SURVEY: How bad is the economic outlook for Thailand?

[Scott]

The economic data indicate that Thailand will continue to see a slowing and possibly a shrinking of the economy. With a weak outlook for Thai export growth and the drought, how serious do you think the economic impact will be?

Please feel free to leave a comment.

Export shipments for the first quarter are expected to shrink 5 percent

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/899647-export-shipments-for-the-first-quarter-are-expected-to-shrink-5-percent/?hl=%2Beconomic+%2Bgrowth


Thai private sector predicts no growth in export this year
http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/899344-thai-private-sector-predicts-no-growth-in-export-this-year/?hl=%2Beconomic+%2Bgrowth


Thaksin Shinawatra warns govt about Thailands economy
http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/897444-thaksin-shinawatra-warns-govt-about-thailands-economy/?hl=%20economic%20%20growth

[Hawk]

I can see this clueless government actually bankrupting the country.

[salavan]

are you talking about the uk hawk

[sirineou]

This Survey needs the qualifier, " compared to other countries on the region"

The economic outlook is not good for most countries, and Thailand is not different,

but compared to others countries in the region , IMO and the opinion of others, Thailand by virtue of existing infrastructure and central location is poised to do better than most

Edited March 5, 2016 by sirineou

[phoenixdoglover]

I am pessimistic. The government will not acknowledge the true picture, which I fear is worse than reported.

The steep drop in FDI is especially notable. This implies long term issues with recapturing economic development momentum.

The current government promotion of the "sufficiency economy" is underwhelming.

Edited March 5, 2016 by phoenixdoglover

[canathai8]

I said poor, and it will remain that way - as long as Thailand has the worst English language skills in Asia which it does..

[Credo]

I think the situation will be exacerbated by the drought. In the past, when there was an economic downturn, workers could return to the village and help with farming. This year there will be little farming, unless there is suddenly a lot of rain.

There is also the change in demographics. A lot more older people dependent on fewer young people for their survival.

Combine this with the political unrest and it could get very interesting.

[Shroud]

Virtually every major sector within the Thai economy underperforms, such as the real estate market, tourism sector, service sector and exports. Ultimately, rate cuts will not help to strengthen the economy. One doesn't have to look toward Europe, Americas and Japan for this failed policy.

Short term stimulus are also false pretenses and will not help grow the economy in the long term. What's promising though is much of the mega infrastructure projects that are now underway. However, Thailand needs to reform its weak educational sector and take immediate steps toward curbing widespread corruption.

In a globalized economy, any country that are willing to adapt into immediate changes are the ones that will survive and achieve stable growth. That makes it imperative to invest widely and not become too dependent on one sector only. For an example, we realize how devastating it has become for oil producing nations that have been unwillingly to invest in different areas within their economies.

[uthaithanirules]

Thailand, any asean country is still a better bet than the EU, Russia

[kingalfred]

"Thailand needs to reform its weak educational sector and take immediate steps toward curbing widespread corruption." Like.... change "needs" to "cant, wont and incapable"

Edited March 6, 2016 by kingalfred

[leeneeds]

Projects ear marked to start in gold, copper, potash , are but a few of the potential extra earners for the governments GDP, where exsorbiant wages are not payed across the board as in other mining countries , and commodities being down mainly, where gold has entered back into the bull market , I see signs of a shift in the economy's perceived normal earners,

and the out look, if the rains come, will put Thailand in a better position than they are at the moment, so I am optomistic on the future,

[Robbie Dye]

Hope the Baht drops like a stone!

[gandalf12]

This Survey needs the qualifier, " compared to other countries on the region"

The economic outlook is not good for most countries, and Thailand is not different,

but compared to others countries in the region , IMO and the opinion of others, Thailand by virtue of existing infrastructure and central location is poised to do better than most

I doubt it. The GDP for Thailand compared to the other ASEAN countries is at or just about at the bottom

[scorecard]

"Thailand needs to reform its weak educational sector and take immediate steps toward curbing widespread corruption." Like.... change "needs" to "cant, wont and incapable"

Education is the one I emphasize. As said a million times the rote education at P and M level is a total failure, and In most universities educators are banging their heads against the wall to get bachelor students to come to class, come on time, come back to class after lunch on time, stop play games / messaging all day on their smartphones, listen, take notes, contribute to team case study work, stop cheating in exams, etc etc etc. And to stop the widely held concept that if you fail it's all OK because you can ask for a make up exam or give blood three times and your grade will be changed to A. When professors say NO to make up exams / extra assignments we often get the response 'but that's unfair'.

Further, there are quite a few companies and especially Japanese companies in Thailand who simply won't employ new young graduates and even more so if they have never worked. This is a big shock to the new graduates who are locked into the idea that they are entitled to a job and many believe they are entitled to an immediate managerial position.

[shunter]

The whole world is heading for a recession not just Thailand irrespective of whatever administration may be in power the country will be affected by the financial woes spreading around the world.

The impact may be lessened by the fact that the economy is still very influenced by agrarian and assorted inward looking policies and basic survival skills plus the old fashioned family unit structure where resources are pooled and all work together.

However whichever way one looks there are storm clouds on the horizon, no doubt though we will weather and ride out the storm one way or another..

[kingalfred]

"Thailand needs to reform its weak educational sector and take immediate steps toward curbing widespread corruption." Like.... change "needs" to "cant, wont and incapable"

Education is the one I emphasize. As said a million times the rote education at P and M level is a total failure, and In most universities educators are banging their heads against the wall to get bachelor students to come to class, come on time, come back to class after lunch on time, stop play games / messaging all day on their smartphones, listen, take notes, contribute to team case study work, stop cheating in exams, etc etc etc. And to stop the widely held concept that if you fail it's all OK because you can ask for a make up exam or give blood three times and your grade will be changed to A. When professors say NO to make up exams / extra assignments we often get the response 'but that's unfair'.

Further, there are quite a few companies and especially Japanese companies in Thailand who simply won't employ new young graduates and even more so if they have never worked. This is a big shock to the new graduates who are locked into the idea that they are entitled to a job and many believe they are entitled to an immediate managerial position.

yea and changing students thought process is near on impossible because its part of the culture and virtually institutionalised ! Edited March 6, 2016 by kingalfred

[scorecard]

"Thailand needs to reform its weak educational sector and take immediate steps toward curbing widespread corruption." Like.... change "needs" to "cant, wont and incapable"

Education is the one I emphasize. As said a million times the rote education at P and M level is a total failure, and In most universities educators are banging their heads against the wall to get bachelor students to come to class, come on time, come back to class after lunch on time, stop play games / messaging all day on their smartphones, listen, take notes, contribute to team case study work, stop cheating in exams, etc etc etc. And to stop the widely held concept that if you fail it's all OK because you can ask for a make up exam or give blood three times and your grade will be changed to A. When professors say NO to make up exams / extra assignments we often get the response 'but that's unfair'.

Further, there are quite a few companies and especially Japanese companies in Thailand who simply won't employ new young graduates and even more so if they have never worked. This is a big shock to the new graduates who are locked into the idea that they are entitled to a job and many believe they are entitled to an immediate managerial position.

yea and changing students thought process is near on impossible because its part of the culture and virtually institutionalised !

Which all goes right back to the rote learning in primary and secondary school - just believe what the teachers says, don't ask questions (not allowed to ask questions), etc., students never learn to to analyze, therefore they can't formulate questions, plus they never learn how to construct discussion, in any language.

[overherebc]

I could be reading the signs wrongly, maybe because I want to see them? but a lot of things look very similar to the months before 97.

More and more 2nd hand car lots springing up, a lot of building going on with houses that seem to sit empty for a long time when finished.

If it does happen again I don't think it will be as bad or have such a long term effect.

[Suradit69]

I can see this clueless government actually bankrupting the country.

You do realize that Thailand isn't in the EU?? (Or about to vote on fleeing from it).

In economic issues you can easily link to articles predicting that any particular country is improving or stagnant or heading into recession, including all the major western countries. Economists have predicted 20 of the last 3 recessions, to use an old adage,

The whole world is facing economic headwinds, especially those countries that are dependent on commodities. Even Saudi Arabia is contemplating borrowing money to fund government programs.

And as far as bankrupting the country for future generations goes:

Edited March 6, 2016 by Suradit69

[asdecas]

You're asking the regulars at ThaiVisa this question? Ooh ha, Missus, there's people here who still think the whole of the SET is crooked and that pla ra is an Egyptian fish god.

[little mary sunshine]

Bleak comes to mind....Awful if you are trying to

Sell a condo in Pattaya!!

[Eric Loh]

The macro economic negativities like FDI, export etc are well documented. You can't blame that all totally to global woes as many of our peer countries like Vietnam, Phillipines and even Canbodia and Laos are faring much better.

I can comment about the micro ground level situation since I am in manufacturing and service industries. Numbers don't lie and looking at sales revenues, profitability, manufacturing output; the declining outlook is worrying and this year is the worst since the Bangkok shutdown.

The service is faring even worse. Restaurant receipts are down massively. People are more guarded with their money fearing worsening economic condition. A good gauge is surveying the big supermarkets like Tesco and Big C and the lesser customers shopping is highly visible. Malls that used to be packed with cars now have empty lots even on weekends. More people spend time at the mall for the comfort and kill time.

Honestly, it will only get better with an elected government,period.

[overherebc]

You're asking the regulars at ThaiVisa this question? Ooh ha, Missus, there's people here who still think the whole of the SET is crooked and that pla ra is an Egyptian fish god.

That's because they're in DeNile !!!!

[eliotness]

So much is out of Thai hands. An increasing dependence on China could be main factor. If China crashes or at least undergoes a severe dip then Thailand will feel some pain.

[Eric Loh]

So much is out of Thai hands. An increasing dependence on China could be main factor. If China crashes or at least undergoes a severe dip then Thailand will feel some pain.

The trade data don't support your views. Export and import to China is 12% & 15% respectively. Our main export are cars, electronic and main import is oil. None are feature highly in China economic make-up. Commodity dependence economies will feel most of a depressed China pain.

[sawadee1947]

This Survey needs the qualifier, " compared to other countries on the region"

The economic outlook is not good for most countries, and Thailand is not different,

but compared to others countries in the region , IMO and the opinion of others, Thailand by virtue of existing infrastructure and central location is poised to do better than most

well, you might be right.....if somebody would know how to run a country. I presume soldiers are not dedicated to do so?

[eliotness]

So much is out of Thai hands. An increasing dependence on China could be main factor. If China crashes or at least undergoes a severe dip then Thailand will feel some pain.

The trade data don't support your views. Export and import to China is 12% & 15% respectively. Our main export are cars, electronic and main import is oil. None are feature highly in China economic make-up. Commodity dependence economies will feel most of a depressed China pain.

OK, I stand corrected, but you did miss out the Chinese tourists. Just a niggle, sorry, but your grammar could improve a bit !

[JacChang]

This isn't just a country based problem anymore. As I've looked through companies from around the globe's financial statements, most of the bigger players and industry are generally going downhill. And the problem magnifies in the sense that, the companies and government have already used up most of their possible bullets.

For company-wise, most have already sacrificed their profit margin close to nil in order to raise revenue, basically not making any money in an attempt to squeeze out any last attempt of growth. We see this as a lousy attempt on paper that shows revenue increasing but net profit decreasing.

Government wise, most countries have already decreased the interest rates to a very low percentage, in an attempt to boost the economy. With Japan's new negative interest rates, "SPEND IT OR ELSE.... If you save it, I will take it away little by little."

Conclusion, if the "backup forces" that is supposed to rescue and fix this economy problem is already at work, and the economy is still going down. Trust me, the reality is actually uglier than what we see now.

[Jessi]

The Thai's have been digging this big hole for a long time, its now starting to catch up with them.

Talk to the average Thai in small business here and find out how it really is....Not Good

But they are still digging that hole.

[NongKhaiKid]

At least we have the comfort of knowing all is really well as the govt tells us so and has the figures to prove it.

Wouldn't saying otherwise constitute that banned activity, CRITICISM ?