How Far Will The GBP Drop?

[Farang99]

still better than what it was this time last yr.47-48.

i remember over 30yrs.ago 38 for cash.

How about this as a sweet memory?

Forex 1997 v03.xls

Those were the days my friend! For a brief period in August of 1997 I even got 90THB= £1. Silly me thought it was always going to be like that, so I moved here in April 1998. Unfortunately, to quote a British Prime Minister, we've never had it so good!

[i claudius]

still better than what it was this time last yr.47-48.

i remember over 30yrs.ago 38 for cash.

How about this as a sweet memory?

Forex 1997 v03.xls

Those were the days my friend! For a brief period in August of 1997 I even got 90THB= £1. Silly me thought it was always going to be like that, so I moved here in April 1998. Unfortunately, to quote a British Prime Minister, we've never had it so good!

Those were the days , i was living on sukhumvit in BKK my rent was so little and drinking in the Thermae was a pitance , happy days .

[Baerboxer]

There will be uncertainty with the pound until after the EU referendum in June.

Or, in the event of a "leave" result, after the UK Parliament votes on the UK staying/leaving the EU.

A vote which may take place if the referendum result says leave. (There is no requirement/duty/obligation, under the British Constitution, for HM Government or Parliament to act upon the result of a referendum).

The UK cannot leave without a vote in Parliament (in favour of leaving) taking place.

Such a vote would repeal (nullify) the European Communities Act 1972 which permitted the UK to join.

Ah the good old parliamentary Catch 22.

[Baerboxer]

Having read all the economic forecasts on this subject during the past week, you are the only person on the planet to have ever suggested that the Pound will strengthen into the 50's and then 70's in the event of Brexit.

He's entitled to his view though. And who knows. Forex doesn't necessarily follow any economic, financial or social logic. There's always one - Michael Parkinson used to say Barnsley would win the FA Cup; and my late Dad used to say Leicester would win the Premier league................ hang on a minute!

[little mary sunshine]

I think, Ithink, guess,guess,guess no one really knows!!

[TheCruncher]

The decline in value is only a warm up for things to expect after a Brexit.

[Johnniey]

still better than what it was this time last yr.47-48.

i remember over 30yrs.ago 38 for cash.

How about this as a sweet memory?

Forex 1997 v03.xls

Those were the days my friend! For a brief period in August of 1997 I even got 90THB= £1. Silly me thought it was always going to be like that, so I moved here in April 1998. Unfortunately, to quote a British Prime Minister, we've never had it so good!

Those were the days , i was living on sukhumvit in BKK my rent was so little and drinking in the Thermae was a pitance , happy days .

Had the Thermae moved location by then? I preferred the old seedy one but also liked the one under that hotel. Many a night ended up coming up the stairs into the sunlight !

[Johnniey]

The decline in value is only a warm up for things to expect after a Brexit.

I must admit I never knew what Brexit was until a few days ago. When is it?

[i claudius]

still better than what it was this time last yr.47-48.

i remember over 30yrs.ago 38 for cash.

How about this as a sweet memory?

Forex 1997 v03.xls

Those were the days my friend! For a brief period in August of 1997 I even got 90THB= £1. Silly me thought it was always going to be like that, so I moved here in April 1998. Unfortunately, to quote a British Prime Minister, we've never had it so good!

Those were the days , i was living on sukhumvit in BKK my rent was so little and drinking in the Thermae was a pitance , happy days .

Had the Thermae moved location by then? I preferred the old seedy one but also liked the one under that hotel. Many a night ended up coming up the stairs into the sunlight !

It was under the hotel then

[Johnniey]

So all you guys with crystal balls - if i had a large amount(for me) of baht like 1 milllion, would you buy pounds or transer to a UK bank expecting the pound to strengthen is say 5 years?

[hugh2121]

There will be uncertainty with the pound until after the EU referendum in June.

If the vote is for Brexit, expect a big drop in the value of the £

If the vote is to remain in EU, expect a short term rise in the rate.

If Boris says he made a gaff and campaigns to remain in EU, expect the rate to rise again.

If...................................................

[jpinx]

So all you guys with crystal balls - if i had a large amount(for me) of baht like 1 milllion, would you buy pounds or transer to a UK bank expecting the pound to strengthen is say 5 years?

I'd put it on term deposit at 7% or so,,,,,,

[Johnniey]

So all you guys with crystal balls - if i had a large amount(for me) of baht like 1 milllion, would you buy pounds or transer to a UK bank expecting the pound to strengthen is say 5 years?

I'd put it on term deposit at 7% or so,,,,,,

Any banks in Thailand do this?

[TheCruncher]

So all you guys with crystal balls - if i had a large amount(for me) of baht like 1 milllion, would you buy pounds or transer to a UK bank expecting the pound to strengthen is say 5 years?

I'd put it on term deposit at 7% or so,,,,,,

Are there term deposits of 7% in GBP these days?

If the answer is yes then we all know where the currency is headed, because a strong cuurency doesn't pay this kind of interests these days.

[jpinx]

Any banks in Thailand do this?

Are there term deposits of 7% in GBP these days?

If the answer is yes then we all know where the currency is headed, because a strong cuurency doesn't pay this kind of interests these days.

Not a chance - you will have to do some legwork and calculating to get it... there is no free lunch

[chiang mai]

A five year GBP term deposit these days will get you about 2.8%

[Johnniey]

A five year GBP term deposit these days will get you about 2.8%

I'll stick with gold then.

[Pattaya46]

A five year GBP term deposit these days will get you about 2.8%

I'll stick with gold then.

Gold made far worse on last 5 years in Thailand...

[Puccini]

The pound has been affected by the uncertainty of the UK leaving the EU. What I'd like to know is will there be a drop in the value of the Euro if the EU loses the UK ?

Yes, definitely. After some time, the GBP may recover. In the long term, the EU and with it the Euro zone will fall apart.

Source: my crystal ball.

[Naam]

So all you guys with crystal balls - if i had a large amount(for me) of baht like 1 milllion, would you buy pounds or transer to a UK bank expecting the pound to strengthen is say 5 years?

I'd put it on term deposit at 7% or so,,,,,,

why only 7 and not 11 or 13%?

[jpinx]

So all you guys with crystal balls - if i had a large amount(for me) of baht like 1 milllion, would you buy pounds or transer to a UK bank expecting the pound to strengthen is say 5 years?

I'd put it on term deposit at 7% or so,,,,,,

why only 7 and not 11 or 13%?

Can't find 11, let alone 13 -- unless you know different ?

[THAIJAMES]

So all you guys with crystal balls - if i had a large amount(for me) of baht like 1 milllion, would you buy pounds or transer to a UK bank expecting the pound to strengthen is say 5 years?

It depends what currency you are converting from. If from US Dollar then it is at its lowest in 7 years so the risk of not rising above this level within 5 years is extremely low.

In Baht it does not make as much sense as it was 44 in 2013 compared to the current rate of 50.

Edited February 28, 2016 by THAIJAMES

[sandyf]

Obviously the rate to the baht has the most direct effect on us living here but since Bretton Woods it is the rate to the dollar that has been the primary reference for the pound.

In the last 18 months the dollar index has pushed up from around the 80 mark, a level that had been fairly steady for the last 10 years, to the current level of about 97. During the first 12 months of the dollar increase the pound held on fairly well but in the last 6 months since the leave campaign gained momentum, depreciation has set in big time, down from around 1.60 to 1.38. The current level is the lowest point on the chart I use going back 25 years.

Anyone who thinks that leaving the EU will create an improvement in the pound is delusional. The leave brigade tell you that other countries trade with the EU without a problem but it is only half the story. What they say is perfectly true but these countries have a mechanism in place that allows them to do so. The UK trades with Europe and other countries based on approval under EU legislation, take away the legislation and the UK cannot export.

The UK can create its own legislation, very true but it would have to mirror the EU legislation to be acceptable so what will be gained. Do some homework on 'CE' marking.

A vote to leave the EU would be a clear mandate for the government to raise taxes to pay for the changes, after all the electorate voted for the change to take place. Be careful what you wish for.

[chiang mai]

+1

And I think that not just from a UK perspective but from a me in Thailand perspective, GBP exchange rate will sink, even further.

[edwinchester]

A five year GBP term deposit these days will get you about 2.8%

I'll stick with gold then.

Gold made far worse on last 5 years in Thailand...

One of our friends has been buying gold these last few years and seems to have done quite well from it.

18k bht seems to be a very good support looking at that chart.