SURVEY: How bad is the economic outlook for Thailand?

[elgordo38]

The Thai's have been digging this big hole for a long time, its now starting to catch up with them.

Talk to the average Thai in small business here and find out how it really is....Not Good

But they are still digging that hole.

Most politicians just want to get through their "shift" pack as much money in their suitcases as they can and move on to the next position. By the time they retire they receive multiple pensions. They leave a mess behind for the next "crew" to clean up and explain to the people its been that way for decades and the chickens are finally coming home to roost.

[wabothai]

As longs as figures like the TAT madame are calling the shots, thailand will suffer economic collapse and eventually will be taken over by China.

[elgordo38]

Virtually every major sector within the Thai economy underperforms, such as the real estate market, tourism sector, service sector and exports. Ultimately, rate cuts will not help to strengthen the economy. One doesn't have to look toward Europe, Americas and Japan for this failed policy.

Short term stimulus are also false pretenses and will not help grow the economy in the long term. What's promising though is much of the mega infrastructure projects that are now underway. However, Thailand needs to reform its weak educational sector and take immediate steps toward curbing widespread corruption.

In a globalized economy, any country that are willing to adapt into immediate changes are the ones that will survive and achieve stable growth. That makes it imperative to invest widely and not become too dependent on one sector only. For an example, we realize how devastating it has become for oil producing nations that have been unwillingly to invest in different areas within their economies.

Please please enough of the common sense already. Lets get back to the real business at hand. Submarines, tanks, patrol boats, more troops, missiles, new guns, trains to nowhere and no doubt new planes as well. As for the economy let them eat cake.

[Jessi]

If I go into Malls I always look at what the people are carrying.

Not a lot of shopping these days most just window shoppers

or meeting friends for coffee etc.

Where I live there are a lot of empty shops and they are still building new malls.

Many international company's have packed up & left Thailand and a lot of the workforce

have returned to the village to stay with family. They cant grow rice with the water shortage

so from what I see things are going to get a lot worse.

[chainarong]

You can only gage what is happening in other countries to see a flow on effect drifting Thailand's way, although the Junta inspired government would be a turnoff for some not all the blame can be leveled in their direction , at least not for now, they haven't entirely killed the pig yet , but if they continue to hang onto power this will certainly start the ball rolling for domestic instability and economic loss, Thailand is like many other western countries that supply goods to China , with China's slow down everyone else will too, the domino effect , Thailand's unemployment rate is expected to rise dramatically ( Regardless of official quotes ) this coming year a sure sign of things to come. .......................

[NongKhaiKid]

My test for this is simple, after a trip to the supermarket I see the items in my trolley get less and less while the cost goes up and up.

[1FinickyOne]

I see that in the countryside, though the farmers have been doing ok the last 4-5 years, now everyone has a tractor and or a pick-up truck and debt...

I would say that corresponds to the fewer shoppers that tend to be out... it seems people do not seem to have much money to spend.

[kareona]

Statistics from the Bank of Thailand indicate that farm income, on which a lot of people rely for their livelihood, has dropped more than 20 percent in the past two years due to a drop in production and prices. The impact on consumption and national income will be huge in the coming years.

https://www.bot.or.th/English/Statistics/Graph/Pages/FarmIncome.aspx

[NanLaew]

This Survey needs the qualifier, " compared to other countries on the region"

The economic outlook is not good for most countries, and Thailand is not different,

but compared to others countries in the region , IMO and the opinion of others, Thailand by virtue of existing infrastructure and central location is poised to do better than most

... but comparatively, relatively and ultimately it will STILL suck.

[Ondral]

The entire global economy is already in a large scale economic downturn. International trade is in serious decline as measured by metrics such as the Baltic Dry Index which reached the lowest value in its history recently. All the quantitative easing, negative interest rates, and bank bail-in schemes cannot possibly correct the extreme market distortions created by the international banking cartel's greed and corruption. I think Thailand will be a relatively good place to ride out the coming storm, given the structure of its national economy.

[PT4]

​Further, there are quite a few companies and especially Japanese companies in Thailand who simply won't employ new young graduates and even more so if they have never worked. This is a big shock to the new graduates who are locked into the idea that they are entitled to a job and many believe they are entitled to an immediate managerial position.

Very interesting. "Scorecard", I hope you'll explain more about this attitude of entitlement that you see. It could be an important factor in the economic outlook here. In my own country (USA) wherever I've observed attitudes of entitlement, it is always surrounded by the smell of failure.

[Usual Suspect]

I based my vote on how I see the state of Thai agriculture.

For years now I've seen my wife's family toil on the land, OK we now have a tractor, but only a handful of implements are available here.

Thai farmers IMO are the backbone of this country, yet they are seen as 3rd class citizens, & are just pawns in the various games of Thai corruption linked to the agri-sector.. riddled with 'soft loans' for struggling farmers.

Take a look on youtube..there's lots of videos from Cambodia, India, Vietnam..all using good machines, all growing lush crops of rice, all planting rice into water-filled fields, each of these countries are both encouraged, & helped to grow more efficiently..every ASEAN country that is except one!

Farmers here do not even have proper seed-drills...yet the invention came out in the mid 1700's!

Why is it that this country is so reluctant to move forward..?

[PT4]

​

The entire global economy is already in a large scale economic downturn. ... I think Thailand will be a relatively good place to ride out the coming storm, given the structure of its national economy.

​

​"Ondral", I agree with you regarding Thailand as a relatively good place in a storm. But why do you think it will be relatively good? I'll offer a few of my reasons. Hopefully you and others on the "sunny side" of this question can offer more.

​

​1. Thailand government is part monarchy. Historically, in all countries, monarchs tend to preserve the resources of their countries better than democracies. (Ref: Hans-Hermann Hoppe, "Democracy, The God That Failed") The institution of the monarchy is a positive factor for the future of Thailand's economy.

​

​2. Thailand has an operating gold mine, which boasts very low costs. If the price/scarcity of gold increases dramatically, Thailand will benefit.

​

​3. Besides gold in the ground, there is a massive amount of gold in jewelry and bullion here, in private hands. Gold is always and everywhere is good store of wealth. In the late stages of economic depression, some gold wealth in Thailand will move out of hoards into productive means here. But countries without stored wealth will be without the means to do anything. (For example, my own country, the USA.)

​

​4. The Thai economy is a diverse blend of all levels of production: farming and fishing, lots of manufacturing of all sizes, and plenty of different services. It is not dominated by just one or two resources or items of production.

​

​5. Thailand has a great amount of infrastructure: roads, railroads, ports, dams, telecoms and Internet. Not top class, but they are built already and they do work. Now, all that's necessary is to maintain them in working condition -- which is always the challenge here.

​

​6. Thailand is not burdened with labor unions or other effects of socialist thinking, such as "equal opportunity" laws. That leaves it free to change and adapt quickly and easily to new economic conditions. In the coming economic storms, those that adopt quickly are likely to survive and thrive.

​

​7. The government education system here is awful, but, I've observed that, given an opportunity, most Thai people are clever and eager to learn. That innate intelligence is a huge "national resource" which will benefit Thailand during the coming economic storms.

​

​8. Thailand does not allow unrestricted immigration/invasion. Countries from France to Australia are already suffering from this. If Thailand, and the other countries of SE Asia continue to hold firm, they can escape that scourge.

​

​Other thoughts, please.

[Jessi]

I based my vote on how I see the state of Thai agriculture.

For years now I've seen my wife's family toil on the land, OK we now have a tractor, but only a handful of implements are available here.

Thai farmers IMO are the backbone of this country, yet they are seen as 3rd class citizens, & are just pawns in the various games of Thai corruption linked to the agri-sector.. riddled with 'soft loans' for struggling farmers.

Take a look on youtube..there's lots of videos from Cambodia, India, Vietnam..all using good machines, all growing lush crops of rice, all planting rice into water-filled fields, each of these countries are both encouraged, & helped to grow more efficiently..every ASEAN country that is except one!

Farmers here do not even have proper seed-drills...yet the invention came out in the mid 1700's!

Why is it that this country is so reluctant to move forward..?

"Why is it that this country is so reluctant to move forward..?"

Corruption & Greed

[Enoon]

I based my vote on how I see the state of Thai agriculture.

For years now I've seen my wife's family toil on the land, OK we now have a tractor, but only a handful of implements are available here.

Thai farmers IMO are the backbone of this country, yet they are seen as 3rd class citizens, & are just pawns in the various games of Thai corruption linked to the agri-sector.. riddled with 'soft loans' for struggling farmers.

Take a look on youtube..there's lots of videos from Cambodia, India, Vietnam..all using good machines, all growing lush crops of rice, all planting rice into water-filled fields, each of these countries are both encouraged, & helped to grow more efficiently..every ASEAN country that is except one!

Farmers here do not even have proper seed-drills...yet the invention came out in the mid 1700's!

Why is it that this country is so reluctant to move forward..?

"Why is it that this country is so reluctant to move forward..?"

Because a small number of people directly and disproportionately benefit that way. It doesn't move forward, but they do:

Internal colonialism - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

"For those familiar with the subject, 'internal colonialism' is a notion of structural political and economic inequalities between regions within a nation state. The term is used to describe the uneven effects of economic development on a regional basis, otherwise known as "uneven development", and to describe the exploitation of minority groups within a wider society. This is held to be similar to the relationship between metropole and colony, in colonialism proper."

Thailand is in the list of examples.

[Eric Loh]

"Thailand needs to reform its weak educational sector and take immediate steps toward curbing widespread corruption." Like.... change "needs" to "cant, wont and incapable"

Education is the one I emphasize. As said a million times the rote education at P and M level is a total failure, and In most universities educators are banging their heads against the wall to get bachelor students to come to class, come on time, come back to class after lunch on time, stop play games / messaging all day on their smartphones, listen, take notes, contribute to team case study work, stop cheating in exams, etc etc etc. And to stop the widely held concept that if you fail it's all OK because you can ask for a make up exam or give blood three times and your grade will be changed to A. When professors say NO to make up exams / extra assignments we often get the response 'but that's unfair'.

Further, there are quite a few companies and especially Japanese companies in Thailand who simply won't employ new young graduates and even more so if they have never worked. This is a big shock to the new graduates who are locked into the idea that they are entitled to a job and many believe they are entitled to an immediate managerial position.

Rote learning is focus of education in South Korea, Taiwan, China and even Singapore in his building years and these are among the best performing tiger economies of Asia. Care to comment?

[Ghostnigel]

Wish i could believe those results, the baht is eating the british pound alive....?

[Roomuck]

I said poor, and it will remain that way - as long as Thailand has the worst English language skills in Asia which it does..

In Asia, no, in ASEAN yes. Mongolia just one country for example.

[Roomuck]

​

The entire global economy is already in a large scale economic downturn. ... I think Thailand will be a relatively good place to ride out the coming storm, given the structure of its national economy.

​

​"Ondral", I agree with you regarding Thailand as a relatively good place in a storm. But why do you think it will be relatively good? I'll offer a few of my reasons. Hopefully you and others on the "sunny side" of this question can offer more.

​

​1. Thailand government is part monarchy. Historically, in all countries, monarchs tend to preserve the resources of their countries better than democracies. (Ref: Hans-Hermann Hoppe, "Democracy, The God That Failed") The institution of the monarchy is a positive factor for the future of Thailand's economy.

​

​2. Thailand has an operating gold mine, which boasts very low costs. If the price/scarcity of gold increases dramatically, Thailand will benefit.

​

​3. Besides gold in the ground, there is a massive amount of gold in jewelry and bullion here, in private hands. Gold is always and everywhere is good store of wealth. In the late stages of economic depression, some gold wealth in Thailand will move out of hoards into productive means here. But countries without stored wealth will be without the means to do anything. (For example, my own country, the USA.)

​

​4. The Thai economy is a diverse blend of all levels of production: farming and fishing, lots of manufacturing of all sizes, and plenty of different services. It is not dominated by just one or two resources or items of production.

​

​5. Thailand has a great amount of infrastructure: roads, railroads, ports, dams, telecoms and Internet. Not top class, but they are built already and they do work. Now, all that's necessary is to maintain them in working condition -- which is always the challenge here.

​

​6. Thailand is not burdened with labor unions or other effects of socialist thinking, such as "equal opportunity" laws. That leaves it free to change and adapt quickly and easily to new economic conditions. In the coming economic storms, those that adopt quickly are likely to survive and thrive.

​

​7. The government education system here is awful, but, I've observed that, given an opportunity, most Thai people are clever and eager to learn. That innate intelligence is a huge "national resource" which will benefit Thailand during the coming economic storms.

​

​8. Thailand does not allow unrestricted immigration/invasion. Countries from France to Australia are already suffering from this. If Thailand, and the other countries of SE Asia continue to hold firm, they can escape that scourge.

​

​Other thoughts, please.

True, true, true.

They also have NEGATIVE unemployment, more jobs than people to fill them. So they exploit 3+ million Cambodians, Laotians and Burmese to do all the undesirable jobs.

Smart people these Thais. Create the work, and use resources available to them.

I had a swimming pool built. Thai boss showed up with a pickup full of Cambodians in the mornings. The Cambodians hand dug the pool and did everything else, concrete, tiles etc. Thai boss would spend the day with his Mia noi before returning to drive them home in the evenings and go home to his wife.

[jadee]

I chose 'very poor' in the survey and was surprised not have voted in the most popular category. I remember reading something about the World Bank forecasting that Thailand's GDP growth will contract 20% this year, from 2.5% last year to 2% this year. Of course that's just a forecast and who knows how they come up with that figure. In terms of things I've actually noticed, I left Thailand last June and when I returned in December I noticed that the price of some food items had increased.

[sirineou]

This Survey needs the qualifier, " compared to other countries on the region"

The economic outlook is not good for most countries, and Thailand is not different,

but compared to others countries in the region , IMO and the opinion of others, Thailand by virtue of existing infrastructure and central location is poised to do better than most

I doubt it. The GDP for Thailand compared to the other ASEAN countries is at or just about at the bottom

To be fair, the 2016 forecasts are not good, But the fundamentals for long term prospects are good

Dont claim to be an expert on the subject , far from it, but.

below are rankings as of 2015

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ASEAN_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

[asdecas]

"Thailand needs to reform its weak educational sector and take immediate steps toward curbing widespread corruption." Like.... change "needs" to "cant, wont and incapable"

Education is the one I emphasize. As said a million times the rote education at P and M level is a total failure, and In most universities educators are banging their heads against the wall to get bachelor students to come to class, come on time, come back to class after lunch on time, stop play games / messaging all day on their smartphones, listen, take notes, contribute to team case study work, stop cheating in exams, etc etc etc. And to stop the widely held concept that if you fail it's all OK because you can ask for a make up exam or give blood three times and your grade will be changed to A. When professors say NO to make up exams / extra assignments we often get the response 'but that's unfair'.

Further, there are quite a few companies and especially Japanese companies in Thailand who simply won't employ new young graduates and even more so if they have never worked. This is a big shock to the new graduates who are locked into the idea that they are entitled to a job and many believe they are entitled to an immediate managerial position.

yea and changing students thought process is near on impossible because its part of the culture and virtually institutionalised !

Which all goes right back to the rote learning in primary and secondary school - just believe what the teachers says, don't ask questions (not allowed to ask questions), etc., students never learn to to analyze, therefore they can't formulate questions, plus they never learn how to construct discussion, in any language.

I have a perspective on this that spans a complete generation. I have to say it is grim to observe that, despite all the money almost literally thrown, (that which has not been embezzled), at education in Thailand, standards of critical thinking, literacy, numeracy, language and interpersonal skills and so on, have if anything worsened.

The extent is such that one wonders whether the aim of those who control the political life, and hence the budget, in this country is only to pay lip service towards improvement in standards; perhaps the true intention is simply to continue keeping the rump of the population in ignorant servitude, as has historically been the case.

[wowfactor10]

Maybe instead of restrictions it can help to ease visa regulations and to ease to property laws so the place becomes more foreigner and investor friendly..It might give Thai economy some boost.

[AZBill]

Nobody wants to do business with a dictatorship,

[NeverSure]

I can see this clueless government actually bankrupting the country.

You do realize that Thailand isn't in the EU?? (Or about to vote on fleeing from it).

In economic issues you can easily link to articles predicting that any particular country is improving or stagnant or heading into recession, including all the major western countries. Economists have predicted 20 of the last 3 recessions, to use an old adage,

The whole world is facing economic headwinds, especially those countries that are dependent on commodities. Even Saudi Arabia is contemplating borrowing money to fund government programs.

And as far as bankrupting the country for future generations goes:

It's important to get this into perspective. A third world country doesn't have the natural resources (oil, croplands that can grow something more valuable than rice or sugar, etc) or the education, technology or other pieces of an economic engine that can sustain debt.

After the nonstop moaning about US debt, note that it is lower than the UK and many others. Yet the US does have the above mentioned things to sustain it.

On the right side we see perhaps less debt, but a helluva lot lower GDP per capita and personal incomes per capita. We see countries with a lack of technology and perhaps relying on just one thing that could crash, as in Russia and oil. While on the above chart Russia looks "not bad," it is broke, its currency has little value and its people are very poor. It's a one-trick pony with a broken leg.

The countries that would worry me most are those "advanced countries" like Spain, Italy, Greece, Belgium and Ireland which have high levels of debt but nothing to show for it in economic flexibility. Greece of course is in a league of its own for being the poster child for all that is wrong with socialism and is hopeless.

Cheers.

[BSJ]

I am not a financial expert but even I can see the world economy is in serious trouble. From my prospective as an Aussie it's been a bit hard to take when your exchange rate goes from 32.5 baht to the $ down to 24.5 baht!

What that means is the new Mitsubishi Sports I wanted, ain't gunna happen! The big screen TV, ain't gunna happen. Extraneous spending on anything ain't gunna happen.

But I guess some will be worse off than I, so I won't complain too much!

[asdecas]

I am not a financial expert but even I can see the world economy is in serious trouble. From my prospective as an Aussie it's been a bit hard to take when your exchange rate goes from 32.5 baht to the $ down to 24.5 baht!

What that means is the new Mitsubishi Sports I wanted, ain't gunna happen! The big screen TV, ain't gunna happen. Extraneous spending on anything ain't gunna happen.

But I guess some will be worse off than I, so I won't complain too much!

What, a wingeing Aussie? Leave it to the Poms, Sport.

[spidermike007]

There are so many issues to be considered here. But first and foremost, is the fact that there are so few competent people within the administration, to tackle this massive problem. At least the finance minister has some experience within the financial sector. Highly unusual for a Thai administration. But, how many others do? How much real talent do they have?

And what are they doing to promote trade? Are they offering any special incentives (like Malaysia and Vietnam have been doing for some time) for foreign firms to re-locate here? 10 year visas for the executives, tax deferments, ability to purchase land outright, etc.

We know how little they are doing to promote tourism. With the exception of China, it almost seems as if they are actively discouraging Western tourism. There are so many things that allow one to make a conclusion like that.

So, what are they doing? What proactive and visionary actions are they taking?

[DefaultName]

As long as Face takes precedence over Reason in business, Thailand will have problems.

[Kabula]

Examine the world economy; stocks, margin calls, credit defaults, bonds, bail ins, oil prices, and currency devaluations, and there is your answer to all countries in my opinion!