Is it too late to stop the Donald Trump machine?

[DrTuner]

I can't wait for the main fight to begin. Since Trump has been payrolling the politicians for ages, he must have a huge arsenal at his disposal. And won't have to suck up to any delegates anymore. Let loose the dogs of war!

[thaibeachlovers]

There's a primary in Indiana next Monday. Let's see how Trump does. Not that long ago he was predicted to lose it.

Oh, speaking of predictions. The "experts" have counted Trump out since last July when he entered. I hope they are looking for new jobs.

Cheers.

According to this poll, Cruz is leading in Indiana.

http://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2016/04/30/poll-cruz-leads-trump-indiana/83755438/

I personally can't stand Cruz. But him winning Indiana keeps it interesting....and entertaining.

If he wins enough delegates that the Donald doesn't get enough to be uncontested it will make for an entertaining convention, given that the GOP boys hate Cruz as much as Trump. No doubt they are in meetings trying to work out how to give 10% Kasich the nomination.

[Dagnabbit]

Trump's odds in Las Vegas of winning the Republican party nomination have never been greater than as of this morning, 1-8, or the probability percentage of 88.8%.

HRC has sky-high odds to win the Democratic party nomination of 1-50, or the probability percentage of 98%.

So both of 'em are hollering at each other with Trump of course hollering the loudest. Bernie's trying to squeak in between 'em to holler at Hillary. So here's the real reality check....

Vegas odds this morning, to be elected Potus on November 8th:

HRC has odds to win of 2-7 or the probability percentage of 77.8%

Donald Trump has odds to win of 11-4 or the probability percentage of 26.6%

The line on the winning party in November, no names

Democratic Party has odds to win of 1-3 or the probability percentage of 75%

Republican Party has odds to win of 5-2 or the probability percentage of 28.7%

Independent has odds of 50-1 (1.96%)

These odds do not take into account what happens between now and the elections...of course.

They are published way too early...before the starting gates have even opened. So they are not valid.

Hillary will lose more and more followers, as Trump gains momentum (republican backing).

To see him overcome the odds (almost no republican backing) and, in effect, become their nominee...will swing those odds more in his favor.

Also, Democrats are stupidly wreaking havoc at each and every opportunity. This will be their downfall. Hillary has not yet escaped her past...that is still up in the air.

Too many variables. All the cards are not on the table...so too early to bet.

Too early to tell.

Oddsmaking is a futures market.

There's lots of bucks made in any futures market always. Nothing is perfect, but the only time oddsmakers have been off in an election of Potus is the year 2000 election....and everyone knows what happened back then. The chads makers prevailed instead of the oddsmakers.

The reality of the futures markets in this election says the Republican party nominee and the Republican party itself have no future. The oddsmakers btw have been saying this since soon after the middle of last year when they opened their doors to global oddsmaking on this election.

Their record in each election of Potus, from the early stages to the finish line of election day is virtually 100% accurate. In 2012 for instance, the oddsmakers always favored Barack Obama for reelection. Going into election day the odds on Obama winning reelection were 1-5, or an 83% percentage probability. Throughout the 2012 campaign, Barack Obama was the odds-on favorite.

HRC has been the odds-on favorite since South Carolina, which was the fourth contest, the second primary election. Youse guyz keep trying to fight City Hall but you never get used to City Hall always winning in the end.

Odds aren't predictive and oddsmakers are not fortune tellers.

They are mathematicians. As bets come in, they shorten/lengthen odds to make bets more/less appealing. This re-balancing ensures they make a profit.

[ttthailand]

I think Trump will get the required delegates and will go on to the general election. With Hillary to run against I think he will also win and be our next president. Everyone is sick and tired of the current elected officials and now want an outsider. If the democrats were smart they would elect Sanders and have a chance.

I don't really care for Trump but I don't think America can take another 4 years of pandering to big business and special interests. Sanders is my first pick followed by Trump. Going to be interesting.

[boomerangutang]

Two of the good things that are manifesting in this primary season:

>>> more people worldwide are becoming aware of the American election cycle and its candidates. I'm not talking details or individual candidates, but rather the general overview. Many people worldwide are stuck in countries (like Thailand, China, S.Arabia, N.Korea) which don't have democracies. They ordinarily aren't aware of the concept of various candidates vying for high office. In about half the countries ww, powerless citizens have to put up with self-appointed generals, or family members of prior dictators. Getting wind of US politics, for all its flaws, will get them thinking about alternatives to no-choice, self-installed, iron-fisted rule.

>>> With the circus atmosphere currently happening in the US, it's getting people discussing issues / personalities, whatever. People are getting more engaged in what's going on. That will therefore prompt more folks to get off their fat butts to vote. That will get more votes for Dem candidates, because Reps generally vote in larger percentages, even in non-presidential voting cycles (that's why reps usually win more seats during a non-presidential years).

I know this will bug the crap out of conservatives, but grid your loins for Dems taking over Rep seats. Along with that, will be one or more liberal-thinking S.Court justices (It's such a relief that Rhenquist and Scalia ars off the court. Not only did they unfairly enable Bush Jr to win in 2000 with less votes than Gore, but they were dangerously right of right wing). Also, with more liberal & sensible leanings among the majority of voters, things like pot and hemp legalization will be more plausible. Along with that: the end to the awful War on Drugs, and perhaps a bit of sanity concerning Pharma Drugs and soaring medical expenses.

[thaibeachlovers]

Two of the good things that are manifesting in this primary season:

>>> more people worldwide are becoming aware of the American election cycle and its candidates. I'm not talking details or individual candidates, but rather the general overview. Many people worldwide are stuck in countries (like Thailand, China, S.Arabia, N.Korea) which don't have democracies. They ordinarily aren't aware of the concept of various candidates vying for high office. In about half the countries ww, powerless citizens have to put up with self-appointed generals, or family members of prior dictators. Getting wind of US politics, for all its flaws, will get them thinking about alternatives to no-choice, self-installed, iron-fisted rule.

>>> With the circus atmosphere currently happening in the US, it's getting people discussing issues / personalities, whatever. People are getting more engaged in what's going on. That will therefore prompt more folks to get off their fat butts to vote. That will get more votes for Dem candidates, because Reps generally vote in larger percentages, even in non-presidential voting cycles (that's why reps usually win more seats during a non-presidential years).

I know this will bug the crap out of conservatives, but grid your loins for Dems taking over Rep seats. Along with that, will be one or more liberal-thinking S.Court justices (It's such a relief that Rhenquist and Scalia ars off the court. Not only did they unfairly enable Bush Jr to win in 2000 with less votes than Gore, but they were dangerously right of right wing). Also, with more liberal & sensible leanings among the majority of voters, things like pot and hemp legalization will be more plausible. Along with that: the end to the awful War on Drugs, and perhaps a bit of sanity concerning Pharma Drugs and soaring medical expenses.

Re your last paragraph, and assuming HRC will win, you can't be serious that she will deal with big pharma! HRC is in the pocket of the 1% and she is 1% herself. No way she'll rock the money boys of the US. Given the "war on drugs" is a big money spinner for the police and prison sector she's not going to change anything. IMO HRC is all about money and should be a Republican.

I reckon that if the GOP boys can't get Kasich elected, HRC is their next best choice.

[NeverSure]

There's a primary in Indiana next Monday. Let's see how Trump does. Not that long ago he was predicted to lose it.

Oh, speaking of predictions. The "experts" have counted Trump out since last July when he entered. I hope they are looking for new jobs.

Cheers.

According to this poll, Cruz is leading in Indiana.

http://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2016/04/30/poll-cruz-leads-trump-indiana/83755438/

I personally can't stand Cruz. But him winning Indiana keeps it interesting....and entertaining.

Trump consistently outperforms the polls and leaves the "experts" looking a bit dim. Other polls have Trump in the lead. We'll know Monday eve. US time and I expect Trump to win it.

[Dagnabbit]

Two of the good things that are manifesting in this primary season:

>>> more people worldwide are becoming aware of the American election cycle and its candidates. I'm not talking details or individual candidates, but rather the general overview. Many people worldwide are stuck in countries (like Thailand, China, S.Arabia, N.Korea) which don't have democracies. They ordinarily aren't aware of the concept of various candidates vying for high office. In about half the countries ww, powerless citizens have to put up with self-appointed generals, or family members of prior dictators. Getting wind of US politics, for all its flaws, will get them thinking about alternatives to no-choice, self-installed, iron-fisted rule.

>>> With the circus atmosphere currently happening in the US, it's getting people discussing issues / personalities, whatever. People are getting more engaged in what's going on. That will therefore prompt more folks to get off their fat butts to vote. That will get more votes for Dem candidates, because Reps generally vote in larger percentages, even in non-presidential voting cycles (that's why reps usually win more seats during a non-presidential years).

I know this will bug the crap out of conservatives, but grid your loins for Dems taking over Rep seats. Along with that, will be one or more liberal-thinking S.Court justices (It's such a relief that Rhenquist and Scalia ars off the court. Not only did they unfairly enable Bush Jr to win in 2000 with less votes than Gore, but they were dangerously right of right wing). Also, with more liberal & sensible leanings among the majority of voters, things like pot and hemp legalization will be more plausible. Along with that: the end to the awful War on Drugs, and perhaps a bit of sanity concerning Pharma Drugs and soaring medical expenses.

Hmmmm - anyone living in a dictatorship would look at the US system and see nothing but similarities.

You have a choice of 2 parties but you do NOT have a choice of who is nominated for president of those parties.

The GOP are desperately trying to derail popular opinion and HRC will win the race because she pocketed 500+ superdelegates that do not follow the popular vote.

This is not democracy.

[mopar71]

If he wins enough delegates that the Donald doesn't get enough to be uncontested it will make for an entertaining convention, given that the GOP boys hate Cruz as much as Trump. No doubt they are in meetings trying to work out how to give 10% Kasich the nomination.

I think it is going to be interesting in any case just based on what other speakers they find for the event. Several days of Republican speakers, many of who don't like their nominee (Trump), who isn't really a Republican or conservative. I guess they will mostly attack Hillary.

The Dem convention would be interesting for similar reasons if Bernie were the nominee. He can't win the delegates, but other things could happen to get Hillary to withdraw or disqualify her.

[mopar71]

I think Trump will get the required delegates and will go on to the general election. With Hillary to run against I think he will also win and be our next president. Everyone is sick and tired of the current elected officials and now want an outsider. If the democrats were smart they would elect Sanders and have a chance.

I don't really care for Trump but I don't think America can take another 4 years of pandering to big business and special interests. Sanders is my first pick followed by Trump. Going to be interesting.

I wonder what, if anything positive, the Dem and Rep leadership would learn from seeing two candidates competing in November (Bernie & Trump) who are outsiders and haven't been long time members of the party?

I expect that instead of making positive changes based on the message sent by voters, they would just make it harder for non-establishment figures to run as a Dem or Rep in the first place.

[boomerangutang]

Here's another reason (as if more were needed) why Trump is wrong:

He claims "our military is depleted." Another time, "our military has become a disaster."

As usual Trump is blowing air out his ass. The US already has, the most expensive military in the world, spending nearly 600 billion $$'s, which is 3 times the amount of all other 23 NATO countries combined.

Obama has brought down spending (although it's still astronomical) ....but Trump, like a typical Republican wants to shovel tens of billions more onto its lap. Like a typical silver-spoon billionaire, Trump thinks money comes from a magical spigot that forever flows plentifully. He wants to cut back tax revenues, while overspending like a drunk sailor on shore leave who is surrounded by smiling whores and pitchers of Budweiser. Cutting taxes and increasing spending is a recipe for profound defecits.

Here's an excerpt from an NPR article detailing how ridiculous Trump's plans are:

"Since 1949, adjusted for inflation, aside from the post-9/11 build up, only in 1986 and 1987 during the Reagan administration, did the U.S. spend more on its military than it does now."

source

Boomer's comment: Yup, just like their hero R.Reagan, Republicans want to spend obscene amounts on military build-up. They don't understand that a military can be just as tough or tougher with less uniformed men, and less star wars gadgets.

[Boon Mee]

Pretty hard to stop the Donald Trump Machine when the facts are:

[boomerangutang]

Pretty hard to stop the Donald Trump Machine when the facts are:

Yea, that assertion always gets me to gag: "The silent majority is on my side." How many Republicans have stated that? Nixon and Agnew, and ....?

That's like a bratty little boy saying to his mom, when she tells him there are no martians on the Moon, "Yea mom, but everyone else in the world knows it's true. So it's true."

The Silent Majority. Ahhh yes. All those people who don't speak out and don't vote. They must all be behind the arch-right wingers, mustn't they? They wouldn't back a reasonable candidate. Because they're silent and don't vote, they must be for the candidate who's going to lessen taxes for the very rich, while shooting spending up for the military, .....even more than the military are asking for. Through their silence, they're showing they're for the candidate who denigrates women and offends foreign leaders. Yea, sure.

[Boon Mee]

Pretty hard to stop the Donald Trump Machine when the facts are:

Yea, that assertion always gets me to gag: "The silent majority is on my side." How many Republicans have stated that? Nixon and Agnew, and ....?

That's like a bratty little boy saying to his mom, when she tells him there are no martians on the Moon, "Yea mom, but everyone else in the world knows it's true. So it's true."

The Silent Majority. Ahhh yes. All those people who don't speak out and don't vote. They must all be behind the arch-right wingers, mustn't they? They wouldn't back a reasonable candidate. Because they're silent and don't vote, they must be for the candidate who's going to lessen taxes for the very rich, while shooting spending up for the military, .....even more than the military are asking for. Through their silence, they're showing they're for the candidate who denigrates women and offends foreign leaders. Yea, sure.

She's toast, boys

HILLARY FEWER VOTES THAN '08...

[up-country_sinclair]

There is no longer any such thing as the "silent majority". If there ever was in the first place. With the advent of social media and forums like this one, there are very few who are silent.

And by the way, Secretary Clinton has received more votes this primary season than Trump. There are good odds that Secretary Clinton would take Utah is Trump is the nominee. Utah!

Trump is in the process of destroying the Republican party. He needs to be stopped before he does irreparable damage.

[ttthailand]

I think Trump will get the required delegates and will go on to the general election. With Hillary to run against I think he will also win and be our next president. Everyone is sick and tired of the current elected officials and now want an outsider. If the democrats were smart they would elect Sanders and have a chance.

I don't really care for Trump but I don't think America can take another 4 years of pandering to big business and special interests. Sanders is my first pick followed by Trump. Going to be interesting.

I wonder what, if anything positive, the Dem and Rep leadership would learn from seeing two candidates competing in November (Bernie & Trump) who are outsiders and haven't been long time members of the party?

I expect that instead of making positive changes based on the message sent by voters, they would just make it harder for non-establishment figures to run as a Dem or Rep in the first place.

I think you are correct that non-establishment figures would perhaps in the beginning encounter more problems on top of the current ones they already have in running. But perhaps also if you removed the special interests and those running for office ran for the people and received their money directly from the people, as Bernie is doing, then perhaps you will see more and more non-establishment figures running.

People are tired of the establishment running the show and calling the shots. That is way Bernie has done as well as he has with zero support from the " establishment" they have even tried to hinder him as much as possible. If he looses the democratic nomination, which it looks like he will, I would bet he could pull 30 percent of the vote running as an independent. Never before possible to pull near that amount as an independent but today people are sick and tired of business as usual. Americans want their country back and Hillary is not going to give it to them.

Only problem is that a huge percent of the votes will come from Hillary and will put Trump in the white house. Thus Bernie will not run ..., would however be an interesting 3 way race. I hope he does it but I don't think he will.

[Chicog]

They also like having a job that isn't shipped to China or Mexico.

Like the ones making Trump merchandise?

[keemapoot]

They also like having a job that isn't shipped to China or Mexico.

Like the ones making Trump merchandise?

You won't get far debating with Trump supporters on this issue because they have given him a free pass on the mountain of glaring hypocrocies that characterize this man.

I'll post an article from last autumn's Forbes that details this, but don't expect Trump supporters to read it, or if they do, they will somehow compartmentalize and minimize that due to their belief he is the messiah.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2015/08/17/trump-the-hypocrite-investing-overseas-fine-for-him/#2b60e1c1936b

[slipperylobster]

"Ducey called the past eight years "the most futile in modern American history" and said that it's time to "put a Republican in the White House and Hillary Clinton in the Big House."

The Associated Press

[keemapoot]

"Ducey called the past eight years "the most futile in modern American history" and said that it's time to "put a Republican in the White House and Hillary Clinton in the Big House."

The Associated Press

Is Trump a Republican? There are a lot of Republican who don't think so.

[Jingthing]

That Ducey guy is a total moron. A male BIMBO (sorry ladies).

Referring to him for political commentary is like going to Pol Pot for advice on nonviolence.

Edited May 1, 2016 by Jingthing

[NovaBlue05]

I think Trump will get the required delegates and will go on to the general election. With Hillary to run against I think he will also win and be our next president. Everyone is sick and tired of the current elected officials and now want an outsider. If the democrats were smart they would elect Sanders and have a chance.

I don't really care for Trump but I don't think America can take another 4 years of pandering to big business and special interests. Sanders is my first pick followed by Trump. Going to be interesting.

I wonder what, if anything positive, the Dem and Rep leadership would learn from seeing two candidates competing in November (Bernie & Trump) who are outsiders and haven't been long time members of the party?

I expect that instead of making positive changes based on the message sent by voters, they would just make it harder for non-establishment figures to run as a Dem or Rep in the first place.

The owners of the two party's had no doubt originally lined up Jeb/Hillary as their two vetted options with Rubio in the bullpen. Fortunately for them, Bernie wasn't quite ready for prime time in the US so they still have Hillary. I agree with the suggestion that they will likely skew the rules further into their favor to prevent the peasants from meddling into their business model.

I still think The Powers That Be™ have a Hail Mary to pull out of their arse before handing the nomination to Trump and I don't mean Kasich

[NovaBlue05]

There is no longer any such thing as the "silent majority". If there ever was in the first place. With the advent of social media and forums like this one, there are very few who are silent.

And by the way, Secretary Clinton has received more votes this primary season than Trump. There are good odds that Secretary Clinton would take Utah is Trump is the nominee. Utah!

Trump is in the process of destroying the Republican party. He needs to be stopped before he does irreparable damage.

The GOP should be destroyed...along with the Democrats. Bernie started the process for the latter. By 2020, they will be facing the same turmoil the GOP currently faces.

Given their partisan BS that ignores the well being of the Country they represent, how about outlawing political parties altogether as a conflict of interest.

[iReason]

The Bloviator be laggin'... (Big Time)

Current Primary Vote Totals:

Clinton: 12,437,734 votes.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/democratic_vote_count.html

Trump: 10,056,690 votes.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/republican_vote_count.html

The Bloviator should do the honorable thing and step aside before he gets humiliated in public. (Although, I'm really looking forward to it.)

But, he doesn't know what honor is.

[boomerangutang]

There is no longer any such thing as the "silent majority". If there ever was in the first place. With the advent of social media and forums like this one, there are very few who are silent.

And by the way, Secretary Clinton has received more votes this primary season than Trump. There are good odds that Secretary Clinton would take Utah is Trump is the nominee. Utah!

Trump is in the process of destroying the Republican party. He needs to be stopped before he does irreparable damage.

I agree with all but your closing sentence. Actually, it depends what mean by 'irreparable damage.' If you mean damage to the Republican Party, then I can't agree. It deserves all the damage it gets - much of it self-afflicted. Perhaps some of that damage will put the brakes on $13 million/day Koch Brother type spending, who are able to plow in millions of dollars a day to right wing anti-science, anti-poor people Bible-thumping, harmful-to-America candidates.

If you mean irreparable damage to the country (if Trump is elected), then I can agree with you. Trump will be for America what crushed glass is for baby formula.

"Ducey called the past eight years "the most futile in modern American history" and said that it's time to "put a Republican in the White House and Hillary Clinton in the Big House."

The Associated Press

Who the F is Ducey, and do I care? Hey, my green grocer says..... ....oh, never mind.

[Publicus]

Trump's odds in Las Vegas of winning the Republican party nomination have never been greater than as of this morning, 1-8, or the probability percentage of 88.8%.

HRC has sky-high odds to win the Democratic party nomination of 1-50, or the probability percentage of 98%.

So both of 'em are hollering at each other with Trump of course hollering the loudest. Bernie's trying to squeak in between 'em to holler at Hillary. So here's the real reality check....

Vegas odds this morning, to be elected Potus on November 8th:

HRC has odds to win of 2-7 or the probability percentage of 77.8%

Donald Trump has odds to win of 11-4 or the probability percentage of 26.6%

The line on the winning party in November, no names

Democratic Party has odds to win of 1-3 or the probability percentage of 75%

Republican Party has odds to win of 5-2 or the probability percentage of 28.7%

Independent has odds of 50-1 (1.96%)

These odds do not take into account what happens between now and the elections...of course.

They are published way too early...before the starting gates have even opened. So they are not valid.

Hillary will lose more and more followers, as Trump gains momentum (republican backing).

To see him overcome the odds (almost no republican backing) and, in effect, become their nominee...will swing those odds more in his favor.

Also, Democrats are stupidly wreaking havoc at each and every opportunity. This will be their downfall. Hillary has not yet escaped her past...that is still up in the air.

Too many variables. All the cards are not on the table...so too early to bet.

Too early to tell.

Oddsmaking is a futures market.

There's lots of bucks made in any futures market always. Nothing is perfect, but the only time oddsmakers have been off in an election of Potus is the year 2000 election....and everyone knows what happened back then. The chads makers prevailed instead of the oddsmakers.

The reality of the futures markets in this election says the Republican party nominee and the Republican party itself have no future. The oddsmakers btw have been saying this since soon after the middle of last year when they opened their doors to global oddsmaking on this election.

Their record in each election of Potus, from the early stages to the finish line of election day is virtually 100% accurate. In 2012 for instance, the oddsmakers always favored Barack Obama for reelection. Going into election day the odds on Obama winning reelection were 1-5, or an 83% percentage probability. Throughout the 2012 campaign, Barack Obama was the odds-on favorite.

HRC has been the odds-on favorite since South Carolina, which was the fourth contest, the second primary election. Youse guyz keep trying to fight City Hall but you never get used to City Hall always winning in the end.

Odds aren't predictive and oddsmakers are not fortune tellers.

They are mathematicians. As bets come in, they shorten/lengthen odds to make bets more/less appealing. This re-balancing ensures they make a profit.

Oddsmakers make a profit by being accurate. Same as your broker does.

Oddsmakers have been accurate in elections of Potus since they started on it in 1992 (excepting the chadsmakers year of 2000).

You can bet on it.

[Dagnabbit]

Trump's odds in Las Vegas of winning the Republican party nomination have never been greater than as of this morning, 1-8, or the probability percentage of 88.8%.

HRC has sky-high odds to win the Democratic party nomination of 1-50, or the probability percentage of 98%.

So both of 'em are hollering at each other with Trump of course hollering the loudest. Bernie's trying to squeak in between 'em to holler at Hillary. So here's the real reality check....

Vegas odds this morning, to be elected Potus on November 8th:

HRC has odds to win of 2-7 or the probability percentage of 77.8%
Donald Trump has odds to win of 11-4 or the probability percentage of 26.6%


The line on the winning party in November, no names

Democratic Party has odds to win of 1-3 or the probability percentage of 75%
Republican Party has odds to win of 5-2 or the probability percentage of 28.7%
Independent has odds of 50-1 (1.96%)

These odds do not take into account what happens between now and the elections...of course.
They are published way too early...before the starting gates have even opened. So they are not valid.
Hillary will lose more and more followers, as Trump gains momentum (republican backing).
To see him overcome the odds (almost no republican backing) and, in effect, become their nominee...will swing those odds more in his favor.

Also, Democrats are stupidly wreaking havoc at each and every opportunity. This will be their downfall. Hillary has not yet escaped her past...that is still up in the air.

Too many variables. All the cards are not on the table...so too early to bet.


Too early to tell.

Oddsmaking is a futures market.

There's lots of bucks made in any futures market always. Nothing is perfect, but the only time oddsmakers have been off in an election of Potus is the year 2000 election....and everyone knows what happened back then. The chads makers prevailed instead of the oddsmakers.

The reality of the futures markets in this election says the Republican party nominee and the Republican party itself have no future. The oddsmakers btw have been saying this since soon after the middle of last year when they opened their doors to global oddsmaking on this election.

Their record in each election of Potus, from the early stages to the finish line of election day is virtually 100% accurate. In 2012 for instance, the oddsmakers always favored Barack Obama for reelection. Going into election day the odds on Obama winning reelection were 1-5, or an 83% percentage probability. Throughout the 2012 campaign, Barack Obama was the odds-on favorite.

HRC has been the odds-on favorite since South Carolina, which was the fourth contest, the second primary election. Youse guyz keep trying to fight City Hall but you never get used to City Hall always winning in the end.

Odds aren't predictive and oddsmakers are not fortune tellers.
They are mathematicians. As bets come in, they shorten/lengthen odds to make bets more/less appealing. This re-balancing ensures they make a profit.

Oddsmakers make a profit by being accurate. Same as your broker does.

Oddsmakers have been accurate in elections of Potus since they started on it in 1992 (excepting the chadsmakers year of 2000).

You can bet on it.

Actually, they dont.

It is all about having odds that add up to over 100% combined and lengthening and shortening odds to ensure you profit regardless of the outcome.

Bookies win regardless of the outcome. They do not take a position. The odds merely reflect balance of outstanding bets.

[Publicus]

There is no longer any such thing as the "silent majority". If there ever was in the first place. With the advent of social media and forums like this one, there are very few who are silent.

And by the way, Secretary Clinton has received more votes this primary season than Trump. There are good odds that Secretary Clinton would take Utah is Trump is the nominee. Utah!

Trump is in the process of destroying the Republican party. He needs to be stopped before he does irreparable damage.

Indeed.

Prof. Larry J. Sabato has a perfect record over decades of analysing Potus election contests. He is director of the U of VA Center for Politics and the regular BBC on-air Potus election night analyst.

Here's how Prof. Sabato sees it in Trump v Clinton with 270 Electoral College votes needed to win....

Election analysts prefer close elections, but there was nothing we could do to make this one close. Clinton’s total is 347 electoral votes, which includes 190 safe, 57 likely, and 100 that lean in her direction. Trump has a total of 191 (142 safe, 48 likely, and 1 leans).

Over the years we’ve put much emphasis on the seven super-swing states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Virginia. While some will fall to the Democrats less readily than others, it is difficult to see any that Trump is likely to grab.

In fact, four normally Republican states (Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, and Missouri) would be somewhat less secure for the GOP than usual. North Carolina, which normally leans slightly to the GOP, would also be well within Clinton’s grasp in this election after being Mitt Romney’s closest win in 2012.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-only-thing-that-matters/

Prof. Sabato did his first and preliminary 2016 analysis in May last year. At that time, the Democratic party had 247 EC votes, 85 EC votes were rated as toss-up states, while the Republican candidate (no names) would get 191 EC votes. So this analysis done last month is radically different from a year ago. So is the contest as Bush among others have been vanquished by Republican voters in their Trump frenzy (with only some outside the party help).

Again, Prof. Sabato has yet to miss calling an election of Potus -- he hasn't ever missed on a one of 'em.

Good newz for the good guyz.

[NeverSure]

Pretty hard to stop the Donald Trump Machine when the facts are:

I disagree with that sign. The Silent Majority isn't silent any more. #TrumpTrain

[NeverSure]

And by the way, Secretary Clinton has received more votes this primary season than Trump.

That's bogus. Trump started out running against 16 other people to split the votes with. He's still running against two other guys. Hillary is only splitting them with a lame old socialist.

Next.