TNSC: Thai currency to depreciate against US dollar this year

[SOUTHERNSTAR]

12 minutes ago, tonypace02 said:

People, please. Stop being naive. The one thing people can depend on is that whatever Lying Donald says will not  happen. The second thing you can depend on is that, before he says it, he has already decided he will blame for its not happening on the press, the democrats or his opposition du jour.

Read a basic psychology textbook. The man is a psychotic and a sociopath. At this time he cannot control the Fed so the currency should be relatively stable for two years, by which time he should be out of office.

 

So he and lying Hillary can share a room at the looney bin?

[joeyg]

2 minutes ago, SOUTHERNSTAR said:

So he and lying Hillary can share a room at the looney bin?

I believe he is the "lesser of the two evils."  Keep your seat belt on... 

[12DrinkMore]

2 hours ago, mikebell said:

Uk pound has dived from 73 when I first came here to 43 now.  How many Brits on a frozen state pension have been starved back to UK?  Thailand loses a minimum 65,000 a month each time.  I am forced to sell my house cheap to return to Europe.

 

Thailand loses a minimum 65,000 a month each time.

 

No it doesn't. There is no minimum spend. And a 65,000 Baht / month income is unlikely to force someone to go back to the UK.

 

How many Brits on a frozen state pension

 

At current rates the maximum UK State pension will be about THB 27,000. Nowhere near 65,000 Baht.

 

I am forced to sell my house cheap to return to Europe

 

If you had bought at THB 73/GBP and sell now for the same price at the current rate, you are looking at 40% profit in terms of GBP.

 

The UK has been subject to decades of pi55 poor self-serving administration, and has a history of "let's trash the GBP" episodes. The island, all that is left of a huge empire that existed just 100 years ago, is in terminal economic decline.

[mcfish]

Time to sell up your condo for those with struggling currencies? The baht buys A lot of Oz and brit money just to mention a few

Sent from my Redmi Note 3 using Tapatalk

[KarenBravo]

29 minutes ago, SOUTHERNSTAR said:

In the old economy yes. But in todays world the real economy doesnt influence interest rates but the Fed does. Yellen wants to increase interest rates but I doubt if Trumps wants that at present. We could see Yellen being replaced and lower than expected interest rates. The demand of dollars have nothing to do with interest rates. The demand of dollars are reflected in treasury bills yield rate. As the demand for US government bonds increase the price of the bonds increase but the yields decrease. This doesnt have a direct impact on interest rates paid by individuals and small companies. So the increased demand for government bonds have the opposite effect than what most people believe. 

 

OK, accepted.

Put it this way. If US dollar interest rates go up, this makes the dollar more valuable compared to the Baht, so, the exchange rate will move in favour of the dollar.

[Prbkk]

1 hour ago, joeyg said:

I was here in 1997 when the rate was 57 to the $.  Boy was that party time.

 

You are remembering through rose coloured glasses, I think, because IIRC it didn't go much below 45 and then only momentarily. Certainly it seemed that it might go lower as businesses went to the wall and the SET dropped to 220 ( now about 1480?). But yes, they were good days for people with USD to spend

[SOUTHERNSTAR]

12 minutes ago, KarenBravo said:

 

OK, accepted.

Put it this way. If US dollar interest rates go up, this makes the dollar more valuable compared to the Baht, so, the exchange rate will move in favour of the dollar.

Yes it can. But if Trump wants to implement his infrastructure policy and strengthening the US military he will need to increase spending which means a higher deficit and higher borrowing. Last year the interest payments for the US Federal government was already $150 bn. Further increases in the interest rate will mean higher interest payments for the US government = smaller amount available to spend on salaries and weapons. Accept for that, many companies have borrowed huge sums of "free" money to do share buy backs. This strategy works while the interests are low and these companies generate big profits, but if interest rates starts to increase when the economy goes into a down turn it will hurt many. We are seeing the results of the Feds intervention in market forces. Instead of allowing the market to correct it self after the 2008 slump they kept the equity and bond markets going by unrealistic low interest rates (DONT GET ME WRONG INTERVENTION WAS NEEDED BUT IT WENT ON TOO LONG). The business cycle are now turning towards the next downturn without fully recovering to pre 2007 levels, but due to inflation fears the Feds needs to increase interest rates. This is the opposite of "the old normal" where the Fed increase rates when the economy is starting to grow fast not after the peak. Yellens views are however confusing to me as the EU and Japan are facing deflationary/stagnation and are trying to increase inflation, if she increase interest rates which cause deflation the US will end up like Japan. Further more any nation that have $ 20 trillion debt should be running inflation at 3% plus and not at the present 2% target. Inflation will make the repayment/interest payments for the US government and companies easier. The other unknown factor is the amount of US bonds the Chinese will sell. They have been nett sellers last year and is now the second largest US bondholders after Japan.

[Prbkk]

49 minutes ago, mcfish said:

Time to sell up your condo for those with struggling currencies? The baht buys A lot of Oz and brit money just to mention a few

Sent from my Redmi Note 3 using Tapatalk
 

 

That ship has sailed: the AUD bottomed at 24.5 about 5 months ago and is now pushing 27 ( yes, a lot lower than the peak at almost 33 back in 2012).

[mcfish]

 
That ship has sailed: the AUD bottomed at 24.5 about 5 months ago and is now pushing 27 ( yes, a lot lower than the peak at almost 33 back in 2012).

Agreed toyed with it back then and could have sold at a loss and made a solid profit on exchange however there is no guarantee it will test that low again. Besides I'm not leaving and still need a home.

Sent from my Redmi Note 3 using Tapatalk

[HerbalEd]

4 hours ago, mikebell said:

Uk pound has dived from 73 when I first came here to 43 now.  How many Brits on a frozen state pension have been starved back to UK?  Thailand loses a minimum 65,000 a month each time.  I am forced to sell my house cheap to return to Europe.

Where do you get the 65k/month figure? 

 

So, are you saying it's now cheaper for you to live in Europe than it is to live in Thailand? That's hard to believe.

[Srikcir]

10 hours ago, webfact said:

the agency will keep a watchful eye on Trump’s policies and the economic status of the US.

Might want to also watch China yuen that might tumble 5% this year (and Russia ruble if Trump doesn't lift sanctions by Summer 2017), further pressuring further depression of the baht value. Increasing exports due to cheaper baht can be easily negated if inflation and household debt continues to rise.

Venezuela is a good case study where its exports increased and stock market index rose hundreds percent based on a falling bolivar value and super inflation. Thailand could easily follow the same pattern.

[wprime]

8 hours ago, KarenBravo said:

 

Nope....the US dollar is going to rise because the economy is strengthening. To control that growth, interest rates will go up.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/interest-rates-us

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/12/10/us-federal-reserve-poised-raise-interest-rates-trump-era-looms/

You say nope but your post and links support what I said, not what you originally claimed.

[joeyg]

7 hours ago, Prbkk said:

 

You are remembering through rose coloured glasses, I think, because IIRC it didn't go much below 45 and then only momentarily. Certainly it seemed that it might go lower as businesses went to the wall and the SET dropped to 220 ( now about 1480?). But yes, they were good days for people with USD to spend

Here it is at 55, looks like 55 from the chart in about 1997.  "Police exchanges" were giving 57.  I'm sure of that...  http://www.forecast-chart.com/exchange-thailand-baht.html

[Grubster]

11 hours ago, Prbkk said:

 

Trudeau has been good, certainly not a weak loonie.

 

11 hours ago, wprime said:

 

Interest rates are projected to rise because of an expected increase in demand for USD, not the other way. Just look at the long term treasury yields.

 

Also the TNSC's confidence is misplaced  (or more likely intentional to influence market confidence), the dropping THB will not boost exports, it'll merely compensate for declining exports so the net effect is just increased import costs and reduced local spending capacity.

If anybody here can accurately predict the future value of any currency  than he/she should become very rich soon. Good luck with that.

[wprime]

9 hours ago, Grubster said:

 

If anybody here can accurately predict the future value of any currency  than he/she should become very rich soon. Good luck with that.

It's not about me predicting the future, it's about reading what the market is predicting (which can be calculated from treasury yields).

 

Essentially if the market predicts economic growth, then they'll predict a long term demand for USD (needed to finance growth in the form of credit) so they predict interest rates will go up so demand for treasuries at the current price level drop (as if a security pays 2% return PA for 10 years but rates of 3% are predicted by 3 years, who'd want to buy them?) and as such the treasury prices drop and so the yields go up.

 

This doesn't mean it's certain, but it means it's certain that a majority of the market (as distributed by capitalization) believe such.

 

Unfortunately you can't use this to get rich quick because what the market predicts is already calculated into the price.

[HHTel]

All the talk about the $ gaining strength, so why has it been sliding against the baht since inauguration?

[joeyg]

35 minutes ago, HHTel said:

All the talk about the $ gaining strength, so why has it been sliding against the baht since inauguration?

I've wondered the same thing.  It was up to 35.80 pre election for several days.  Yesterday 35.15.  I think it's just a hiccup.

 

[maewang99]

the Thai EXPORT guy is saying (to the BOT)  "BUY MORE US TREASURIES INSTEAD OF BIDDING ON THAI BAHT IN FX MARKETS ... IF THE BAHT GETS EVEN ONE SATANG STRONGER... PLEASE!!!!!!! HELP!!!!!!"
 

but *****Trump***** says the Yuan.... and other Asian currencies.... are way undervalued... and Trump has levers that do a lot more than just "touch" currencies.....

 

ignore nonsense? no. everyone makes a bet.... and especially those with a pension in dollahs that are NOT hedged at all.

be hedged. 
 

Edited January 24, 2017 by maewang99

[12DrinkMore]

On 1/23/2017 at 0:30 PM, SOUTHERNSTAR said:

Yes it can. But if Trump wants to implement his infrastructure policy and strengthening the US military he will need to increase spending which means a higher deficit and higher borrowing. Last year the interest payments for the US Federal government was already $150 bn. Further increases in the interest rate will mean higher interest payments for the US government = smaller amount available to spend on salaries and weapons. Accept for that, many companies have borrowed huge sums of "free" money to do share buy backs. This strategy works while the interests are low and these companies generate big profits, but if interest rates starts to increase when the economy goes into a down turn it will hurt many. We are seeing the results of the Feds intervention in market forces. Instead of allowing the market to correct it self after the 2008 slump they kept the equity and bond markets going by unrealistic low interest rates (DONT GET ME WRONG INTERVENTION WAS NEEDED BUT IT WENT ON TOO LONG). The business cycle are now turning towards the next downturn without fully recovering to pre 2007 levels, but due to inflation fears the Feds needs to increase interest rates. This is the opposite of "the old normal" where the Fed increase rates when the economy is starting to grow fast not after the peak. Yellens views are however confusing to me as the EU and Japan are facing deflationary/stagnation and are trying to increase inflation, if she increase interest rates which cause deflation the US will end up like Japan. Further more any nation that have $ 20 trillion debt should be running inflation at 3% plus and not at the present 2% target. Inflation will make the repayment/interest payments for the US government and companies easier. The other unknown factor is the amount of US bonds the Chinese will sell. They have been nett sellers last year and is now the second largest US bondholders after Japan.

 

The old economics mantras need to be consigned into the rubbish bin. Some may have been valid in a closed economy, with a fixed amount of goods/services/cash running around. Now everything is globalised and supply can be ramped up and down rapidly to meet demand, even dropping the price. Old economics will tell you that it demand goes up, then so does the price. The exact opposite of where we are now.

 

The inflation/deflation is particular BS. Nobody or any insititution has any means of "controlling" it to a particular number. The central banks can only issue propaganda, monetary policy only hits asset prices, and there is no verifiable causal link between interest rates and consumer price inflation.

 

If interest rates directly affected inflation, then Japan should have been in double figure inflation for years. Or Europe. Or the UK. I suppose if the economists had left housing in the inflation calculations, then the numbers, both inflation and interest rates, would have been very different. But they didn't.

 

Particularly in the UK rising house prices have been one of the two main killers of economic growth. If people can no longer afford to buy their own homes, they either rent or stay with Mum and Dad. Renting not only sucks a large part of the otherwise spendable income out of the economy, but tennants also do not spend on rennovating and furnishing. The Brits are particularly selfish and blinkered when it comes to house prices. Only up is good, even staying constant is seen as stagnant and bad, sending the whole island into depression. The other killer has been decades of incompetent administration.

 

(Re China, as a seller of UST's at the top of the bond market and with a strong USD, they must be making huge RMB gains internally. There has been no discussion of this dynamic that I have read, but surely they are bolstering the Chinese banking system and paying off the debts?)

 

(RE Japan, the demographics of this insular island must surely send the GDP into decline for the next 30 years. It is the natural result of falling birthrates, an aging population and little immigrant replacement. I think it is a good thing. Fewer humans polluting the place, but governments and economists hate it)

[SOUTHERNSTAR]

24 minutes ago, 12DrinkMore said:

 

The old economics mantras need to be consigned into the rubbish bin. Some may have been valid in a closed economy, with a fixed amount of goods/services/cash running around. Now everything is globalised and supply can be ramped up and down rapidly to meet demand, even dropping the price. Old economics will tell you that it demand goes up, then so does the price. The exact opposite of where we are now.

 

The inflation/deflation is particular BS. Nobody or any insititution has any means of "controlling" it to a particular number. The central banks can only issue propaganda, monetary policy only hits asset prices, and there is no verifiable causal link between interest rates and consumer price inflation.

 

If interest rates directly affected inflation, then Japan should have been in double figure inflation for years. Or Europe. Or the UK. I suppose if the economists had left housing in the inflation calculations, then the numbers, both inflation and interest rates, would have been very different. But they didn't.

 

Particularly in the UK rising house prices have been one of the two main killers of economic growth. If people can no longer afford to buy their own homes, they either rent or stay with Mum and Dad. Renting not only sucks a large part of the otherwise spendable income out of the economy, but tennants also do not spend on rennovating and furnishing. The Brits are particularly selfish and blinkered when it comes to house prices. Only up is good, even staying constant is seen as stagnant and bad, sending the whole island into depression. The other killer has been decades of incompetent administration.

 

(Re China, as a seller of UST's at the top of the bond market and with a strong USD, they must be making huge RMB gains internally. There has been no discussion of this dynamic that I have read, but surely they are bolstering the Chinese banking system and paying off the debts?)

 

(RE Japan, the demographics of this insular island must surely send the GDP into decline for the next 30 years. It is the natural result of falling birthrates, an aging population and little immigrant replacement. I think it is a good thing. Fewer humans polluting the place, but governments and economists hate it)

Agree if you look at the US inflation calculation it has been changed about 28 times in 30 years. If you use the original method the US inflation figure is about 6% and not the official 2%. As for falling demographics I must point you to Europe and the inflow of illegal immigrants and a man called George Soros. 

[12DrinkMore]

15 minutes ago, SOUTHERNSTAR said:

Agree if you look at the US inflation calculation it has been changed about 28 times in 30 years. If you use the original method the US inflation figure is about 6% and not the official 2%. As for falling demographics I must point you to Europe and the inflow of illegal immigrants and a man called George Soros. 

 

It is part of the reason for Brexit and Trump.

 

The official figures indicate that things are really not too bad, but the general population is in the uncomfortable position that the official narrative of how they are supposed to be feeling does not match up with how they actually feel.

[Savilesghost]

On 23/01/2017 at 1:46 PM, HerbalEd said:

Where do you get the 65k/month figure? 

 

So, are you saying it's now cheaper for you to live in Europe than it is to live in Thailand? That's hard to believe.

I would hazard a guess and state some places in Europe are cheaper to live in than Thailand, Greece springs to mind as one, Italy another 

[12DrinkMore]

1 hour ago, Savilesghost said:

I would hazard a guess and state some places in Europe are cheaper to live in than Thailand, Greece springs to mind as one, Italy another 

Portugal.

[Grubster]

On 1/24/2017 at 6:15 AM, wprime said:

It's not about me predicting the future, it's about reading what the market is predicting (which can be calculated from treasury yields).

 

Essentially if the market predicts economic growth, then they'll predict a long term demand for USD (needed to finance growth in the form of credit) so they predict interest rates will go up so demand for treasuries at the current price level drop (as if a security pays 2% return PA for 10 years but rates of 3% are predicted by 3 years, who'd want to buy them?) and as such the treasury prices drop and so the yields go up.

 

This doesn't mean it's certain, but it means it's certain that a majority of the market (as distributed by capitalization) believe such.

 

Unfortunately you can't use this to get rich quick because what the market predicts is already calculated into the price.

Correct and therefore you , I . and all the rest cannot ever accurately predict the rise or fall of a currency. Well maybe if you are the FED.

[localczar]

th

On 2017-01-23 at 8:57 AM, IMA_FARANG said:

Niether you or I and also any Thai banker knows for sure.

We can all have opinions, but if we really knew we would ll be millionaires,

I don't know about you, but i am not a millionaire.

What I do have is a U.S pension coming to me here in Thailand monthly.

As long as i have the funds to live on each month, that is enough for me.

Beyond that , who can say?

Every day i get scam letters telling me to but Gold or some other thing.

Such letters tell me to send them a token deposit of only XXX dollars and they wil make me rich.

Just follow there sure fire program with my money and I will be rich.

It is no more than male cow fecal matierial.

 

 

a male cow is actually a bull....555. Hence, the appropriate term is usually "bovine scatology".

[ilostmypassword]

On 1/23/2017 at 9:21 AM, kiwikeith said:

If the dollar goes up then it is good for expats and tourists, but bad for Thais and petrol prices.

It may be bad for petrol prices but it's good for Thai exports. And that's a big part of the Thai economy.