SURVEY: Do you believe the recent bombings will continue?

[Scott]

Although the Thai government is denying that the recent spate of bombings is tied to the Southern insurgency, most security analysts believe that it is.   Do you believe it is tied to the Southern insurgency and do you believe the bombings will continue to spread outside o the Southern most provinces?

 

Please feel free to leave a comment.

 

 

 

[Srikcir]

The 3rd answer would be better as - I don't believe that the bombings are related to the Southern insurgency but will continue.

[Bannoi]

Logically linking the bombings to the Southern insurgency would seem to make sense but on the other hand Thai logic has always baffled me.

[Reigntax]

And the 5th answer. Do you believe the military are behind the bombings and they will be used to arrest and incarcerate political opponents, be used to justify the continuing abuse of human rights and further be used to justify the delay of elections which the junta have no intention of ever allowing to occur.

[robblok]

7 minutes ago, Reigntax said:

And the 5th answer. Do you believe the military are behind the bombings and they will be used to arrest and incarcerate political opponents, be used to justify the continuing abuse of human rights and further be used to justify the delay of elections which the junta have no intention of ever allowing to occur.

 

Yes that is a good question too.. but should be added.. please store tinfoil for your hat if you think that. 

[Dexlowe]

With the amount of prevarication going on, and conflicting statements about who was responsible - including from, would you believe, the Tourism Ministry  - I don't see how we can form an opinion. It's all hearsay and facts are reliant upon what the junta wants to tell the people. Plus there's the inevitable speculation (which make for good reading at times). For example, one theory is that the perps were southern insurgents, but whom were acting as mercenaries (probably to get a quick cash injection), and that has as much truth as any other theory so far. 

 

 

[Kwasaki]

No opinion or idea really only time will tell.

[Reigntax]

6 minutes ago, robblok said:

 

Yes that is a good question too.. but should be added.. please store tinfoil for your hat if you think that. 

 

No need for tinfoil, its already occurring and only one week after the referendum they are already changing the interpretation of how the PM will be "selected" to keep him in power

[worgeordie]

If they do not catch the actual bomb makers, I am sure they will continue,and they will move out of the South,just like the IRA did, they were getting no response from the British Government,so moved their bombing campaign to the  mainland, bombing London, Birmingham,and the bomb that nearly got Maggie at Brighton.

 

Thaksin started the escalation,by referring to them as criminals and bandits,saying there are no insurgents in Thailand, plus a lot more mistakes by the @$&y has only made things worse.

regards Worgeordie

[dageurreotype]

I really don't know how we mere farang on some expat forum are supposed to form an opinion on this. We are not privy to Intelligence, and it seems, neither are the junta.

[elgordo38]

46 minutes ago, Srikcir said:

The 3rd answer would be better as - I don't believe that the bombings are related to the Southern insurgency but will continue.

I agree. 

 

9 minutes ago, Reigntax said:

 

No need for tinfoil, its already occurring and only one week after the referendum they are already changing the interpretation of how the PM will be "selected" to keep him in power

Your right he is already doing the blushing bride routine in one of the leading newspapers saying that if no one suitable can be found he will entertain the idea of being PM if asked. 

[Suradit69]

Quote

Do you believe the recent bombings will continue?

 

I think you mean "do you believe there will be more bombings." Unless one of the bombs recently placed has an extraordinarily long fuse or timer, the recent bombings have already ended.

[Franky Bear]

When has any terror organisation stopped bombing until they are jailed, killed or beaten?

[elgordo38]

32 minutes ago, Reigntax said:

And the 5th answer. Do you believe the military are behind the bombings and they will be used to arrest and incarcerate political opponents, be used to justify the continuing abuse of human rights and further be used to justify the delay of elections which the junta have no intention of ever allowing to occur.

A stretch but not out of the realm of possibility. Maybe the Southern bombers felt that they were not being taken seriously enough after killing over 6,000 people and have started to move north to get the governments attention. Nothing like a little noise in Bangkok to get their attention. The timing shortly after the referendum looked rather suspicious and also the special day chosen. But again could have been used to throw the government off of the track. They are not exactly bloodhounds when it comes to finding the perps. Fasten your seat belts only time will tell. Lets just hope they do not catch onto using the deadly belts used by ISIS. The one used in Turkey today at a wedding did a horrendous amount of mayhem and damage.

[robblok]

20 minutes ago, Reigntax said:

 

No need for tinfoil, its already occurring and only one week after the referendum they are already changing the interpretation of how the PM will be "selected" to keep him in power

 

Tinfoil to think a junta who is in full power would bomb tourist spots and gain the worlds attention and get economic problems. To what end.. gain power.. they have that.. they can already pretty much do what they want. So yes people who think that i consider people with tinfoil hats.

 

Your second statement has nothing to do with the first. 

[elgordo38]

10 minutes ago, dageurreotype said:

I really don't know how we mere farang on some expat forum are supposed to form an opinion on this. We are not privy to Intelligence, and it seems, neither are the junta.

Give them a little credit they just might stumble across something by accident. I know they are one step below inspector Clouseau but like the stacked referendum they are learning by their mistakes. 

[balo]

I answered yes and that they will NOT spread further north .  

I guess I'm just an optimistic guy. 

[dageurreotype]

Just now, elgordo38 said:

Give them a little credit they just might stumble across something by accident. I know they are one step below inspector Clouseau but like the stacked referendum they are learning by their mistakes. 

 

So they caught the Erawan Shrine bomber then?

[dageurreotype]

4 minutes ago, robblok said:

 

Tinfoil to think a junta who is in full power would bomb tourist spots and gain the worlds attention and get economic problems. To what end.. gain power.. they have that.. they can already pretty much do what they want. So yes people who think that i consider people with tinfoil hats.

 

Your second statement has nothing to do with the first. 

 

Whilst I believe it unlikely, given the reasons you cite, this 'false flag' theory was first promulgated by the BBC in their initial report. No too far fetched in a way. Prayuth's made no secret of the fact he wants Thailand to return to it's little serfdom self many times.

[sujoop]

 

Perhaps Mr Thaksin could help in this matter as he appears on good terms with BRN, having held several meetings with them overseas:

The ex-PM met with a (BRN) group led by Hasan Taib for the first time in Dubai, where Thaksin has been in self-exile since 2008
http://www.bt.com.bn/2013/03/11/thai-rebel-group-trusts-thaksin-peace-initiative

 

 

Edited August 21, 2016 by sujoop
edit format

[NongKhaiKid]

Some of the recent surveys are rather heavily loaded as the voting options are limited.

In respect of this one I have no idea who is responsible because the evidence available is insufficient or untrustworthy and I'm not going to speculate and that sort of thing shouldn't be encouraged for such a serious issue just to stir responses.

[Psimbo]

Cue tinfoil hat brigade!

[cockatoowho]

1 hour ago, robblok said:

 

Tinfoil to think a junta who is in full power would bomb tourist spots and gain the worlds attention and get economic problems. To what end.. gain power.. they have that.. they can already pretty much do what they want. So yes people who think that i consider people with tinfoil hats.

 

Your second statement has nothing to do with the first. 

The only tinfoil here is your argument, very thin. Governments all over the world have been using red flag events for a myriad of reasons, to just brush it aside by using the pathetic recourse that it is a conspiracy theory is not only naive but very ignorant. Due to your simplistic views of the world it would be a lost cause attempting to enlighten you to why they (government) are most likely responsible.

[Credo]

I am reasonably convinced that the bombings are related to the Southern insurgency and that they will continue to spread further North.   I suspect that there will be a lull now as they will lay low and then they will resume, at least occasionally.

 

The older generation of fighters were content to remain on their home turf, but the chances are that the younger generation is a little more internationalized than the older folks and a little more eager to send a message to the government.   

 

This fight is almost exclusively with the government, so there is less of a need for them to take credit for the bombings.   I suspect they know that the officials know who is responsible. They are a little different than some of the Middle East Terrorist groups who are also fighting each other and vying for power and members.   The Southern insurgents have much less competition amongst themselves.   

 

The idea that it is a false flag operation is pretty remote.   The current military-dominated regime simply has too much power and control to bother with such an operation.   The idea of a faction within the military, police or some other branch of officialdom is possible, but again, quite remote.   

 

It's also quite unlikely to be a political faction vying for power.   The Redshirts, for example, are under too much scrutiny and surveillance to organize and pull it off.   The government would love to pin it on them, but the dots just don't connect to them.   Those opposed to the referendum would have most likely taken action before the vote, not after.     

 

Within the country, all of the various factions, as a very general rule, wish to make the impact felt on other Thais.   Foreigners and tourists simply are not the intended target.   

 

The main group that has something to gain by such an action on a national holiday and targeting international tourists are the Southern insurgents.   

 

The big question is with this foray out of the deep South, are they receiving help, funding and logistical support from international terrorist organizations?

[cumgranosalum]

"Although the Thai government is denying that the recent spate of bombings is tied to the Southern insurgency, most security analysts believe that it is.  " - not true - next topic, please.

[cumgranosalum]

Lest we forget - a few cuttings from Wiki

The 2006 Bangkok bombings occurred on 31 December 2006 and 1 January 2007, during New Year’s Eve festivities in Bangkok, Thailand. Four explosions went off almost simultaneously in different parts of the city at around 18:00 local time (11:00 UTC), followed by several more explosions within the next 90 minutes. Two explosions also occurred after midnight. In total, eight explosions were reported during the night.

No one has ever claimed responsibility for the Bangkok bombings. Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont blamed the “old power clique” as the group responsible for the bombings, referring to the deposed government of Thaksin Shinawatra as well as all those who had lost political power due to the 2006 military coup

 

police investigation later determined that southern separatists were actually behind the bombings. Detonation circuits and other materials used to make the bombs were identical to those used by the Islamic insurgents.[11] However, the junta downplayed the role of the southern separatists, claiming they had been hired by people connected to the political turmoil in Bangkok.[12]

[ChrisY1]

28 minutes ago, Credo said:

I am reasonably convinced that the bombings are related to the Southern insurgency and that they will continue to spread further North.   I suspect that there will be a lull now as they will lay low and then they will resume, at least occasionally.

 

The older generation of fighters were content to remain on their home turf, but the chances are that the younger generation is a little more internationalized than the older folks and a little more eager to send a message to the government.   

 

This fight is almost exclusively with the government, so there is less of a need for them to take credit for the bombings.   I suspect they know that the officials know who is responsible. They are a little different than some of the Middle East Terrorist groups who are also fighting each other and vying for power and members.   The Southern insurgents have much less competition amongst themselves.   

 

The idea that it is a false flag operation is pretty remote.   The current military-dominated regime simply has too much power and control to bother with such an operation.   The idea of a faction within the military, police or some other branch of officialdom is possible, but again, quite remote.   

 

It's also quite unlikely to be a political faction vying for power.   The Redshirts, for example, are under too much scrutiny and surveillance to organize and pull it off.   The government would love to pin it on them, but the dots just don't connect to them.   Those opposed to the referendum would have most likely taken action before the vote, not after.     

 

Within the country, all of the various factions, as a very general rule, wish to make the impact felt on other Thais.   Foreigners and tourists simply are not the intended target.   

 

The main group that has something to gain by such an action on a national holiday and targeting international tourists are the Southern insurgents.   

 

The big question is with this foray out of the deep South, are they receiving help, funding and logistical support from international terrorist organizations?

 

Good post Credo,

IMO, you're pretty much on the ball that these recent incidents are related to the southerners.

You're reasoning dismissing the reds is without doubt correct.....too much scrutiny on them at present and their level of expertise is questionable.

I'm not convinced as you are, that the tourist industry is not the target......I think that's the best target for immediate media coverage and negative reporting for Thailand and the ruling military.

Will these incidents continue?......again, IMO, if the government continues their path of ignoring the southern situation....the attackers could well escalate their efforts.......no-one to date has been caught....

The Erawan Shrine bombing case, 12 months on, has not progressed......

Edited August 21, 2016 by ChrisY1

[Thailand]

4 hours ago, sujoop said:

 

Perhaps Mr Thaksin could help in this matter as he appears on good terms with BRN, having held several meetings with them overseas:

The ex-PM met with a (BRN) group led by Hasan Taib for the first time in Dubai, where Thaksin has been in self-exile since 2008
http://www.bt.com.bn/2013/03/11/thai-rebel-group-trusts-thaksin-peace-initiative

 

 

Go ginjag!

[Franky Bear]

51 minutes ago, Credo said:

I am reasonably convinced that the bombings are related to the Southern insurgency and that they will continue to spread further North.   I suspect that there will be a lull now as they will lay low and then they will resume, at least occasionally.

 

The older generation of fighters were content to remain on their home turf, but the chances are that the younger generation is a little more internationalized than the older folks and a little more eager to send a message to the government.   

 

This fight is almost exclusively with the government, so there is less of a need for them to take credit for the bombings.   I suspect they know that the officials know who is responsible. They are a little different than some of the Middle East Terrorist groups who are also fighting each other and vying for power and members.   The Southern insurgents have much less competition amongst themselves.   

 

The idea that it is a false flag operation is pretty remote.   The current military-dominated regime simply has too much power and control to bother with such an operation.   The idea of a faction within the military, police or some other branch of officialdom is possible, but again, quite remote.   

 

It's also quite unlikely to be a political faction vying for power.   The Redshirts, for example, are under too much scrutiny and surveillance to organize and pull it off.   The government would love to pin it on them, but the dots just don't connect to them.   Those opposed to the referendum would have most likely taken action before the vote, not after.     

 

Within the country, all of the various factions, as a very general rule, wish to make the impact felt on other Thais.   Foreigners and tourists simply are not the intended target.   

 

The main group that has something to gain by such an action on a national holiday and targeting international tourists are the Southern insurgents.   

 

The big question is with this foray out of the deep South, are they receiving help, funding and logistical support from international terrorist organizations?

Out evert single post i have read on TV, and there has been some excellent posts on a variety of topics, this's the best post i have read. Mr Credo has put forward a very level headed thought out logical post that is very hard to pick any hole in.

Good job Sir.

[Credo]

1 hour ago, ChrisY1 said:

 

Good post Credo,

IMO, you're pretty much on the ball that these recent incidents are related to the southerners.

You're reasoning dismissing the reds is without doubt correct.....too much scrutiny on them at present and their level of expertise is questionable.

I'm not convinced as you are, that the tourist industry is not the target......I think that's the best target for immediate media coverage and negative reporting for Thailand and the ruling military.

Will these incidents continue?......again, IMO, if the government continues their path of ignoring the southern situation....the attackers could well escalate their efforts.......no-one to date has been caught....

The Erawan Shrine bombing case, 12 months on, has not progressed......

My apologies if I let you to believe that the target was not foreigners or tourists.   For the Southern insurgent, it was.   If it had been perpetrated by a branch of officialdom or by the Redshirts, it would have been more specific to Thais.

 

The Southern insurgents have long wanted the situation in the South internationalized, at least to some degree.   The government, on the other hand, does not want it internationalized, or advertised or any outside 'interference' on the issue.

 

Outside of the South, though, it is hard for the insurgents to have the knowledge, logistics or support to target government officials.   It also does not have to be careful not to harm too many local Muslim/Malay people.   Collateral damage in the South damages their cause.   Further North, it does not.