US military units to stay for South China Sea patrols

[Publicus]

The quote below is one of the few public statements in the public domain that accurately present the total strategy of the CCP Dictators in Beijing in their bold and shameless aggressions in the SCS against their smaller neighbors.

It is from Prof. Le Hong Nhat of Ho Chi Minh City University faculty of Economics-Law who is fluent in English and has a Ph.D. from Stanford University in California. Hey, if anyone anywhere knows the Chinese, it would be a Vietnamese.

And this statement containing the quote is hard hitting, direct, complete in its overview of CCP grand strategy to control the sea lanes from the SCS through the Indian Ocean to the Gulf and ME, joining with Iran specifically and, more broadly, Russia.

The long-term goal of China is to control the international shipping route, from the Near East through the Indian Ocean to the East Sea.

Along with economic growth, this sea route has become increasingly vital to China. But it is also vital to the US, Japan and other countries in the region.

China's navy has carried out a rare joint exercise, involving its three fleets, in the South China Sea as regional tensions over territorial disputes mount. The combined drill was carried out in southern waters by warships, submarines and the naval air force from the People's Liberation Army's North Sea, East Sea and South Sea fleets, national broadcaster CCTV reported on Saturday.

The collaboration of international maritime security between China and the US, Japan and ASEAN would be ideal for the stability and prosperity of the region. But turning the international waters into the territorial waters of China is a more secure guarantee for China, at the cost of the sovereignty of the smaller countries in the region which has been violated. In other words, we are witnessing a process that China is trying to put pressure on small countries to redraw the regional map.

The bullying, or bilateral dispute over maritime sovereignty, the rights of fishing and exploring oil and gas are just the first step, which is within a larger dispute over the control of the strategic maritime route passing the East Sea, with more than 1/3 of global trade passing through the waters.

That implies the strategic maritime route passing through the East Sea will gradually belong to China. Other countries will be required to comply with the new order, which is enforced by the military power of China, which is predicted to challenge the US in the Western Pacific in 2030.

http://english.vietnamnet.vn/fms/special-reports/156180/east-sea--resignation-will-become-acceptance.html

United States proved its patience, resilience, dominance, throughout the 46 years of the Cold War in response to Russian Soviet aggression and determination to rule the world in the name of Stalinist bureaucracy. CCP Dictators in Beijing are but another revived ancient empire that will run into the same brick wall of patience prevailing. Patience and muscle combined and wisely utilised against dictators.

So the professor is on the mark in identifying the strategy and grand schemes of the CCP Dictators in Beijing, however, he completely misses the impact of the United States in its savvy, 20th century experience with dictators who are inherently psychopathic, and the superiority of the United States and its democracy, its belief in itself, and its willingness -- its determination -- to confront and overcome sinister schemes by tyrants who believe they are the superior race that is destined to rule the world.

Edited May 12, 2016 by Publicus

[tonbridgebrit]

The bullying, or bilateral dispute over maritime sovereignty, the rights of fishing and exploring oil and gas are just the first step, which is within a larger dispute over the control of the strategic maritime route passing the East Sea, with more than 1/3 of global trade passing through the waters.

So the professor is on the mark in identifying the strategy and grand schemes of the CCP Dictators in Beijing, however, he completely misses the impact of the United States in its savvy, 20th century experience with dictators who are inherently psychopathic, and the superiority of the United States and its democracy, its belief in itself, and its willingness -- its determination -- to confront and overcome sinister schemes by tyrants who believe they are the superior race that is destined to rule the world.

Publicus, stop being ridiculous.

Okay, "with more than 1/3 of global trade passing through these waters". Publicus, 1/3 of global trade, well, yes, most of the stuff that is passing through those waters is the cheap Chinese exports leaving China.

"The superiority of the United States and its democracy". Publicus, you're an embarrassment to Americans when coming up with such a ridiculous comment.

And claiming "sinister schemes by tyrants who believe they are the superior race that is destined to rule the world." Publicus, that's your wild accusation. Did the political leaders of America and Europe believe that Europeans and Americans (that's Americans with European ancestry) were a superior race to the rest of the world ?

Actually, I didn't give you the chance to comment on one of your previous posts. Scroll up on this page, you will see it. The quote from your actual writing "CCP was floored by Washington's response to put the USN into the mix and the freedom of navigation operations is driving CCP nuts as they nonetheless continue to proceed but ever more carefully."

Publicus, I ask this, the US Navy patrols, what have they achieved ?

You say that this is driving Beijing nuts ? But those Chinese dots are still being built, concrete is still being poured. In your own words, they "continue to proceed but ever more carefully." What ?? So, the US Navy patrols have caused the construction of the Chinese dots to be done "ever more carefully" ?

They have slowed down (slightly) the speed at which the dots are being built ???

And you still want to come here and claim that Beijing's so-called attempt at claiming the South China Sea has been comprehensively and totally defeated by Washington ?? Stop being silly.

[tonbridgebrit]

http://www.viet-studies.info/kinhte/USStrugglesSSea_FT.pdf


The above is a link from stuff that was in the Financial Times, a respected newspaper in Britain.

The headline "US struggles for strategy to contain China's island-building". It's from almost a year ago.

Hope people can actually see the link by clicking onto it.

[boomerangutang]

Week by week, the territorial grab continues and grows in scope. If I were a Filipino, it would annoy the crap out of me - to see my islands renamed and commandeered by the Chinese. Things are aiming towards confrontation. China, even though it didn't occupy the islands using force, is undoubtedly the most aggressive player in this dangerous game. It deserves to get its face slapped hard. China acts like it's not an aggressor. What a sick joke, particularly because 100% of Han Chinese have no choice but to stand behind the aggressors. They're only allowed to hear one side of the issue, and they don't have the mental ability to see the situation for what it really is. Or, if they do, they can't deign to speak out (for reason) for fear of arrest, or worse. The same reason why no one in China has the courage or is allowed to speak the truth about the Tienamin massacre. If I was Chinese, I'd do what most rich Chinese are doing: trying desperately to leave China (even if I wasn't rich). It's a bit better than several decades ago, during the misery of the Cultural Revolution, but not a whole lot better. China society now, despite lots of money in the cities, is about halfway between N.Korea and a free country. Thailand is a bit better, but only because there's no draconian denial of freedom of speech. Granted, freedom of speech is limited in Thailand, particularly now with martial law, but it's not as bad as N.Korea or China.

[Hammock]

Who needs US to patrol the South China Sea which is thousand miles away from the US?

[boomerangutang]

Who needs US to patrol the South China Sea which is thousand miles away from the US?

Like it or not, the US is like the world's police. Each situation is unique. In former Yugoslavia, the US intervened to try and lessen the genocide there, and enable some small countries to break away from Serbia. The world observed and generally agreed the US did a good thing there.

In Somalia and South Sudan, it's not sure whether the US did much good. They didn't make things worse.

In E.Timor, the US and others enabled the E.Timorese to break free from the cruel dominance of Indonesia.

In Ugunda and Nigeria, the US is assisting local militia in finding and destroying armed groups which rape and kill entire villages.

We all know about Iraq 1 and 2, and Afghanistan. Troubles persist, but who's to say the troubles they're now experiencing would not be worse without US involvement. The US was compelled to invade Afghanistan because it was harboring forces which attacked the US at 9-11.

So yes, it's a mixed bag. It's easy to point fingers and say, "see how bad things are now in fill in the blanks" But for those aware of how things normally are in many of those places, things could be a lot worse without US involvement.

In the SCS, if you've been following this thread, you'll see that the US is involved there because it's friends with the countries which are having their territories commandeered by Chinese. Without US involvement, China could keep going and going with its territory grabs, knowing that no other country would have the temerity to stand up to its military, except maybe Russia or the EU.

Today a few islands off the Fil coast, ....tomorrow; some islands off Papua, or perhaps SW Pacific atolls, or some places in the Indian Ocean, .....or...." Only a few old men in charge of China's politburo know for sure, and they ain't telling.

Edited May 12, 2016 by boomerangutang

[Hammock]

And who has appointed the US to be a "world police"? The UN? Was there a world referendum where it was agreed that tomorrow the US becomes a world police. And why the US? China has a greater population than the US, it is the richest country in the world, why China is not the world police? And why there must be a world police per se?

[Publicus]

Week by week, the territorial grab continues and grows in scope. If I were a Filipino, it would annoy the crap out of me - to see my islands renamed and commandeered by the Chinese. Things are aiming towards confrontation. China, even though it didn't occupy the islands using force, is undoubtedly the most aggressive player in this dangerous game. It deserves to get its face slapped hard. China acts like it's not an aggressor. What a sick joke, particularly because 100% of Han Chinese have no choice but to stand behind the aggressors. They're only allowed to hear one side of the issue, and they don't have the mental ability to see the situation for what it really is. Or, if they do, they can't deign to speak out (for reason) for fear of arrest, or worse. The same reason why no one in China has the courage or is allowed to speak the truth about the Tienamin massacre. If I was Chinese, I'd do what most rich Chinese are doing: trying desperately to leave China (even if I wasn't rich). It's a bit better than several decades ago, during the misery of the Cultural Revolution, but not a whole lot better. China society now, despite lots of money in the cities, is about halfway between N.Korea and a free country. Thailand is a bit better, but only because there's no draconian denial of freedom of speech. Granted, freedom of speech is limited in Thailand, particularly now with martial law, but it's not as bad as N.Korea or China.

China, even though it didn't occupy the islands using force, is undoubtedly the most aggressive player in this dangerous game.

Your points are well taken and they are consistently well made but it is only recently that CCP has withheld using lethal military force in SCS islands against other sovereign states, while recently it has used blockade by its maritime force, as in the Spratlys, to include placing life and ships at a great risk.

CCP fought Vietnam over the Paracels which PLA invaded in 1978 and on other occasions to seize control over the island group. CCP threatened force against Japan over the Senkaku islands in the East Sea between Taiwan and Japan. CCP threatens democratic Taiwan with destruction if it actively pursues its de facto sovereignty (especially with the pro-independency party assuming office this month). CCP is militarising the islands it is currently seizing or creating.

It was the use of military force that had shocked Asean into successfully proposing the Code of Conduct applicable to the SCS which Asean and CCP signed in 2002 after several years of CCP negotiations with Asean.

Then after continued CCP forceful pressing of its demands against Asean in the SCS, and against Japan in the East Sea, Asean proposed the Declaration of the Parties on Conduct in the South China Sea which CCP sabotaged in Cambodia at the 2012 annual meeting of Asean leaders. So now neither is applicable.

Nearly everyone hasn't the remotest clue of how mortified Asean countries are of CCP in the SCS and concerning the CCP throughout the region, from India to Japan. Asean member states see their sovereignty as being directly threatened by CCP Dictators in Beijing. Asean member states individually and as a whole fear becoming tributary states of the CCP Middle Kingdom. It matters little whether CCP would allow local national elites to remain in their offices under the CCP Middle Kingdom system or whether CCP would remove Asean states' sovereignty entirely. The great fear among Asean against CCP is real, to include in Japan, South Korea and on through to India. All of 'em know they need to resist CCP, and that the only effective way to resist is to align with the United States, the G-7, EU, Australia, and that Asean has to hang together lest they hang separately.

We are facing and dealing with the CCP Dictators of the neo-Middle Kingdom in Beijing. The CCP Middle Kingdom definitely positively and absolutely sees its reach as global rather than only regional. It is the USA that stands in the way. Washington knows this as do our allies, strategic partners, long time friends and all of the new friends who are anxious in the extreme of the CCP Dictators of the neo-Middle Kingdom.

[Publicus]

And who has appointed the US to be a "world police"? The UN? Was there a world referendum where it was agreed that tomorrow the US becomes a world police. And why the US? China has a greater population than the US, it is the richest country in the world, why China is not the world police? And why there must be a world police per se?

Because the United States is a modern and a liberal democracy.

CCP is a 5000 year old dictatorship of a new dynasty of emperors in business suits.

The old Middle Kingdom was regional. The CCP Middle Kingdom is global in its sinister designs, intents, purposes.

It's Air-Sea Battle now, no more Air-Land warfare. So all of us need to keep our heads down and our <deleted> lower. It is up to CCP because when you ask just about anyone around here, CCP China are the neighbors from hell.

[Hammock]

China as you said has 5000 years of history, the US has 200 years. Which of them are more experienced? The US is a modern liberal democracy. And what if some country does not share the liberal democracy principles? What happens then?

[Publicus]

And who has appointed the US to be a "world police"? The UN? Was there a world referendum where it was agreed that tomorrow the US becomes a world police. And why the US? China has a greater population than the US, it is the richest country in the world, why China is not the world police? And why there must be a world police per se?

it is the richest country in the world,

Wrong.

CCP China is ranked 84th in GDP per capita by the IMF.

Between Maldives and Iraq.

CCP is the richest political party of the world in its single-party state.

PLA is the military arm of the CCP. PLA is not a state military force. It is the armed force of a single-party state which has its own party armed forces. Political hacks.

Xi Jinping loves the PLA which he's decided to send forward to carry out the Party's designs and purposes.

USA has led the construction and the operation of the extant international and global order, its organisations, structures, systems. CCP Dictators want that gone in favor the CCP order. Trade and bucks pale and shrink when it comes to the final countdown on this.

Edited May 12, 2016 by Publicus

[Publicus]

China as you said has 5000 years of history, the US has 200 years. Which of them are more experienced? The US is a modern liberal democracy. And what if some country does not share the liberal democracy principles? What happens then?

You're watching it so don't blink.

[Publicus]

Whatever the calculated goal of the Obama 'pivot to Asia' one thing is certain, the political side of this equation becomes a 'bridge to far' for the military side of the formula. Under Obama, the US military is in a dire state. As Iran said, [paraphrase] 'the US cannot make safe any place on earth.' This is not untrue because a bozo said it; it seems the Pentagon itself concedes this point.

Military estimates suggest the US is at its lowest ebb since prior to WWII. At a time when the political rhetoric of the US seems to assert its business as usual, and allies are scared, and enemies emboldened, it is a cause for concern that the US seems to be 'politically' unaware of how vulnerable this makes us/US.

(The US could hardly support an Asian logistics train today).

United States is doing fine thx.

President Obama put Iran to bed for a while and set Russia into a freeze in Ukraine and elsewhere.

CCP Dictators in Beijing did get floored by the USN moving into the SCS as a permanent resident so they've had to do some reassessment.

The US Navy Aegis guided missile destroyer USS William P. Lawrence (DDG 110)

sailed inside 12 miles of the Fiery Cross Reef in the South China Sea where Beijing

has built up militarily into an artificial island, on May 10, 2016, prompting China to

express "dissatisfaction and opposition" by scrambling two fighter jets and sending

three warships to observe. It was the first time Beijing had made a military response

to a USN freedom of navigation operation in the Sea. (US Navy Media Content

Operations (NMCO)/AFP)

The freedom of navigation exercises are both smart and effective because they operate inside the 12 nm area of the artificial islands and of the natural islands CCP Dictators want to declare sovereignty over and to consequently claim as having a CCP territorial sea. If CCP doesn't stop the FONOPS, then it concedes no claim of sovereignty, no matter how much or how loudly CCP hollers and flaps their arms that US is violating CCP sovereignty.

Blowhards.

[tonbridgebrit]

United States is doing fine thx.

President Obama put Iran to bed for a while and set Russia into a freeze in Ukraine and elsewhere.

CCP Dictators in Beijing did get floored by the USN moving into the SCS as a permanent resident so they've had to do some reassessment.

The US Navy Aegis guided missile destroyer USS William P. Lawrence (DDG 110)

sailed inside 12 miles of the Fiery Cross Reef in the South China Sea where Beijing

has built up militarily into an artificial island, on May 10, 2016, prompting China to

express "dissatisfaction and opposition" by scrambling two fighter jets and sending

three warships to observe.

The freedom of navigation exercises are both smart and effective because they operate inside the 12 nm area of the artificial islands and of the natural islands CCP Dictators want to declare sovereignty over and to consequently claim as having a CCP territorial sea. If CCP doesn't stop the FONOPS, then it concedes no claim of sovereignty, no matter how much or how loudly CCP hollers and flaps their arms that US is violating CCP sovereignty.

Publicus, and here we go again.

Look, get real, the USS William P. Lawrence, oh, so it is sailing INSIDE the 12 miles of the Fiery Cross Reef in the Souh China Sea ??

But, but, the concrete is still being poured. The construction of new islands are still happening.

And, NO, you have not put Iran to bed. Iran is still there. Your puppet, Saudi Arabia, is still _____ bricks over Iran. Iran is now fully exporting oil, after sanctions have been lifted by Washington. That's because Iran is harmless (yes, Washington knows that Iran is harmless, I certainly know as well), even though you think Iran is not harmless.

Can YOU please answer a basic question ?

The patrols that the US Navy are doing in the South China Sea. Have they caused a single Chinese dot to be NOT built ? Please, please Publicus, reveal any Chinese dot(s) that is/are NOT being built because of the macho display by the US Navy ???

[LawrenceChee]

The reality is even if you move the entire fleet here and have the submarines surface , aircraft carriers with the airplanes deployed and do a blue angel sky show, it won't stop anything.

Any show of force will not be accepted, the USA is here on one authority only ...free navigation and being a busybody to see if there is any freebies later.

The civilians engineers will continue as they have no agenda except being given a project to finish.

They won't be worried about the display of a cutter craft coming within the dots ...it was harder building the high speed railway through the winter across the Tibet plateau

In the meantime the ship chandlers wait in Shanghai port ready to sell their overpriced produce to the ships there for their scheduled R&R stop

[Publicus]

The reality is even if you move the entire fleet here and have the submarines surface , aircraft carriers with the airplanes deployed and do a blue angel sky show, it won't stop anything.

Any show of force will not be accepted, the USA is here on one authority only ...free navigation and being a busybody to see if there is any freebies later.

The civilians engineers will continue as they have no agenda except being given a project to finish.

They won't be worried about the display of a cutter craft coming within the dots ...it was harder building the high speed railway through the winter across the Tibet plateau

In the meantime the ship chandlers wait in Shanghai port ready to sell their overpriced produce to the ships there for their scheduled R&R stop

Few matters are one sided or completely one sided so yes, your Boyz will build on the island and they will continue to create new islands, yes, they will continue to do that. And they will continue to turn all of Asean against 'em, and all of East Asia against 'em, and all of South Asia against 'em (except Pakistan out there near the Gulf/Iran). Just about everyone.

USN meanwhile will be joined by more nations in active involvement in the SCS, the East Sea, the Strait of Malacca, Indian Ocean and the Gulf, out to Iraq, because everyone around knows that is what your Boyz are up to, to take control of all of 'em and the sea lanes in all of these areas.

Your Boyz big mistake along the way will be to try to control freedom of navigation close in to their own shores, i.e., the East Sea or the SCS. That is when the shit will hit the fan for your Dictators. Your Boyz will try to do that. Your Boyz aren't engaging in these arrogant determined, scheduled aggressive behaviors just to put the PLA forces in some places or to sail some ships around somewhere.

The Dictators in Beijing mean to rule the islands, the sea lanes, the seas from Shanghai to Iran and the Gulf to Iraq and Syria. With Iran and Russia. Nothing will happen yet in response to all of that. no. Not presently, not now.

For the present the Scarborough Shoal very close in to the Philippines is the immediate test. CCP is intent on invading Scarborough in the Phils EEZ using its fisherman militia, up to 100 armed fishing boats according to all intelligence sources to include US spy facilities on Taiwan. US will make some response but it is holding its cards close on this one.

We know CCP quit on trying to grab the Senkaku Islands of Japan off the China coast just north of Taiwan between there and Japan, but only after USA made clear it included the Senkaku Islands in its mutual defense treaty back in the early 1950s. That is when your Boyz pulled up stakes and backed off. Scarborough is included in Phils sovereignty in the terms of the US-Phils defense treaty. Your Boyz have moved against Paracels, Spratlys but not Scarborough although seizing Scarborough would complete your Boyz Iron Triangle positioning of its armed forces in the SCS that would turn the Sea into the CCP Strait as all shipping would have to pass through the Triangle.

We'll see because CCP Dictators don't know what to expect of the US at Scarborough and US isn't saying. So you too can join the CCP Dictators to hide and watch. Beijing would be even more delusional to think the new president of the Phils is going to do anything to help 'em or to aid 'em.

The USN freedom of navigation operation approved by Potus Obama that was executed on May 10th occurred on the morning after the Phils general election, during the election campaign in Australia and ten days before the new pro-independence party president of Taiwan officially takes office. And 11 days before his visit to Vietnam which comes two weeks before the G-7 leaders meeting in Japan, in Hiroshima, and with the expected unanimous decision of the Permanent Court of Arbitration due before the end of next month. Youse guyz haven't ever seen USN do a full court press but you may get to experience that, sooner or later.

Edited May 12, 2016 by Publicus

[craigt3365]

Who needs US to patrol the South China Sea which is thousand miles away from the US?

Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, etc. Quite a few in the dispute with China over their actions. A decision should be forthcoming from the tribunal soon. Don't think it's going to go down well for the Chinese.

http://www.smh.com.au/world/court-verdict-looms-in-philippines-v-china-dispute-in-south-china-sea-20160302-gn8i4n.html

"Anti-China sentiments in the Philippines are at a historic high, and it is serving as a new glue for patriotic mobilisation," says Richard Javad Heydarian​, Manila-based academic and author of Asia's New Battlefield: The USA, China, and the Struggle for the Western Pacific. "There is a sense of Cold War 'anti-Red' paranoia, almost."

...............

The Law of the Sea grants countries a 12 nautical mile territorial sea and an exclusive economic zone of 200 nautical miles from the coastline and governs territorial sea rights to various features described poetically as "rocks" and "low tide elevations". China's island-building on what the Philippines says are low-tide elevations appears to be an attempt to create territorial rights around features which, under the law, do not have them.

............

It will be up to the US - ironically one of the handful of nations not party to the Law of the Sea convention - to decide whether to pursue more 'freedom of navigation' exercises through the disputed waters following the tribunal's decision.

[boomerangutang]

And who has appointed the US to be a "world police"? The UN? Was there a world referendum where it was agreed that tomorrow the US becomes a world police. And why the US? China has a greater population than the US, it is the richest country in the world, why China is not the world police? And why there must be a world police per se?

Hammock, you're trying to make a point by asking questions which appear to be rhetorical. But you and everyone else reading them know they aren't rhetorical questions. You're insinuating that the US should stay away from the SCS issue. It won't, and you should know the reasons why - they're listed clearly in the many posts on this thread, and on the internet.

China engages very little (if at all) in world affairs for philosophical reasons. It only engages for purely economic gain (someone's going to pipe up, like a 6 yr old, "well, the US does that also!") . Yes, the US has economic interests ww, and has often stuck its fingers in places it probably shouldn't. Yet the big difference between the US and China re; world affairs, is THE US OFTEN TRIES TO HELP THE LITTLE GUY. China never does that. China didn't lift a finger to help the Kuwaitis or the E.Timorese or the Bosnians, or the South Sudanese or the Somalis .......or any oppressed smaller groups which are threatened by larger entities. The most China does is let the US/EU/AUSNZ/UN put their military/personnel at risk, and when the conflict subsides, Chinese in business suits go walking in with big smiles and contracts needing to be signed.

China is all over Africa, building factories, securing resources. That's ok, but what has China ever done to try to stem any of the serious conflicts going on there? Some of the worst cases of genocide, mass rapes, limbs hacked off, destruction of villages are going on there (even worse than Middle East, if that's possible), .....yet China doesn't care one whit. Let the Africans rape and chop each other up, as long as there are some people left standing to sign contracts with Chinese companies. That's all China is concerned about.

In sum, the US has philosophical (or you could say compassionate) elements involved with its actions overseas. It's made mistakes, and it's always looking for resources like all other countries, .....but there is often is an element of trying to assist locals from being oppressed. Sometimes there's some success, sometimes not, but the impulse to do good is there. It includes Peace Corps, USAID, Red Cross, Amnesty International, military ships bringing aid to calamity-stricken regions, and many other groups, public and private. China has none of that. Indeed, China blocks Taiwanese doctors/nurses from being involved with the HOPE ship. France has Medecins Sans Frontieres. CHINA HAS NONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DO-GOOD ORGANIZATIONS. Even Arabs have a variation of Red Cross for int'l assistance. China doesn't.

Even in the private sector, Americans donate far more than any other nationality - to do-good causes overseas, like earthquakes in Nepal or tsunamis in SE Asia. China has millions of very rich people, but how much do they contribute to international emergencies? Very little comparatively. The message the Chinese are sending to the world is: If you've got problems, if there's a natural calamity, if a weak group is oppressed by a strong group, .....DON'T LOOK TO CHINA FOR HELP. China is only interested in resources. All else is unimportant.

[ExpatOilWorker]

Week by week, the territorial grab continues and grows in scope. If I were a Filipino, it would annoy the crap out of me - to see my islands renamed and commandeered by the Chinese. Things are aiming towards confrontation. China, even though it didn't occupy the islands using force, is undoubtedly the most aggressive player in this dangerous game. It deserves to get its face slapped hard. China acts like it's not an aggressor. What a sick joke, particularly because 100% of Han Chinese have no choice but to stand behind the aggressors. They're only allowed to hear one side of the issue, and they don't have the mental ability to see the situation for what it really is. Or, if they do, they can't deign to speak out (for reason) for fear of arrest, or worse. The same reason why no one in China has the courage or is allowed to speak the truth about the Tienamin massacre. If I was Chinese, I'd do what most rich Chinese are doing: trying desperately to leave China (even if I wasn't rich). It's a bit better than several decades ago, during the misery of the Cultural Revolution, but not a whole lot better. China society now, despite lots of money in the cities, is about halfway between N.Korea and a free country. Thailand is a bit better, but only because there's no draconian denial of freedom of speech. Granted, freedom of speech is limited in Thailand, particularly now with martial law, but it's not as bad as N.Korea or China.

China, even though it didn't occupy the islands using force, is undoubtedly the most aggressive player in this dangerous game.

Your points are well taken and they are consistently well made but it is only recently that CCP has withheld using lethal military force in SCS islands against other sovereign states, while recently it has used blockade by its maritime force, as in the Spratlys, to include placing life and ships at a great risk.

CCP fought Vietnam over the Paracels which PLA invaded in 1978 and on other occasions to seize control over the island group. CCP threatened force against Japan over the Senkaku islands in the East Sea between Taiwan and Japan. CCP threatens democratic Taiwan with destruction if it actively pursues its de facto sovereignty (especially with the pro-independency party assuming office this month). CCP is militarising the islands it is currently seizing or creating.

It was the use of military force that had shocked Asean into successfully proposing the Code of Conduct applicable to the SCS which Asean and CCP signed in 2002 after several years of CCP negotiations with Asean.

Then after continued CCP forceful pressing of its demands against Asean in the SCS, and against Japan in the East Sea, Asean proposed the Declaration of the Parties on Conduct in the South China Sea which CCP sabotaged in Cambodia at the 2012 annual meeting of Asean leaders. So now neither is applicable.

Nearly everyone hasn't the remotest clue of how mortified Asean countries are of CCP in the SCS and concerning the CCP throughout the region, from India to Japan. Asean member states see their sovereignty as being directly threatened by CCP Dictators in Beijing. Asean member states individually and as a whole fear becoming tributary states of the CCP Middle Kingdom. It matters little whether CCP would allow local national elites to remain in their offices under the CCP Middle Kingdom system or whether CCP would remove Asean states' sovereignty entirely. The great fear among Asean against CCP is real, to include in Japan, South Korea and on through to India. All of 'em know they need to resist CCP, and that the only effective way to resist is to align with the United States, the G-7, EU, Australia, and that Asean has to hang together lest they hang separately.

We are facing and dealing with the CCP Dictators of the neo-Middle Kingdom in Beijing. The CCP Middle Kingdom definitely positively and absolutely sees its reach as global rather than only regional. It is the USA that stands in the way. Washington knows this as do our allies, strategic partners, long time friends and all of the new friends who are anxious in the extreme of the CCP Dictators of the neo-Middle Kingdom.

When, in your best estimate, do you see the first hostile shot being fired in the SCS? Could it happen with years or are we still decades away?

Most likely it will a skirmish between an armed Chinese fishing boat and a smaller navy vessel from say Indonesia.

[boomerangutang]

When, in your best estimate, do you see the first hostile shot being fired in the SCS? Could it happen with years or are we still decades away?

Most likely it will a skirmish between an armed Chinese fishing boat and a smaller navy vessel from say Indonesia.

Good questions. There have already been some tiffs, some boat rammings, relatively minor stuff. I heard there's at least one decrepit Phil fishing vessel anchored near one of the Phil islands, and they get supplies brought to them every so often. A thorn in the side of Chinese imperialism.

Conflict is inevitable. I predict a sort of 'peoples' movement' where dozens, perhaps hundreds of small Phil vessels will sail for their islands. What's China gonna do, shoot 'em out of the water? Even if it puts out hooks on ropes to tow the boats, it will look awful for China.

[optad]

When, in your best estimate, do you see the first hostile shot being fired in the SCS? Could it happen with years or are we still decades away?

Most likely it will a skirmish between an armed Chinese fishing boat and a smaller navy vessel from say Indonesia.

Good questions. There have already been some tiffs, some boat rammings, relatively minor stuff. I heard there's at least one decrepit Phil fishing vessel anchored near one of the Phil islands, and they get supplies brought to them every so often. A thorn in the side of Chinese imperialism.

Conflict is inevitable. I predict a sort of 'peoples' movement' where dozens, perhaps hundreds of small Phil vessels will sail for their islands. What's China gonna do, shoot 'em out of the water? Even if it puts out hooks on ropes to tow the boats, it will look awful for China.

Watch this doco on that Philippino outpost.

http://www.abc.net.au/foreign/content/2014/s4008035.htm

[craigt3365]

Really interesting report. Thanks!!

[optad]

^^ It's a great perspective on the issue.

[Publicus]

When, in your best estimate, do you see the first hostile shot being fired in the SCS? Could it happen with years or are we still decades away?

Most likely it will a skirmish between an armed Chinese fishing boat and a smaller navy vessel from say Indonesia.

Good questions. There have already been some tiffs, some boat rammings, relatively minor stuff. I heard there's at least one decrepit Phil fishing vessel anchored near one of the Phil islands, and they get supplies brought to them every so often. A thorn in the side of Chinese imperialism.

Conflict is inevitable. I predict a sort of 'peoples' movement' where dozens, perhaps hundreds of small Phil vessels will sail for their islands. What's China gonna do, shoot 'em out of the water? Even if it puts out hooks on ropes to tow the boats, it will look awful for China.

Because there hasn't been any straight line in the SCS aggressons by CCP it is difficult to find a likely scenario to either side simply firing a shot.

The key is to put CCP Dictators in the position to fire a shot or have to back down. Given it is the CCP that is the forward moving aggressor, it is much easier to take a defensive position or stance against CCP that requires CCP to shoot first or to back off, to stand down. This is the case on any one of several fronts, simultaneously or separately.

CCP has gone to the Paracels off Vietnam to put missiles on Woody Island and claim 2 m sq km of sea, they've moved against the Spratlys to impact the Philippines primarily, beginning in 2012; but CCP has not moved on its bullshit claim against the Scarborough Shoal which is very close in to the Phils capital Manila and which is clearly within the Phils 200 mile EEZ. The three groups of islands and reefs would give CCP its Iron Triangle of territory to transmogrify the SCS into the CCP's Strait located in its new Chinese lake.

Armed guards for fishing fleets, says hawkish ex-PLA chief

Sign at a Beijing restaurant

Xi's fishermen visit seen as warning to South China Sea neighbours

So Scarborough Shoal has come to the forefront as the South China Morning Post in Hong Kong has reported a PLA source as saying CCP will occupy the Shoal this year. CCP foreign ministry meanwhile said they have no knowledge of any such thing. So the doves and the hawks in Beijing seem to be slugging it out over this one, much the way DepState and DepDefense do often in Washington.

CCP has given a very public finger to the Arbitral Court which is expected to rule before June 30th, so everyone expects CCP to move against Scarborough as its concrete action to make its point of defiance. PLA has armed as many as 100 fishing boats and civilian crews as a paid and trained militia for this very purpose.

The thinking in Washington and at Asean is for the Phils to use some coast guard boats donated by Japan and also a US donated maritime cutter or two to block the only entry point to the Shoal.

The usual CCP response to obstructions at sea is to ram 'em. However, CCP fishing boats ramming a larger and metal coast guard cutter is not the best idea, as they'd get the worst of it even if several of 'em at a time did a coordinated ramming. The smaller Phils patrol boats could do their own obstructing, harassing, and ramming of their own.

CCP would need to stage a massive scene at the Shoal entrance to break through a Phils blockade. CCP does have its own maritime ships blockading the shoal's fishing grounds from Phils fishermen, since 2012 when CCP seized control and access to the Shoal. If those ships were brought in to access the Shoal, CCP would provoke a Phils request of US Navy assistance which would anyway be on the horizon throughout.

USN could obstruct and interfere with CCP coast guard ships en route to the Shoal as this would be nothing new. USN ships and CCP fishing boats and maritime ships had already done some banging it out in the East Sea when CCP tried to take control of the Senkaku Islands of Japan from 2009-2013 before CCP gave it up there rather than fight.

Nobody really knows what at this point however. CCP may move against Scarborough before or after the Court announces its ruling, or it may not. CCP will move against Scarborough if they believe they can. It's just that CCP can't be sure at this point whether they could do it in a walk or have to do some slamming and ramming of Phils' ships and boats as they'd done unsuccessfully in the East Sea against Japan and the USN. This time it would the the Phils and the USN.

Here's a history of PLA Navy and USN chasing and bashing in the East Sea and the SCS....

Don’t Believe China Is Looking for a Fight? Years of incidents show heightened belligerence

Aug 26 2015

http://letsfixthiscountry.org/2015/08/26/dont-believe-china-is-looking-for-a-fight/

Edited May 13, 2016 by Publicus

[tonbridgebrit]

When, in your best estimate, do you see the first hostile shot being fired in the SCS? Could it happen with years or are we still decades away?

Most likely it will a skirmish between an armed Chinese fishing boat and a smaller navy vessel from say Indonesia.

Good questions. There have already been some tiffs, some boat rammings, relatively minor stuff. I heard there's at least one decrepit Phil fishing vessel anchored near one of the Phil islands, and they get supplies brought to them every so often. A thorn in the side of Chinese imperialism.

Conflict is inevitable. I predict a sort of 'peoples' movement' where dozens, perhaps hundreds of small Phil vessels will sail for their islands. What's China gonna do, shoot 'em out of the water? Even if it puts out hooks on ropes to tow the boats, it will look awful for China.

Because there hasn't been any straight line in the SCS aggressons by CCP it is difficult to find a likely scenario to either side simply firing a shot.

The key is to put CCP Dictators in the position to fire a shot or have to back down. Given it is the CCP that is the forward moving aggressor, it is much easier to take a defensive position or stance against CCP that requires CCP to shoot first or to back off, to stand down. This is the case on any one of several fronts, simultaneously or separately.

CCP has gone to the Paracels off Vietnam to put missiles on Woody Island and claim 2 m sq km of sea, they've moved against the Spratlys to impact the Philippines primarily, beginning in 2012; but CCP has not moved on its bullshit claim against the Scarborough Shoal which is very close in to the Phils capital Manila and which is clearly within the Phils 200 mile EEZ. The three groups of islands and reefs would give CCP its Iron Triangle of territory to transmogrify the SCS into the CCP's Strait located in its new Chinese lake.

Here's a history of PLA Navy and USN chasing and bashing in the East Sea and the SCS....

Don’t Believe China Is Looking for a Fight? Years of incidents show heightened belligerence

Aug 26 2015

http://letsfixthiscountry.org/2015/08/26/dont-believe-china-is-looking-for-a-fight/

Okay, when will the first missiles be fired ?

"The key is to put CCP Dictators in the position to fire a shot or have to back down. Given it is the CCP that is the forward moving aggressor, it is much easier to take a defensive position or stance against CCP that requires CCP to shoot first or to back off, to stand down. This is the case on any one of several fronts, simultaneously or separately."

Oh, so Washington has to wait for the Chinese to fire a missile first ? So, being the first to fire a missile at one of the Chinese dots is not going to happen, got to wait for the CCP to fire first, and then the US Navy can un-load a ton of missiles onto the Chinese dots ?

Yeah, if you're a security guard, and you start shooting people, well, you're a criminal. The criminal is called a criminal if he fires a bullet first ?

Okay, so we need to see a Chinese missile being fired at whatever US Navy ship first, then we can see Washington release a mass of missiles. Yeah, the CCP won't know what's hit them, such is the superiority of the US military hardware. And how long do we have to wait for Beijing to give orders for firing a missile at whatever US Navy ship ? What if they just carry on pouring concrete, and carry on NOT firing missiles ?

CCP have not fired any missiles yet, that's probably because they know the US Navy has better missiles than the CCP have. So what if the CCP carries on having belief that the US Navy has better missiles ?

Publicus, what was the point of putting up that sign from the Chinese restaurant in Beijing about not wanting customers who are Japanese and Vietnamese ? To stir up racial/ethnic hatred towards China ? Chinese exporters certainly have no problem with Japanese and Vietnamese customers, Chinese exporters are selling a whole load of Chinese goods to Japan and Vietnam. Actually, Japan and Vietnam import more from China than they do from America. What about American tourists in Beijing ? Do they feel un-welcome ? I know a number of British people who have gone to Beijing as tourists, some teach English in Beijing, I can't say that they hate Beijing.

And the link you've put up, from some group called "let's fix America". Yeah, I'm familiar with that site, you should look at their views regarding trade and the TPP, they certainly don't share your views.

And why is it that most of the links you provide are from small and obscure websites ? I mean, I use links from the BBC, CNN, Bloomberg, yahoo, etc. All are "main-stream" media.

[Publicus]

Interesting logic over there by the CCP Boyz in Beijing.

Seize islands and militarise them. Seize some archepelagos and construct islands and militarise them, all the while claiming sovereignty over all the sovereign assertions of other nations. Then say the US military response is the problem.

All any nation needs to go to war is a good provocation, and China is no exception. With its sweeping territorial claims, island-building, militarization, patriotic fervor, and prickly rhetoric, Beijing is setting itself up to be repeatedly provoked in the South China Sea. It might even be counting on it.

Consider the nation’s manmade, militarized island at Fiery Cross Reef in the Spratly archipelago. Though it didn’t even exist a few years ago, and for decades ships from other nations could routinely sail by it without disturbance, now Beijing feels provoked if anyone goes near it—and sends out warnings or makes aggressive gestures in response.

This week the USS William P. Lawrence, a guided missile destroyer from the US Navy, conducted a “freedom of navigation” operation near the island. It deliberately sailed within 12 nautical miles of Fiery Cross Reef. If the US recognized the reef as China’s territory to begin with—which it does not— that would be considered entering China’s territory.

The problem is China has claimed, outrageously, that nearly the entire sea is its own territory.

http://qz.com/680123/beijing-is-setting-the-stage-for-war-in-the-south-china-sea/

More specifically, here's the drill....

1. Make the sea claim.
2. Create outposts in the sea, and work toward turning them into military bases. At this stage, you might want to deny the military bit.
3. Express outrage if anyone goes near those outposts. Over time, establish a pattern of being repeatedly provoked, despite your patient warnings. Your outposts aren’t quite military bases yet anyway, so this is a good use of your time in the meantime.
4. As your outposts get closer to becoming real military bases, feel free to grow more strident in your responses to the “provocations.”
5. Once your military infrastructure is fully up to speed, you’re ready for war—you even have a track record of provocations to point to for justification! Of course you don’t have to start a conflict, but it’s nice to know you can at any time—and feel justified about it.

Given that Beijing is expected to lose at least part of the case that Manila has brought against it in the Permanent Court of Arbitration, China might take action to demonstrate that it will not be constrained by the court’s decision. Potential escalations include re-imposing a blockade of Filipino troops stationed at Second Thomas Shoal, deploying military assets to the Spratly Islands, or announcing an air defense identification zone over the South China Sea—but undertaking reclamation work at Scarborough Shoal would be particularly concerning.

http://amti.csis.org/developing-scarborough-contingency-plan/

[55Jay]

China is pushing their agenda, looking for the resistance point. Then push a bit more to test the resolve of that resistance.

Attempts to paint them as the victim, is a feat of mental gymnastics.

The claims that the US will unleash a torrent of missiles if fired upon once, is deluded fantasy and probably wishful thinking by those predisposed to anti-US hysterics.

The ROE for US ship drivers is, and will continue to be, be very specific. If the US is directly involved in some future flash point, it will be localized and brief. That is, as brief as the Chinese wish to make it.

On that note, continue to agree with Publicus' opinion that, in the face of determined resolve, China will back down, because they are wrong, and they know it.

[craigt3365]

Here's a history of PLA Navy and USN chasing and bashing in the East Sea and the SCS....

Don’t Believe China Is Looking for a Fight? Years of incidents show heightened belligerence

Aug 26 2015

http://letsfixthiscountry.org/2015/08/26/dont-believe-china-is-looking-for-a-fight/

Now you understand why these things are dangerous. Russia's been doing this a lot lately. Only a matter of time before one like this happens:

The worst instance was when a Chinese fighter jet collided with a U.S. EP-3 surveillance plane in 2001. It was forced to land on Hainan, where its 24 crew members were held for 10 days. The Chinese pilot died.

[craigt3365]

China is pushing their agenda, looking for the resistance point. Then push a bit more to test the resolve of that resistance.

Attempts to paint them as the victim, is a feat of mental gymnastics.

The claims that the US will unleash a torrent of missiles if fired upon once, is deluded fantasy and probably wishful thinking by those predisposed to anti-US hysterics.

The ROE for US ship drivers is, and will continue to be, be very specific. If the US is directly involved in some future flash point, it will be localized and brief. That is, as brief as the Chinese wish to make it.

On that note, continue to agree with Publicus' opinion that, in the face of determined resolve, China will back down, because they are wrong, and they know it.

China is 100% pushing this. It would have never gotten to the UN Tribunal if what they were doing was all on the up and up.

The US is ensuring freedom of navigation. It's their prerogative to do so. China does this in US territorial waters. Unimpeded.

I'm not sure they will back down. Huge loss of face, which has already happened when the UN Tribunal accepted the case. And they've said they don't recognize the Tribunal. It will probably end up in back room deals, or out right trade embargoes. Could get nasty.

All about money...

[boomerangutang]

When, in your best estimate, do you see the first hostile shot being fired in the SCS? Could it happen with years or are we still decades away?

Most likely it will a skirmish between an armed Chinese fishing boat and a smaller navy vessel from say Indonesia.

Good questions. There have already been some tiffs, some boat rammings, relatively minor stuff. I heard there's at least one decrepit Phil fishing vessel anchored near one of the Phil islands, and they get supplies brought to them every so often. A thorn in the side of Chinese imperialism.

Conflict is inevitable. I predict a sort of 'peoples' movement' where dozens, perhaps hundreds of small Phil vessels will sail for their islands. What's China gonna do, shoot 'em out of the water? Even if it puts out hooks on ropes to tow the boats, it will look awful for China.

Watch this doco on that Philippino outpost.

http://www.abc.net.au/foreign/content/2014/s4008035.htm

Good documentary. Thanks for posting that link.

Just for balance, I'm imagining what a documentary would look like, if put out by Beijing politburo:

It would start with lots of smiling Chinese students, all dressed in clean white shirts with red scarves. All sparkly clean with bright teeth, silky black hair, and smiling confidently. Chinese flags waving in the background against a blue sky with puffs of pure white clouds, while the Chinese students sing the Chinese national anthem robustly.

Then cut to a clean white Chinese coast guard ship cruising along confidently, with an announcer's voice telling how the islands (with newly-appointed Chinese names) have been Chinese for a long time, while giving proofs of Chinese ownership. Then there would be cuts to expensive Chinese developments on the newly terraformed islands, showing swimming pools, nice houses, palm trees, planes landing, and so on - as proof of Chinese superior development, as opposed to ASEAN countries-style development which consist of rotting ships, and decrepit shelters of coconut fronds.

Then the music would change to minor chords, the skies would be shown as dark and cloudy, and a dimly lit US Naval ship would be shown in the distance (with black smoke billowing out a smokestack?). Announcer would warn how the US is meddling in China's affairs and how Uncle Sam threatens to start a war which it will lose, but not before many innocent people lose their lives. More of the same, until the end of the video which again show images of superior, confident, sparkly clean Chinese youngsters maintaining ownership of what is rightly theirs.