevent the country from going too far down the Burma line. Mass tourism is hardly compatible with a closed society - fortunately for everyone.

Economics is the safety valve that brings inept systems down eventually. Worth noting that Thaksinomics was very successful - strong GDP growth throughout. If the economy gets any worse, they'll have to bring him back to sort it out. A bit like Mourinho at Chelsea.

[SOUTHERNSTAR]

Only an economic plan ?

NOT JUST the army you guys, how do you pay off a bank loan without enough income ?? World economic crisis as now let us know how you would cope after a trillion ?? baht gone from the coffers over the 3 years of PTP. Not defending the army--as no one can recover it fast.

Please show us the calculation how you get to a trillion ? If I remember correctly most of the rice is in stock and with the drought at hand it may just be that the rice scheme will prevent the country from hunger, so be very carefull of your wild inaccurate statements. If you buy something for B 1 trillion and have the product in stock the income derived from the sale of this product must first be deducted from the purchase price before you get to a profit/loss figure. What you are doing is to take the purchase price as the profit/loss figure. Hope you dont run a business or plan to do so in future.

[Thailand]

The generals are rapidly learning that running a country is very different to running an army. They need to get the charter done and hold an election, but most people realize that is not going to happen until.........

And what successes have the Thai military had prior to taking over the country - again.

Coups seem to be at the top of their minuscule achievements list.

I am certainly not suggesting that the Thai military have had any successes at all. Aside from the odd skirmish with their Khmer and Burmese neighbors the army has not seen terribly much action for quite some time. I'm not sure how so many of them ended up with all those medals dripping off their uniforms but that is perhaps another matter. My point is that you cannot run/manage a country the way you run/manage an army.

It is ironic that Thailand is on a trajectory similar to that which preceded the army takeover in Myanmar all those years ago. It is entirely conceivable that Thailand could go down a similar path - IMHO.

The need to keep up tourist revenue should prevent the country from going too far down the Burma line. Mass tourism is hardly compatible with a closed society - fortunately for everyone.

Economics is the safety valve that brings inept systems down eventually. Worth noting that Thaksinomics was very successful - strong GDP growth throughout. If the economy gets any worse, they'll have to bring him back to sort it out. A bit like Mourinho at Chelsea.

Maybe not Thaksin but a person with the business aptitude he displayed (Even with his fingers too deep in the till), sadly there does not seem to be that person around at the moment and certainly not in the military.

[JAG]

Only an economic plan ?

NOT JUST the army you guys, how do you pay off a bank loan without enough income ?? World economic crisis as now let us know how you would cope after a trillion ?? baht gone from the coffers over the 3 years of PTP. Not defending the army--as no one can recover it fast.

Please show us the calculation how you get to a trillion ? If I remember correctly most of the rice is in stock and with the drought at hand it may just be that the rice scheme will prevent the country from hunger, so be very carefull of your wild inaccurate statements. If you buy something for B 1 trillion and have the product in stock the income derived from the sale of this product must first be deducted from the purchase price before you get to a profit/loss figure. What you are doing is to take the purchase price as the profit/loss figure. Hope you dont run a business or plan to do so in future.

Look here, this is an allegation against either a: Thaksin, b: Yingluck or c: Pheu-Thai. This allegation has been posted on TVF. It therefore is a fact, or as it should more properly said, ....FACT.....!

Therefore there's a is no need for any supporting evidence, you should know better than to question it, it just shows the degree to which the evil reds have laundered your intellect! Shame on you.

[Nobb]

They can not think of a way to get rich like the generals before them with out going to jail!

[Baerboxer]

As I said in the other thread, what do a bunch of generals know about economics anyway?

I bet the sycophants will be in here blaming Thaksin in a minute

Without stating the obvious, very little probably. Unless economics, basic, intermediate, and advanced are in some way included in the military training academy courses. Or unless they have undertook some form of education or related qualification.

Would economists automatically make good generals?

Having said that it seems senior military and police officers manage to build up vast wealth through shrewd investments and financial acumen - so perhaps the do have an "understanding"

[Thai at Heart]

As I said in the other thread, what do a bunch of generals know about economics anyway?

I bet the sycophants will be in here blaming Thaksin in a minute

Without stating the obvious, very little probably. Unless economics, basic, intermediate, and advanced are in some way included in the military training academy courses. Or unless they have undertook some form of education or related qualification.

Would economists automatically make good generals?

Having said that it seems senior military and police officers manage to build up vast wealth through shrewd investments and financial acumen - so perhaps the do have an "understanding"

Ironically, one could question whether Thailand's generals make good soldiers even. They seem far more ambitious politically.

[heybruce]

For those who didn't bother to read the full article, I'll post the final two paragraphs. They're worth reading and considering:

"Prayuth also must set a clear timetable for relinquishing power. That's a necessary first step to restoring confidence in the economy; investors tend to look askance at permanent military takeovers. Yet the junta hasn't even finalized a new constitution it says is required to allow Thais to cast ballots again. It is increasingly apparent that its talk of reform before elections is just a delaying tactic. The public would be forgiven for concluding the coup wasn't about improving the lives of average Thais but grabbing power for power's sake."

"When you seize power, though, it's best to have a plan. The chronic drift and uncertainty of the last 14 months is breeding a lack of trust from the trading floors of New York to the night markets of Bangkok. It's undermining growth, deepening poverty and increasing the odds Thailand will experience a lost decade. And as the government's economic argument loses force, the only authority it will have left is its force of arms."

[elgordo38]

I'm not sure whether not having a plan is worse than having an idiotic plan, like say, the rice scheme. Neither one is good, that's for sure. The baht had to fall anyway, in this global race to the bottom of an economy, where corporations move to the next third world country because of lower wages, the 300 baht minimum wage is sadly, "too high".

After North American workers have been flogged by NAFTA and the upcoming TPP and God knows what other tricks Obama has up his sleeve to make his one person enduring legacy at the expense of workers. An emperor with no clothes. As stated in the bible these are the 7 lean years and I think they have arrived for the Western economies. Money Merchants have fled the scene for greener pastures thanks to having the government in their hip pocket. They have rolled up the manufacturing carpet and taken it all abroad. The train wreck they have left behind will take years to sort out. It will only sort out when the American worker "comes to his senses" and works for Asian wages for a level slavery playing field. Ever since child labor was outlawed Big Business had to come up with a new game plan. Wages/benefits have to be starved/watered down before business becomes viable again in the West and even that viability is in danger with the rapid progress being made in robotics. I predict in the near future workers will be on the outside looking in at robots working 24/7 for the price of electricity to run them. The Kochs and their ilk will revel in this as they will finally have their "American" dream. The future at this point will either be a Soylent Green solution or a French Revolution outcome. As people have become complacent I lean towards the first solution.

[Bluespunk]

"Thailand's Generals Don't Have an Economic Plan"

Who does these days?

[bamnutsak]

When you seize power, though, it's best to have a plan.

Op-ed writers can be "demanding"?

Well if you are take Field Marshall Prayut at his word, he didn't really have a plan, nor any intention to stage a coup until the he said, "Sorry, I must seize power". After that, he was just winging it.

On May 22, 2014, "General Prayut eventually said to Minister of Justice Chaikasem Nitisiri who led the government representatives: "The talk knows no end because you all only speak about the law. [...] The government insists that it won't resign, right?" Chaikasem replied: "Not at this moment". General Prayut then told the meeting that "Sorry, I must seize power"[31][32] and ordered the detention of the cabinet members as well as the leaders of the PDRC, Red Shirts and political parties who attended the talk, much to the dismay of the media representatives who were also present."

[JAG]

As I said in the other thread, what do a bunch of generals know about economics anyway?

I bet the sycophants will be in here blaming Thaksin in a minute

Without stating the obvious, very little probably. Unless economics, basic, intermediate, and advanced are in some way included in the military training academy courses. Or unless they have undertook some form of education or related qualification.

Would economists automatically make good generals?

Having said that it seems senior military and police officers manage to build up vast wealth through shrewd investments and financial acumen - so perhaps the do have an "understanding"

Well since sooner or later, on a regular basis, they make themselves the government there may well be a case for teaching them economics at the military academy.

Mind you, judging by the army's performance in the south, tactics and leadership aren't on the syllabus either!

I think it stops at wearing a tight uniform and polishing shoes.

[JAG]

When you seize power, though, it's best to have a plan.

Op-ed writers can be "demanding"?

Well if you are take Field Marshall Prayut at his word, he didn't really have a plan, nor any intention to stage a coup until the he said, "Sorry, I must seize power". After that, he was just winging it.

On May 22, 2014, "General Prayut eventually said to Minister of Justice Chaikasem Nitisiri who led the government representatives: "The talk knows no end because you all only speak about the law. [...] The government insists that it won't resign, right?" Chaikasem replied: "Not at this moment". General Prayut then told the meeting that "Sorry, I must seize power"[31][32] and ordered the detention of the cabinet members as well as the leaders of the PDRC, Red Shirts and political parties who attended the talk, much to the dismay of the media representatives who were also present."

He just happened by pure coincidence, to have all the right people in all the right places, with all the right kit, knowledge and orders, just ready to go. That is one impressive cuff he read it off!

[Rancid]

So what country exactly does have an economic plan? By that I mean one that actually helps the country and the majority of the population as opposed to the usual oligarchy hierachy. Seems to be a lot of confusion about the real function of government as opposed to democratic fantasies that even the ancient Greeks debunked as unworkable.

[tbthailand]

For those who didn't bother to read the full article, I'll post the final two paragraphs. They're worth reading and considering:

"Prayuth also must set a clear timetable for relinquishing power. That's a necessary first step to restoring confidence in the economy; investors tend to look askance at permanent military takeovers. Yet the junta hasn't even finalized a new constitution it says is required to allow Thais to cast ballots again. It is increasingly apparent that its talk of reform before elections is just a delaying tactic. The public would be forgiven for concluding the coup wasn't about improving the lives of average Thais but grabbing power for power's sake."

"When you seize power, though, it's best to have a plan. The chronic drift and uncertainty of the last 14 months is breeding a lack of trust from the trading floors of New York to the night markets of Bangkok. It's undermining growth, deepening poverty and increasing the odds Thailand will experience a lost decade. And as the government's economic argument loses force, the only authority it will have left is its force of arms."

so how much did economists calculate a coup costs Thailand on average? Seems like 15 billion US$ - wasn't it about that?

these guys could be "above average" afterall....

[wabothai]

All generals got an afternoon crash course on economic affairs.