Central bank admits crackdown on zero-dollar package tours has greater impacts than earlier projected

[Gerard052]

What makes me laugh is, they expect 34m + tourists this year.  80% are freakin Chinese, they don't spend any money, they are ten sipping on a beer.  What Thailand needs is the quality not the quantity.  They always talk about how many tourists come to Thailand but they never talked about how much money it brings to the economy and that is the most important part.  Just a thought.

[baboon]

59 minutes ago, madmitch said:

So what's happened to all the independent Chinese tourists that would replace the package tourists? Not to forget the visa free ones from Bhutan, San Marino and the like.

 

One positive from this article: a Government department has actually admitted they may have screwed up!

"So what's happened to all the independent Chinese tourists that would replace the package tourists?"

 

I have no idea, but they certainly weren't at either Suvarnabhumi or Don Mueang yesterday. Suvarnabhumi was ticking over, but Don Mueang was a far cry from the scrum it usually is when I pass through...

[Thaddeus]

3 hours ago, NongKhaiKid said:

Yes, another carefully thought through plan with all possible eventualities considered.

Shoot first, ask questions later, consequences don't matter as the numbers will be made up anyway.

Never changes and never will, not while the BS has a big  "It's true 'cos I said so and I'm Thai" sticker on it, and all the sheep fall in line.

[upena]

The Thai tourism sector, based on the bogus numbers from TAT and MOTS, is around 21% of GDP. Problem is that these numbers are impossible to know.

[lvr181]

3 hours ago, NongKhaiKid said:

Yes, another carefully thought through plan with all possible eventualities considered.

Love your sense of humour!

[Srikcir]

1 hour ago, digibum said:

Tourism is currently (or it was the last time I saw the numbers) making up about 20% of GDP

I have never seen such a statistic. Can you provide a reference or link?

 

The generally cited GDP revenue distribution has been from exports (70%), tourism (10-11%) and domestic consumption by Thai private enterprise and government spending (20%).

 

Perhaps what you are referring to is that tourism contributes 20% of GDP growth. Export growth has been contracting since 2015 while tourism and government spending have been increasing as the main contributors to GDP growth, albeit nominal in terms of total GDP growth.

[dcsw53]

This is even more worrying better news since the first week of October is Chinese Autumn festival and Thailand should be have been mobbed with Chinese.

[mike324]

Zero dollar tours are not good for the country, period. Wonder why people are bashing the government, they are just reporting that it has a bigger impact than they expected. Which means zero dollar tour industry is bigger than they expected.

[somchai jones]

One thing is for sure.......over the long term the tourism stats will continue to grow despite 'short term blips'.........another thing is for sure........the usual suspects on Thai Visa will continue to feel glib satisfaction when the figures are down and indignant bitterness when the figures are up.......oh well, I'm off to feed the cats............. 

[joebrown]

I'm was shocked to read that of all the weekly 'crackdowns' one has actually had some effect. Then the 'same old, same old' kicked in when I read it had the wrong effect. Let's see what spin the TAT lady puts on this in her next announcement! 

[Jimbo2014]

The Prawn industry is sure to suffer the worst 

 

[Psimbo]

Interesting that ll the Thaigeezers who lambasted this sort of tourism are now giving it 'I told you so'!

 

I guess all the slavering on here about it putting no money into the local economy was WRONG!!!!!

[Psimbo]

5 minutes ago, somchai jones said:

One thing is for sure.......over the long term the tourism stats will continue to grow despite 'short term blips'.........another thing is for sure........the usual suspects on Thai Visa will continue to feel glib satisfaction when the figures are down and indignant bitterness when the figures are up.......oh well, I'm off to feed the cats............. 

I read recently (can't be bothered to find the link) that those who predict this sort of thing reckoned the Chinese market would plateau this year anyway.

 

I concur with the rest of your statement.

[ICECOOL]

Surely less paying tourists is better than more zero dollar tourists 

[Jimbo2014]

2 minutes ago, Psimbo said:

I read recently (can't be bothered to find the link) that those who predict this sort of thing reckoned the Chinese market would plateau this year anyway.

 

I concur with the rest of your statement.

 

I think long term with the growth of the middle class in China and India and potential markets in the 100s of millions (for middle class) both Cambodia and Thailand are set for the future, even with an ageing population in both Thailand and China. There may be bumps and blips on the way - but the long term future is pretty well taken care of provided Thailand cleans up its act and offers a quality tourist experience for Chinese and Indians (admittedly a big if).

[JSixpack]

3 hours ago, ezzra said:

 

So dose than mean that without monkey business in the tourism industry and

engaging in shonky tactics to bring in and profit from million of tourists

Thai tourism can survive?....

 

No, we all know that it can't possibly survive. So this is IT,  just as predicted more than two years ago in response to a similar observation and showed the future:

 

[NanLaew]

21 minutes ago, dcsw53 said:

This is even more worrying better news since the first week of October is Chinese Autumn festival and Thailand should be have been mobbed with Chinese.

By October, they had already killed the golden goose and the Chinese all went to Vietnam instead. There does seem to be a bit of a resurgence in buses around Pattaya at the usual locales and times so they are coming back. Maybe it will be the fatted calf  that gets buggered this time?

[Anthony5]

1 minute ago, NanLaew said:

By October, they had already killed the golden goose and the Chinese all went to Vietnam instead. There does seem to be a bit of a resurgence in buses around Pattaya at the usual locales and times so they are coming back. Maybe it will be the fatted calf  that gets buggered this time?

 

There is always an increase in buses at the end of the year, but I notice that the majority of the buses that were on the road today cater to Korean and Taiwanese tourists.

 

I also noticed that smaller buses are  used and still most of them this morning had only half of the seats occupied.

[newnative]

Hmm.  They might be coming to the realization that EVERY tourist contributes to the economy and there's no such thing as a 'zero dollar tourist'.  Some contribute more, but all contribute some--and it all helps, especially with small businesses.  The same goes for expats living in Thailand.  Every month we pump our retirement pensions into the Thai economy in big ways and small--it all adds up and it's ALL important.

[NanLaew]

4 minutes ago, Anthony5 said:

 

There is always an increase in buses at the end of the year, but I notice that the majority of the buses that were on the road today cater to Korean and Taiwanese tourists.

 

I also noticed that smaller buses are  used and still most of them this morning had only half of the seats occupied.

 

They all look the same to me.

[Eric Loh]

2 hours ago, steveyinasia said:

If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.

 

http://www.china.org.cn/world/Off_the_Wire/2016-09/03/content_39227155.htm

 

You dont have that privilege to plan if the General PM gave his order pledging to rid zero package tour. What he say, goes and none in his cabinet or NLA will dare to defy or delay his order. 

[Anthony5]

Just now, NanLaew said:

 

They all look the same to me.

 

I have that with Asians, but not with buses, I can fairly well distinguish between buses

 

What I wanted to say that one of the bus companies, coincidental the one that has the most buses on the road in Pattaya these days, caters to Korean tourists.

 

It's the one that has the blue, purple and pink lines on the side of the bus, and have their private NGV station on road #36

[NanLaew]

Just now, Anthony5 said:

 

I have that with Asians, but not with buses, I can fairly well distinguish between buses

 

What I wanted to say that one of the bus companies, coincidental the one that has the most buses on the road in Pattaya these days, caters to Korean tourists.

 

It's the one that has the blue, purple and pink lines on the side of the bus, and have their private NGV station on road #36

 

Ah OK, I was wondering about those ones as there's dozens of them now. Live and learn, cheers!

[Grubster]

1 hour ago, Pib said:

And when looking at about webpage that Anthony5 gave when looking from 1998 to mid 2016 current tourist arrivals are still trending upward with the very typical sawtooth pattern...up a little, down a little....but over the long term still trending upward.  Short term variations are all part of the long term game.

 

This is only a map of history, with the Chinese influx producing the numbers in recent years, your looking at the top of that mountain on Jan. 2016, unless they shore it up with another wave of non spending tourists sipping tea.

[Songlaw]

4 hours ago, NongKhaiKid said:

Yes, another carefully thought through plan with all possible eventualities considered.

 

For a land where 'plans' are the name given to whatever coalesces from the snowball effect of unintended consequences from other 'spurts of ingenuity' past, stupidity's inertia eventually becomes an insurmountable obstacle. It would be well advised to immediately suspend all plans and planning devised since 2014 (though it would have been infinitely better to do this before they ripped the spine out of Ratchayothin leaving traffic patterns to do <deleted> all for the next couple of years, but I digress).

This would allow absurdity's momentum to wind itself down, and a chance to begin anew, preferably with economics and engineering majors from pretty much anywhere other than here. In the interests of practicality, I use 'economics and engineering majors' more as euphemisms for anyone with the ability to say, no and make it stick. When all else, including intellect has failed, apply basic physics for chrissakes.

 

Or, conversely, continue attempting to outrun the tsunami of nonsense that all the 'governmental rumblings' have generated thus far. Though it can admittedly be frustrating to watch, it does nevertheless hold a modicum of entertainment value. Especially for they who find pleasure in laughing and crying, at the same time.

Edited December 1, 2016 by Songlaw
Grammatical errors, paragraphs, and dumbing down in general. You're welcome

[elgordo38]

7 hours ago, webfact said:

than earlier projected but whether the impacts will affect the GDP or not is yet to be assessed together with the overall economic performance, said Mr Don Nakornthap, senior director of Macro-economic Policy Office of the Bank of Thailand, on Wednesday.

Typical comment. Yes projections were not what we expected (call in the spin doctors) but but assessments must be made etc. etc. etc. Not to worry things will turn out on the positive side. 

[DSJPC]

does anything in Thailand ever go "according to plan"???

[khunPer]

That stats in article don't say much...

Isn't October more low season than September..?
Was was the same difference in percent for 2015..?

How is October arrivals 2016 compared to October 2015..?

[Anthony5]

4 minutes ago, khunPer said:

How is October arrivals 2016 compared to October 2015..?

See my post on the previous page, October 2015 had 2.6 M arrivals, so a decline of 20%

[FredNL]

It is not only the tourist sector that has a decreased revenue for the last 2 months or last year.

My company is in the e-Commerce business (B2B) and we are always counting the sales from each customer for our research.

 

We also have direct contact with our customers. Yesterday (Nov 30) we had an inquiry amoung our customers. None of them was positive about the future. We only had complaints that it hasn't been that bad ever...

 

Here is just a part of our listing.
 

Figures (%) related to 2015
Branch	Oct 2016	Nov 2016
Bankcuptcy	+ 142 %	+ 167 %
Bars	- 67 %	- 52 %
Company set up	- 78 %	- 84 %
Cosmetics	- 44 %	- 58 %
Hotels	- 35 %	- 37 %
Luxury goods	- 72 %	- 81 %
Pharmaceutical industry	- 5 %	- 11 %
Real Estate	- 35 %	- 48 %
Restaurants	- 65 %	- 78 %

 

The only thing that went up this year compairing to 2015 are the bankruptcies !!!

These figures DON'T lie !!!

 

 

Edited December 1, 2016 by FredNL