Economic recession in Pattaya?

[morrobay]

18 hours ago, Naam said:

and a thread in which hotel six Chinese share a room (most probably a five-star establishment) 

And those six Chinese in a 5 star room are most likely part of a tour. A tour that gets a mass occupancy (take it or leave it ) discount. So the room is about a 3 star rate. 

[morrobay]

3 hours ago, craigt3365 said:

I've been doing my own "research" the past year or so.  Basically seeing how many shop houses are closed.  It seems that a lot are closed even in the high traffic areas.  The tourist areas seem to be OK and generally filled with people.  But outside that, quiet. 

 

I had some friends who had a 1 year contract to perform at a nice restaurant here.  that ended in December.  Owner, from Bangkok, says not enough business now to support them.  I don't think all these police checkpoints help much either!

"The tourist areas seem to be OK ..." Well Pattaya is a tourist town, so doing OK. Where was that restaurant ^ ?

[craigt3365]

8 minutes ago, morrobay said:

"The tourist areas seem to be OK ..." Well Pattaya is a tourist town, so doing OK. Where was that restaurant ^ ?

I've spoken with several restaurant owners in various parts of the city and all say business is down.

[bkk6060]

8 hours ago, craigt3365 said:

I've been doing my own "research" the past year or so.  Basically seeing how many shop houses are closed.  It seems that a lot are closed even in the high traffic areas.  The tourist areas seem to be OK and generally filled with people.  But outside that, quiet. 

 

I had some friends who had a 1 year contract to perform at a nice restaurant here.  that ended in December.  Owner, from Bangkok, says not enough business now to support them.  I don't think all these police checkpoints help much either!

HAHA.  Really seems like you have a negative disposition in general.  Just curious, you have your "research" charts to show us?

[craigt3365]

9 minutes ago, bkk6060 said:

HAHA.  Really seems like you have a negative disposition in general.  Just curious, you have your "research" charts to show us?

Not negative.  Just realistic.  None of Asia is booming right now.  Officially....LOL

[KittenKong]

8 hours ago, craigt3365 said:

I've been doing my own "research" the past year or so.  Basically seeing how many shop houses are closed.  It seems that a lot are closed even in the high traffic areas.  The tourist areas seem to be OK and generally filled with people.  But outside that, quiet. 

 

I certainly wont argue with your estimation but I will add that empty shop-houses have been a feature of Pattaya and area for at least 35 years to my personal knowledge. Some that I saw new and empty in 1985 are still empty today and, as far as I know, have never been occupied. Just another mystery of Thai economics, I suppose.

[craigt3365]

20 minutes ago, KittenKong said:

 

I certainly wont argue with your estimation but I will add that empty shop-houses have been a feature of Pattaya and area for at least 35 years to my personal knowledge. Some that I saw new and empty in 1985 are still empty today and, as far as I know, have never been occupied. Just another mystery of Thai economics, I suppose.

I think a lot can be blamed on over development. 

[yaagjon]

On ‎22‎/‎02‎/‎2017 at 7:37 PM, Naam said:

compared to 1973 it's peak time.

I wouldn't have thought there would have been a high season in 1973

[pegman]

One of the junta's first trail balloons was that all foreign controlled businesses in Thailand would need to change their Board of Directors to ensure Thai control. Direct foreign investment dropped like a lead balloon,  -87%. Heavy industry and manufacturing are much bigger than tourism or agriculture in Thailand. 

[craigt3365]

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/970426-car-exports-for-january-drops-1453-percent-the-lowest-in-19-months/

Quote

Car exports for January drops 14.53 percent, the lowest in 19 months

A lot of the manufacturing plants are here in the Eastern Seaboard.  Definitely will impact Pattaya.

[morrobay]

3 hours ago, craigt3365 said:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/970426-car-exports-for-january-drops-1453-percent-the-lowest-in-19-months/

A lot of the manufacturing plants are here in the Eastern Seaboard.  Definitely will impact Pattaya.

Keep up the good news !!

[Banana7]

It's understandable business is down in Pattaya, a city which basically just services foreigners, retirees and tourists. The foreigners have less money and many prices for goods and services have increased substantially. Almost all major western foreign currencies are down against the baht. The major currencies are GBP, EUR, AUD, CAD which have all lost about 25% or more in the last 5 years. Only USD is holding ground.  Prices for food and services in the past 5 years have increased in baht terms by at least 25%. A haircut use to be 40-45b now its 80b. Breakfast use to be 40b now its 70-75b and the bacon is simulated bacon. Even the coconut bar services have doubled in prices.

 

 

Edited February 24, 2017 by Banana7

[Viggo McQuaid]

On 23.2.2017 at 7:30 AM, craigt3365 said:

I've spoken with several restaurant owners in various parts of the city and all say business is down.

Cafe Des Amis has never had a better year ( 2016 ) 

[craigt3365]

12 minutes ago, Viggo McQuaid said:

Cafe Des Amis has never had a better year ( 2016 ) 

And a very well known one not far away has said it's the worst he's seen in 20 years.

[Rimmer]

An off topic political rant has been removed

[EvenSteven]

On 2/19/2017 at 11:17 PM, Naam said:

yes, tens of thousands of young attractive ladies are looking to marry elderly gentlemen, preferably age 70+, with a net worth exceeding €UR 5 million. 

Is Spain tax free?

[Naam]

3 hours ago, EvenSteven said:

Is Spain tax free?

not at all!

[Asiantravel]

On ‎19‎/‎02‎/‎2017 at 2:33 PM, manarak said:

Pattaya's economy has been slow for some years now. 2009, 2010 and 2011 were the worst years for consumer spending in the West and in 2010 currency pressure added to lower spending because Western currencies lost 20 to 25% against the Baht, so Western tourists stayed away.

 

Until 2014, Russian tourists compensated part of the shortfall, but then the Rouble lost 50% of its value, so Pattay and Thailand as a whole had to find a new solution urgently.

 

That's why they had the zero baht tours for Chinese - tourists were desperately needed - but the Chinese, as the Russians too, do not frequent bars much.

The consequence is that the bar industry has been hit very hard since 2008, and every other business in Pattaya too.

 

It's not an entirely bad thing though - I think the crisis has helped to keep in check economic models that aren't sound, such as running long-term businesses on premises that are rented short term.

 

Now I expect Pattaya's economy to slowly recover.

It looks like Trump will have a positive effect on the value of US workers' wages, and it looks like Europe is posed for some growth again - if the tensions with Russia ease, then we might see even more Russians coming to Pattaya.

It will be like "the good old times" came back.

 

I was in Nha Trang in Vietnam last week (a coastal resort like Pattaya which is north of Ho Chi Minh City) and it was teeming with Russians -far more than you see here in Thailand so I would say that's where they are now going. Interestingly also many of the businesses such as restaurants are owned by Russians (and a wide variety of other nationalities) who stand outside their establishments and actively promote their business to passers-by.

I felt that overall Nha Trang has more appeal to families and with better value than Pattaya.it's an exceptionally clean city without the pollution you see here particularly in the ocean.

Edited February 25, 2017 by Asiantravel

[Asiantravel]

On ‎19‎/‎02‎/‎2017 at 4:49 PM, JSixpack said:

 

You must awfully new here never to have heard of the Pattaya Perpetual Death Spiral. The phenomenon was first noted in the Pattaya Mail around 1997, but commentary reached full fruition here in the forum.

 

2007: Pattaya's Dead

2008: Is Pattaya Dead Right Now?
2009: Pattaya Is Dead Dead Dead
2010: Why Is Everything Closing Down?
2011: Even More Dead Than Last Year?
2012: What'S Next For A Beach Tourist Destination Like Pattaya?
2013: Widening Of Beach Rd Started At North End
2014: Is Pattaya really on the bones of it arse at the minute?
2015: The beach walkway? Low season is really low Pattaya is dead.

 

And one of our Death threads just finished up a few months ago after 32 pages of autopsy, death certificates, and reburial:

 

2016: Pattaya going downhill!

 

Moreover our ace TVF Real Estate Analysts just finished another 8-page exhaustive Condo Glut thread a couple months ago here:

 

this is what is also behind the facade of the Pattaya condominium market?

 

And petered out into the same conclusion as they've reached for the last 10 years or more: that we don't actually know how many unsold condos [houses] there are, we KNOW there're too many for what we've determined as optimal, we prophecy again the great Condo Crash, and we're just completely mystified, as we always have been, as to why it hasn't happened but it must be real soon now. :) And it got all global, too, demonstrating the kind of mastery of macroeconomics you can only find here at TVF.

 

So what more do you need? Read over those threads; nothing new possibly be said here that hasn't already, so then we can just not waste our time here.

 

 

thank you so much for remembering my thread Jsixpack but it's not just economic's anymore that will drive would be property buyers away from Thailand to places where there is a decent judicial system.

now there is the added dimension of the highly negative image of Thailand real estate that the BBC through their worldwide network are likely to be able to generate if their South-East Asian correspondent Jonathan Head ends up in jail for just doing his job and exposing a very insiduous property scam(see the thread in this forum) in Phuket.

by the time the BBC have finished exposing what can happen to you when you invest your hard earned money in real estate in this country (and to their own journalists  for just seeking to warn people about this)no one will want to invest  even a brass razoo

[manarak]

2 hours ago, Asiantravel said:

 

I was in Nha Trang in Vietnam last week (a coastal resort like Pattaya which is north of Ho Chi Minh City) and it was teeming with Russians -far more than you see here in Thailand so I would say that's where they are now going. Interestingly also many of the businesses such as restaurants are owned by Russians (and a wide variety of other nationalities) who stand outside their establishments and actively promote their business to passers-by.

I felt that overall Nha Trang has more appeal to families and with better value than Pattaya.it's an exceptionally clean city without the pollution you see here particularly in the ocean.

that sounds very nice - but I heard nightlife entertainment is rather sparse in Vietnam, can you confirm?

[Asiantravel]

12 minutes ago, manarak said:

that sounds very nice - but I heard nightlife entertainment is rather sparse in Vietnam, can you confirm?

sparse?

I don't know where you heard that but it's certainly not true. Perhaps in the past Ho Chi Minh City and Nha Trang were a bit more exciting than Hanoi but that's certainly not the case anymore. Even Danang has nightlife entertainment. perhaps it's all the Russians, Chinese, Koreans and Japanese that are making it all happen there

[mauroest]

we were in NhaTrang too, with my russian relatives.  

Russian tourists move to new destinations following others russian.

Destination must have sea, sunshine, fish and piva (beer).

Usually They do not know well the area where they will travel

 

Most of them do not know one word of English and get all information from russian forums and most of them rent apartment from others  russian people.

 

Many are in NhaTrang as in Pattaya Wongamat area. You will see young couples with baby, try to walk on destroyed 'platform'  and dirty beaches.

 

[morrobay]

On 2/25/2017 at 1:02 PM, Asiantravel said:

 

I was in Nha Trang in Vietnam last week (a coastal resort like Pattaya which is north of Ho Chi Minh City) and it was teeming with Russians -far more than you see here in Thailand so I would say that's where they are now going. Interestingly also many of the businesses such as restaurants are owned by Russians (and a wide variety of other nationalities) who stand outside their establishments and actively promote their business to passers-by.

I felt that overall Nha Trang has more appeal to families and with better value than Pattaya.it's an exceptionally clean city without the pollution you see here particularly in the ocean.

For sure.https://www.google.co.th/search?q=pictures+of+nha+trang+beach&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiB6Ya2ut_SAhUGpI8KHdSUCp8QsAQIJw&biw=1920&bih=974&dpr=1#imgrc=47vG3XZ9_HaubM:

[Asiantravel]

15 hours ago, mauroest said:

we were in NhaTrang too, with my russian relatives.  

Russian tourists move to new destinations following others russian.

Destination must have sea, sunshine, fish and piva (beer).

Usually They do not know well the area where they will travel

 

Most of them do not know one word of English and get all information from russian forums and most of them rent apartment from others  russian people.

 

Many are in NhaTrang as in Pattaya Wongamat area. You will see young couples with baby, try to walk on destroyed 'platform'  and dirty beaches.

 

 

I don't want to misunderstand you but are you saying NhaTrang has dirty beaches? if so you must be joking particularly compared to

Pattaya. please tell me exactly in which part of NhaTrang you saw dirty beaches?

and again  if by " platform " you mean sidewalk or pavement, they are beautifully clean and in good condition throughout the city and beyond unlike the disgraceful condition of pavements in Pattaya.

[Rimmer]

A post with messed up quotes has been removed

[mauroest]

there is not comparison between Pattaya and NhaTrang beaches.
I know well both.

Couples or elderely arrive in PTY with false-confused  information or men seek sex fun

I just wrote how most  russian tourists move.
Another destination is Mexico

[thaibeachlovers]

On 2/19/2017 at 6:12 PM, champers said:

I have noticed that since the Chinese New Year holiday period ended there are fewer of them around. I think there are more people in total coming here, but fewer of the type that spend their evening in bars. Investors are still investing in Pattaya and surely with a view to getting a solid return. If there is a downturn now it is overstating to call it a recession.

I think there are more people in total coming here, but fewer of the type that spend their evening in bars.

So true. The hotels, bars and girls have priced themselves beyond what mongers are probably willing to pay.

Pattaya has always been a cluster f***, but mongers were prepared to put up with it while it was cheap.

Now the demographic has changed, and I have been on a baht bus when the Indians were trying to barter the 10 baht each down!!!!!!!!!

I have no idea how many are staying at the resorts, but I doubt their guests were ever into the bar culture anyway. Regardless, they seem to be surviving OK, being self contained with no necessity to leave the grounds.

Economics always goes in cycles, but it seems to me that many bought into the Russian invasion big time, and are losing out badly now.

Whatever, Pattaya forgot what it was ( a crappy beach, crappy infrastructure, but loads of night entertainment ) and thought a stupid, badly designed walkway would bring the rich people in. All they have done is make the infrastructure worse, without benefiting the locals.

[swissmaninthailand]

True. Many buildings are half finished.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[newnative]

1 hour ago, swissmaninthailand said:

True. Many buildings are half finished.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I counted just one unfinished  building in your video--which looks like a small project not in any sort of a prime location.  I would question that there are 'many' half finished condo projects.  I can think of the project next to La Royale called Centara,  Waterfront, Sea Max,  that concrete 4 story shell from years ago visible from Sukumvit in the Na Jomtien area, plus a few that were halted before the construction stage like North Beach and Ocean 1.  Some others are slowly limping along with their construction but haven't been abandoned and will probably eventually be finished.   I'm sure there are other half finished projects I don't know of but all put together it doesn't seem like 'many' to me. 

[GAZZPA]

Difficult to say what the real situation is, can't really get reliable data form Thailand. However, I can say for sure that everybody seems to be downbeat. I know a few hardware shop owners who sell to developers that are really struggling and their view is building is slowing down. I also note many, many bars and restaurants sitting empty whereas if my memory serves were once much busier. I don't have data to support this but I have lived through a few recessions in my life and Pattaya feels like it is in one.

 

Another factor is I have seen a dozen or more people leave this year, a couple have gone to Spain, 2 couples I know back to the US, 1 family back to the UK. All giving various reasons for leaving but a common thread is no money here, exchange rate issues or fed up with the "anti foreign" attitude that seems to be breeding locally.

 

I run a business here and it is difficult right now. Can get business but making the margins is tough as people seem to haggle more and more.

 

I think it has to be that Thailand is not helping itself in ever growing competition in SEA. Other countries do seem to be more open arms and are spending time and money on developing infrastructure and paving the way for the next 10 or 20 years. Thailand is doing some of that but not as much in my view.

 

I guess the locals can hope that a new government run by professional politicians and not soldiers should bring results in the new year, if not I can always go home, but feel sorry for the locals if something does not change.