Even though we voted for it, a Brexit won't happen in the end. Here's why

[MJP]

Freedom of movement reform 'on the table' for Brexit talks, suggests French minister as he breaks ranks with rest of EU

France has suggested it is prepared to reach a deal to allow Britain to limit free movement of EU migrants while retaining access to the Single Market.

Michel Sapin, France’s finance minister, said that “everything is on the table” as he appeared to break ranks with the rest of the European Union.

Until now European leaders have insisted that Britain must continue to let in EU migrants if it wants to enjoy the benefits of free trade.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/30/freedom-of-movement-reform-on-the-table-for-brexit-talks-suggest/

[Naam]

Boris withdraws from the contest for PM.

There is a God after all.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/

Smart move on his part. Don't think he wants his reputation to be tainted by what will follow.

perhaps Boris lost his password?

[Naam]

what if there's a Brexit and nobody attends?

[chiang mai]

Boris withdraws from the contest for PM.

There is a God after all.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/

Smart move on his part. Don't think he wants his reputation to be tainted by what will follow.

He reached his peak on Have I Got News For You but then exceeded it as Lord Mayor, it was almost a job too far.

Tainted, ha, not even remotely a leader nor capable.

[HappyDazed]

Boris has bottled it, because he never wanted or expected Brexit..even though he led the leave campaign!

[MJP]

Boris has bottled it, because he never wanted or expected Brexit..even though he led the leave campaign!

It's clear none can handle Brexit, none have the foggiest.

[Franky Bear]

Boris has bottled it, because he never wanted or expected Brexit..even though he led the leave campaign!

It's clear none can handle Brexit, none have the foggiest.

Who ties your shoelaces for you?

[MJP]

Boris has bottled it, because he never wanted or expected Brexit..even though he led the leave campaign!

It's clear none can handle Brexit, none have the foggiest.

Who ties your shoelaces for you?

I wear rigger boots or slip on's old boy.

All we've seen so far is political infighting, nothing to give the UK any confidence thus far.

[Guest]

Boris Johnsson's exit speech

[mommysboy]

One of Britain's most famous fund managers is bullish on Brexit

One of the UK's most famous fund managers, Neil Woodford, says that Brits need to look beyond the short-term fears hitting the markets following the country's vote to leave the European Union, and focus on the long-term gains that can be made as a result of Brexit.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/neil-woodford-on-the-market-impact-of-brexit-and-the-eu-referendum-2016-6

Brexit gives the UK the freedom to maneuver, take advantage of, and participate in financial and cultural trends that it will take the EU a decade to recognize and another decade to act upon. This gives the economy alacrity. Meanwhile, across the channel, Eurosclerosis sets in with a vengeance. Brexit means opportunity. The EU means a moribund, lifeless disaster. The UK has just cut itself free of a cement block that has just gone into the ocean.

Meanwhile, beyond 'freedom to maneuver, take advantage of, and participate in financial and cultural trends' (? sounds like vapid Borism-speak)

back in the 'real' world:

January 21, 2016

Record exports for UK carmakers as demand from Europe grows

*EU accounted for 57.5 per cent of all British car exports

*Sector jobs increased by 17,000, with 814,000 people now employed in the UK automotive sector

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b2445b02-bec9-11e5-846f-79b0e3d20eaf.html#axzz4D353meQh

=============

June 29, 2016

Manufacturers, Consumer Firms Plead for Single-Market Access After Brexit Vote

*Why a Brexit matters to the UK Auto Industry

http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-k-auto-makers-plead-for-single-market-access-after-brexit-vote-1467191997

===============

Sub notes:

*'About a fifth of all cars produced in Germany last year, or around 820,000 vehicles, were exported to the UK'

*'UK produced 1.59 million cars last year. Some 80% of those were exported, mostly to Europe.

*' the average employee making over £110,000 in value-added to the economy'

Any REAL plan Brexiteers to 'maneuver' to preserve and grow these high value-add UK jobs and many others which will be affected?

I'm not a Brexiteer.

Assuming there is no real trade deal, then no there is not a solution and normal WTO trade deals apply.

But what this tells us is that both parties have a lot to lose from a trade war.

The EU tariff on cars is 5-10%, or could be not at all.

I should think BMW are the unhappiest they would get hit with 2 lots of tariffs. I expect they'd have a bit to say about that to the German government.

You have to assume that good sense will prevail.

Also, note UK pound has fallen 10% so that would make UK cars cheaper to buy.

Edited June 30, 2016 by mommysboy

[bkkcanuck8]

...

Also, note UK pound has fallen 10% so that would make UK cars cheaper to buy.

Depends on where all the car parts are made...

[Franky Bear]

I wear rigger boots or slip on's old boy.

All we've seen so far is political infighting, nothing to give the UK any confidence thus far.

Aside from the pound and FTSE doing well....along with big business and banks saying they are staying.....look...an elephant in the room.

[ilostmypassword]

I wear rigger boots or slip on's old boy.

All we've seen so far is political infighting, nothing to give the UK any confidence thus far.

Aside from the pound and FTSE doing well....along with big business and banks saying they are staying.....look...an elephant in the room.

The pound is doing well? You set a very low bar for wellness.

[mommysboy]

...

Also, note UK pound has fallen 10% so that would make UK cars cheaper to buy.

Depends on where all the car parts are made...

Yes that's right. But the main point is that tariffs are low, and a common sense solution would point to there perobably being none at all, though quite how that will be fudged I don't know.

I'm only taking this from surface knowlwdge but I think UK is Europe's number one trading partner in Europe (possibly the world I don't know), and EU enjoys a healthy trade surplus.

One thing I can definitely say is that in business it's not a good idea to start a war with your best customer, either way. And UK certainly is not in a position to want to lose export custom either.

It all points to an amicable settlement.

[ilostmypassword]

...

Also, note UK pound has fallen 10% so that would make UK cars cheaper to buy.

Depends on where all the car parts are made...

Yes that's right. But the main point is that tariffs are low, and a common sense solution would point to there perobably being none at all, though quite how that will be fudged I don't know.

I'm only taking this from surface knowlwdge but I think UK is Europe's number one trading partner in Europe (possibly the world I don't know), and EU enjoys a healthy trade surplus.

One thing I can definitely say is that in business it's not a good idea to start a war with your best customer, either way. And UK certainly is not in a position to want to lose export custom either.

It all points to an amicable settlement.

The only problem with that is if they agree to a settlement that demands less obligations of the UK but the same privileges, other EU members are going to want the same.

[Jingthing]

I kind of admire Boris for knowing his limits.

[Thaiwine]

Andrea Leadsom stands for PM job she nails her colours to the mast, she gives Brexit hope

[mommysboy]

...

Also, note UK pound has fallen 10% so that would make UK cars cheaper to buy.

Depends on where all the car parts are made...

Yes that's right. But the main point is that tariffs are low, and a common sense solution would point to there perobably being none at all, though quite how that will be fudged I don't know.

I'm only taking this from surface knowlwdge but I think UK is Europe's number one trading partner in Europe (possibly the world I don't know), and EU enjoys a healthy trade surplus.

One thing I can definitely say is that in business it's not a good idea to start a war with your best customer, either way. And UK certainly is not in a position to want to lose export custom either.

It all points to an amicable settlement.

The only problem with that is if they agree to a settlement that demands less obligations of the UK but the same privileges, other EU members are going to want the same.

I don't pretend to know the solution. But I imagine there will be aface saver for both parties.

EU really must reform its open border policy, it really must. And UK is not opposed to immigration per se, just wants control.

IMO, we both really need each other.

[sujoop]

I kind of admire Boris for knowing his limits.

Look for BoJo's doppelganger/con-man/self-opportunist Trump to also tap out in a similar theatrical performance either at convention, or before election day. Meanwhile, Boris will re-opportune after 'his' strategically abdicated dirty work is finished by others, in doing so tainting/finishing themselves off and opening the door for a 'fresh' Boris to return. Too clever by half is our boy Boris (which is apparently sufficiently more than enough to keep ahead of those who follow him, Nige et al;)

Edited June 30, 2016 by sujoop

[SheungWan]

...

Also, note UK pound has fallen 10% so that would make UK cars cheaper to buy.

Depends on where all the car parts are made...

Yes that's right. But the main point is that tariffs are low, and a common sense solution would point to there perobably being none at all, though quite how that will be fudged I don't know.

I'm only taking this from surface knowlwdge but I think UK is Europe's number one trading partner in Europe (possibly the world I don't know), and EU enjoys a healthy trade surplus.

One thing I can definitely say is that in business it's not a good idea to start a war with your best customer, either way. And UK certainly is not in a position to want to lose export custom either.

It all points to an amicable settlement.

The only problem with that is if they agree to a settlement that demands less obligations of the UK but the same privileges, other EU members are going to want the same.

Precisely.

[jope]

Of the four freedoms, the freedom of movement of persons is the most sacred, so to say. It is the freedom that actually every European citizen can experience directly and personally. There is NO way to reach a compromise. If the UK wants access to the single market the UK will leave the freedom of movement of persons untouched. There must not be any limitation at all. In short: abandon all hope (in that regard).

[NeverSure]

the contributors of "NULL-hedge" are excellent economic counterindicators since the inception in spring 2009 when they warned "don't touch any financials!"

stupid me did not listen but bought financials left and right with profits up to 350% within a period of less than six months.

I've been posting here "buy when there is blood in the streets" (Baron Rothschild) and the Footsie has been very good to me. Without looking right now I "think" the market is higher today than it was just before Brexit.

I seem to believe a lot stronger in the UK than its own people do.

If the UK will show backbone, cut trading deals with English speaking countries that aren't on their lips like so many EU countries are they will do fine. If they tuck their tails between their legs and run back to the EU they are finished. The EU is a parasite.

Countries in the EU won't refuse to trade with the UK. There's simply too much money involved. The UK is one of the world's largest economies and can't be ignored by wannabes.

Better out.

Cheers.

[NeverSure]

So. If the young people of the UK were attacked by a Hitler today would they fight back or would they wind up being lampshades and bars of soap? In the end I think they'd fight back but they'd have to change their mindset some.

Cheers.

[jope]

So. If the young people of the UK were attacked by a Hitler today would they fight back or would they wind up being lampshades and bars of soap? In the end I think they'd fight back but they'd have to change their mindset some.

Cheers.

You are saying that the EU is another Hitler?

[Thaiwine]

Of the four freedoms, the freedom of movement of persons is the most sacred, so to say. It is the freedom that actually every European citizen can experience directly and personally. There is NO way to reach a compromise. If the UK wants access to the single market the UK will leave the freedom of movement of persons untouched. There must not be any limitation at all. In short: abandon all hope (in that regard).

If it is no free trade with out free movement of people, we will have to go for trade with tariffs, that would be sad as it would make products more expensive for both parties, as the UK imports more than we export to the EU tariffs would proberbaly mean more money to the UK than we pay to the EU, dependant on product quantaties and related tariffs,

[Grouse]

My understanding is that a lot of people voted to leave based on xenophobia and racism. So the day after their "victory" they realized the Poles and the Muslims, etc. aren't going anywhere. Oops!

As a non Brit you understand...........

Substantially more than you I suspect ?

[Grouse]

Of the four freedoms, the freedom of movement of persons is the most sacred, so to say. It is the freedom that actually every European citizen can experience directly and personally. There is NO way to reach a compromise. If the UK wants access to the single market the UK will leave the freedom of movement of persons untouched. There must not be any limitation at all. In short: abandon all hope (in that regard).

If it is no free trade with out free movement of people, we will have to go for trade with tariffs, that would be sad as it would make products more expensive for both parties, as the UK imports more than we export to the EU tariffs would proberbaly mean more money to the UK than we pay to the EU, dependant on product quantaties and related tariffs,

Even Boris disagrees with you. Even your economists have deserted you. You were wrong but we will have to fix things for the Brexiteers.

[Grouse]

So. If the young people of the UK were attacked by a Hitler today would they fight back or would they wind up being lampshades and bars of soap? In the end I think they'd fight back but they'd have to change their mindset some.

Cheers.

You are saying that the EU is another Hitler?

No it's another Brexiteer fool insinuating that Europeans are cowards and would surrender to another facist regime. Pathetic.

[Grouse]

Andrea Leadsom stands for PM job she nails her colours to the mast, she gives Brexit hope

I hope somebody nails her to the mast

What an evil bitch, she makes Thatcher look like mother Teresa!

She stands no chance

Edited June 30, 2016 by Grouse

[NeverSure]

If the major EU countries don't put together a good trade agreement with the UK they will be shooting themselves. Germany would lose a million jobs. Where are those Germans who make things for export to the UK going to work?

A deal will be worked out if the UK will stand its ground.

Cheers.