Few compromises at Brexit talks, minister says UK can survive without deal

[webfact]

Few compromises at Brexit talks, minister says UK can survive without deal

By Alastair Macdonald and Andrew MacAskill

 

Britain's Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union David Davis and European Union's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier hold a joint news conference after the round of Brexit talks in Brussels, Belgium July 20, 2017. REUTERS/Francois Lenoir

 

BRUSSELS/LONDON (Reuters) - The European Union and Britain offered few compromises at their first full round of Brexit talks which ended on Thursday, and the pound fell on worries that British ministers were prepared to walk away without a deal.

 

While negotiators laid out their disagreements in Brussels, Prime Minister Theresa May met company bosses at home, with one employers' group saying her government needed to engage in "sustained and structured" discussions with business over Brexit and avoid an abrupt departure from the bloc.

 

Separately, academics warned of "widespread, damaging and pervasive" costs if Britain failed to reach at least a transitional trade deal with the EU before its scheduled departure from the bloc less than two years from now.

 

At the European Commission, the negotiators laid out their opening positions in four days of talks that showed some common ground.

 

But they also confirmed differences over how to protect the future of expatriate citizens, while uncertainty persisted over a financial settlement and the future of the Irish border, which will become an external frontier for the EU in 2019.

 

Chief EU negotiator Michel Barnier said there was "a fundamental divergence" on how to protect the rights of EU citizens living in Britain and of Britons in the remaining 27 EU countries after Brexit.

 

He said European courts should guarantee citizens' rights after Brexit.

 

"Any reference to European rights imply their oversight by the Court of Justice of the European Union," he told a joint news conference with British Brexit Secretary David Davis.

 

Britain, however, says people voted in last year's Brexit referendum to end shared EU sovereignty, and its judges should therefore have jurisdiction.

 

Barnier also called for more clarity on the British position on the financial settlement. Brussels says London must pay a share of money the EU committed to spend when Britain was a member. The EU executive has floated a ballpark figure of about 60 billion euros (53.98 billion pounds).

 

Davis said the meetings in Brussels had provided "a lot to be positive about". But when asked if Britain would accept the principle of a net payment from London to Brussels - and not vice versa as some British ministers have suggested - he gave no direct answer.

 

Barnier called on Britain to clarify at the next round of talks in August how it would maintain a common travel area with the Republic of Ireland, which will remain in the EU.

 

Both sides have said they want to avoid reimposition of border controls between the republic and British-ruled Northern Ireland. However, so far neither has proposed a solution to an issue that remains sensitive almost two decades after a peace deal ended years of violence in the province.

 

EASY DEAL

 

British international trade minister Liam Fox said a trade deal with the EU should be "one of the easiest in human history" to reach, although his country could manage without one if necessary.

 

Sterling fell on concern about Brexit talks ending without a deal, something many economists have warned could cripple business activity. It dropped 1.4 percent on the day to an eight-month low against a rallying euro.

 

Fox, a eurosceptic who campaigned for Brexit last year, said a trade deal should be simple because the two sides already have similar regulatory rules and no tariffs.

 

But he told BBC radio that Britain could survive without a deal, in comments that contrast to finance minister Philip Hammond, who has said that no agreement with the largest trading bloc in the world would be a "very, very bad outcome".

 

Fox questioned how much damage would be done if Britain and the EU ended up trading on the basis of their agreements at the World Trade Organization, with no special access.

 

"People talk about the WTO (scenario) as if it would be the end of the world," he told Reuters in an interview. "But they forget that is how they currently trade with the United States, with China, with Japan, with India, with the Gulf, and our trading relationship is strong and healthy."

 

In Brussels, Davis played down talk of no agreement, saying that while Britain would never accept a "punishment deal", he saw no reason to think the EU would try to push such an outcome.

 

Divisions within May's government, including over Brexit, have spilled out since her Conservative Party lost its majority in a parliamentary election last month.

 

At the first meeting of a new business council, May stated her goal was "a smooth, orderly exit culminating in a comprehensive free trade deal with the EU, with a period of implementation in order to avoid any cliff-edges", a spokesman said.

 

Before the meeting, the Institute of Directors association reported that only 11 percent of its members had begun implementing Brexit contingency plans, while 30 percent were considering their options but had yet to act.

 

A separate group, the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC), called on the government to hold top-level talks with business "on the dozens of practical, real-world questions that firms face as a consequence of Brexit".

 

"The prospect of multiple, costly adjustments to trading conditions is a concern for many, so starting discussions on transition arrangements as soon as possible would go a long way to boost business confidence," BCC President Francis Martin said in a statement.

 

Major banks have begun to move staff from London to the continent so they can keep selling financial services to EU clients. The policy chief of the city's financial district has told Reuters that Britain must negotiate a staggered departure in the next few months or risk seeing thousands of finance jobs move abroad.

 

Anand Menon, a politics professor at King's College London who directs a Brexit research group, said a failure to reach a deal with the EU would be highly costly.

 

Nuclear plants might be unable to operate, airlines might be unable to fly and businesses would find it hard to enforce contracts, Menon's group, UK in a Changing Europe, said.

 

"Our findings show a chaotic Brexit would, at least in the short term, spawn a political mess, a legal morass and an economic disaster," he said.

 

(Additional reporting by Francesco Guarascio, Robert-Jan Bartunek, Elizabeth Miles, Philip Blenkinsop, David Milliken, Tom Miles, Costas Pitas and Patrick Graham; Writing by David Stamp; Editing by Timothy Heritage and Louise Ireland)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2017-07-21

[CutiePi]

The Brits should just walk...their fellow Europeans will soon be reminded of Churchill's dictum: "The Germans are either at your heal or at your throat."  The UK is well to be rid of the EU mess.

[alant]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

Anand Menon, a politics professor at King's College London who directs a Brexit research group, said a failure to reach a deal with the EU would be highly costly.

 

Nuclear plants might be unable to operate, airlines might be unable to fly and businesses would find it hard to enforce contracts, Menon's group, UK in a Changing Europe, said.

 

"Our findings show a chaotic Brexit would, at least in the short term, spawn a political mess, a legal morass and an economic disaster," he said.

I wonder why so many are so afraid of Brexit that they must speculate and sensationalise? 

[terryw]

The EU expect EU citizens living in the UK to be subject to EU laws. No other country in the world would accept that.

 

EU citizens in the UK should abide by UK laws just as Brits living in the EU should obey their laws.

 

With regard to the divorce fee the EU continue to live in fantasy land. The UK position is that the EU must prove that the UK has a legal obligation to pay. Apparently the EU are having problems supplying copies of the legal agreements.

 

The arrogance of the EU gives us little chance of a fair agreement.

[puck2]

 

 

3 hours ago, CutiePi said:

The Brits should just walk...their fellow Europeans will soon be reminded of Churchill's dictum: "The Germans are either at your heal or at your throat."  The UK is well to be rid of the EU mess.

Poor CutiePi, in what time are you living?

Churchill's words are from WW II.

 

Today: are he Germans „either at your heal or at your throat."

 

 

Happened just in Heidelberg. 2 teams, mixed of students of Cambridge and Heidelberg are directed by William an Kate.

 

They are on a good-will tour through Germany to show the people of the UK and Germany like each other, in spite of Brexit. They have received a cordial welcome in Germany.

 

BTW, concerning Brexit, it seems you don't know the difference between the EU and Germany.

It will be very interesting to judge in 2019  if "The UK is well to be rid of the EU mess."

 

Edited July 21, 2017 by puck2

[CutiePi]

21 minutes ago, puck2 said:

 

 

Poor CutiePi, in what time are you living?

Churchill's words are from WW II.

 

Today: are he Germans „either at your heal or at your throat."

 

 

Happened just in Heidelberg. 2 teams, mixed of students of Cambridge and Heidelberg are directed by William an Kate.

 

They are on a good-will tour through Germany to show the people of the UK and Germany like each other, in spite of Brexit. They have received a cordial welcome in Germany.

 

BTW, concerning Brexit, it seems you don't know the difference between the EU and Germany.

It will be very interesting to judge in 2019  if "The UK is well to be rid of the EU mess."

 

Maybe you should ask the Greeks, Spanish, Portuguese, and Italians where they think the Germans are in relation to their countries; and with the Brits gone, it won't be long when the French feel the vise again as well.

[billd766]

The negoriations are only 2 weeks into proper working and at this stage IMHO it is best to ignore the worst bit from both sides.

 

quote from the OP " Sterling fell on concern about Brexit talks ending without a deal, something many economists have warned could cripple business activity. It dropped 1.4 percent on the day to an eight-month low against a rallying euro."

 

Economists have been both wrong and right before.

 

Again the magic word is could, not would or definite will or anything definite.

 

2 weeks into a 2 year negotiation and the prohets of doom are already knocking the "deal" which is in its very early stages.

 

The UK team has only to report to the UK government but Barnier has to report to the EU parliament who in turn have to report to 27 other parliaments many of whom have the power to change things.

 

At this point nobody "KNOWS" what will happen.

 

One side puts a positive spin on it and the other side a negative spin. Who you believe depends on your attitude in life.

 

[goldenbrwn1]

1 hour ago, billd766 said:

One side puts a positive spin on it and the other side a negative spin. Who you believe depends on your attitude in life.

Spot on. 

[dunroaming]

6 hours ago, CutiePi said:

The Brits should just walk...their fellow Europeans will soon be reminded of Churchill's dictum: "The Germans are either at your heal or at your throat."  The UK is well to be rid of the EU mess.

Walking away without a deal would be economic suicide and even the dumb Brexit negotiators know that very well.  Are the EU calling the shots?  Yes of course they are, we are the ones leaving and they are not going to allow that without penalties to deter anyone else who will be watching this divorce closely.

 

The damage is done and it is now about damage limitation.  The repercussions will go on for years and the costs will be substantial! 

[Thongkorn]

8 hours ago, CutiePi said:

The Brits should just walk...their fellow Europeans will soon be reminded of Churchill's dictum: "The Germans are either at your heal or at your throat."  The UK is well to be rid of the EU mess.

 We the public want to walk, but our elected  people are letting us down ,  As for owing them money , i cannot remember them paying us any when we joined the Common market.

Edited July 21, 2017 by Thongkorn

[CutiePi]

32 minutes ago, Thongkorn said:

 We the public want to walk, but our elected  people are letting us down ,  As for owing them money , i cannot remember them paying us any when we joined the Common market.

If anything, the EU owes the UK money.

[dunroaming]

1 hour ago, Thongkorn said:

 We the public want to walk, but our elected  people are letting us down ,  As for owing them money , i cannot remember them paying us any when we joined the Common market.

Really?  Who are "we the public"?  Certainly not the 48% who voted to remain, nor most of the ones who didn't vote at all.  Nor many of the leave supporters who now realise it was a big mistake. Anyone who knows how economics work knows that you cannot walk away without selling the UK down the river.  Obviously "the public" feel that doing that is fine.  For those living in Thailand I am sure they are comfortable with whatever happens as they are immune from it apart from the fact that the pound would literally drop through the floor with a no deal Brexit.

 

For the rest of us in the real world it matters, especially anyone with children or grandchildren.  It is their future that is going to suffer the most. 

 

Actually I do agree with you that the elected people are letting the Brexit voters down.  You are right and immigration, a big issue, is clearly not going to get curbed as was promised at the time.  Today it is proposed that for at least two years after Brexit, EU citizens will be welcomed to come and live in Britain.  I suspect this will extended indefinitely.

 

 

Edited July 21, 2017 by dunroaming

[lungbing]

quote " For the rest of us in the real world it matters, especially anyone with children or grandchildren.  It is their future that is going to suffer the most."  unquote

 

Or they may benefit the most.

[dunroaming]

3 minutes ago, lungbing said:

quote " For the rest of us in the real world it matters, especially anyone with children or grandchildren.  It is their future that is going to suffer the most."  unquote

 

Or they may benefit the most.

How?

[vogie]

17 minutes ago, dunroaming said:

How?

I believe in years to come the Brexiters will be as famous as the Tolpuddle Martyrs, people will be thankful for the success that the UK has achieved through their great foresight. 

Edited July 21, 2017 by vogie

[dunroaming]

1 hour ago, vogie said:

I believe in years to come the Brexiters will be as famous as the Tolpuddle Martyrs, people will be thankful for the success that the UK has achieved through their great foresight. 

  Nice thought!

[Stargeezr]

Once Britain has finished wth Brexit, It can then go through its immigration files and send the new immigrants who came to the UK just to get on the dole packing.  That is part of why Britain wants to get control of the Island again.    Not having to pay Brussels the yearly fee to be in the EU is another good reason for Brexit.

Geezer

[nontabury]

20 hours ago, dunroaming said:

Really?  Who are "we the public"?  Certainly not the 48% who voted to remain, nor most of the ones who didn't vote at all.  Nor many of the leave supporters who now realise it was a big mistake. Anyone who knows how economics work knows that you cannot walk away without selling the UK down the river.  Obviously "the public" feel that doing that is fine.  For those living in Thailand I am sure they are comfortable with whatever happens as they are immune from it apart from the fact that the pound would literally drop through the floor with a no deal Brexit.

 

For the rest of us in the real world it matters, especially anyone with children or grandchildren.  It is their future that is going to suffer the most. 

 

Actually I do agree with you that the elected people are letting the Brexit voters down.  You are right and immigration, a big issue, is clearly not going to get curbed as was promised at the time.  Today it is proposed that for at least two years after Brexit, EU citizens will be welcomed to come and live in Britain.  I suspect this will extended indefinitely.

 

 

Many who voted leave now wish to remain. You've got to be joking. I personnally know none. Though I do know people who did vote remain, who now accept the democratic wish of the British people, they are also appalled at the antics of those Beurocrats in Brussels, who think they can bully the British.

[buick]

how can it be difficult to negiotiate the rights of EU citizens living in UK and vice versa ?  wouldn't the terms be the same for each side ?  

[rickudon]

I would hope that the outcome of Brexit is more than just survival. But currently, that looks about it. The 2020's will be like the great depression - where Britain's world trade fell 50% and, many claim for the UK started in 1918 and lasted 15 years. Britain never really recovered from that. Personally, I think it is the last death throws of the British Empire - certainly the Brexit rhetoric  has been very much 'Rule Britannia' and I think we will take up our rightful place in the world like other Empires before us - Austro-Hungarian, Ottoman, Mongolian Khanates and so on. In other words, a backwater.

[nontabury]

6 hours ago, rickudon said:

I would hope that the outcome of Brexit is more than just survival. But currently, that looks about it. The 2020's will be like the great depression - where Britain's world trade fell 50% and, many claim for the UK started in 1918 and lasted 15 years. Britain never really recovered from that. Personally, I think it is the last death throws of the British Empire - certainly the Brexit rhetoric  has been very much 'Rule Britannia' and I think we will take up our rightful place in the world like other Empires before us - Austro-Hungarian, Ottoman, Mongolian Khanates and so on. In other words, a backwater.

Another one, who forgets to mention the return of the plague, the 40% decrease in house prices. The list goes on.

[rickudon]

Ok Nontabury, so please tell me about the Golden Age which Brexit will bring about. Apart from less competition for minimum wage jobs, how will we be better off?

[Khun Han]

1 hour ago, rickudon said:

Ok Nontabury, so please tell me about the Golden Age which Brexit will bring about. Apart from less competition for minimum wage jobs, how will we be better off?

 

I'll answer for him. The real benefits will be seen when an economic downturn hits the EU hard. If we stay in, we're just another country, and the EU will follow policy that's best for the EU (and especially Germany). If we're out, we get to choose our own bespoke destiny.