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Would you buy a condo in Pattaya?  

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The banks are down valuing condos ,even sea view ones , there are problems coming and they know it ,and no its not second hand gossip its seeing it with my own eyes

Care to elaborate on this statement ?

You have to be around when the are doing their valuations,especially on some of the new condos when they are changing hands for the second time etc

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Pattaya, no way ! I would not want to live there as it is a city of hookers. Last time I was there I walked away from my gf for a minute and some dirt bag asked my gf how much. The place is for drunks, fools and sexpats.

Would I buy in another city, maybe if the price was right but now most are too expensive for what you get. I however prefer to be free to move every two or three years into a new condo or new area. The place I stay now would take over 20 years to pay off with the rent I am paying. So basically if I were to buy it would be like paying my rent for 20 years up front. One way or another I will be paying something so I prefer to have the option to move and pay by the month.

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I do look at the classifieds and I get lots of emails from realtors with lists of 'fire sale' condos. I haven't seen any condos that have gone from 7MB to 3.2MB in just 4 years. That's why I was asking for the name of the condo, which so far nobody has provided. If you look at the classifieds and the so-called 'fire sales' you will notice that good quality, seaview, highrise condos in excellent or good locations are maintaining their values well. Some examples are VT6, Northshore, Cetus, VT 5 & 7. Even older condos like VT2 in good locations, kept up, and on the baht taxi line I would say are maintaining their values or not dropping much. New condos like The Base and Centric Sea, in great locations with seaviews and not much competition, have not been hurt by the real estate downturn and are maintaining prices in the 80000-100,000+ Baht a sqm range depending on floor level and condo views. You may have noticed I used the word 'maintain' several times. I am a realist, this is Thailand, and I don't expect Western style real estate appreciation here unless a condo is really special. (Just as an aside, not all areas in the West are going up much, either, in the current economic climate.) For most here, it's enough to maintain prices, at least in the short-term. So, if there might be little or no appreciation, why not just rent? Short-term, I would. For me, living here long-term, it's better to buy as I like my own things and like being able to make changes to my condo. I rented for a year while I waited for my current condo to be finished. 360,000 Baht down the drain. Bye bye. That would have been 1/3 towards owning one of those little Lumpini Seaview or Lumpini Naklua condos when Lumpini runs a 999,999 MB sale. In just a year. If I rented for 3 years I could have bought one of those condos with the rent money I wasted. My condo may or may not appreciate but I'm not throwing money down the drain every month on rent and I'm not writing a large monthly check for condo fees, HOA fees, and real estate taxes like I did in the USA--that's one of the big savings for me being on a small pension.

I have rented my two bedroom condo for ten years. No problem renting and has provided good income.

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You can rent a condo 40 sqm for 7000 baht x 12 months = 84000 baht .

Or you can buy one for 2 million .

You need to live here at least 10 years to feel you get your money back from buying and then all the other problems that might give you a headache such as noisy neighbors, soi dogs, construction work etc.

If you rent you can relocate anytime you want , if you own it you're stuck . Up 2 you.

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The banks are down valuing condos ,even sea view ones , there are problems coming and they know it ,and no its not second hand gossip its seeing it with my own eyes

" there are problems coming and they know it "

yikes ! I have just been clandestinely reading the website of the guy we are not allowed to mention around here and I would say all in all there is a veritable tsunami coming!ph34r.png

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You can rent a condo 40 sqm for 7000 baht x 12 months = 84000 baht .

14,000 x 12 = 168,000

Or you can buy one for 2 million .

You need to live here at least 5 years to feel you get your money back from buying. OK, I'm in! biggrin.png

and then all the other problems that might give you a headache such as noisy neighbors, soi dogs, construction work etc.

Which are easily dealt with, 'cause you got a pair and are by no means down to your last satang. Meanwhile, you're loving having your own space with your own stuff secured.

But in the absence of a pair you'd be forced to stay curled up in a fetal position all the time.blink.png In that case, better throw away your money on rent. Having never owned, post dire warnings on here about owning.

. . . if you own it you're stuck .

No.

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The banks are down valuing condos ,even sea view ones , there are problems coming and they know it ,and no its not second hand gossip its seeing it with my own eyes

" there are problems coming and they know it "

yikes ! I have just been clandestinely reading the website of the guy we are not allowed to mention around here and I would say all in all there is a veritable tsunami coming!ph34r.png

Why? What does he say ?

Sent from my GT-I9000 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

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n buy one for 2 million .

You need to live here at least 5 years to feel you get your money back from buying. OK, I'm in! biggrin.png

and then all the other problems that might give you a headache such as noisy neighbors, soi dogs, construction work etc.

Which are easily dealt with, 'cause you got a pair and are by no means down to your last satang. Meanwhile, you're loving having your own space with your own stuff secured.

But in the absence of a pair you'd be forced to stay curled up in a fetal position all the time.blink.png In that case, better throw away your money on rent. Having never owned, post dire warnings on here about owning.

. . . if you own it you're stuck .

No.

Ok you're not stuck , try to sell the condo with a profit these days , if you decide to move , almost impossible just to find a buyer.

And there's plenty of storage rooms for rent in Pattaya if you decide to move your stuff , I still think its better to rent than own a condo in Thailand , unless you can afford to waste your money . Because the rent in Thailand is so cheap so no need to buy .

However if I lived in my home country I would not rent , that's just wasting my money because it's so expensive , the rent is 50k ++ in the city and you can buy a flat for 4 million thb. Completely different situation from Thailand. Also much better constructed buildings where I come from, you can actually sell them with a profit.

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I didn't buy my condo for an investment. I bought it because I liked the 60 square meter unit. My friends told me that I was crazy and that I was paying too much. I don't like high rise condos. Narrow dark hallways and fear of a fire totally put me off. My condo is in a five story building that is built in a rectangle with the center of the building open air with trees. The grounds are very well taken care of and security is great. My electric is billed directly from the electric company, No rip off add on charges. The monthly maintenance is 10 baht per square meter per month

Maintenance is 10 baht per sqm!? That seems really very very cheap. Is such low maintenance common for Thai condos? Does your building have a pool?

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in their report on the Pattaya condo market last year Colliers International Research claimed there were at least 20,000 condos for sale (and talked about even more - 30,000 - still under construction).

Now credit markets are signaling that the debt fueled expansion that began in 2010 is turning to bust. This is the most precarious moment in financial market history because as the world slides into recession global central banks have no ability to soften the oncoming recession with debt creation. Globally interest rates are close to zero and even negative in Europe and Japan. Long term government bond yields are also extremely low. This is sending a very clear and ominous signal that the world cannot service more debt and in fact needs to deleverage and get on more solid financial footing.

The last time the world deleveraged was during The Great Depression

http://www.colliers.com/-/media/files/apac/thailand/market-reports/pattaya%202h%202015-eng.pdf

Edited by Asiantravel
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What city are you talking about, Balo, where you can buy a condo for 4MB? Sounds good. (Hope it's not Detroit.) Thanks.

Bergen in Norway, similar size 1 room . But I think you get my point.

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Bergen??? Sounds like a place you would want to escape from not to. And you'd have to have a condo in a warm climate--like Thailand--to get away from the severe cold. Sort of defeats the purpose...

you have absolutely no idea what will happen in this country eventually and foreigners may end up needing to escape................

and should you need to sell your condo in Bergen , at least you have a free rein there as opposed to Thailand where the local citizenry wouldn't be interested in second hand (for fear of ghosts etc vampire.gif ).

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Bergen??? Sounds like a place you would want to escape from not to. And you'd have to have a condo in a warm climate--like Thailand--to get away from the severe cold. Sort of defeats the purpose...

you have absolutely no idea what will happen in this country eventually and foreigners may end up needing to escape................

and should you need to sell your condo in Bergen , at least you have a free rein there as opposed to Thailand where the local citizenry wouldn't be interested in second hand (for fear of ghosts etc vampire.gif ).

But then again you have absolutely no idea whether Russia may not nuke Bergen at some point. smile.png Our member midas will point out that the NOK is gonna be worthless and you'll starve anyway. Better start thinking more in terms of a bunker. Here ya go: Luxury Survival Condos.

BTW, it's an oft-repeated myth that Thais don't buy used houses or condos, though of course they prefer new.

Well, I hate it when our room renters just pussyfoot around in these recurrent FOOLS BUY CONDOS threads and try to build up the drama and their claims to prescience.

Better just to come on out with it, man, deflating as it may be. What the forum needs a Doom sticky to collect all the apocalyptic predictions from the last few decades, going back to the Pattaya Mail, so that we don't keep encountering them again and again. The peanut gallery loves reading this sort of thing though. I'll have to dig out an old global currency collapse prophecy from a financial guru back in the early 70s. Guess he made a mint from his advice newsletter.

Well, the dire future of Pattaya and of farangs in Thailand has already been depicted, graphically, on THIS forum to the complete and utter satisfaction of the most incorrigible Chicken Little and doomsayer. Besides this, the TV forum posters' sage, street-smart three Primal Laws Of Survival In Thailand are enshrined as gospel. Urgent, unequivocal advice was given years ago for everyone to RUN! NOW! We don't know what nasty surprises are in store!

post-14882-0-41310900-1459510444_thumb.p

So that's IT. That's ALL. RUN!

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Bergen??? Sounds like a place you would want to escape from not to. And you'd have to have a condo in a warm climate--like Thailand--to get away from the severe cold. Sort of defeats the purpose...

you have absolutely no idea what will happen in this country eventually and foreigners may end up needing to escape................

and should you need to sell your condo in Bergen , at least you have a free rein there as opposed to Thailand where the local citizenry wouldn't be interested in second hand (for fear of ghosts etc vampire.gif ).

But then again you have absolutely no idea whether Russia may not nuke Bergen at some point. smile.png Our member midas will point out that the NOK is gonna be worthless and you'll starve anyway. Better start thinking more in terms of a bunker. Here ya go: Luxury Survival Condos.

BTW, it's an oft-repeated myth that Thais don't buy used houses or condos, though of course they prefer new.

Well, I hate it when our room renters just pussyfoot around in these recurrent FOOLS BUY CONDOS threads and try to build up the drama and their claims to prescience.

Better just to come on out with it, man, deflating as it may be. What the forum needs a Doom sticky to collect all the apocalyptic predictions from the last few decades, going back to the Pattaya Mail, so that we don't keep encountering them again and again. The peanut gallery loves reading this sort of thing though. I'll have to dig out an old global currency collapse prophecy from a financial guru back in the early 70s. Guess he made a mint from his advice newsletter.

Well, the dire future of Pattaya and of farangs in Thailand has already been depicted, graphically, on THIS forum to the complete and utter satisfaction of the most incorrigible Chicken Little and doomsayer. Besides this, the TV forum posters' sage, street-smart three Primal Laws Of Survival In Thailand are enshrined as gospel. Urgent, unequivocal advice was given years ago for everyone to RUN! NOW! We don't know what nasty surprises are in store!

So that's IT. That's ALL. RUN!

Lol. And so what do YOU have invested?

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Okey, let's try some fun maths!

I did a check of several units available in a few areas of Pattaya. I compared the cost of buying the condo versus renting either the
same unit or a very similiar unit in the same building (and same floor where possible). I came up with some of the following numbers:

Centric Sea Pattaya
2.6M @ 15k/mo (6.9% per year)
2.9M @ 20k/mo (8.3% per year)
3.3M @ 25k/mo (9.0% per year)

TW Pattaya Klang
1.9M @ 15k/mo (9.4% per year)

View Talay 6
4M @ 21k/mo (6.3% per year)

LK Legend
2.5M @ 18/mo 8.6% per year)

Based on this it would seem rent is approximately 6% to 10% of the cost of the condo. This falls in line with the vast
amount of literature out there that 'guarantee' a 7% or 8% return rate for 1/2/3 years when they sell condos to those who wish to buy & rent-out.

So let's do the maths with the 6%, 8%, and 10% figures.

If you buy a condo at X THB, as opposed to renting it, you will reach a break-even price point after a certain number of years:

6% = 16.7 years
8% = 12.5 years
10% = 10 years

Put another way, if you stay put in a condo that would have rented out at 8% of cost, for 12.5 years, you can then sell it for 0 THB and have 'lost'
the same amount of money as buying versus selling. If the condo takes longer than 12.5 years to depreciate to 0% of its original value you will
be ahead. It is rare for a condo to depreciate that quickly.

If we take a slightly more realistic, but still pessimistic outlook, and presume that the value of the condo depreciates at a rate of 10% per year.
Then after 5 years the value of the condo will be down to 59% of its original value. Let's use an example from Centric Sea Pattaya:

Purchase at 2.9M, with pessimistic view that in 5 years the value will be 59% of the original price: 1,711,000. This is a loss of 1,189,000.
The same condo with a rent of 20K/mo (240,000/year) would cost approximately 1,200,000 in rent over the same 5 year period. Meaning you are
basically break-even

Let's work it backwards with a 1 year holding period. Rent would be 240,000 THB for one year. If the property depreciated by 8.3% over one year it would sell at a price of 2,659,300. A loss of 240,700.

To sum up:
If the property depreciates less than 8.3% over one year, buying is more profitable than selling.
If the property depreciates less than 10% per year over a 5 year period, buying is more profitable than selling.
If the property depreciates by 100% but is held for more than 12.5 years, buying is more profitable than selling.

And these are of course rather higher-than-average depreciation rates. Due to this, one could actually purposely sell at a lower price than the true depreciation price in order to sell quickly (if the price depreciated by 2% over one year, you could fire sell by an additional 6.3% to ensure a quick sale and STILL be at the break even point).

This does not take into consideration rate of inflation, as in a fair market the rate of inflation would be offset by the increase in cost of rent.

Now, finally, there's the cash-investment side of things:
If you have 2.9M THB of cash and choose to pay rent, what is the rest of that 2.9M THB doing? If its in a bank it's not making any money for you, and will eventually be drained.

If it's invested then you would need to find an investment that pays 8.3% per year in order to match the 'return' you would have made were you to 'invest' it in your condo. And a 'guaranteed' 8.3% return on a continual steady basis is pretty hard (impossible?) to get over a long period of time.

Some arguments for renting vs owning condo include:
-- Can move out quickly! Well, you usually have a 1 year contract, so by quickly you mean anywhere from 2 months to 12 months away or you loose 2 months rent (40,000 or 1.38% of the price of the condo)

-- Additionally, in Thailand, the paperwork behind selling & buying is so simple you can close the deal in a couple of days -- technically you could sell a condo faster than moving out of a rented condo if you upheld the contract of the rented condo.

-- Don't trust the government, they can change the rules! Absolutely, therefore it might be wise to only purchase an inexpensive condo with an amount you feel safe to loose. That being said, I would be curious in how often this actually happens and if it really is a major concern.

Some arguments for owning vs renting condo include:
-- Save on having to pay rent! True, provided the condo does not depreciate too quickly and it can be sold. You MIGHT end up with a lemon that no one wants even at a fire sale price because its such a horrible place. This is where due diligence comes in (pay a little extra and buy a condo done by a known/safe developer at a highly desirable location)

At the end of the day it is always up to the individual, their personal circumstances, and what they feel comfortable with. But don't discount buying a condo, especially in an environment where the rent is at a significant premium. In markets where rent is not at a high premium (3% or 4% of base cost) then the above argument would be greatly swung the other way (reminds me of housing market in the bay area before the bubble. Cheap rent, crazy high house prices).

Thank you for reading this super long post :)

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Based on this it would seem rent is approximately 6% to 10% of the cost of the condo. This falls in line with the vast

amount of literature out there that 'guarantee' a 7% or 8% return rate for 1/2/3 years when they sell condos to those who wish to buy & rent-out.

All your figures are based on asking prices for rent and sale. Few people would be daft enough to pay the asking price for either here, I think. Everything is highly negotiable.

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Okey, let's try some fun maths!

Your post assumes that units would be rented 12 months a year which is hardly the case.

Anyway, I need to "invest" 200k Canadian somewhere and right nor my bank in Canada is paying me $79 dollars monthly on this amount.

Then the government takes 15% in non resident tax.

Looking at the numbers above even a Pattaya condo looks like a no brainer. Even if I invest only 1.6 million (Lumpini has a good promo right now), I could only rent a room for 2-3 nights a month on AirBNB and get more than what I get right now.

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Based on this it would seem rent is approximately 6% to 10% of the cost of the condo. This falls in line with the vast

amount of literature out there that 'guarantee' a 7% or 8% return rate for 1/2/3 years when they sell condos to those who wish to buy & rent-out.

All your figures are based on asking prices for rent and sale. Few people would be daft enough to pay the asking price for either here, I think. Everything is highly negotiable.

Everything is of course negotiable. 'Highly' is debatable. You may be able to knock off 10% but not 50% off the price. Likewise you may be able to knock off not only on the sale price but the rental price. Provided the discount rate is equivalent, the maths would turn out to be the same anyways.

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Okey, let's try some fun maths!

Your post assumes that units would be rented 12 months a year which is hardly the case.

Anyway, I need to "invest" 200k Canadian somewhere and right nor my bank in Canada is paying me $79 dollars monthly on this amount.

Then the government takes 15% in non resident tax.

Looking at the numbers above even a Pattaya condo looks like a no brainer. Even if I invest only 1.6 million (Lumpini has a good promo right now), I could only rent a room for 2-3 nights a month on AirBNB and get more than what I get right now.

Don't forget to calculate currency risk. The CDN is not as good now as it was before the commodity crisis. Owning an investment in THB hedges you against the currency risk, allowing you a smoother return rate. Half of that 100k should be able to pick you up a decent enough condo in Pattaya (or even Bangkok).

On a positive side: At least Canada isn't offering you negative interest rates :P

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I would disagree somewhat with the statement that "Everything is highly negotiable." Some things but not everything. The last condo I sold mid 2015 went for asking price and the last 2 condos I rented, in 2015 and 2016, went for asking rent. In all 3 cases it was a good product at a reasonable, not gouging, price. Great posting by JayBird. I liked what he said about money in the bank not earning you anything. How true. I have some emergency money in a USA bank and I earn a lousy couple dollars of interest a month. If you buy wisely (and that's the key), I doubt there will be much or any depreciation on a well-maintained condo in a good location. Instead, what I see are good condo complexes in good locations reaching a plateau in prices and then maintaining them. VT5 is one example. Around four years ago I renovated 4 studio condos in 5C and 5D. They were good renovations, the condos all had seaviews, but the maximum I could get was around 3.5MB for 5C and 3.25MB for 5D, in foreign name. Possibly could have gotten a little more but I didn't want to wait forever. I think the average then was around 2.7MB to 3.5MB for seaview, foreign name, 48sqm studios. Now, years later, I would say studios with seaviews in foreign name still go for around those same prices, give or take, depending on floor and condition. Prices not skyrocketing but not plunging off a cliff, either.

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Okey, let's try some fun maths!

Your post assumes that units would be rented 12 months a year which is hardly the case.

Anyway, I need to "invest" 200k Canadian somewhere and right nor my bank in Canada is paying me $79 dollars monthly on this amount.

Then the government takes 15% in non resident tax.

Looking at the numbers above even a Pattaya condo looks like a no brainer. Even if I invest only 1.6 million (Lumpini has a good promo right now), I could only rent a room for 2-3 nights a month on AirBNB and get more than what I get right now.

Don't forget to calculate currency risk. The CDN is not as good now as it was before the commodity crisis. Owning an investment in THB hedges you against the currency risk, allowing you a smoother return rate. Half of that 100k should be able to pick you up a decent enough condo in Pattaya (or even Bangkok).

On a positive side: At least Canada isn't offering you negative interest rates tongue.png

Actually I think it's the opposite. Oil will eventually recover (as it did when baht was in high 24's and it's close to 27 now).

Thailand baht may have a lot of downside. Of course, it is all speculation, but I'll stick with a safer bet.

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Someone once posted on this forum what I consider to be very wise advice -- if you have money to buy, then buy a property in your home country, rent it out, and use the rental income to rent a place in Thailand. That way, your investment is secure, you are building equity in a stable, first-world nation (depending on where you're from), and with no ties in Thailand you can pack up and move when a pig farm or karaoke bar opens up next to your little home.

I have been saying that since 1990.

The Government can change the law at any time.

As foreigners we have no rights here.coffee1.gif

When has Thai government changed the law that has adversely affected the condo ownership rights of westerners? I'd be grateful if you could elaborate

Sent from my R7sf using Tapatalk

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Okey, let's try some fun maths!

I did a check of several units available in a few areas of Pattaya. I compared the cost of buying the condo versus renting either the

same unit or a very similiar unit in the same building (and same floor where possible). I came up with some of the following numbers:

Centric Sea Pattaya

2.6M @ 15k/mo (6.9% per year)

2.9M @ 20k/mo (8.3% per year)

3.3M @ 25k/mo (9.0% per year)

TW Pattaya Klang

1.9M @ 15k/mo (9.4% per year)

View Talay 6

4M @ 21k/mo (6.3% per year)

LK Legend

2.5M @ 18/mo 8.6% per year)

Based on this it would seem rent is approximately 6% to 10% of the cost of the condo. This falls in line with the vast

amount of literature out there that 'guarantee' a 7% or 8% return rate for 1/2/3 years when they sell condos to those who wish to buy & rent-out.

So let's do the maths with the 6%, 8%, and 10% figures.

If you buy a condo at X THB, as opposed to renting it, you will reach a break-even price point after a certain number of years:

6% = 16.7 years

8% = 12.5 years

10% = 10 years

Put another way, if you stay put in a condo that would have rented out at 8% of cost, for 12.5 years, you can then sell it for 0 THB and have 'lost'

the same amount of money as buying versus selling. If the condo takes longer than 12.5 years to depreciate to 0% of its original value you will

be ahead. It is rare for a condo to depreciate that quickly.

If we take a slightly more realistic, but still pessimistic outlook, and presume that the value of the condo depreciates at a rate of 10% per year.

Then after 5 years the value of the condo will be down to 59% of its original value. Let's use an example from Centric Sea Pattaya:

Purchase at 2.9M, with pessimistic view that in 5 years the value will be 59% of the original price: 1,711,000. This is a loss of 1,189,000.

The same condo with a rent of 20K/mo (240,000/year) would cost approximately 1,200,000 in rent over the same 5 year period. Meaning you are

basically break-even

Let's work it backwards with a 1 year holding period. Rent would be 240,000 THB for one year. If the property depreciated by 8.3% over one year it would sell at a price of 2,659,300. A loss of 240,700.

To sum up:

If the property depreciates less than 8.3% over one year, buying is more profitable than selling.

If the property depreciates less than 10% per year over a 5 year period, buying is more profitable than selling.

If the property depreciates by 100% but is held for more than 12.5 years, buying is more profitable than selling.

And these are of course rather higher-than-average depreciation rates. Due to this, one could actually purposely sell at a lower price than the true depreciation price in order to sell quickly (if the price depreciated by 2% over one year, you could fire sell by an additional 6.3% to ensure a quick sale and STILL be at the break even point).

This does not take into consideration rate of inflation, as in a fair market the rate of inflation would be offset by the increase in cost of rent.

Now, finally, there's the cash-investment side of things:

If you have 2.9M THB of cash and choose to pay rent, what is the rest of that 2.9M THB doing? If its in a bank it's not making any money for you, and will eventually be drained.

If it's invested then you would need to find an investment that pays 8.3% per year in order to match the 'return' you would have made were you to 'invest' it in your condo. And a 'guaranteed' 8.3% return on a continual steady basis is pretty hard (impossible?) to get over a long period of time.

Some arguments for renting vs owning condo include:

-- Can move out quickly! Well, you usually have a 1 year contract, so by quickly you mean anywhere from 2 months to 12 months away or you loose 2 months rent (40,000 or 1.38% of the price of the condo)

-- Additionally, in Thailand, the paperwork behind selling & buying is so simple you can close the deal in a couple of days -- technically you could sell a condo faster than moving out of a rented condo if you upheld the contract of the rented condo.

-- Don't trust the government, they can change the rules! Absolutely, therefore it might be wise to only purchase an inexpensive condo with an amount you feel safe to loose. That being said, I would be curious in how often this actually happens and if it really is a major concern.

Some arguments for owning vs renting condo include:

-- Save on having to pay rent! True, provided the condo does not depreciate too quickly and it can be sold. You MIGHT end up with a lemon that no one wants even at a fire sale price because its such a horrible place. This is where due diligence comes in (pay a little extra and buy a condo done by a known/safe developer at a highly desirable location)

At the end of the day it is always up to the individual, their personal circumstances, and what they feel comfortable with. But don't discount buying a condo, especially in an environment where the rent is at a significant premium. In markets where rent is not at a high premium (3% or 4% of base cost) then the above argument would be greatly swung the other way (reminds me of housing market in the bay area before the bubble. Cheap rent, crazy high house prices).

Thank you for reading this super long post smile.png

Those margins are gross ?.

Whats the net after tax has been paid ?

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