webfact Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Russian ruble scrapes new low, no happier for 2016MOSCOW: -- The Russian ruble on the last currency trading day of the year has hit a new 2015 low against the US dollar, at one point falling to 73.20 to the greenback.Weaker oil prices since mid-2014 mean the ruble has more than halved in value against the dollar. The other major cause is external financing restrictions—part of Western sanctions over Moscow’s role in the Ukraine crisis.Yet ordinary Muscovites did not seem worried, one saying: “It’s a normal, dynamic process, which is how it should be. The exchange rate’s the same as the situation in the country. There’s nothing strange in it. We’ll survive.”Another ventured: “Of course, it is harder for those travelling to Europe, but for most people it doesn’t matter if the exchange rate grows or not.”The forecast is not good, with Brent crude reaching an 11-year low this month, overshadowing the recovery of Russia’s oil-dependent economy. Its 2016 budget was calculated on an oil price of $50 per barrel, and the price has been hovering around $37.Moscow has said the ruble’s volatility, rather than value, makes budget planning difficult. -- (c) Copyright Euronews 2015-12-31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigt3365 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Another ventured: “Of course, it is harder for those travelling to Europe, but for most people it doesn’t matter if the exchange rate grows or not.” Methinks this person doesn't really understand the dynamics of exchange rates. Many countries are having problems right now due to low oil prices. Thanks to Saudi Arabia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Credo Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 A good time to visit Russia. Very favorable exchange rate and unseasonably warm weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KKr Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 inside a closed economy, the exchange rate is indifferent.IMHO, Oil prices were high because a cartel kept the prices up by managing the offered side.Now, there are too many producers outside of the cartel and the price goes to its economic equilibrium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trogers Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Any large fall in the price of caviar and vodkas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Usernames Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Putin's Russia looking a lot like Brezhnev's Russia, which looked a lot like Nicholas II's Russia. Impoverished. Backward. Thuggish. Totalitarian. Murderous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trogers Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Putin's Russia looking a lot like Brezhnev's Russia, which looked a lot like Nicholas II's Russia. Impoverished. Backward. Thuggish. Totalitarian. Murderous. It's called Russian Culture... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spidermike007 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 (edited) Usually favorability for a politician tends to have a lot to do with how well the economy is doing. One wonders if the Putin "fabricante" polls have changed at all, or is his popularity still hovering in the 90% favorable range? The Putin polls are about as legitimate as the PR campaign Trump has paid a small fortune for, to "leak" stories about how nice a guy he is. He is so desperate to have himself portrayed as nice, now that he is going into politics and needs the votes. He has devoted his entire career to being mean and ugly. I keep hearing people say, but so and so said he was really a nice guy. Funny stuff. Fictitious for sure, but funny. Like George Soros, Andrew Carnegie, and many others, one can easily rehabilitate their reputation with some cash, some effective PR, and some charity. Edited December 31, 2015 by spidermike007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydebolle Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 The TAT (Tourism Authority of Thailand) sees it differently and forecasts a three digit increase on tourists winging in from not-so-cold Siberia; we will see ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trogers Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Usually favorability for a politician tends to have a lot to do with how well the economy is doing. One wonders if the Putin "fabricante" polls have changed at all, or is his popularity still hovering in the 90% favorable range? Saddam scored higher than 97%... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spidermike007 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Poor little Vlad the Impaler. Going to be a bit harder to fabricate those polls with the economy in the toilet for so long. My guess, is that despite his most valiant of efforts, the people are getting grumpy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HerbalEd Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Another ventured: “Of course, it is harder for those travelling to Europe, but for most people it doesn’t matter if the exchange rate grows or not.” Methinks this person doesn't really understand the dynamics of exchange rates. Many countries are having problems right now due to low oil prices. Thanks to Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia does not set the price of oil. In fact, their economy is suffering more than most from cheap oil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigt3365 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Saudi Arabia does set the price of oil, along with the rest of OPEC. They determine the supply, which effects the price. If they quit pumping, the price would go up. But they are trying to put the US fracking industry out of business. Great friends, eh? LOL http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/saudi-arabia-is-paying-the-price-for-its-war-on-us-shale-oil-a6789931.html Some energy analysts see the kingdom’s continued overproduction as an attempt to bankrupt US shale oil producers that emerged with the advancement of fracking technology. “At one time the marginal drillers in North America were completely unprofitable. With the return of fracking, oil rigs in US were deployed again. Saudi Arabia is now looking to destroy them,” Danilo Onorino, portfolio manager at Dogma Capital, told the Independent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KarenBravo Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Saudi Arabia does set the price of oil, along with the rest of OPEC. They determine the supply, which effects the price. If they quit pumping, the price would go up. But they are trying to put the US fracking industry out of business. Great friends, eh? LOL http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/saudi-arabia-is-paying-the-price-for-its-war-on-us-shale-oil-a6789931.html Yes and no. OPEC now only supplies 40% of world oil output, but, Saudi Arabia is still a big producer, but only the worlds third after the USA and Russia. Where it does have an advantage is the cost of getting it out of the ground which is estimated at US$10 a barrel. The US shale and sand oil costs from US$40 to US$60 a barrel. If Saudi Arabia were to cut production so that the oil price goes up, then, foreign producers that at the moment can't compete, would switch the pumps back on. By doing this Saudi Arabia is effectively subsidizing it's competitors. That is the way Saudi Arabia sees it, so, you can hardly blame them for not wanting to cut production. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Credo Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Saudi Arabia does not set the oil price. It can, and does, influence the price of oil, but they don't set it. For the major oil producing countries, especially those which rely largely on oil exports, they have to pump and sell more oil to maintain the same income levels. It takes a carefully choreographed agreement by a lot of producers to affect the price of oil. Right now, that isn't likely to happen. The frackers will not go out of business. They may stop for a time, but they won't quit. Some of the largest oil fields in North Dakota and Eastern Montana will cap wells when the price drops down low enough. It is cheaper to buy overseas oil. SA can probably weather the price storm, but I don't know how well Russia will do. There economy seems to be in a fair amount of trouble, if one is to believe the regular media sources. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elgordo38 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 The TAT (Tourism Authority of Thailand) sees it differently and forecasts a three digit increase on tourists winging in from not-so-cold Siberia; we will see ;-) Yes I read this in the BP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elgordo38 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Saudi Arabia does set the price of oil, along with the rest of OPEC. They determine the supply, which effects the price. If they quit pumping, the price would go up. But they are trying to put the US fracking industry out of business. Great friends, eh? LOL http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/saudi-arabia-is-paying-the-price-for-its-war-on-us-shale-oil-a6789931.html Some energy analysts see the kingdom’s continued overproduction as an attempt to bankrupt US shale oil producers that emerged with the advancement of fracking technology. “At one time the marginal drillers in North America were completely unprofitable. With the return of fracking, oil rigs in US were deployed again. Saudi Arabia is now looking to destroy them,” Danilo Onorino, portfolio manager at Dogma Capital, told the Independent. I don't see any winners in the oil wars. In fact the biggest loser could turn out to be the USA with all the energy junk bonds floating around. If panic sets in the junk bond market look out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigt3365 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Saudi Arabia does set the price of oil, along with the rest of OPEC. They determine the supply, which effects the price. If they quit pumping, the price would go up. But they are trying to put the US fracking industry out of business. Great friends, eh? LOL http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/saudi-arabia-is-paying-the-price-for-its-war-on-us-shale-oil-a6789931.html Some energy analysts see the kingdom’s continued overproduction as an attempt to bankrupt US shale oil producers that emerged with the advancement of fracking technology. “At one time the marginal drillers in North America were completely unprofitable. With the return of fracking, oil rigs in US were deployed again. Saudi Arabia is now looking to destroy them,” Danilo Onorino, portfolio manager at Dogma Capital, told the Independent. I don't see any winners in the oil wars. In fact the biggest loser could turn out to be the USA with all the energy junk bonds floating around. If panic sets in the junk bond market look out. The oil segment of the US economy is not doing well. But over all, the US economy is doing quite well. Many other nations who are closely tied to the oil industry are not fairing so well. Russia, Venezuela, even Norway! Currency seems to be down a bit in Norway. And of course, Saudi Arabia is not doing well. But as mentioned above, will be OK in the long run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srikcir Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Saudi Arabia does set the price of oil, along with the rest of OPEC. They determine the supply, which effects the price. If they quit pumping, the price would go up. But they are trying to put the US fracking industry out of business. Great friends, eh? LOL http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/saudi-arabia-is-paying-the-price-for-its-war-on-us-shale-oil-a6789931.html Some energy analysts see the kingdom’s continued overproduction as an attempt to bankrupt US shale oil producers that emerged with the advancement of fracking technology. “At one time the marginal drillers in North America were completely unprofitable. With the return of fracking, oil rigs in US were deployed again. Saudi Arabia is now looking to destroy them,” Danilo Onorino, portfolio manager at Dogma Capital, told the Independent. OPEC countries rarely agree on production limits and there are major oil producres who are not part of OPEC like Russia. Currently Saudi Arabia is producing at its highest rate on record to meet its debts. Russia is producing oil at a rate not seen since the fall of the Soviet Union. Iran in January 2016 will begin scaling up its oil production with lifting of UN/US sanctions for badly needed capital. But it will cause crude oil prices could fall by another $5–$15 per barrel. The irony of the oil industry now is that as prices continue to fall, demand continues to rise! I expect in 2016 the USA will become a next exporter of oil & gas. This has nothing to do with being friends or not. It's just business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ulic Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 You will not find me laughing as the Canadian dollar also continues its downward spiral. That said the TAT is predicting a return to previous levels of Russian tourists so no issues and everything is looking top shelf for Thai tourism. Lets not let the facts on the ground, spoil a good TAT forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daveAustin Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 the TAT is predicting a return to previous levels of Russian touristsOh dear, I was hoping their screwy money would keep them out. [emoji52] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whimsy Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 LOL. when I read the TAT forecast of a rebound of Russian tourist numbers within 3 months I thought what is that prediction based on, Now we know. Based on nothing but hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KarenBravo Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 (edited) Well......don't forget that Putin has asked Russians not to holiday in Turkey due to the shooting down of that fighter plane. Also, Egypt has also been knocked off the Russian itinerary due to the bombing of that Russian airliner. So, where will they go now? Edited December 31, 2015 by KarenBravo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thaibeachlovers Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Another ventured: “Of course, it is harder for those travelling to Europe, but for most people it doesn’t matter if the exchange rate grows or not.” Methinks this person doesn't really understand the dynamics of exchange rates. Many countries are having problems right now due to low oil prices. Thanks to Saudi Arabia. Not mine that imports almost all of it's oil. Hurrah and hope it goes to $10 a barrel. THAI put up it's prices because of high oil prices- are they dropping prices now? I'd cheer that Russia is in the doodoo except that powerful countries like Russia when they are desperate usually do something not nice to other countries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Publicus Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 From the OP:: Its 2016 budget was calculated on an oil price of $50 per barrel, and the price has been hovering around $37. Break my heart Until this year Putin had for a long time been budgeting based on $100 a barrel. Look at him now. $50 a barrel is a 50% reduction in the government's budget year on year. Radical stuff. Yet Putin is running a big aerial bombing campaign in Syria. The ruble has been a rubble all year and is only getting worse as we enter the new year. Putin has of course shit made his own bed. His irredentism against Ukraine was, shall we say, ill-timed as it coincided with the nosedive in oil prices. That Russia provides large volumes of natural gas to Europe turns out to not alleviate his migraines. The Russian people love to suffer for Russia the mother and for their leader who loves them. EU-Nato sanctions over Ukraine are set to continue through June and should be expected to continue through 2017 if Putin doesn't begin to see the light before then. Putin providing funding support and direction of numerous rightwing parties in EU-Nato countries is yet another severe aggression against civilised society. Maybe Donald Trump might even get a perfumed cheque in the mail as an election year gift. Happy New Year to the Tsar-commissar Vladimir Putin and his Russia . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitkof Island Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 If this means less Russians in Thailand i am all for it. Now if the Euro would crash that would be even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OMGImInPattaya Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Funny there's not much of the "U.S. is in Economic and Political Decline" meme around anymore. It was always a suckers bet to take that wager...anyone made any money off their BRIC investments lately? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GOLDBUGGY Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Saudi Arabia does set the price of oil, along with the rest of OPEC. They determine the supply, which effects the price. If they quit pumping, the price would go up. But they are trying to put the US fracking industry out of business. Great friends, eh? LOL http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/saudi-arabia-is-paying-the-price-for-its-war-on-us-shale-oil-a6789931.html Yes and no. OPEC now only supplies 40% of world oil output, but, Saudi Arabia is still a big producer, but only the worlds third after the USA and Russia. Where it does have an advantage is the cost of getting it out of the ground which is estimated at US$10 a barrel. The US shale and sand oil costs from US$40 to US$60 a barrel. If Saudi Arabia were to cut production so that the oil price goes up, then, foreign producers that at the moment can't compete, would switch the pumps back on. By doing this Saudi Arabia is effectively subsidizing it's competitors. That is the way Saudi Arabia sees it, so, you can hardly blame them for not wanting to cut production. True Saudi Arabia can extract their oil for around US$10 per barrel. So what benefit are they gaining by selling this for $35/bbl?. Before the Oil Price dropped and at US$100 per barrel Saudi Arabia was socking away tons of US Dollars in Surplus Income. Now, they don't make enough to pay there Bills. Why does this not seem like a smart move to me? Sure! They are causing temporary hardships to the Major Oil Companies. They have already cut there budgets on Exploration and Development. There profits are at record lows. They may very well cause the shutdown of Oil Fracking in the Sates. At these low prices maybe even the Tar Sands and Heavy Oil in Canada, Russia, and Venezuela. Off-shore Oil from the North Sea and Brazil. So after years of low prices then the Oil Price may finally go up. But what happens next? They already know where the Oil is and how to extract it. If Oil Prices go back up to $60/ bbl they will simply start up again. But in this instance Saudi Arabia can do nothing about this as they are already maxed out with there supply. So after many years of driving the price of Oil down, what do you hope to accomplish? I mean every well thought out plan should have a goal attached to the end of it, shouldn't it? Saudi Arabia would like all major Oil Producing Countries like Russia, Canada, and USA, besides OPEC, to sit down with them and discuss Oil Quotas and export restrictions, but this plan is deemed to fail from the beginning.These countries aren't ruled by a King and like in Saudi Arabia, where anything he says goes. Although some may argue this is not true for Russia. But with deals already in place, including Free Trade, and Capitalism, a country can't easily control how much oil is produced and where it is sold to, when there is a surplus. Maybe these world power should get together and then form an embargo on Saudi Oil (like they did for Iran) for trying to monopolize the Oil Industry. If an American Company tried to do this they would be Fined to the High Heaven and Top Brass put in prison. They broke up Standard Oil because of this in the USA. So how is it that Saudi Arabia can get away with this all the time? Or go back to the good old days. Have the Americans sell arms to Saudi Arabia and Russia sell arms to Iran, and then let them go at it. At least then the price of Oil would go up and the money would be coming back from Arabia. Instead of going to some Terrorist Organization to blowup some building in London, Paris, or New York. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pakboong Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Saudi Arabia's annual GDP is roughly $750 billion. There are parties who would be more than willing to pay a large amount for the oil losses directly to SR just to damage Russia. If you watch the world-wide effort to bring down the 5 BRICS countries this is just one more play. These folks would think nothing of spending a trillion to save 20 trillion. It is not so much about money as it is about power and control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prbkk Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 If this means less Russians in Thailand i am all for it. Now if the Euro would crash that would be even better. Thailand should offer special heavily discounted rates to Russians to keep that market ticking over. Pattaya is the destination of choice, so it should be the focus of the discount campaign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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