Somkid tells Thais not to be too worried with export contraction

[webfact]

Somkid tells Thais not to be too worried with export contraction



BANGKOK: -- Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak told the Thai people not to be panic with the negative export figures to the point of losing confidence in the state of the economy.

He pointed out that Thailand used to experience export contraction alternating with export rebound in the past reflecting the global market trend. He said economic fundamentals of Thailand remain strong and even if exports have dropped, tourism industry has improved leaps and bounds.

Foreign arrivals this year are expected to increase to 30 million bringing in foreign exchanges estimated at over 2.2 trillion baht.

Dr Somkid is confident that if all the economic packages introduced by the government are successfully implemented, Thailand’s economy will be back on strong footing in three years.

Source: http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/somkid-tells-thais-not-to-be-too-worried-with-export-contraction


-- Thai PBS 2015-09-30

[ldiablo]

And who will be running the country in three years? I have my opinion. Bye bye roadmap.

[starky]

Oh good nothing to worry about then. Cheers

[rkidlad]

I don't think simply telling Thais is reassuring enough. Maybe a pat on the head is also necessary.

[Strangebrew]

Right no worries Mates ship is sinking but we have life jackets for the elites. Just think how good grasshoppers taste, Though the rest of elites will fair well.

[worgeordie]

If the slide continues,don't worry about your job,you can

always set up a street stall,and be self employed like 25% ?

of the population.

regards worgeordie

[Oziex1]

I think the Toyota factory is in the process of exporting itself to Cambodia, don't worry about that it's all OK.

[shirtless]

Dont worry when an official says dont worry bloody well worry.

[MZurf]

And who will be running the country in three years? I have my opinion. Bye bye roadmap.

The real roadmap has the military rule the country in perpetuity. That much was made clear during the new charter debacle.

[rubl]

And who will be running the country in three years? I have my opinion. Bye bye roadmap.

The real roadmap has the military rule the country in perpetuity. That much was made clear during the new charter debacle.

The question implied that whatever will be done now to help the economy will be undone again in three years time. Probably a reference to the 'bide your time' order from some criminal fugitive.

[Squeegee]

Well it didn't take them long to get back onto their usual hymn sheet:

"tourism industry has improved leaps and bounds.

Foreign arrivals this year are expected to increase to...."

Are people really queuing up to get into this basket case banana regime for "holidays"? What is the attraction, lesser spotted dirty cop and greater waffling tit?

Welcome to the Regime Of Smiles, all you fools.

Edited September 30, 2015 by Squeegee

[whatproblem]

Thai people don't worry ,I have enough

[MZurf]

And who will be running the country in three years? I have my opinion. Bye bye roadmap.

The real roadmap has the military rule the country in perpetuity. That much was made clear during the new charter debacle.

The question implied that whatever will be done now to help the economy will be undone again in three years time. Probably a reference to the 'bide your time' order from some criminal fugitive.

Ah, you were able to write "criminal fugitive" yet again. That must have pleased you immensely! And do you really think the army will hand over power in three years time??

Man, you junta lovers are nothing if not endearingly naive

[Reigntax]

Dont worry about the economy contracting now but next year is another story and in 2 years we will dump our crap on an elected government. If we let you have one!

Edited September 30, 2015 by Reigntax

[sawadee1947]

I don't think simply telling Thais is reassuring enough. Maybe a pat on the head is also necessary.

or a wake-up call.....!!

[GAZZPA]

I think the Toyota factory is in the process of exporting itself to Cambodia, don't worry about that it's all OK.

Are you joking about this?

[GAZZPA]

Goodness me, talk about burying your head in the sand. Exports are down and will continue to slide due to a few reasons,,

Firstly the loss of GSP into the EU and USA across many industries, in short Thailand is too expensive to buy from now (have not once seen the government come up with a plan to tackle such a serious issue). Secondly the Thai 51% ownership issue is not appealing, thirdly, the political instability and lack of elected government with seemingly more restrictions on freedom of speech.

This will only improve with serious investment in R&D, infrastructure and some kind of business incentives for companies. Along with a democratically elected government with a strong economic plan. With neighbouring countries opening arms to investment I cannot see a reverse trend at all.

As for tourism my direct neighbour is in the industry and deals with tourists in Pattaya and some other locations, he has 10 years experience and he told me just yesterday that bookings were made for the peak season but way down on last year (which was already down on the year before).

Thailand has a big mountain to climb but until they stop talking crap and acknowledge it I fear things will get worse.

I am living in Pattaya as it is close to my work and it has been more then quiet in recent years, businesses are closing and shop / restaurant rental opportunities are everywhere. I do not need to have real data in front of me to know what is happening around me, its dire right now.

[rubl]

And who will be running the country in three years? I have my opinion. Bye bye roadmap.

The real roadmap has the military rule the country in perpetuity. That much was made clear during the new charter debacle.

The question implied that whatever will be done now to help the economy will be undone again in three years time. Probably a reference to the 'bide your time' order from some criminal fugitive.

Ah, you were able to write "criminal fugitive" yet again. That must have pleased you immensely! And do you really think the army will hand over power in three years time??

Man, you junta lovers are nothing if not endearingly naive

If someone returns tomorrow I will immediately drop the 'fugitive' part.

Now, let's get back to the economy. Export to China may be a wee bit difficult at the moment. Europe more promising, exchange rate improving, but Europe tends to require quality and 'sustainable', 'green' manufacturing processes. Now that's a challenge, even for European companies.

[rubl]

Dont worry about the economy contracting now but next year is another story and in 2 years we will dump our crap on an elected government. If we let you have one!

and when the economy is booming in two years time someone wants to stop biding time and come back for cookies ?

[Nick167]

Tell that to companies that have to lay off workers and maybe close their operations as they cannot export their products. Where does Thailand get these "people"?

[Srikcir]

"Thailand used to experience export contraction alternating with export rebound in the past"

That is true but the overall trend is DOWN and CONTINUING. And if it wasn't for the economic spurts during the elected Thaksin, Abhisit and Yingluck regimes, the value of exports would be near the 2007 period!

The good news for Thais is that products normally exported will be dumped into the Thai domestic market and heavily discounted.

But the cost savings will be short-lived as the public begins to hoard commodities, depleting the oversupply, and driving prices even higher than before the oversupply. Businesses will close due to lack of capital from underpricing, further creating a shortage and further causing proce increases.

[waldroj]

Normally, I am sceptical of anything being quoted by the junta and its (spinsters).

Rather than being the usual critic, I got onto the Bank of Thailand web site and downloaded the economic indices from their Statistics page. I’ve now plotted that data, and it shows some interesting trends.

Firstly, as already noted by Sricir above, it seems that Exports have been in the doldrums since 2008.

Second, the growth figures for Tourism are quite impressive (and probably give TAT cause for optimism if they are real). However, there have been some sharp monthly spikes (downward) and TAT should be cautious of future sharp downturns.

While I don’t share the confidence that Dr Somkid has (that Thailand’s economy will be back on strong footing in three years), I have to admit that the number of tourists recorded as arriving in Thailand seems to be unaffected by the junta’s takeover last year.

As a caveat, I make no inference about the "quality" of these tourists (or whether they will bring the projected 2.2 trillion baht).

[ExpatOilWorker]

"Thailand used to experience export contraction alternating with export rebound in the past"

That is true but the overall trend is DOWN and CONTINUING. And if it wasn't for the economic spurts during the elected Thaksin, Abhisit and Yingluck regimes, the value of exports would be near the 2007 period!

The good news for Thais is that products normally exported will be dumped into the Thai domestic market and heavily discounted.

But the cost savings will be short-lived as the public begins to hoard commodities, depleting the oversupply, and driving prices even higher than before the oversupply. Businesses will close due to lack of capital from underpricing, further creating a shortage and further causing proce increases.

ThaiExportHistory.jpg

Nice long term graph. You have a similar graph for imports?

Link to the site?

[ExpatOilWorker]

Normally, I am sceptical of anything being quoted by the junta and its (spinsters).

Rather than being the usual critic, I got onto the Bank of Thailand web site and downloaded the economic indices from their Statistics page. Ive now plotted that data, and it shows some interesting trends.

Firstly, as already noted by Sricir above, it seems that Exports have been in the doldrums since 2008.

Second, the growth figures for Tourism are quite impressive (and probably give TAT cause for optimism if they are real). However, there have been some sharp monthly spikes (downward) and TAT should be cautious of future sharp downturns.

While I dont share the confidence that Dr Somkid has (that Thailands economy will be back on strong footing in three years), I have to admit that the number of tourists recorded as arriving in Thailand seems to be unaffected by the juntas takeover last year.

As a caveat, I make no inference about the "quality" of these tourists (or whether they will bring the projected 2.2 trillion baht).

Nice linear growth in tourist numbers up until 2003. Then an even faster growth, but with wild fluctuations. Would it be possible for you to plot total tourist arrivals, with Chinese and Russians arrivals plotted separate?

[Thai at Heart]

More Fdi is the solution. People are still making stuff, they just have to choose Thailand over anywhere else.

[Alwyn]

And who will be running the country in three years? I have my opinion. Bye bye roadmap.

The real roadmap has the military rule the country in perpetuity. That much was made clear during the new charter debacle.

The question implied that whatever will be done now to help the economy will be undone again in three years time. Probably a reference to the 'bide your time' order from some criminal fugitive.

You actually think that what's being done now is helping the economy? wow

[waldroj]

Dear ExpatOilWorker,

That was my caveat!

I'm sure it would make interesting viewing. It probably is available on the TAT or Immigration web sites.

I only had total numbers from the BoT Web sites.

[bongoz]

Dr Somkid you ain't seen nothing yet!

[waldroj]

Dear ExpatOilWorker,

I managed to get some data from the TAT web site (see http://www2.tat.or.th/stat/web/static_download.php?Rpt=cre)

Unfortunately, this only spans the period from 1997-2007.

Whilst the attached plot of this data is interesting (with some surprises as to the top visitors to Thailand up to 2007), I suspect that the rank order has changed dramatically since then!

Never the less, I include the plot and data for interest.

Visitors_to_Thailand_1997_2007.pdf

[Praematura]

Thais upcountry are worried as they are making substantially less and know who is to blame. Thailand primarily exports commodities which are overpriced and uncompetitive. I would love to hear how these commodities are going to be consumed domestically? Also the baht is to strong relative to Thailands competition.

Ok so we are back to tourism to prop up the economy. But the baht is strong, the Chinese which accounted for 85% of the growth in that market are looking at a serious economic issues and the Russians can't afford to come in the numbers they did. The bombing was a terrorist attack and it has affected numbers. When I left pattaya a few weeks ago there were so many business that were vacant with big signs out "for rent."

I think the economist did a piece about growth following a coup and for at least two years there is a huge hit to gdp.

Lastly under the current inept government implementing various anti business initiatives like the single internet gateway, FDI is a dream.

Edited September 30, 2015 by Praematura