What will be the next "bubble" to burst?

[CLW]

Just wondering after reading and seeing on TV about many "alternative" crops for Thai farmers.

And as you might know, Thais are good in copying each other's business.

So I would like to start a discussion about what's going on with some agricultural products over the next year(s).

For myself, in the future I see prices going down of mangoes and limes.

The next could be melons.

Dragon fruit also a candidate.

[Speedo1968]

The Thai govt is pushing for farmers to grow more soy, perhaps not just due to any international shortage but, because Thai's now eat more meat, hence more feed for cows and cattle is required.

 

If you believe, as I do, that climate change is here to stay along with all its affects regarding pests / diseases / soil quality /water shortage and quality, hopefully the last few years of such changes will get the farmers to wake up.     From what I have seen so far in my local area ( Isaan ), there is little hope of that happening ( waking up ).     It doesn't help when there are no young people coming in to farming, just the grandfathers generation growing what they always have.

 

I have been in farming since 1961 in different countries and, am still amazed that at any agricultural / farming exhibition ( inc VIV ASIA ) even the equipment manufacturers still put no real thoughts in to what they design especially for climate control equipment for livestock houses.

 

No doubt companies such as Monsanto will stick with genetically unsuitable products, when it should be the farmer that looks at what was suitable in the past when similar climate changes occurred.     Diversification from within hardy breeds and more concentration on maintaining soil quality.

 

Growing "Green Fodder" ( soil less ) could be an answer, even for the small scale farmers.

 

Years ago when strawberries in the UK became popular everybody started to grow them.   At times of a good harvest they couldn't even be given away, prices as low as 6p a pound - became free "Just help yourself".

 

Guess none of us learn to adapt until we are really hurt in or pocket.

[elgordo38]

3 hours ago, Speedo1968 said:

  It doesn't help when there are no young people coming in to farming, just the grandfathers generation growing what they always have.

We do wish to continue eating but have no desire to take all the inherient risks associated with farming. Mother Nature being the big wild card. 

[DuiDui48]

Mushroom farming...everyone is doing it..One more year and we will see as many failed/closed mushroomfarming(ers)as Coffee Shops..

[Speedo1968]

2 hours ago, elgordo38 said:

We do wish to continue eating but have no desire to take all the inherient risks associated with farming. Mother Nature being the big wild card. 

 

By "inherent" do you mean the risks associated with the old or new farming practices ?

Mother Nature will always be the wild card - perhaps we should be prepared to be prepared.

[Deepinthailand]

4 hours ago, DuiDui48 said:

Mushroom farming...everyone is doing it..One more year and we will see as many failed/closed mushroomfarming(ers)as Coffee Shops..

But mushroom farming is relatively easy plastic sheets, plyable thin bamboo and hay we get from rice thrashing. We buy the mushroom blocks 5ft by 1 ft. Cut it down the middle to make two 5ft x 6 inch blocks Turn the soil place  blocks along furrow create an archway with bamboo sticks and cover with plastic sheeting (next door uses a tarp works just as well he uses bark color no need to cover with hay in his case I prefer my way more condensation.) then I cover with hay to bock light. After a couple of days to a week start harvesting. We sell them in shop and through other family businesses in our home village. Don't make a fortune but we eat lovley fresh mushrooms every day.

[Deepinthailand]

"From what I have seen so far in my local area ( Isaan ), there is little hope of that happening ( waking up ).     It doesn't help when there are no young people coming in to farming, just the grandfathers generation growing what they always have."

 

I live in Issan and I do see plenty of youngsters farming. Not as a way of life I grant you but keeping up with traditions most people here in my village grow rice not to sell but to eat. All but three of our rice fields (bought from neighbours) are put out to rice put ours with mothers and sisters land and we produce enough rice to see all the family through to the next harvest. We do sell at harvest the old rice from last year's crop if there is sufficient left. The other 3 rice fields are fenced off and are ideal for pig rearing plenty of mud for the little darlings and away from village for smell. now they are good little earners. We take all food rubish from school in village and slowly but surley getting the local markets to bag there unsold food to sell to us on the cheap to feed them . That along with the local rice mill supplying us with the ground husks make it well worth while.

Edited December 7, 2016 by Deepinthailand

[thaiguzzi]

Considering all the doom and gloom, rock bottom prices 12 months ago, still aint great prices now, rubber is still the game to be in, IF you do it correctly from day one.

Good trees, proper fertilizer and correct amounts, keep the land in good condition ie no chems, no ploughing, just grass cutting etc etc. Missus just cleared 95k net profit for 4 weeks production. Two of our tappers (husband/wife team) who tap one 28 rai parcel of land just took home 40k for a month's work at their 40% split. 20k pm per person aint too shabby a wage, better than starting pay for teachers, nurses etc.

[kickstart]

One bubble that has burst ,again  this year ,is the cassava  bubble ,what bit is coming on to the market  ,around here is about 1.60 baht/kg ,and  that was going for export ,this buyer said  no local buyers  buying ,as of yet .

As for soya  it is China  that is buying it all ,with there standard of living going up ,the Chinese  are in to pork ,and pigs need  soya ,I would say the Thai market would be the same ,Thai cattle do not eat that much ,at about 26 baht/kg  almost  too expensive  for  any large amounts in a cattle ration ,guy end of our soi  is growing it now ,and is watering  it most days ,he  has a drip  irrigation system ,economical on water ,but he still uses a lot ,has a bore hole pumps in to a small pond .

I agree  with speedo 1968 ,water will be the biggest  problem ,in the world ,not just  Thailand , in the future of agriculture( as in the guy above ) ,all this  irrigating ,just not sustainable ,(guy  near me  watering his sugar cain ,already  6 ft. tall ready for cutting ) .

Green fodder ,could be the way to go ,as for rice farming ,with most of it done from a tractor seat  now , some young people may  be tempted  to stay in farming,  a lot easier  than back in granddads  days,  what I have seen of cattle farming ,hard work  for not a lot of returns .milk price is good  now ,for good quality milk ,clean ,high  butter fat  and protein ,but difficult to produce .

As for mangos have seen 2 large fields grubbed out ,now sugar cain ,around here  not so many mangos for sale ,and limes  plenty of limes in concrete rings ,but no fruit on them.

[deonvz]

I live in the Thap Chang area Chanthaburi which before was covered by rubber plantations. When the rubber price fell to under 20 baht/kilo most farmers cut down the rubber tree's and planted Lam Yai (Longan) and now the whole area is flooded with it and i guess with in the next few years there will be a price drop in on these crops. Farmers were so scared that they were getting left behind  that they even cut down their rubber trees that were standing in the ground for seven years and due to get tapped the following year.

[DuiDui48]

This is what i want Thai people to START FARMING:

 

Hemp makes its comeback in Thailand

https://sensiseeds.com/en/blog/hemp-makes-its-comeback-in-thailandack-in-thailand/

 

And it has NOTHING to do with the CB..OKEY...NOTHING.

Edited December 8, 2016 by DuiDui48

[Speedo1968]

15 hours ago, Deepinthailand said:

"From what I have seen so far in my local area ( Isaan ), there is little hope of that happening ( waking up ).     It doesn't help when there are no young people coming in to farming, just the grandfathers generation growing what they always have."

 

I live in Issan and I do see plenty of youngsters farming. Not as a way of life I grant you but keeping up with traditions most people here in my village grow rice not to sell but to eat. All but three of our rice fields (bought from neighbours) are put out to rice put ours with mothers and sisters land and we produce enough rice to see all the family through to the next harvest. We do sell at harvest the old rice from last year's crop if there is sufficient left. The other 3 rice fields are fenced off and are ideal for pig rearing plenty of mud for the little darlings and away from village for smell. now they are good little earners. We take all food rubish from school in village and slowly but surley getting the local markets to bag there unsold food to sell to us on the cheap to feed them . That along with the local rice mill supplying us with the ground husks make it well worth while.

 

Thanks "Deepinthailand" for your comments.

Yes I too have seen food waste being used ( for pigs ), everything from cassava waste from the factory, non salable bean sprouts from the producers, fermented mangoes etc.   Also, bagged food scraps at the food stalls and small eateries.    Ground coffee waste for mushroom growers.

Rice shell has been more difficult to come by as more places grow vegetables under netting.   The used shell from duck farms, once sort after by rubber tree growers doesn't seem to be wanted much anymore - I have no idea why.

 

I know some junior schools here teach self-sufficiency, including in the town close to where I live, good to hear.

[elgordo38]

20 hours ago, Speedo1968 said:

 

By "inherent" do you mean the risks associated with the old or new farming practices ?

Mother Nature will always be the wild card - perhaps we should be prepared to be prepared.

We can talk about new farming practices till the cows come home. The old farmers are to set in their ways to change. The new farmers hmm is there any? young people want a glamorous lifestyle not slogging away in a field in Nakon Nowhere. They want the glitz the pomp everything they think they are entitled to which of course could be an empty stomach sometime in the not to distant future. 

[Grubster]

On 12/7/2016 at 9:57 AM, Speedo1968 said:

The Thai govt is pushing for farmers to grow more soy, perhaps not just due to any international shortage but, because Thai's now eat more meat, hence more feed for cows and cattle is required.

 

If you believe, as I do, that climate change is here to stay along with all its affects regarding pests / diseases / soil quality /water shortage and quality, hopefully the last few years of such changes will get the farmers to wake up.     From what I have seen so far in my local area ( Isaan ), there is little hope of that happening ( waking up ).     It doesn't help when there are no young people coming in to farming, just the grandfathers generation growing what they always have.

 

I have been in farming since 1961 in different countries and, am still amazed that at any agricultural / farming exhibition ( inc VIV ASIA ) even the equipment manufacturers still put no real thoughts in to what they design especially for climate control equipment for livestock houses.

 

No doubt companies such as Monsanto will stick with genetically unsuitable products, when it should be the farmer that looks at what was suitable in the past when similar climate changes occurred.     Diversification from within hardy breeds and more concentration on maintaining soil quality.

 

Growing "Green Fodder" ( soil less ) could be an answer, even for the small scale farmers.

 

Years ago when strawberries in the UK became popular everybody started to grow them.   At times of a good harvest they couldn't even be given away, prices as low as 6p a pound - became free "Just help yourself".

 

Guess none of us learn to adapt until we are really hurt in or pocket.

As we have a huge over stock of all crops in the world, and are using it to make ethanol at a much greater cost than fossil fuels I guess the future is very bleak for any unsubsidized farmer.

[CLW]

This is what i want Thai people to START FARMING:
 

Hemp makes its comeback in Thailand

https://sensiseeds.com/en/blog/hemp-makes-its-comeback-in-thailandack-in-thailand/
 
And it has NOTHING to do with the CB..OKEY...NOTHING.

What do you mean with CB?
Use as a "drug"?

The article from the link, I'm not so sure about the contents.
Something might be a wish thinking.
I'm working since one year to get the permission about a research on foreign Hemp varieties, no success so far.
But I'm under the impression that, as so often in Thailand, one hand doesn't know what the other does.
Because I'm sent from Ministry A to Z for permissions...

[elgenon]

Similarly, the Chinese thought they could make a killing in blueberries because the price was high. Got a bunch of land on the North American West Coast. Now I can buy blueberries at a price that is 80% cheaper than before.

[farmerjo]

How do the big markets work in Bangkok for supply?

Does farmer Rex turn up with a lorry load of limes(15 ton) early in the morning then line up with a cue number to auction them off in 100 kilo lots?

It's one thing to grow produce but understanding the marketing in Thailand is another,would be interested to hear how your lime ends up where it does for sale and at what price.

@CLW what's your basic understanding of it as i have no idea.

 

 

 

 

[billd766]

14 minutes ago, farmerjo said:

How do the big markets work in Bangkok for supply?

Does farmer Rex turn up with a lorry load of limes(15 ton) early in the morning then line up with a cue number to auction them off in 100 kilo lots?

It's one thing to grow produce but understanding the marketing in Thailand is another,would be interested to hear how your lime ends up where it does for sale and at what price.

@CLW what's your basic understanding of it as i have no idea.

 

 

 

 

 

AFAIK the farmers go to a central wholesale market. In the early days they bring the fruit/veg in on spec and hawk it around the wholesalers. If the quality is good and the quantity is reasonable they will probably get a contract to supply X amount of something on a daily or weekly basis at a price of Y per kilo/ton. If they can meet the demand they will do reasonably well subject to random testing and then they can be in line to supply more.

 

To meet the amounts required farmers may form a co-operative at their end so instead of 1 farmer supplying say 1 ton daily, 10 might supply 1 ton each.

 

The main wholesale markets are usually on the edges of the cities as the land is cheaper and there are no restrictions on the amount and size of the delivery vehicles. The main wholesalers then sell to the next wholesaler down in smaller bulk and they in turn do the same. At that level the normal market traders come in to buy to sell on to the end customers.

 

At least that is how it was explained to me by a friend who was in the business.

Edited December 8, 2016 by billd766
Added extra text

[farmerjo]

So if you have a one off harvest,you have to sell to someone who has a contract with a wholesaler?

[wayned]

Most of the consumer vegetables that are grown here, mainly sweet corn on the cob, baby corn and some Khana are trucked (overloaded pickup) to Bangkok, Pathum Thani I think, and sold.  They are just small plots, no hundreds of Rai of crop like in the US where it is sold to the canning Company in the field before it is harvested.  I have no idea how the final price is agreed upon.  When it's harvested it is harvested in the dark at 0200 - 0300 so the trucks can leave early and it is fresh on arrival.

 

[DuiDui48]

16 hours ago, CLW said:

What do you mean with CB?
Use as a "drug"?

The article from the link, I'm not so sure about the contents.
Something might be a wish thinking.
I'm working since one year to get the permission about a research on foreign Hemp varieties, no success so far.
But I'm under the impression that, as so often in Thailand, one hand doesn't know what the other does.
Because I'm sent from Ministry A to Z for permissions...

CB=Cannabis

[thoongfoned]

over the last 10-15 years have seen a good few crops/animals become the must do thing around us....... generally the cost is always setting said venture up, then finding the customer for said product. most dont do well beecause (to my mind anyway) dont give it enough time to "find its feet"  before they have binned off one idea for the next.... what ever you do if you do it properly and give it time you would stand alot better chance of making a return on said investment.

over the past 18 months fish farming is the "one to have" around us. people tend to farm in the tens of thousands per cycle. the macro boys have been happy because they have to dig the holes, one fella up the road has just dug out 16 rai of ponds, he is going into the contract fish business though, most people just do the one man band type of set up.

we have got the macro in doing so work at present, 20 ton machine, just over 4m baht new, this one was paid in full in under 3 years, maybe everyone should go out and buy one........

[billd766]

13 hours ago, farmerjo said:

So if you have a one off harvest,you have to sell to someone who has a contract with a wholesaler?

 

It looks like it and you wont get top price for it depending on what the crop is, simply because it is a one off.

 

I dont know where you live but if I were you I would get your wife to ask around the markets to try to find either a farmers co-op or a wholesaler.

 

I live in rural Khampaeng Phet and a few years ago we were considering forming a co-op locally and getting women (more reliable than men) to grow chillies on small plots of their own land and harvesting them to bring to us. We would then give a reasonable price for them. We would provide the plants and fertiliser etc to the growers.

 

After that we would have to ship them to a large wholesale market (possibly Nakhon Sawan 125 km away or BKK 350 km away), and find a buyer there at the giant wholesale market at Rangsit. He would have to approve the quantity and quality for a price and then we would talk amounts to be guaranteed and delivered to him.

 

It would mean that we would have to invest in a pickup with a box body possibly with a cooler, a driver (perhaps 2) who we could trust not to fall asleep and crash the truck as it would be a 12 hour trip leaving after midday so the they chillies would be fresh overnight for the market buyers very early in the morning.

 

I worked out that to make any reasonable money we would need more than a ton per day if we were lucky enough to get 4 baht per kg. 4 thb/kg is around 4,000 thb per ton. Take out of that the (2) drivers salary, the cost of the fuel, the cost of the truck purchase and maintenance and what we would pay the growers and it wasn't a paying proposition. Less than 4 baht was no use as we would have been running at a loss from day 1. If the wholesale/retail price dropped we would be throwing chillies away by the ton.

 

In the end I scrapped the idea but it was a good exercise in business costs.  Something that is essential before you start any business.

 

Market prices are the killer in any business. Just ask the current PM or Yingluck about the international rice market costs.

 

Buy low and sell high equals profit and happiness. Buy high and sell low equals disaster and misery.

 

 

[billd766]

1 hour ago, thoongfoned said:

over the last 10-15 years have seen a good few crops/animals become the must do thing around us....... generally the cost is always setting said venture up, then finding the customer for said product. most dont do well beecause (to my mind anyway) dont give it enough time to "find its feet"  before they have binned off one idea for the next.... what ever you do if you do it properly and give it time you would stand alot better chance of making a return on said investment.

over the past 18 months fish farming is the "one to have" around us. people tend to farm in the tens of thousands per cycle. the macro boys have been happy because they have to dig the holes, one fella up the road has just dug out 16 rai of ponds, he is going into the contract fish business though, most people just do the one man band type of set up.

we have got the macro in doing so work at present, 20 ton machine, just over 4m baht new, this one was paid in full in under 3 years, maybe everyone should go out and buy one........

 

A busy macro is a happy owner. An isle one is just a rusting lump of expensive metal.