US election: Expect the unexpected in the New Hampshire Primary

[webfact]

US election: Expect the unexpected in the New Hampshire Primary



MANCHESTER N.H.: -- With the White House in the distance, the stakes couldn’t be higher.

Yet many in New Hampshire – the second state to pick its party nominees for the November 8 election to replace President Barack Obama – have left making their mind up until the very last minute.

That is perhaps why frontrunner Donald Trump’s pregnant daughter Ivanka braved the snow outside a polling station in Salem on Tuesday to make a final Primary Day appeal to undecided voters on behalf of her billionaire businessman father.

“Obviously I have a very unique perspective as his daughter but also as someone who has worked alongside of him for the past decade in terms of how capable and competent he is in an executive role, so that is amazing,” she said.

“As a daughter, it is more complicated!”

New Hampshire’s voters have a history of defying the opinion polls and of deciding late, very late.

As they emerged from their polling booth in Salem, some were asked by euronews when they had made their choice.

“Yesterday!” said one woman.

“Up until the last week, I was wavering between a couple of people and actually a couple of parties,” a man said.

“I actually made the final decision in the booth but I ended up going with whom I thought I would go with,” another voter added.

What is more, New Hampshire makes it easy for undeclared voters, known as independents, by letting them take part in either the Democratic or Republican primary. So they can reshape the race, on one side or the other, until the very last minute.

“Roughly 40 percent of the primary electorate are undeclared, evenly split between Republicans and Democrats,” euronews correspondent Stefan Grobe said.

“But one fourth of them is still open to changing their minds, according to surveys. And here lies the potential for big surprises.”

-- (c) Copyright Euronews 2016-02-10

[webfact]

Trump, Sanders look to emerge from New Hampshire with wins
By JULIE PACE and KATHLEEN RONAYNE

MANCHESTER, N.H. (AP) — Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders looked to emerge from Tuesday's New Hampshire primary with their first victories of the 2016 presidential election, while rivals hoped a state famous for political surprises would give their own White House bids a needed boost.

Even if Republican Trump or Democrat Sanders were to stumble, the two were assured of moving on. However, for some GOP candidates, the outcome could determine whether their campaigns continue beyond the northeastern battleground. A trio of governors — Jeb Bush, John Kasich and Chris Christie — have spent most of their time in the state in recent weeks and needed to show voters, as well as crucial financial donors, that they're viable candidates.

"This is my 72nd day in the state," Christie, the New Jersey governor, said during a campaign stop Tuesday. "I think I've done enough to do well here."

The governors believe their prospects were helped by Marco Rubio's rocky debate performance last week, which they say exposed the Florida senator as too inexperienced to serve as president. However, it was unknown heading into Tuesday's contest whether voters would shy away from Rubio or help him make the case that he's best positioned to take on Trump and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz.

If Rubio and the governors finish in a pack, it's likely to frustrate Republican Party elites who are eager to coalesce around a single candidate to challenge Trump and Cruz, whom they believe could be unelectable in November.

Nearly half of voters in the Republican primary made up their mind in the past week, according to early exit polls conducted by Edison Research for the Associated Press and the television networks. Republican voters were more negative about their politicians than Democrats, with about half of GOP voters saying they felt betrayed by party officials.

Among Democrats, Sanders has maintained a sizeable advantage over Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire for weeks. The state is friendly territory for the senator from neighboring Vermont and a must-win if he's to stay competitive with Clinton as the race moves to more diverse states that are seen as more hospitable to the former secretary of state.

"If we have a large voter turnout I think we're going to do just fine," Sanders told reporters as he took a walk around Concord Tuesday afternoon.

Clinton started her day at a Manchester polling site, where she thanked volunteers and local supporters.

"This is a great process, and as I have said over the last couple of days we're going to keep working literally until the last vote is cast and counted," she said. Clinton's campaign was hoping to narrow the gap with Sanders in New Hampshire, a state where she pulled off an unexpected victory over Barack Obama eight years ago.

Democratic voters in New Hampshire made their choices earlier than Republicans, with more than half saying they decided more than a week ago, according to the exit polls. About 7 in 10 Democrats said they wanted a candidate who has experience in politics; about a quarter wanted someone outside the political establishment.

The enthusiasm behind Trump, a real estate mogul who has never held political office, and Sanders, a self-described democratic socialist, underscores the public's anger with the current political system. Even if neither candidate ultimately becomes his party's nominee, whoever does will have to reckon with the voter frustration they've tapped into.

For Trump, New Hampshire is his state to lose. After a second place finish behind Cruz in Iowa last week, he accepted some of the more traditional trappings of presidential campaigns, including smaller town halls with voters. Still, he closed the final full day of campaigning with a vulgar insult of Cruz.

The Texas senator brushed off Trump's comments, saying the reason the businessman engages in insults "is because he can't discuss the substance."

As voters trickled in to polling stations early Tuesday, the results seemed far from decisive. Seventy-two-year-old Republican John Starer said he made up his mind about five minutes before he cast his ballot for Cruz. He said he was torn between Cruz and Trump but didn't think Trump could be elected.

"I think (Cruz is) about the only one who could possibly get elected as a Republican," he said

The large Republican field was winnowed after Iowa, but there remains a crowded grouping of more traditional candidates, including Rubio and the governors.

Rubio appeared to be breaking away after a stronger-than-expected showing in Iowa, but he stumbled in Saturday's debate under intense pressure from Christie. The New Jersey governor has relentlessly cast the young senator as too inexperienced and too reliant on memorized talking points to become president.

Rubio played into Christie's hands by responding with the same well-rehearsed line each time he was challenged by the governor. Rival campaigns hope the moment was enough to give voters pause.

Megan Tolstenko, 33, an unaffiliated voter from Manchester, voted Tuesday for Christie, saying she thinks he would be best able to manage the country's defenses and the fight against the Islamic State group.

Kasich, who has prided himself on avoiding attacks on his rivals, said he hoped New Hampshire voters were "fed up with the negative."
___

Pace reported from Washington. AP writers Lisa Lerer, Ken Thomas, Holly Ramer and Steve Peoples contributed to this report from New Hampshire.


-- (c) Associated Press 2016-02-10

[shunter]

The whole rigmarole puts me in mind of both a three ring circus and The Muppet Show.

[webfact]

MANCHESTER, New Hampshire (AP) - Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Bernie Sanders win New Hampshire's presidential primaries.

[Jingthing]

We knew Trump and Sanders were going to win already.

The political meaning though is more about how big Sanders win turns out to be and who is second place behind Trump for republicans.

Clinton remains the strong favorite for the democratic nomination.

So far, for the republicans, second place appears to be JOHN KASICH, Governor of Ohio.

N.H. was do or die for Kasich and it looks like he did. Same for Christie and it looks like he didn't. Bush's numbers don't matter, he has lots of money.

Rubio has done very poorly so his showing in Iowa didn't help in N.H.

The ROBOT RUBIO label has stuck. Watch the little boy fade away.

Cruz the Canuck isn't eligible to be president.

So for the three governors, if Bush and Christie exit soon, JOHN KASICH can emerge as a serious challenger to the utter INSANITY of nominating the con artist Trump. (As presumably most of the support for Bush and Christie, would go to Kasich.)

Assuming Christie will exit soon, no more money, will he endorse Kasich?

We'll see.

[arjunadawn]

I don't think any of this was unexpected.

[Jingthing]

I don't think any of this was unexpected.

I agree pretty much.

I see the big story as being will Kasich hold second place, will the gap with Trump narrow, and how Christie and Bush react. Mostly Christie.

Kasich has been ignored until now so this is a chance to really change their race.

[SgtRock]

Donald Trump 34.09% 11,570

John Kasich 16.07% 5,453

Jeb Bush 11.67% 3,961

Ted Cruz 11.51% 3,907

Marco Rubio 9.85% 3,343

Chris Christie 7.69% 2,610

Carly Fiorina 4.30% 1,459

Ben Carson 2.34% 794

Total Write-ins 0.76% 259

Rand Paul 0.71% 242

Joe Robinson 0.27% 90

Richard Witz 0.27% 90

Andy Martin 0.09% 30

Mike Huckabee 0.08% 27

Rick Santorum 0.08% 26

Jim Gilmore 0.05% 17

Looks like a pretty convincing win to me.

[webfact]

US election 2016: Trump and Sanders win New Hampshire

(BBC)Billionaire Donald Trump has won the New Hampshire primary in the Republican race for US presidential nominee.

Bernie Sanders won the Democratic vote ahead of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

New Hampshire is the second state to vote following last week's Iowa caucuses won by Ted Cruz for the Republicans and Mrs Clinton for the Democrats.

Full story: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-35538361


-- BBC 2016-02-10

[Usernames]

Trump and Sanders smashed the opposition. That poor old crone is never going to get what she has lusted after all her life. Sanders just promised to pay off everybody's student loans, even those who have graduated for years and years, presumably. The crone cannot match Sanders in giving away free stuff. The Bushes are a dead dynasty, thank God. And this was the best Kasich will ever do in any of the primaries. The Marco robot's batteries are almost out of energy. Trump and Cruz. And then Trump!

[Jingthing]

Well, if it's clear Trump and Sanders will probably win, then Bloomberg will enter and he can get on all the states ballots.

As Trump would definitely cream Sanders, at least Bloomberg would give the country a fighting chance to avoid the insane carnival barker.

But I don't think that's going to happen. Clinton will start winning, and it will probably be Trump vs. Clinton, with Clinton winning.

[notmyself]

Trump and Bernie were expected to win and they both did so by a larger margin than expected but Kasich was the biggest winner of the night. Bush was always going to get a lot of votes in NH so hard to judge which leaves us with Rubio, Cruz, Christie, Carly and Sleepy. Carly and Sleepy have been out of the race for some time and are now joined by Christie. He said during his speak that he was heading back to NJ with his family to take stock during his post election presentation. Nobody expected anything from them and they got exactly that so hard to call them losers. Cruz and Rubio.... They needed to get into the early 20s and not the early teens. Rubio took a bit of a hit from Christie during the last debate and I think it could well be a terminal injury so we are left with just Cruz as biggest loser on the night.

Speaking of early 20s. Bernie was expected to win in NH by 6-7 or 9 points and last I saw it was 21 points. Huge win for Bernie and Hillary knows it. Did anyone see her speech? She has suddenly started talking about campaign finance just a few days after batting the issue away, because Bernie is running on it and it's working.

I've a good wedge of cash on her winning but that is not a vote for her and I'm British anyway. My mother was a mathematician for William Hill gambling organisation in London for 30 years so I was surrounded by numbers and specifically probability - odds - chances of something happening. In order to make an accurate prediction you need as much information as possible, that is the core, that is it. The key is to make all of the information non subjective or at least as much as you can and then you process this information into knowledge.... which you use.

My knowledge suggests that Hillary is not to be trusted so why the Hell would I put 6k on her to win? Well my knowledge also tells me that she is unscrupulous....

unscrupulous

a crackdown on unscrupulous landlords

unprincipled, unethical, immoral, amoral, conscienceless, untrustworthy, shameless, reprobate, exploitative, corrupt, corrupted, dishonest, fraudulent, cheating, dishonourable, deceitful, devious, underhand, guileful, cunning, furtive, sly, wrongdoing, unsavoury, disreputable, improper, bad, evil, wicked, villainous, roguish, sinful, ignoble, degenerate, venal

Informal: crooked, shady, shifty, slippery

British informal: dodgy

Archaic: dastardly

http://www.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/english-thesaurus/unscrupulous

... and this takes a large part of the chance - odds - etc. away. People who are unethical at heart very often get to be in charge. She is willing to do what it takes without any scruples and with her backing she can do whatever it takes, regardless of anything. Is that going to be the U.S. President?

[Publicus]

Trump and Bernie were expected to win and they both did so by a larger margin than expected but Kasich was the biggest winner of the night. Bush was always going to get a lot of votes in NH so hard to judge which leaves us with Rubio, Cruz, Christie, Carly and Sleepy. Carly and Sleepy have been out of the race for some time and are now joined by Christie. He said during his speak that he was heading back to NJ with his family to take stock during his post election presentation. Nobody expected anything from them and they got exactly that so hard to call them losers. Cruz and Rubio.... They needed to get into the early 20s and not the early teens. Rubio took a bit of a hit from Christie during the last debate and I think it could well be a terminal injury so we are left with just Cruz as biggest loser on the night.

Speaking of early 20s. Bernie was expected to win in NH by 6-7 or 9 points and last I saw it was 21 points. Huge win for Bernie and Hillary knows it. Did anyone see her speech? She has suddenly started talking about campaign finance just a few days after batting the issue away, because Bernie is running on it and it's working.

I've a good wedge of cash on her winning but that is not a vote for her and I'm British anyway. My mother was a mathematician for William Hill gambling organisation in London for 30 years so I was surrounded by numbers and specifically probability - odds - chances of something happening. In order to make an accurate prediction you need as much information as possible, that is the core, that is it. The key is to make all of the information non subjective or at least as much as you can and then you process this information into knowledge.... which you use.

My knowledge suggests that Hillary is not to be trusted so why the Hell would I put 6k on her to win? Well my knowledge also tells me that she is unscrupulous....

unscrupulous

a crackdown on unscrupulous landlords

unprincipled, unethical, immoral, amoral, conscienceless, untrustworthy, shameless, reprobate, exploitative, corrupt, corrupted, dishonest, fraudulent, cheating, dishonourable, deceitful, devious, underhand, guileful, cunning, furtive, sly, wrongdoing, unsavoury, disreputable, improper, bad, evil, wicked, villainous, roguish, sinful, ignoble, degenerate, venal

Informal: crooked, shady, shifty, slippery

British informal: dodgy

Archaic: dastardly

http://www.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/english-thesaurus/unscrupulous

... and this takes a large part of the chance - odds - etc. away. People who are unethical at heart very often get to be in charge. She is willing to do what it takes without any scruples and with her backing she can do whatever it takes, regardless of anything. Is that going to be the U.S. President?

Sounds then that you should have put the money on the Republican election demolition machine that only attacks regardless of facts or realities. It's why Trump is right at home in the Republican Party and it is why he is surpassing all expectations that had existed.

Then again however, you have made the right bet cause it is going nowhere this time around. This is so despite the R's being led by their rightwhingers who are trying harder than ever before. R's are flailing harder than ever because none of their stuff works any more.

Still, all reasoning and cold hard analysis aside, a wise wager indeed. It is the dialectic of this election that one one either gets or does not get, and regardless of your analysis you are on it. Wisdom is its own reward but the money's good too.

[sanukjim]

What happen was not at all unexpected

[NeverSure]

[NeverSure]

Boys and Girls, practice saying "President Trump"

The people have had it with the establishment. Had it.

Hillary the next POTUS? LOL.

[up-country_sinclair]

What happen was not at all unexpected

I tend to think that most were surprised by Governor Kasich's second place finish. He was expected to do well, but he outperformed. Senator Sanders also did much better than expected.

this was the best Kasich will ever do in any of the primaries.

Ohio holds it's primary in a little over a month. You don't think Gov. Kasich is going to do better than 15% in his home state where he's very popular?

Boys and Girls, practice saying "President Trump"

Boys and girls say lots of foolish and immature things. Adults know very well that Trump will never be president.

By the way, it's indicative of the limited intelligence level of the average Trump fanboy that they would have to practice saying a four syllable phrase.

[arjunadawn]

Reading some further info on the NH primary I realized the sense I have is one of joy! I am happy. I am particularly happy because of the democratic car crash. While the republican circus has captured all the news lately the greater marvel is in the democratic story. I realize I found myself rooting for Bernie! Of course I don't want him to be elected. I just want Hillary to be destroyed (I prefer imprisoned)! With Bernie elected far less trauma to America would actually take place then were Hillary elected. Even with Bernie's outrageous anathema socialism he would just be unable to enact so much overtly. Hillary on the other hand manages stagecraft far better than statecraft. She is about as insidious as one can imagine. With Hillary there would be no pretense to her real goals, they would all be packaged and insinuated in stalking horses as Obama has done. Hillary has a far greater chance of doing far greater harm to the US than bumbling Bernie- honest, consistent, amusing, but worthy of respect if for nothing less than his constancy. Hillary has zero redeemable qualities. Sadly, I think its too early to ring the death knell for HRC. Money, "dirt," are her bread and butter.

[Usernames]

What happen was not at all unexpected

I tend to think that most were surprised by Governor Kasich's second place finish. He was expected to do well, but he outperformed. Senator Sanders also did much better than expected.

this was the best Kasich will ever do in any of the primaries.

Ohio holds it's primary in a little over a month. You don't think Gov. Kasich is going to do better than 15% in his home state where he's very popular?

Boys and Girls, practice saying "President Trump"

Boys and girls say lots of foolish and immature things. Adults know very well that Trump will never be president.

By the way, it's indicative of the limited intelligence level of the average Trump fanboy that they would have to practice saying a four syllable phrase.

A month from now, Kasich will be broke and out of the race or so far behind he will not matter. When favorite sons don't do well nationally, people in the home states in fact don't vote for them, because they want their vote to matter in deciding among the leaders. And Kasich won't even be sniffin' it.

[NeverSure]

Reading some further info on the NH primary I realized the sense I have is one of joy! I am happy. I am particularly happy because of the democratic car crash. While the republican circus has captured all the news lately the greater marvel is in the democratic story. I realize I found myself rooting for Bernie! Of course I don't want him to be elected. I just want Hillary to be destroyed (I prefer imprisoned)! With Bernie elected far less trauma to America would actually take place then were Hillary elected. Even with Bernie's outrageous anathema socialism he would just be unable to enact so much overtly. Hillary on the other hand manages stagecraft far better than statecraft. She is about as insidious as one can imagine. With Hillary there would be no pretense to her real goals, they would all be packaged and insinuated in stalking horses as Obama has done. Hillary has a far greater chance of doing far greater harm to the US than bumbling Bernie- honest, consistent, amusing, but worthy of respect if for nothing less than his constancy. Hillary has zero redeemable qualities. Sadly, I think its too early to ring the death knell for HRC. Money, "dirt," are her bread and butter.

Hillary for prison!!

[NeverSure]

Megyn Kelly ain't too happy today.

[Ulysses G.]

Hillary for prison!!

It is only justice.

[up-country_sinclair]

this was the best Kasich will ever do in any of the primaries.

Ohio holds it's primary in a little over a month. You don't think Gov. Kasich is going to do better than 15% in his home state where he's very popular?

A month from now, Kasich will be broke and out of the race or so far behind he will not matter. When favorite sons don't do well nationally, people in the home states in fact don't vote for them, because they want their vote to matter in deciding among the leaders.

1. You've moved the goalposts. First you said he wouldn't do better in any of the upcoming primaries, and now you say it won't matter.

2. Off the top of my head I can remember that in 2008 Gov. Huckabee won Arkansas and Gov. Romney won Massachusetts. And in 2012, Speaker Gingrich won Georgia. For the Democrats, in 2004 Gov. Dean won Vermont and Senator Edwards won North Carolina.

[Publicus]

Ca2H1UYWEAAeNMz.jpg

Trump is enjoying and benefitting from multimillions of free MSM publicity the others don't get.

Which connects to the point that while the right continues to attack the MSM, it and Trump himself have eased off somewhat in their habitual and rote barbs at.MSM.

Faux btw is in no way MSM.

[Ulysses G.]

Hillary gets plenty of free publicity concerning lying to the American people and the families of the American heroes killed at Benghazi as well as the crimes she committed ignoring security protocols with her personal server. She gets plenty of airtime.

[NeverSure]

Ca2H1UYWEAAeNMz.jpg

Trump is enjoying and benefitting from multimillions of free MSM publicity the others don't get.

Which connects to the point that while the right continues to attack the MSM, it and Trump himself have eased off somewhat in their habitual and rote barbs at.MSM.

Faux btw is in no way MSM.

Fox has been fighting Trump. Where have you been? He skipped the last debate on Fox News just before Iowa. (I point that out as you probably don't know about it, LOL.) Fox was pushing Bush until it became obvious (even to them) that he's a loser and then they pumped Rubio. Now what do they do when Rubio's a loser?

Conservatives in the US are mad as hell at Fox News and the owner, Rupert Murdock. Fox has indeed been pumping the same candidates that the rest of the MSM has been pumping.

You are looking at massive rebellion. It's a rebellion against the establishment by the people. Hillary is caught in that same web.

I have no idea how anyone could be opposed to flushing out the big power brokers including Wall Street and having the people vote for outsiders.

350

[Usernames]

this was the best Kasich will ever do in any of the primaries.

Ohio holds it's primary in a little over a month. You don't think Gov. Kasich is going to do better than 15% in his home state where he's very popular?

A month from now, Kasich will be broke and out of the race or so far behind he will not matter. When favorite sons don't do well nationally, people in the home states in fact don't vote for them, because they want their vote to matter in deciding among the leaders.

1. You've moved the goalposts. First you said he wouldn't do better in any of the upcoming primaries, and now you say it won't matter.

2. Off the top of my head I can remember that in 2008 Gov. Huckabee won Arkansas and Gov. Romney won Massachusetts. And in 2012, Speaker Gingrich won Georgia. For the Democrats, in 2004 Gov. Dean won Vermont and Senator Edwards won North Carolina.

Actually that is not what I said, but . . . oh, why bother.

[Publicus]

Ca2H1UYWEAAeNMz.jpg

Trump is enjoying and benefitting from multimillions of free MSM publicity the others don't get.

Which connects to the point that while the right continues to attack the MSM, it and Trump himself have eased off somewhat in their habitual and rote barbs at.MSM.

Faux btw is in no way MSM.

Fox has been fighting Trump. Where have you been? He skipped the last debate on Fox News just before Iowa. (I point that out as you probably don't know about it, LOL.) Fox was pushing Bush until it became obvious (even to them) that he's a loser and then they pumped Rubio. Now what do they do when Rubio's a loser?

Conservatives in the US are mad as hell at Fox News and the owner, Rupert Murdock. Fox has indeed been pumping the same candidates that the rest of the MSM has been pumping.

You are looking at massive rebellion. It's a rebellion against the establishment by the people. Hillary is caught in that same web.

I have no idea how anyone could be opposed to flushing out the big power brokers including Wall Street and having the people vote for outsiders.

350

In 2008 during the months before the D convention a large number of super delegates streamed to Barak Obama.

Things in the Democratic Party take care of themselves in effacious ways.

It's youse guys in the Republican Party with this crew of candidate characters that form the 2016 Republican Party Circular Firing Squad. Cause come January all of these gunslingers will be back at their regular desks.

[NeverSure]

And, just which of the two - Hillary or Bernie, is a winner? Gawd.

349

[Berkshire]

And, just which of the two - Hillary or Bernie, is a winner? Gawd.

349

The GOP has had their spin machine pointed straight at HRC even before she declared. After all these months, they may have successfully put doubt in peoples' heads. But they may have underestimated Sanders. Just calling him a socialist may not do the trick, particularly among millennials. If Sanders wins the nomination, people may just vote for him to prevent one of the crazies (read Trump and Cruz) from seizing the White House. I'm not particularly fond of either Hillary or Bernie. But much more important, I just don't want a Republican as President. That would be really, really bad for the USA.