Trial of Thailand's Yingluck fails to break Shinawatra machine

[Eric Loh]

2 hours ago, webfact said:

UNCHALLENGED IN NORTHEAST

Probably uncertainty in the South on how voters will respond after all the hard work and support for the PDRC but have not got their due rewards and continue to suffer increasing economic hardship. The internal Dem Party friction caused by conflicting allegiance to the leadership and the turmoil that Suthep have caused will disappoint and may split voter's loyalty.  

[geriatrickid]

Oh jeez we get to rehash the same old arguments. This is like a remake of a remake of a remake of a bad movie. 

 

[Artisi]

1 minute ago, geriatrickid said:

Oh jeez we get to rehash the same old arguments. This is like a remake of a remake of a remake of a bad movie. 

 

All based on a poorly written story... 

[Ricardo]

52 minutes ago, Smarter Than You said:

"The Yingluck government has set aside Bt400 billion for the rice pledging scheme. It has spent Bt260 billion, over two harvests, to buy up paddy from farmers – with white rice at Bt15,000 per tonne and homali fragrant rice at Bt20,000 per tonne. Kittiratt said that by September the government is expected to use the remaining Bt170 billion in the budget to purchase more rice from farmers in order to fulfil its policy obligation.

The rice price pledging scheme is funded largely via borrowing. The FinanceMinistry has borrowed short-term money to the tune of around Bt260 billion to finance the scheme, operated by the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives."

 

There is an endless list of sources I can quote.

 

Poor Robblok .....reality beckons.

 

Just to point out that, if the spending on the rice-pledging scheme had been in the government's own budget, then they should not IMO have later needed to borrow short-term to finance it ?

 

If the scheme had been a subsidy, as some like to claim, then the planned-for losses would have been included-in the Budget, but since the whole scheme was supposed to be cost-neutral & self-financing, then there was no budget provided to cover the losses when they arose.

 

And the payments due to farmers would not have become delayed & then stopped, when the borrowing-limit with the (wholly-government-owned) bank was reached, if the government had budgeted properly for the cost of the scheme from within its own budget.

 

The BAAC did warn that the limit was being reached, before they actually slowed and then stopped paying-out to farmers, the government should perhaps have repaid some of the outstanding-debt from central-funds, to permit the scheme to continue for longer ? 

 

IIRC they preferred to try to pressure BAAC into continuing to pay out, beyond the limit set, and the management of the bank refused to stick their necks out and do that.  Possibly they wished to avoid being blamed later on, for allowing the scheme to exceed the agreed limits ?

 

 

 

[Artisi]

5 minutes ago, Ricardo said:

 

Just to point out that, if the spending on the rice-pledging scheme had been in the government's own budget, then they should not IMO have later needed to borrow short-term to finance it ?

 

If the scheme had been a subsidy, as some like to claim, then the planned-for losses would have been included-in the Budget, but since the whole scheme was supposed to be cost-neutral & self-financing, then there was no budget provided to cover the losses when they arose.

 

And the payments due to farmers would not have become delayed & then stopped, when the borrowing-limit with the (wholly-government-owned) bank was reached, if the government had budgeted properly for the cost of the scheme from within its own budget.

 

The BAAC did warn that the limit was being reached, before they actually slowed and then stopped paying-out to farmers, the government should perhaps have repaid some of the outstanding-debt from central-funds, to permit the scheme to continue for longer ? 

 

IIRC they preferred to try to pressure BAAC into continuing to pay out, beyond the limit set, and the management of the bank refused to stick their necks out and do that.  Possibly they wished to avoid being blamed later on, for allowing the scheme to exceed the agreed limits ?

 

 

 

Please don't confuse the YL supporters. 

Edited July 18, 2017 by Artisi

[Eric Loh]

7 minutes ago, Ricardo said:

 

Just to point out that, if the spending on the rice-pledging scheme had been in the government's own budget, then they should not IMO have later needed to borrow short-term to finance it ?

 

If the scheme had been a subsidy, as some like to claim, then the planned-for losses would have been included-in the Budget, but since the whole scheme was supposed to be cost-neutral & self-financing, then there was no budget provided to cover the losses when they arose.

 

And the payments due to farmers would not have become delayed & then stopped, when the borrowing-limit with the (wholly-government-owned) bank was reached, if the government had budgeted properly for the cost of the scheme from within its own budget.

 

The BAAC did warn that the limit was being reached, before they actually slowed and then stopped paying-out to farmers, the government should perhaps have repaid some of the outstanding-debt from central-funds, to permit the scheme to continue for longer ? 

 

IIRC they preferred to try to pressure BAAC into continuing to pay out, beyond the limit set, and the management of the bank refused to stick their necks out and do that.  Possibly they wished to avoid being blamed later on, for allowing the scheme to exceed the agreed limits ?

 

 

 

Try explaining that to the farmers. Does it matter !!! The farmers still love her and the party and that's what matter. 

[Ricardo]

1 minute ago, Artisi said:

Please don't the YL supporters. 

 

Sorry  ...  just that I recall being bemazed at-the-time, at the sight of the management of a wholly-government-owned bank, refusing to follow their owners' orders and keep paying-out, beyond the limit of the loan agreed.

 

Banking probity in Thailand  ...  simply amazing !

 

I would incidentally agree with Smarter Than You's post #17, that the Cabinet did properly authorise the scheme, shame in-hindsight that they didn't then monitor it more-closely, but perhaps they relied upon the PM's chairing of the monitoring-committee as being sufficient ?

[greenchair]

3 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

The simple truth is that the Thai people do not want the Yellow/Greens. But, their choice is taken away.

 

Perhaps those who don't like the Shins could offer an alternative that people actually DO like? 

 

Nah, it is easier to cheat.

Over the years I have asked several reds, purples, yellows and every shade, if puea thai were totally dismantled which of the other parties would be suitable.  

Reds, purples, every other other shade chose a variety of parties and said they wouldn't mind any one of them that was elected and won the votes. 

But the yellows. 

What about chart thai? Not suitable. 

Bhumjaithai?  Not suitable.

Phalong chon?  No.

Rak party? No. 

The suthep /Dems  truly believe they are the only ones capable of running the country. They say they want to rid the country of the Shins, when in fact, the yellows cannot and will accept any other party except themselves.  

[Ricardo]

1 minute ago, Eric Loh said:

Try explaining that to the farmers. Does it matter !!! The farmers still love her and the party and that's what matter. 

 

Luckily it's not my job to try getting that message across  ...  I agree that the military have failed to do that convincingly  ...  we all love to believe in a benevolent power which will make all our problems disappear ! 

 

I rather suspect that many of the farmers learned not to trust any government so much, expecially the families of the people who borrowed short-term from the local-mafia to keep their finances going, and the families of the subsequent suicides ?

 

But yes, there are clearly many people who still support the Shinawatra-Family-Party, which shows that they're clever politicians  ...  pity there's no populist-party able to step-in and represent the poor, in it's place as yet. 

[smutcakes]

10 minutes ago, Ricardo said:

 

Sorry  ...  just that I recall being bemazed at-the-time, at the sight of the management of a wholly-government-owned bank, refusing to follow their owners' orders and keep paying-out, beyond the limit of the loan agreed.

 

Banking probity in Thailand  ...  simply amazing !

 

I would incidentally agree with Smarter Than You's post #17, that the Cabinet did properly authorise the scheme, shame in-hindsight that they didn't then monitor it more-closely, but perhaps they relied upon the PM's chairing of the monitoring-committee as being sufficient ?

 

Or the soon to be new owners let those at the bank know in no uncertain terms where their bread is buttered. Funny how they suddenly found a load of money after the new owners came in for many projects at the whim of the new owners with no 'budget' in sight. For such studios fella's who stopped lending due to going beyond the limit of an agreed loan, they certainly had a change of thinking quickly.

[Ricardo]

3 minutes ago, smutcakes said:

 

Or the soon to be new owners let those at the bank know in no uncertain terms where their bread is buttered. Funny how they suddenly found a load of money after the new owners came in for many projects at the whim of the new owners with no 'budget' in sight. For such studios fella's who stopped lending due to going beyond the limit of an agreed loan, they certainly had a change of thinking quickly.

 

Studious fellows indeed !

 

And the new government was still financing those rice-scheme debts with short-term (2-3 year ?) loans, last thing I heard, but sooner-or-later the losses must surely be recognised and repaid by the government?

 

I'm glad that I'm not one of the bank's auditors !

[idman]

The Shinawatra Machine will never be broken. Give the Evil One his due, he knew what it would take to sway the poor, unwashed, the under educated, the backward masses to forever remain faithful to him, his family and his minions. Give them small incremental increases to improve their lives or so they believed. Know you have the numbers in voting, you have the money to buy the necessary votes and your power and influence will never be broken. As long as Thaksin is alive and still capable of pulling all the strings for the Reds the goal is to regain power. That cannot be allowed to happen so no elections as the outcome is a foregone conclusion. Prayut is not a dummy, he knows that and he will not step aside and hold elections unless he can be assured that Thaksin and the Red shirts will not take over again.

Sent from my SM-T805 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[esprit]

24 minutes ago, Ricardo said:

 

Luckily it's not my job to try getting that message across  ...  I agree that the military have failed to do that convincingly  ...  we all love to believe in a benevolent power which will make all our problems disappear ! 

 

I rather suspect that many of the farmers learned not to trust any government so much, expecially the families of the people who borrowed short-term from the local-mafia to keep their finances going, and the families of the subsequent suicides ?

 

But yes, there are clearly many people who still support the Shinawatra-Family-Party, which shows that they're clever politicians  ...  pity there's no populist-party able to step-in and represent the poor, in it's place as yet. 

Your final para is what is really needed to move the country forward and exploit it's true potential IMHO

[esprit]

5 minutes ago, idman said:

The Shinawatra Machine will never be broken. Give the Evil One his due, he knew what it would take to sway the poor, unwashed, the under educated, the backward masses to forever remain faithful to him, his family and his minions. Give them small incremental increases to improve their lives or so they believed. Know you have the numbers in voting, you have the money to buy the necessary votes and your power and influence will never be broken. As long as Thaksin is alive and still capable of pulling all the strings for the Reds the goal is to regain power. That cannot be allowed to happen so no elections as the outcome is a foregone conclusion. Prayut is not a dummy, he knows that and he will not step aside and hold elections unless he can be assured that Thaksin and the Red shirts will not take over again.

Sent from my SM-T805 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

Prayut is a dummy and only does what he is told to do by his masters

Edited July 18, 2017 by esprit

[LannaGuy]

46 minutes ago, Ricardo said:

 

Just to point out that, if the spending on the rice-pledging scheme had been in the government's own budget, then they should not IMO have later needed to borrow short-term to finance it ?

 

If the scheme had been a subsidy, as some like to claim, then the planned-for losses would have been included-in the Budget, but since the whole scheme was supposed to be cost-neutral & self-financing, then there was no budget provided to cover the losses when they arose.

 

And the payments due to farmers would not have become delayed & then stopped, when the borrowing-limit with the (wholly-government-owned) bank was reached, if the government had budgeted properly for the cost of the scheme from within its own budget.

 

The BAAC did warn that the limit was being reached, before they actually slowed and then stopped paying-out to farmers, the government should perhaps have repaid some of the outstanding-debt from central-funds, to permit the scheme to continue for longer ? 

 

IIRC they preferred to try to pressure BAAC into continuing to pay out, beyond the limit set, and the management of the bank refused to stick their necks out and do that.  Possibly they wished to avoid being blamed later on, for allowing the scheme to exceed the agreed limits ?

 

 

 

The world movement in rice prices scuppered the break-even scenario but that is no reason to persecute (and give yourself amnesty to cover for said persecution). This is NOT about rice.

[AGareth2]

Peace bread and land!

[Smarter Than You]

42 minutes ago, idman said:

The Shinawatra Machine will never be broken. Give the Evil One his due, he knew what it would take to sway the poor, unwashed, the under educated, the backward masses to forever remain faithful to him, his family and his minions. Give them small incremental increases to improve their lives or so they believed. Know you have the numbers in voting, you have the money to buy the necessary votes and your power and influence will never be broken. As long as Thaksin is alive and still capable of pulling all the strings for the Reds the goal is to regain power. That cannot be allowed to happen so no elections as the outcome is a foregone conclusion. Prayut is not a dummy, he knows that and he will not step aside and hold elections unless he can be assured that Thaksin and the Red shirts will not take over again.

Sent from my SM-T805 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

You are wrong.

The longer you are in government the more enemies you accrue, the more ammunition the opposition amasses and the more people weary of you.

If the military would just leave Thai democracy alone for a minute or two - Thaksin's party would eventually get voted out.

[AGareth2]

2 minutes ago, Smarter Than You said:

If the military would just leave Thai democracy alone for a minute or two - Thaksin's party would eventually get voted out.

but not before they were voted back in!

[LannaGuy]

Just now, AGareth2 said:

but not before they were voted back in!

Maybe but it's not going to happen nor is your 'no elections' for you are missing the strategy of 'rigged elections' for the sake of international 'face' where any outcome is no outcome as the 'wise council' will over-rule anything they see fit and veto any PM not to their liking.

 

This sinister methodology is being 'created' as we type. Now we have 'democracy' the Junta will yell and many may fall for it... but not all.

[Eric Loh]

6 minutes ago, LannaGuy said:

Maybe but it's not going to happen nor is your 'no elections' for you are missing the strategy of 'rigged elections' for the sake of international 'face' where any outcome is no outcome as the 'wise council' will over-rule anything they see fit and veto any PM not to their liking.

 

This sinister methodology is being 'created' as we type. Now we have 'democracy' the Junta will yell and many may fall for it... but not all.

Are you implying that the good guys are sinister, evil, manipulative and will never let go power. History say yes and more coups. 

[Artisi]

1 hour ago, esprit said:

Prayut is a dummy and only does what he is told to do by his masters

And who are his master's, would you like to have a guess, or would plucking  a name from a hat be more accurate. 

[heybruce]

3 hours ago, robblok said:

Seems an awful lot like defending the ptp (not you by the way). I love the Dutch system as it is fair, people are always talking about how the system here should be fairer. But it seems they don't want it because then the PTP could not cheat anymore. Give me an example of Democrats cheating during election. Because I call the stunt that YL pulled by not putting the rice program in the books cheating.. thus having more spending power on popular policies. That is an highly unfair advantage. If you can't acknowledge that your bias. Democrats don't win elections.  So they get the military to appoint them to power.  I'm sure you don't consider that cheating.

Abhisit, a Democrat, was responsible for problems identified by ANFREL in the 2011 election. http://www.ipajournal.com/2011/07/05/anfrel-statement-after-thai-election/    

 

However in spite of the deficiencies in this election organized and held by the Democrats, the results were judged:

 

" process that has produced election results that generally seem to reflect the will of the people. "

 

The will of the people was a resounding rejection of the Democrats.

 

BTW, the Democrats were in power inf 2011 after being effectively appointed by the military and its backers in parliament and the courts.  Many people consider this cheating.

[heybruce]

4 hours ago, robblok said:

Wanna beat that I can win an election I just offer the farmers 100% on the rice , off course i would not put it in the central budget because then I would have to cut stuff like education and health care because its too expensive to put that in the budget. Maybe I call it cost neutral and hide it off books or wait for a 2 trillion loan from the Chinese for other stuff but I use that to cover up the losses. (sounds familiair). But then i get into trouble paying farmers (a few months before i step down). But I will blame the banks and if some farmers kill themselves so be it. (sounds familiar). 

 

Then later I step down and make no provisions to pay the farmers and blame others. Meanwhile I will let my ministers profit too by engaging in fake G2G deals so they can sell the rice twice to the system. i also wont account for smuggled in rice from other countries because too many checks would make it hard for my minions to cheat.. they all need to have some money. 

You object to an elected party that you falsely accuse of keeping rice subsidies off-budget and that attempted, then withdrew, and amnesty program.  Yet you support a military junta that keeps passes military budgets in without discussion and grants amnesty for all coup leaders.

[Artisi]

1 hour ago, Smarter Than You said:

You are wrong.

The longer you are in government the more enemies you accrue, the more ammunition the opposition amasses and the more people weary of you.

If the military would just leave Thai democracy alone for a minute or two - Thaksin's party would eventually get voted out.

Not while ever they have money to buy who ever they deem needs convincing. 

[heybruce]

""The more the military pushes the Puea Thai Party the more sympathy the party gets," Rotcharin Waratsirisophon, 54, a party member told Reuters in the northeastern province of Khon Kaen.

 

"Puea Thai is even more popular now.""

 

That was predictable, in fact I was predicting in the months after the coup that the coup would change the perception of Yingluck from incompetent PM to democratic martyr.  I also maintained, then and now, that the election the PTP was attempting the hold in July 2014 was an ideal opportunity to weaken the power  of the PTP democratically, as it would have been held when the party was at a low point in popularity.

 

That didn't suit the junta fans,, many were outraged at the suggestion that the coup would make Yingluck more popular.  They loved the quick fix of the coup, and insisted that we should give Prayut a chance.  After all, he was promising elections "next year".  And he's been promising elections next year ever since.

Edited July 18, 2017 by heybruce

[coulson]

They need a Gandhi type.

You mean like a monk?.....I believe they already have, he was out on the trail with the other guy, and his pair or worn out Adidas

[Chris Lawrence]

Thailand exported 10.8 million tons of milled rice valued at US$5.37 billion in 2014, the highest figures in its history. 2014 rice exports represented an increase of 64 percent in volume and 22 percent value in compared to 6.6 million tonnes worth US$4.42 billion exported in 2013.^[23] Exports declined in 2015, to 9.8 million tonnes, worth US$4.61 billion. Exports in 2016 are expected to amount to nine million tonnes, worth US$4.3 billion.

In 2015, Thailand was the world's second leading exporter of rice, 9.8 million tonnes, behind India, at 10.2 million tonnes. Vietnam was third, exporting 6.61 million tonnes. Wikipedia

 

The sad part to all of this is:

Many farmers are in debt to local businessmen for their mortgages. The percentage of farmers owning land in Thailand has dropped—from 44 percent in 2004 to 15 percent in 2011. Land rights problems have been exacerbated by political turmoil over the past 15 years. Often new governments fail to honour the land rights commitments made to farmers by past regimes. Wikipedia

 

But to the rescue comes the Calvary:

In 2011, farmers in Thailand could sell a kilogram of rice for 16 baht (US$0.50). In 2016, to make 16 baht, a farmer has to sell three kilograms as the worldwide price of rice has declined. The fall in price has prompted the military government to introduce rice farmer subsidies of 38 billion baht (US$1.1 billion; £860 million). Wikipedia

 

The percentage of farmers owning land in Thailand has dropped—from 44 percent in 2004 to 15 percent in 2011. Land rights problems have been exacerbated by political turmoil over the past 15 years. Often new governments fail to honour the land rights commitments made to farmers by past regimes. Here lies the real problem.

[Chris Lawrence]

5 minutes ago, coulson said:

 

You mean like a monk?.....I believe they already have, he was out on the trail with the other guy, and his pair or worn out Adidas

 

No. The Mad Monk or the Fly by your pants Monk.

[robblok]

22 minutes ago, heybruce said:

You object to an elected party that you falsely accuse of keeping rice subsidies off-budget and that attempted, then withdrew, and amnesty program.  Yet you support a military junta that keeps passes military budgets in without discussion and grants amnesty for all coup leaders.

Not falsely accuse. I posted proof, the actual budgets and nobody here was able to show where it was in the budgets. I have shown that the agricultural budget was to low for the subsidies. So its not there.. there is a link to the actual budget, feel free to prove me wrong. But unfortunately for you you cant. 

 

 

budget_in_brief_2012.pdf

Edited July 18, 2017 by robblok

[Becker]

23 minutes ago, Artisi said:

And who are his master's, would you like to have a guess, or would plucking  a name from a hat be more accurate. 

I could tell you but you'd only get confused.