SheungWan Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 (edited) 14 minutes ago, billd766 said: Can I join your gang please as I voted to leave too? Opinions are 2-a-penny. Outcomes are to be measured and the trashing of sterling is the price of the vote to leave. The Downside Gang. Edited October 6, 2016 by SheungWan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grouse Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 May is now trying to stop the rout by saying interest rates yhave fallen far enough. She now wants to switch to fiscal policy adjustments to raise funding for infrastructure. What do you think? VAT hike? New NHS tax? Abolish winter fuel benefit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arithai12 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 19 hours ago, Grouse said: Can nobody get anything right? 1.30 was the previous floor. Now the corks out at 1.27. 2.5% is non-trivial IMHO Look at the charts for goodness sake.... Don't give up your day job Previous floor what? Do look at the big picture, I know it's not nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grouse Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 29 minutes ago, arithai12 said: Previous floor what? Do look at the big picture, I know it's not nice. No real logic to it but traders sense psychological floors. There had been some resistance at the level I suggest. I am not a forex trader just a dumb engineer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeremy50 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 On 04/10/2016 at 6:40 PM, ukrules said: It's just above 44.2 Baht to the pound, slightly lower than the previous low around mid August which was 44.6 I guess the question is, will it continue to fall ? Forecast to go as low as 38. I don't doubt it, especially if Germany and France put the boot in..................which they will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SheungWan Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 (edited) 1 hour ago, Grouse said: May is now trying to stop the rout by saying interest rates yhave fallen far enough. She now wants to switch to fiscal policy adjustments to raise funding for infrastructure. What do you think? VAT hike? New NHS tax? Abolish winter fuel benefit? The question for expats is whether they should hang around waiting for better/worse days from sterling or cash up a wedge now and take what's on the table. Edited October 6, 2016 by SheungWan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evadgib Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 1 hour ago, Jeremy50 said: Forecast to go as low as 38. I don't doubt it, especially if Germany and France put the boot in..................which they will. Do they think that by doing so we'll go scurrying back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy Joe Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 (edited) 2 hours ago, SheungWan said: The question for expats is whether they should hang around waiting for better/worse days from sterling or cash up a wedge now and take what's on the table. You are absolutely right. And to be more precise I don't see any reason for a short or medium term recovery, absolutely none. 1 The uncertainty fueled by the government May deters all investment. 2 Europe is strategically obliged to penalize the UK to deter other states. It is therefore not dreaming, there will be no blank check or special advantage. 3 Currently the Pound is affected only by speculation. Tomorrow the real economic consequences will come with effective break. And there is absolutely no reason to foresee an improvement. 4 Finally, the grotesque spectacle of Big Boris now advocating the entry of Turkey into EU blames on the government as a whole. Who would trust these people ? That is why if it left me some values in Pound I would get rid quickly. Edited October 6, 2016 by happy Joe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SheungWan Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 xe.com seemed to show GBPTHB holding at 44+ baht during the last few days but has just slipped below 44. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 3 hours ago, SheungWan said: xe.com seemed to show GBPTHB holding at 44+ baht during the last few days but has just slipped below 44. Not so, XE.com showing GBP/THB at 43.04. http://www.xe.com/currency/gbp-british-pound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SheungWan Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Just now, chiang mai said: Not so, XE.com showing GBP/THB at 43.04. http://www.xe.com/currency/gbp-british-pound Yes. Just watched CNBC reporting that GBPUSD plunging an extra 6%. Cable now below $1.24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Just now, SheungWan said: Yes. Just watched CNBC reporting that GBPUSD plunging an extra 6%. Cable now below $1.24 It's toast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrules Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 9 minutes ago, chiang mai said: Not so, XE.com showing GBP/THB at 43.04. http://www.xe.com/currency/gbp-british-pound It was above 44 until Thursday the 6th when it took a dive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SheungWan Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Here we go: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockingrobin Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 51 minutes ago, SheungWan said: Here we go: Some institutions saying it was trading at 1.12,1.13 overnight, currently in the high 1.23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laughing Gravy Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 20 hours ago, Grouse said: You are entitled to your delusions! I note you STILL miss the executive/parliament point. Look it up Grouse I was trying to think of what you remind me of and all I can think of is a doomsday prepper. Before the brexit vote and directly after on this forum you were forecasting the end of the world as we know it so to speak because the UK had democratically voted to leave the EU. You where wrong on that. the markets recovered after a few days. Even Lagrade has the courage to say she got it wrong and she is in charge of the IMF. http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/718425/IMF-Brexit-mild-economy-Christine-Lagarde-EU-money-UK The Brexit campaign mentioned on numerous times the IMF had got it wrong in the past. Are you going to be an adult and admit you were wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 The markets "recovered" in a few days after the vote because of foreign earnings when the Pound devalued by ten per cent, a process that continues today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laughing Gravy Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 9 minutes ago, chiang mai said: The markets "recovered" in a few days after the vote because of foreign earnings when the Pound devalued by ten per cent, a process that continues today. But the forecasts and the scaremongering of millions of job losses and empty shelves in supermarkets simply didn't happen. George Osborne and the likes simply got it wrong as did Grouse. That is my point. I guess it is if you see the glass half empty or half full scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theguyfromanotherforum Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 I am not an expert in scummy FX manipulated exchanges, but from what I have seen in the past when the bleeding starts it takes a white for it to stop. So, if I was a brit and had some savings I would take 43 baht right now because it is bloody obvious it's going below 40 short term (6-12 months). Of course, there is no reason for a pound to be this low, but when the scum is manipulating the currency you have no choice but to give up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnyo Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 The GBP is down because markets work on sentiments. Is it scummy? maybe but its the way they work. Whilst the British economy is still one of the strongest in the world this is partly due (the Brexiters will probably deny this) due to the fact that it has been in the EU for for 40 years. The message from the Conservative conference is clear; Immigration before the economy. Nothing wrong with that if that is what matters to you but the markets understand this to be a disaster and Hammond can go and sell his arse in Walll Street all day long but no one is going to listen. The Economic impact is not being felt now but the markets know what is coming. The UK is going to lose its biggest industry, financial services. The EU is going to be ruthless and there is no way the UK will be able to keep being the financial center of the EU. Add to the mix the lack of manufacturing (UK owned companies) and the markets are reacting accordingly. I guess the British think its a worthwhile sacrifice to have their country back, at least is what the majority voted for. I think in the long term Britain will thrive but IMHO the next two decades are going to be really tough..specially if you depend on a pension and living abroad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chivas Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Johnyo said: The GBP is down because markets work on sentiments. Is it scummy? maybe but its the way they work. Whilst the British economy is still one of the strongest in the world this is partly due (the Brexiters will probably deny this) due to the fact that it has been in the EU for for 40 years. The message from the Conservative conference is clear; Immigration before the economy. Nothing wrong with that if that is what matters to you but the markets understand this to be a disaster and Hammond can go and sell his arse in Walll Street all day long but no one is going to listen. The Economic impact is not being felt now but the markets know what is coming. The UK is going to lose its biggest industry, financial services. The EU is going to be ruthless and there is no way the UK will be able to keep being the financial center of the EU. Add to the mix the lack of manufacturing (UK owned companies) and the markets are reacting accordingly. I guess the British think its a worthwhile sacrifice to have their country back, at least is what the majority voted for. I think in the long term Britain will thrive but IMHO the next two decades are going to be really tough..specially if you depend on a pension and living abroad. Days are numbered we already have many in France and Spain returning home because of Sterlings weakness. 1.42 Euro July 2015 barely buying 1.10 now. The Baht at BB opened at 42.38 will push many here to returning home also Edited October 7, 2016 by Chivas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 1 hour ago, rockingrobin said: Some institutions saying it was trading at 1.12,1.13 overnight, currently in the high 1.23 some institutions were referring to GBP EUR! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elliss Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 6:00 PM, SheungWan said: And since this is an expats forum sterling's dive is bad for those on sterling incomes. The horrible choice now for those wholly in sterling is whether to change more now (assuming one can) or hope for a bounce. Maybe in Thailand, Brexit supporters should be forced to cover sterling holder's losses. An IOU on the back of a plastic Union Jack is what they are currently offering. Change now . It will be minus 40 soon , a bleak winter . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 48 minutes ago, theguyfromanotherforum said: I am not an expert in scummy FX manipulated exchanges, but from what I have seen in the past when the bleeding starts it takes a white for it to stop. So, if I was a brit and had some savings I would take 43 baht right now because it is bloody obvious it's going below 40 short term (6-12 months). Of course, there is no reason for a pound to be this low, but when the scum is manipulating the currency you have no choice but to give up. there's always a reason for a currency to fall or to appreciate. only ignorants blame it on "scummy manipulation". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnyo Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 (edited) 21 minutes ago, Chivas said: Days are numbered we already have many in France and Spain returning home because of Sterlings weakness. 1.42 Euro July 2015 barely buying 1.10 now. The Baht at BB opened at 42.38 will push many here to returning home also Not sure how much that is going help if the GBP remains low. The UK is net importer so with a weak Stirling everything is going to cost more back home. Already fuel prices are up and it wont be long before the pinch is felt at the supermarket too Edited October 7, 2016 by Johnyo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orac Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 1 hour ago, rockingrobin said: Some institutions saying it was trading at 1.12,1.13 overnight, currently in the high 1.23 21 minutes ago, Naam said: some institutions were referring to GBP EUR! The drop to 1.12 was only for a minute according to this screenshot from Sky News political editor Faisal Islam: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 On 10/6/2016 at 1:22 AM, Anthony5 said: With balls you mean crystal balls, right? Quote On 10/6/2016 at 1:17 AM, BKKdreaming said: the US $ was crazy high in the 80s it was up to 3 ,50 DM and I think the UK pound was $1.10 or so ...... but then it went the other way and was 1.30 DM and about $2 for a UK pound...... Great way to make a profit if you have the balls for it :) making a decision based on an extreme long term trend does not require any balls. the appreciation USD vs. GBP lasted four years (1981-1985), the depreciation went on for six years (1986 till Soros cracked the Bank of England in 1992). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 7 minutes ago, Orac said: The drop to 1.12 was only for a minute according to this screenshot from Sky News political editor Faisal Islam: you are correct! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theguyfromanotherforum Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 31 minutes ago, Naam said: there's always a reason for a currency to fall or to appreciate. only ignorants blame it on "scummy manipulation". Of course there is a reason. The reason is to line up someone's pockets. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forex_scandal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 32 minutes ago, theguyfromanotherforum said: Of course there is a reason. The reason is to line up someone's pockets. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forex_scandal everybody likes to line his/her pockets. that's the reality on this planet as well as in the Delta quadrant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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