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For Clinton, election likely to be won or lost in October


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3 minutes ago, keemapoot said:

 

Now that this Trump carnival and diversion is over, America can get back to business. Hillary (and Bill) will lead fine. She just needs to be watched very closely and we all will, I'm sure. I think she knows she can't get away with too much as she is on notice and is under the microscope of accountability for her Presidency.

 

When someone abuses their power and influence as much as this old girl has the only lesson learned is how much they can actually get away with.

 

Corruption prevails another 4 years unabated.

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New poll: Rupert Murdock's Wall St Journal just released a new poll, with the small parties,  Clinton up 11 pts. With just Clinton and Trump  she is up by 14. He is trending down badly. 60% say they disapprove of Trump. 

 

 

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/poll-after-trump-tape-revelation-clinton-s-lead-double-digits-n663691

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The NBC/WSJ survey showed Americans prefer Democrats in control of Congress by a margin of 49% to 42%. The plus-seven margin has consistently been the consensus for the House to flip to D control. Any margin that is less would assure Republicans retain control of the heavily gerrymandered House.

 

Seven percent puts the House in play.

 

We're back again now in this organic election campaign to the 'L' word.

 

The indicator that the 7% Solution is real is that Speaker Ryan yesterday told House Republicans that he no longer will "defend Trump." And that it's all for one, one for all and every one for himself. Ryan said it's fine for House Republicans to quit on Trump to focus on their own campaigns, which have quickly become a campaign for survival. Republican National Committee is throwing almost all its remaining money to defend the House -- and also to try to defend the slender R Senate majority. 

 

It's a tough order for the D party to flip the House in this one single election per se but the objective conditions have manifested. 

 

All hands on deck.

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The GOP tumbles toward anarchy: ‘It’s every person for himself or herself’

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/the-gop-tumbles-toward-anarchy-its-every-person-for-himself-or-herself/2016/10/10/31bc6d24-8f13-11e6-a6a3-d50061aa9fae_story.html

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19 minutes ago, Publicus said:

 

The NBC/WSJ survey showed Americans prefer Democrats in control of Congress by a margin of 49% to 42%. The plus-seven margin has consistently been the consensus for the House to flip to D control. Any margin that is less would assure Republicans retain control of the heavily gerrymandered House.

 

Seven percent puts the House in play.

 

We're back again now in this organic election campaign to the 'L' word.

 

The indicator that the 7% Solution is real is that Speaker Ryan yesterday told House Republicans that he no longer will "defend Trump." And that it's all for one, one for all and every one for himself. Ryan said it's fine for House Republicans to quit on Trump to focus on their own campaigns, which have quickly become a campaign for survival. Republican National Committee is throwing almost all its remaining money to defend the House -- and also to try to defend the slender R Senate majority. 

 

It's a tough order for the D party to flip the House in this one single election per se but the objective conditions have manifested. 

 

All hands on deck.

 

Way to go, Trump.  Only you could do it.

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5 minutes ago, CaptHaddock said:

 

Way to go, Trump.  Only you could do it.

 

Republican Party is his enabler and the right wing nuts are driving it. 

 

Right wing nuts have really roasted their own this time around.

 

The only demographic Trump still has are the evangelical loonies, the tea party reactionaries and certain Thai Visa posters.

 

It has always been true that it is impossible for the fringe marginal extremist far out lunar right to win a national election in the United States. They can win locally here and there in a Congressional seat as the tea party demonstrates. They can win in certain reactionary states here and there, as we see in the Senate, and in a few governorships. However, there has never been any possibility extremist lunatics can win a national election in the United States.  

 

The extreme left has always had an even lesser possibility to win. Bernie Sanders highly successful candidacy in this Potus election cycle portends big change coming soon, however, Bernie is not a socialist by any means or purposes.

 

Socialism is government ownership of the means of transportation, communication, production. Bernie is not this nor is he it. Not remotely.

 

Bernie is instead a classic Western liberal, a classic Commonwealth American in the literal meaning of the term, i.e., the common wealth, and he is in the Democratic party which remains a capitalist party. The salient point about the Democratic Party is that it has always reformed capitalism in ways that are consistent with changing values in respect of the distribution of wealth. Redistribution of wealth. 

 

Most American capitalists themselves tend toward this -- think Warren Buffet, Bill Gates and the like. Conversely, it is the extreme lunatic radical right that wants the USA to return to the 19th century "pure capitalism" and its socio-economic horrors. The lunar right are the gang that are completely out of step and they're going to get really clobbered for it in this election cycle. Thanks for coming forward so strongly over there cause you've required middle America to reevaluate and to choose the future -- again.

 

And thank you Donald. Thank you, thank you, thank you. Your contribution to the progress of America has been mighty -- and lasting. This has become a more defining election cycle than either FDR in 1932 or Reagan in 1980. 

 

One need not be concerned about voter turnout in this election cycle. When there is a big difference choice voters want to register their vote. It's their natural instinct and impulse to do so. Contrast the year 2000 Potus election cycle when so many voters saw so little difference between Bush v Gore to 1980 when Reagan routed Jimmy Carter. And this one far outdoes the 1980 contest.

 

Madam President. She will be up there 20 January with Barack Obama but a few feet away. It's called progress. Neither should one doubt for a moment Wall Street is in for a hard time the next four years. Ask Liz and Bernie about it.  

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Despite the fact that most of the Democrats I talk to are literally sleepwalking and almost anesthetized by MSM and manipulation, there is going to be a lot of them who will look at the choices and choose Trump. They’ll tell everyone else they voted for Hillary.

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14 minutes ago, Publicus said:

 

Republican Party is his enabler and the right wing nuts are driving it. 

 

Right wing nuts have really roasted their own this time around.

 

The only demographic Trump still has are the evangelical loonies, the tea party reactionaries and certain Thai Visa posters.

 

It has always been true that it is impossible for the fringe marginal extremist far out lunar right to win a national election in the United States. They can win locally here and there in a Congressional seat as the tea party demonstrates. They can win in certain reactionary states here and there, as we see in the Senate, and in a few governorships. However, there has never been any possibility extremist lunatics can win a national election in the United States.  

 

The extreme left has always had an even lesser possibility to win. Bernie Sanders highly successful candidacy in this Potus election cycle portends big change coming soon, however, Bernie is not a socialist by any means or purposes.

 

Socialism is government ownership of the means of transportation, communication, production. Bernie is not this nor is he it. Not remotely.

 

Bernie is instead a classic Western liberal, a classic Commonwealth American in the literal meaning of the term, i.e., the common wealth, and he is in the Democratic party which remains a capitalist party. The salient point about the Democratic Party is that it has always reformed capitalism in ways that are consistent with changing values in respect of the distribution of wealth. Redistribution of wealth. 

 

Most American capitalists themselves tend toward this -- think Warren Buffet, Bill Gates and the like. Conversely, it is the extreme lunatic radical right that wants the USA to return to the 19th century "pure capitalism" and its socio-economic horrors. The lunar right are the gang that are completely out of step and they're going to get really clobbered for it in this election cycle. Thanks for coming forward so strongly over there cause you've required middle America to reevaluate and to choose the future -- again.

 

And thank you Donald. Thank you, thank you, thank you. Your contribution to the progress of America has been mighty -- and lasting. This has become a more defining election cycle than either FDR in 1932 or Reagan in 1980. 

 

One need not be concerned about voter turnout in this election cycle. When there is a big difference choice voters want to register their vote. It's their natural instinct and impulse to do so. Contrast the year 2000 Potus election cycle when so many voters saw so little difference between Bush v Gore to 1980 when Reagan routed Jimmy Carter. And this one far outdoes the 1980 contest.

 

Madam President. She will be up there 20 January with Barack Obama but a few feet away. It's called progress. Neither should one doubt for a moment Wall Street is in for a hard time the next four years. Ask Liz and Bernie about it.  

 

All well and good, but don't think that the Republicans or the Trump supporters are going to go away.  Big Money never quits.  Their prevailing strategy of suckering the plebs into voting for their guy whose policies, tax policy in particular, then screw them for the benefit of the rich, has broken down in this election, but that doesn't mean they can't fix it.  They play the long game such as creating right-wing talk radio and target state houses to implement gerrymandering.

 

A good example is the conduct of war capitalism.  When we were opposing the Vietnam War is such great numbers, we naively believed that we had broken the war machine by exposing it.  But of course the war constituency calmly figured out that the only real problem was the draft and the American casualties.  So, they came back with saturation bombing and eventually drone warfare.  Problem solved.  Similarly, the response to the successful civil rights movement of the 60's was the war on drugs to enable black incarceration and now voter suppression.  The right is nothing if not resilient.

 

As for true socialism, I would be more than happy to settle for social democracy, Scandinavian-style.  Getting the Gini coefficient down into the 20's would be enough.   It's wildly unrealistic to expect revolution in America.  The last opportunity for real reform, the financial crisis of 2008, passed by without substantive change.

 

So this election is a misstep.  Even as we speak vested interests are pondering just how to fix that for next time.

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Despite the fact that most of the Democrats I talk to are literally sleepwalking and almost anesthetized by MSM and manipulation, there is going to be a lot of them who will look at the choices and choose Trump. They’ll tell everyone else they voted for Hillary.

You are absolutely deluded - and of course one of the primary reasons Clinton is doing so well is that thinking people are terrified by the levels of dangerous delusion on the fringe right.

Every time some nut job posts 'crooked Hillary' or some other rote-meme, another vote goes her way. You people really are your own worst enemies.

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Hillary Clinton has opened an 11 point lead over Donald Trump in the first national poll taken after release on Friday of a tape in which the Republican nominee joked in obscene terms about his sexually aggressive behavior toward women. The NBC News/Wall Street Journal shows that troubles in the Trump campaign are taking their toll on fortunes of Republicans in races for Congress

-----------------------------------------------------------------

WSJ as you know is owned by Murdoch, the owner of FOX news, so not easy to whimper about liberal polls

The real issue is doing the Full Metal Limbaugh/Breitbart shtick going to appeal to anyone who is not committed, who is not all in the Hannity Fox wavelegth? The faithful loved it, take a look at the excited yammering here! But are uncommitted, unaligned people going to vote for Trump because of these antics Or will or the weekends other events, Trumps grabbing P tapes. The Howard Stern, Playboy and Apprentice clips due to be broadcast this week  going to bury him?!

 

First polls indicate he is losing more uncommitteds,  but only time will tell .....  

 

And  might be a more important local story you all might be concerned about,  that is if you are living here.

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6 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

You mean like drastically lowering taxes on the super-rich and creating new tax loopholes for real estate developers? And deregulating hedge funds and their like?

 

Where, anywhere, is this written?

 

Clinton wants to keep the tax rate exactly the same for 90% of americans, and tax MORE on the wealthy and business

 

Trump wants to lower taxes for everyone, and reduce bureaucracy in business.

 

You are lying

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51 minutes ago, CaptHaddock said:

 

All well and good, but don't think that the Republicans or the Trump supporters are going to go away.  Big Money never quits.  Their prevailing strategy of suckering the plebs into voting for their guy whose policies, tax policy in particular, then screw them for the benefit of the rich, has broken down in this election, but that doesn't mean they can't fix it.  They play the long game such as creating right-wing talk radio and target state houses to implement gerrymandering.

 

A good example is the conduct of war capitalism.  When we were opposing the Vietnam War is such great numbers, we naively believed that we had broken the war machine by exposing it.  But of course the war constituency calmly figured out that the only real problem was the draft and the American casualties.  So, they came back with saturation bombing and eventually drone warfare.  Problem solved.  Similarly, the response to the successful civil rights movement of the 60's was the war on drugs to enable black incarceration and now voter suppression.  The right is nothing if not resilient.

 

As for true socialism, I would be more than happy to settle for social democracy, Scandinavian-style.  Getting the Gini coefficient down into the 20's would be enough.   It's wildly unrealistic to expect revolution in America.  The last opportunity for real reform, the financial crisis of 2008, passed by without substantive change.

 

So this election is a misstep.  Even as we speak vested interests are pondering just how to fix that for next time.

 

Points well taken (per usual) especially about Vietnam war, the war machine in general and long term, the 'war on drugs', and the Gini coefficient in particular which this poster will leave to Sens. Warren and Sanders in the coming D controlled Congress and HRC in the Oval Office.

 

Still, as we see in this Potus election cycle, the 'vested interests' first challenge is to assert this election is in fact a 'misstep'. To accomplish this they'll have to do something no element of American society or political leadership has been able to accomplish, i.e., to bring the extremist right under effective control. 

 

This election is shaping up as a KO of the lunar right. However, they never go away. Their cause is holy and sacred so they wage eternal struggle. Fiercely. If the vested interests don't excise the radical lunatic right, or at the least neutralise them, then this election phenomenon will become a routine event. Yes, as such it would be -- as one should expect -- a routine rout. But those who are 'vested' can't afford much more of this either.

 

I'm anyway afraid it is true that, as was the case when the USA was founded 240 years ago, it is overall a world that remains hostile to democracy, liberalism, the U.S. Constitution, and that the USA needs to defend itself. 

 

(The ME for instance is exactly where we want it to be. Imagine if instead Assad had an effective state under him with Putin as their guest host, and if ISIS had its own effective state in one place or another over there. And if Gaddafi were still there in control of a state. And if we weren't sitting on Netanyahu. And if the ayatollahs really thought they could go nuclear without consequence. The more immediate challenge however is not Putin or so much militarily as it is the EU, which was from the outset and always much more the work of the US foreign policy elites than it ever was a European endeavor. The Europeans have simply run with it -- and being the eternal numbnuts that the Europeans are, they've mucked it up badly. This is where a Potus Clinton will knock some heads together, cause without EU the risk of (conventional) war with Russia in Europe increases exponentially.) 

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I don't agree with the title of this thread.  Clinton was positioned to win comfortably, regardless of what happens in October.   It just so happens, Americans are getting better acquainted with Trump, so his numbers are hemorrhaging.  With or without October surprises Clinton is a much better candidate.  Note: there will doubtless be more revelations about Trump's gutter mind/behavior.  He's slapped many thousands of gag orders on people he's interacted with, but he can't gag all the women he's abused or workers he's stiffed.  Even with gag orders, some individuals may have the courage to speak out (Marla, are you listening?).  Message to Trump:   there's still more shit to hit the fan.

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16 minutes ago, Publicus said:

 

Points well taken (per usual) especially about Vietnam war, the war machine in general and long term, the 'war on drugs', and the Gini coefficient in particular which this poster will leave to Sens. Warren and Sanders in the coming D controlled Congress and HRC in the Oval Office.

 

Still, as we see in this Potus election cycle, the 'vested interests' first challenge is to assert this election is in fact a 'misstep'. To accomplish this they'll have to do something no element of American society or political leadership has been able to accomplish, i.e., to bring the extremist right under effective control. 

 

This election is shaping up as a KO of the lunar right. However, they never go away. Their cause is holy and sacred so they wage eternal struggle. Fiercely. If the vested interests don't excise the radical lunatic right, or at the least neutralise them, then this election phenomenon will become a routine event. Yes, as such it would be -- as one should expect -- a routine rout. But those who are 'vested' can't afford much more of this either.

 

I'm anyway afraid it is true that, as was the case when the USA was founded 240 years ago, it is overall a world that remains hostile to democracy, liberalism, the U.S. Constitution, and that the USA needs to defend itself. 

 

(The ME for instance is exactly where we want it to be. Imagine if instead Assad had an effective state under him with Putin as their guest host, and if ISIS had its own effective state in one place or another over there. And if Gaddafi were still there in control of a state. And if we weren't sitting on Netanyahu. And if the ayatollahs really thought they could go nuclear without consequence. The more immediate challenge however is not Putin or so much militarily as it is the EU, which was from the outset and always much more the work of the US foreign policy elites than it ever was a European endeavor. The Europeans have simply run with it -- and being the eternal numbnuts that the Europeans are, they've mucked it up badly. This is where a Potus Clinton will knock some heads together, cause without EU the risk of (conventional) war with Russia in Europe increases exponentially.) 

 

You are an optimist, but I am not.  This election is not a rout, not a wave.  HRC's lead has been the most consistent since Eisenhower, but small.  This is not a 49 state win like 1984 or 1972 by a long shot.  What if the next Trump is a lot smarter than the Donald or if, after the next financial crisis, the election comes at a time when unemployment is not 5%, but, say, 17%.  These people aren't going anywhere.

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Just now, CaptHaddock said:

 

You are an optimist, but I am not.  This election is not a rout, not a wave.  HRC's lead has been the most consistent since Eisenhower, but small.  This is not a 49 state win like 1984 or 1972 by a long shot.  What if the next Trump is a lot smarter than the Donald or if, after the next financial crisis, the election comes at a time when unemployment is not 5%, but, say, 17%.  These people aren't going anywhere.

 

That's what I said.

 

The lunar right is persistent, fierce, unrelenting, unyielding. To the extent the 'vested interests' cannot contain or limit the radical reactionary racist etc right, the society and elections will remain tumultuous.

 

And no one is saying this election will be a 49-stater. No one. 

 

It will however be decisive, a rout. I've always said Trump will win between 15-19 states (almost all of 'em rural, in the Mississipi river valley and west of it in the Great Plains, and with few Electoral College votes). However, Trump will not get 40% of the popular vote nor will he get anywhere near even 200 Electoral College votes with 270 required to win. Not even close to 200 ECVs.

 

Yes, I'm an optimist and you're a pessimist so our minds and posts do not always connect. Hence this more detailed elaboration of my position in this election cycle.

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4 hours ago, stander said:

Trump is a smart loyal winner who loves his country, he will fight to save it from corruption and he has the spine to do the job properly, lead, not concede.

Funny choice to fight corruption when he's so corrupt and lies so much himself. 

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5 hours ago, Publicus said:

 

That's what I said.

 

The lunar right is persistent, fierce, unrelenting, unyielding. To the extent the 'vested interests' cannot contain or limit the radical reactionary racist etc right, the society and elections will remain tumultuous.

 

And no one is saying this election will be a 49-stater. No one. 

 

It will however be decisive, a rout. I've always said Trump will win between 15-19 states (almost all of 'em rural, in the Mississipi river valley and west of it in the Great Plains, and with few Electoral College votes). However, Trump will not get 40% of the popular vote nor will he get anywhere near even 200 Electoral College votes with 270 required to win. Not even close to 200 ECVs.

 

Yes, I'm an optimist and you're a pessimist so our minds and posts do not always connect. Hence this more detailed elaboration of my position in this election cycle.

 

Frank Bruni in the NYT had piece a few days ago on the very subject of the hard days ahead for Hillary after she wins.

 

Hillary Clinton's Poisoned Prize

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/09/opinion/sunday/hillary-clintons-poisoned-prize.html?ref=international

TH 

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Pulitzer Prize winning Oxford & Princeton PhD educated Conservative political commentator & Fox News guest, George Will, is already writing the obituary for the GOP this election. and calling Trump the GOP's chemotherapy, nauseating, but necessary for cleansing the GOP.

 

Quote

...Third, by persevering through Nov. 8 he can simplify the GOP’s quadrennial exercise of writing its post-campaign autopsy, which this year can be published Nov. 9 in one sentence: “Perhaps it is imprudent to nominate a venomous charlatan.” Fourth, Trump is the GOP’s chemotherapy, a nauseating but, if carried through to completion, perhaps a curative experience.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/donald-trumps-vile-candidacy-is-chemotherapy-for-the-gop/2016/10/10/73e40f30-8f05-11e6-9c85-ac42097b8cc0_story.html?utm_term=.349cb13b9de1

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7 hours ago, stander said:

Despite the fact that most of the Democrats I talk to are literally sleepwalking and almost anesthetized by MSM and manipulation, there is going to be a lot of them who will look at the choices and choose Trump. They’ll tell everyone else they voted for Hillary.

Of course they will. For exactly the same reason that wishes are fishes and we'll all be eating seafood dinners every night for the rest of our lives.

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20 hours ago, Publicus said:

 

That's what I said.

 

The lunar right is persistent, fierce, unrelenting, unyielding. To the extent the 'vested interests' cannot contain or limit the radical reactionary racist etc right, the society and elections will remain tumultuous.

 

And no one is saying this election will be a 49-stater. No one. 

 

It will however be decisive, a rout. I've always said Trump will win between 15-19 states (almost all of 'em rural, in the Mississipi river valley and west of it in the Great Plains, and with few Electoral College votes). However, Trump will not get 40% of the popular vote nor will he get anywhere near even 200 Electoral College votes with 270 required to win. Not even close to 200 ECVs.

 

Yes, I'm an optimist and you're a pessimist so our minds and posts do not always connect. Hence this more detailed elaboration of my position in this election cycle.

 

I guess a simple way to state it, but one that shows just how many of these low quality voters there are in the Republican party now is this piece from Vox on the civil war now in the GOP. Up to 3/4's of Republicans are now these Trumpsters, but they only make up 1/3 of the entire nation of voters. That's not a formula that can win a general election, but it is sizable and scary in its own right. It's why, the writer reasons, there has never been an outright call for Trump to be expelled, either at the Convention, or now after all the dirt has been exposed. In the days when the GOP was indeed a grand old party, I would guess that the inverse might have been true: 3/4's of Republicans were informed and high quality. Those were the good old days.

 

Quote

That’s the problem for these Republicans. Trump has a hard core of support that now makes up about two-thirds to three-quarters of the Republican electorate — but only one-third of the general electorate. So most of the Republican Party’s most loyal base voters (and a clear majority of its primary voters) do not look kindly on party elites who try to throw Trump under the bus.

 

http://www.vox.com/2016/10/10/13227220/trump-republican-party-civil-war

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I don't believe the country can last another 4 years with the same corrupt establishment in office and Hillary will be business as usual. It sickens me to say this but after hearing what Hillary said to wall street behind closed doors I don't believe one word coming out of her mouth and would vote for Trump before her. Being a Bernie supporter and feeling left down by the entire process I will not be voting this election. I can't bring myself to vote for the major choices and third parties just are not strong enough to win. Sad sad state of affairs our country is in !

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15 hours ago, thaihome said:

 

Frank Bruni in the NYT had piece a few days ago on the very subject of the hard days ahead for Hillary after she wins.

 

Hillary Clinton's Poisoned Prize

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/09/opinion/sunday/hillary-clintons-poisoned-prize.html?ref=international

TH 

 

Nothing out of the ordinary there. Quite a pedestrian column in fact.

 

Institutionally congress and the presidency are antagonists and they also complement one another. They clash or they kiss so there's nothing new to see here.

 

Trump -- after HRC presumably becomes Potus -- is a spent force. Trump is a spent force already. Yes, Trump and Bannon etc will have their own network but what could be worse than Faux...I guess we'll find out if anything could be worse than Faux. (I suspect it will be worse than Faux with all the sexual nonsense as a new tawdry dimension to rightwhinge politics.) Bring that on too thx.

 

The Sanders-Warren wing of the Democratic Party is but another wing of a major party for which there is plentiful precedent to accommodate. HRC can work with anyone to include Bernie and Senator Liz.

 

The American people? Almost half of 'em hate HRC while the definite majority reject Donald Trump and increasingly dismiss the Republican Party and the wingnuts that control and drive it. People opposing Potus and people supporting Potus is nothing new.

 

What will be new is that the former First Lady will be the new commander in chief. The generals will salute her the same as they saluted Abraham Lincoln. And the rightwhinge will continue to beef and to huff and puff.

 

So the guy's column gets the broken poison pen prize if anything.

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10 minutes ago, ttthailand said:

I don't believe the country can last another 4 years with the same corrupt establishment in office and Hillary will be business as usual. It sickens me to say this but after hearing what Hillary said to wall street behind closed doors I don't believe one word coming out of her mouth and would vote for Trump before her. Being a Bernie supporter and feeling left down by the entire process I will not be voting this election. I can't bring myself to vote for the major choices and third parties just are not strong enough to win. Sad sad state of affairs our country is in !

What state are you not voting in? :stoner:

Clinton lies a LOT less than trump, but it's clear you don't get that, so ... whatever, dude. To me a "Bernie supporter" that would do anything to help trump be president is beyond the pale of RIDICULOUSNESS. Of course, if you're from California, makes no difference!

 

 

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On 10/10/2016 at 1:25 AM, 212Roger said:

Attention all Thai Visa Forum members!  If Hillary Clinton becomes the next U.S. President, I will promise to discontinue posts and no longer comment on this web site ever again!  I doubt if any, nary a one, Hillary supporter will match my promise.  Come on keyboard warriors.  Put your beliefs/wisdom on the line.  You have my word; any challengers?  

Well, you've just decided my vote for me 

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