GBP Pound Continues to Take a Pounding

[DUS]

In the interview he said "1 USD to the pound will be the new normal within the next 3-4 years" (regardless of Scotland).

 

But yes, as you say, EVERY investor has a vested interest....of course......

[chiang mai]

If indeed the new norm is GBP on par with USD, expect the immigrant levels in the UK to rise as the well heeled take advantage of a cheap housing market.

[DUS]

6 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

If indeed the new norm is GBP on par with USD, expect the immigrant levels in the UK to rise as the well heeled take advantage of a cheap housing market.

 

Well, imho there´d be nothing cheap about the UK housing market even if prices were 20% lower than today.... but that´s a completely different topic .... 1:1 USD/GBP? Well, who knows!? It´s certainly heading in that direction at the moment.... I hope we won´t go that low as it would quite dramatically impact my UK savings....

[chiang mai]

3 minutes ago, DUS said:

 

Well, imho there´d be nothing cheap about the UK housing market even if prices were 20% lower than today.... but that´s a completely different topic .... 1:1 USD/GBP? Well, who knows!? It´s certainly heading in that direction at the moment.... I hope we won´t go that low as it would quite dramatically impact my UK savings....

 

I don't mean to imply that the UK housing market is cheap, not by any means. It's just that at a ratio of 1:1, USD/GBP, it will represent a 20% discount or greater to foreign buyers which will make it very very attractive to them.

[edwinchester]

People like Jim Rogers were predicting $20 oil and Gold at $1000 an ounce not so long ago. They have their own agenda, it's self serving and bears little relation to reality most of the time.

[OJAS]

On 10/17/2016 at 9:16 AM, Deepinthailand said:

Diffrent takes from diffrent people investor Jim Rogers has probably got a vested intrests in seeing the pound slide so he will say anything to spread the gloom but it's irrelevant as Scotland will not leave the UK. 

 

But I do shudder to think what Rogers might suggest if he decided to throw NI and London exits into the mix as well (no matter how even more unlikely these would be than Scotland). GBP parity with the THB, maybe??

[Deepinthailand]

32 minutes ago, OJAS said:

 

But I do shudder to think what Rogers might suggest if he decided to throw NI and London exits into the mix as well (no matter how even more unlikely these would be than Scotland). GBP parity with the THB, maybe??

Totally irrelevant London leave Yeh right (I'm watching the punk pigs flying past as I type). As for NI who cares in my opinion  should have been ditched years ago. As for Scotland they will never leave only the stupid scots witch wants that.

[Banana7]

GBP at 42.8b today at Super rich in BKK, SCB is 41.945b. No end in sight for the slide.

 

[Asiantravel]

On ‎11‎/‎10‎/‎2016 at 5:43 PM, chilli42 said:

 

 

OK lets see come December whose guess was better.  Though if they can convince themselves that the recent jobs report was good they will believe anything. 

 

 

Paul Volcker Explains Why The Fed Can't Raise Rates

( ( American economist and Chairman of the Federal Reserve under Presidents Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan  )

 

Volcker op-ed kicks in, and explains why the Fed is stuck and will find it next to impossible to hike rates:

 

Quote

Our current debt may be manageable at a time of unprecedentedly low interest rates. But if we let our debt grow, and interest rates normalize, the interest burden alone would choke our budget and squeeze out other essential spending. There would be no room for the infrastructure programs and the defense rebuilding that today have wide support.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/22/opinion/ignoring-the-debt-problem.html?_r=1

[Ricardo]

I wonder whether the same might be true, for the UK, where the deficit is still high & no sign of it being balanced any time soon ?

 

Not good news for UK-savers.

[SheungWan]

There are 2 headwinds for sterling: first, the internal split in the Conservative Party between hard and soft brexit. secondly, whether Carney renews his position into a second term. the first is a running sore that doesn't go away. Re the second, markets will take a dim view of sterling if Carney walks.

[HauptmannUK]

On 17/10/2016 at 3:42 AM, chiang mai said:

 

I don't mean to imply that the UK housing market is cheap, not by any means. It's just that at a ratio of 1:1, USD/GBP, it will represent a 20% discount or greater to foreign buyers which will make it very very attractive to them.

I spend a lot of time in China and my Chinese colleagues all look at UK house prices on Rightmove.co.uk

The usual way to purchase is through a son/daughter or other young relative who is going to study in the UK. They are not only buying in London, but other UK cities too.  Housing in China is expensive - a decent small apartment in a reasonable size Chine city can easily cost £200k-400k (Beijing and Shanghai more). A house in the UK is seen as a good investment. I predict rising house prices for the foreseeable future - driven by foreign buyers.

Edited October 26, 2016 by HauptmannUK

[SheungWan]

On 23/10/2016 at 8:17 AM, Banana7 said:

GBP at 42.8b today at Super rich in BKK, SCB is 41.945b. No end in sight for the slide.

 

 

Rather pausing for breath....

[wordchild]

Pound seems to have steadied a bit around here and has actually firmed up a little since the US Presidential election result. As I write, 1.256 v USD up from the lows of 1.218 at the end of Oct, and  against the TB 44.38 up from 42.6 at the end of Oct.

FWIW I can see reasons why sterling might just stay a bit firmer for a while;  the currency weakness post Brexit should start to show some positive economic benefits and, post the US election, the UK's  position in the world doesn't seem quite  so isolated. 

The Uk no longer looks like the dumbest guy in the room! 

Edited November 11, 2016 by wordchild

[Banana7]

US is UK's biggest trading partner, just over $80 billion sold to USA, many high-end cars etc. Trump is looking to bring manufacturing jobs into USA so maybe of that UK manufacturing increase may not materialize. Also, it would take time, maybe 1 or 2 years, for manufacturers to return to UK. Trump will also create millions of jobs in USA as infrastructure projects commence and that will improve the US economy substantially.

[nausea]

It's psychological as always, BREXIT is on the backburner, people now have bigger things to worry about..

[Banana7]

The pound has fallen almost 20 per cent against the dollar and nearly 14 per cent against the euro since the vote. By 1400 GMT on Monday 16 January 2017, it was down almost 1 per cent at $1.2060 and 0.6 per cent at 87.80 pence per euro.

 

At Vasu  and Siam exchange in BKK, 42.50b for GBP 50's. Looks like GBP is in for another dive.

 

[Deepinthailand]

Short tern dive as hard Brexit is announced once things are out in the open re brexit and the fact that it's all out not partial the pound as usual will rally in the coming weeks back to its new norm for now 44 to 45 bht to pound. Over a few years period it will rise back up to nearer 50.

[YeahSiam]

2 hours ago, Deepinthailand said:

Short tern dive as hard Brexit is announced once things are out in the open re brexit and the fact that it's all out not partial the pound as usual will rally in the coming weeks back to its new norm for now 44 to 45 bht to pound. Over a few years period it will rise back up to nearer 50.

 

What is that based on? Hopium??

 

It's only once inflation really gets into its stride that the real value of sterling will become apparent, much to the chagrin of Thailand-based Brexpats.

The Bank of England will be forced to make a stark choice; do nothing and let the pound dive or hike interest rates, blowing up the ridiculous UK property/debt bubble.

The only things that could put that choice off is a similarly collapsing USD and EUR.

The race to the bottom is far, far from over.

Thank heaven for gold and silver.

[daveAustin]

On 10/13/2016 at 1:39 PM, partington said:

I'm not sure why everyone from the UK thinks UK politicians are better, wiser and more able than  say, German ones.

 

I think a case could be made that over the last 50 years Germany has become richer, more influential, more socially egalitarian, has a better health and education system than the UK, and has coped with a huge financial problem (re-unification) that the UK never had to cope with, and still come out ahead.

 

I dunno, the East is generally still down at heel so I hear. They had a clean slate to rebuild after being flattened in WWII and vast amounts of money/man power from the Allied countries to essentially counter a burgeoning Russia/cold war. They are industrious, yes, but didn't do it all themselves. Deregulation and open free trade made a massive difference, while Britain remained over-regulated and rationed carried on from the war partly under the French bloke that drew up the EEC. Yuck!

[daveAustin]

On 10/17/2016 at 9:12 AM, DUS said:

Investor Jim Rogers says there are "serious problems facing the UK" and that the pound's value will "certainly go under one dollar" if Scotland leaves the UK.

He told the BBC's Mark Mardell, "You've got a lot of debt, you've got a serious balance of trade problem which shows no signs of being corrected. I don't see anything to make sterling go up."

 

Jim who? If Scotland ever left the UK, suggesting that the pound would nosedive is laughable --  what, because of the vast amounts of wealth that Scotland brings to the union would be lost? lol. If anything there would be a surge while the UK gets the monkey of its back.

[Naam]

4 hours ago, YeahSiam said:

Thank heaven for gold and silver.

yeah right! investors always thank heaven when they incur big losses

 

black = gold, blue = silver.

 

[YeahSiam]

Just now, Naam said:

yeah right! investors always thank heaven when they incur big losses

 

black = gold, blue = silver.

 

 

I bought both in 2007.

 

It's done exactly what it said on the tin.

If I'd kept sterling, I'd be crying right about now.

Instead, I'm laughing.

 

Graphs and charts mean nothing - all depends when you buy and when you sell

[SheungWan]

7 hours ago, Deepinthailand said:

Short tern dive as hard Brexit is announced once things are out in the open re brexit and the fact that it's all out not partial the pound as usual will rally in the coming weeks back to its new norm for now 44 to 45 bht to pound. Over a few years period it will rise back up to nearer 50.

 

I am so glad you told us that GBPTHB is going back up towards 50. Until today I was beside myself with worry, but its alright now.

[Deepinthailand]

2 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

 

I am so glad you told us that GBPTHB is going back up towards 50. Until today I was beside myself with worry, but its alright now.

Glad to be of service, although I would read my post again correctly about time scales. Before you try to post sarcastic coments and make yourself look a little silly.?

[SheungWan]

1 minute ago, Deepinthailand said:

Glad to be of service, although I would read my post again correctly about time scales. Before you try to post sarcastic coments and make yourself look a little silly.?

 

So sorry that I didn't reference the 'few years' bit. There is certainly a chance I might have expired  before we get back to 50 baht  but living in hope is the main thing.

[Deepinthailand]

Just now, SheungWan said:

 

So sorry that I didn't reference the 'few years' bit. There is certainly a chance I might have expired  before we get back to 50 baht  but living in hope is the main thing.

Quite possibly. But it won't matter then will it.

[jpinx]

9 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

 

So sorry that I didn't reference the 'few years' bit. There is certainly a chance I might have expired  before we get back to 50 baht  but living in hope is the main thing.

You're usually glued to the FX rates - what did it do during TM's speech?  ...and what does that tell you?

[SheungWan]

19 minutes ago, jpinx said:

You're usually glued to the FX rates - what did it do during TM's speech?  ...and what does that tell you?

 

I so have to do all the heavy lifting for you guys.  Sterling's bounce tells us that the markets are mightily relieved that TM appears to have abandoned the Government's anti-parliamentary stance ahead of the Supreme Court decision. Also  a clear(ish) stance moving forwards. Previously trying to be enigmatic wasn't helping at all. Actually a couple of commentators on Bloomberg were calling sterling oversold ahead of the announcements but that still doesn't detract from a 2+% bounce.

[chiang mai]

3 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

 

I so have to do all the heavy lifting for you guys.  Sterling's bounce tells us that the markets are mightily relieved that TM appears to have abandoned the Government's anti-parliamentary stance ahead of the Supreme Court decision. Also  a clear(ish) stance moving forwards. Previously trying to be enigmatic wasn't helping at all. Actually a couple of commentators on Bloomberg were calling sterling oversold ahead of the announcements but that still doesn't detract from a 2+% bounce.

 

...and much of the light lifting also!

 

Perhaps also worth pointing out that some of the bounce resulted from a drop in the Dollar Index (down 1% on the day).

Edited January 17, 2017 by chiang mai