Thailand steadily slipping behind its neighbours

[ozmeldo]

On 8/11/2017 at 6:54 PM, shanesox said:

Sounds like a rant from an uneducated person complaining about foreign teachers. A pretty pathetic and badly phrased rant at that!


Sent from my iPhone using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

Foreign teachers are under the same standards as Thai teachers. They must obtain a proper license and attend professional knowledge seminars and workshops to have it renewed. Its neither easy nor cheap.

 

Sounds like they have no degree, gave teaching a shot. The system rejected you on a number of grounds and now you are bitter.

Edited August 13, 2017 by ozmeldo

[Ricardo]

18 hours ago, midas said:

 

this guy was too early predicting this - but he is not wrong

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2013/11/04/thailands-bubble-economy-is-heading-for-a-1997-style-crash/2/#3ec5982e194d

Interesting article, thanks for the link.

 

But it's dated 4th November 2013, hence the references to some of the PTP-led coalition-governments' big-policies, and the lack of more-recent data.

 

It would be interesting to see an updated-version, particularly with the various graphs including 2013-2017 data, but I suspect that at least some of the key warnings, on the rising consumer-debt & the continuing budget-deficit, would still hold true.

[maewang99]

does Vietnam still have reeducation camps?

1. when they did.... they needed them.  there were always quite literate elites in Vietnam... with French as a 2nd language. now English as a second language.. in Vietnam.

2. when they did.. they at least were called what they were... or were by us outside the system as such..... reeducation camps... instead of labeling them as schools... which we do for Thailand....

but here, for most rural folks..... neither French nor English has ever been even close to being a 2nd language... even today...... in 2017 still true.... and so the priority is teaching Pasa Thai as an expert second language. 

but language and literacy is what connects us....  connecting with the rest of the world.... and sharing it with others after you read books. it's a social thing, not something you only do in isolation.  but it has to have some meat to it.

movies... TV shows.... Youtube can't do it. TED tries to do a book type thing with videos as they also try on TV shows as "documentaries"... but it's not at all as powerpacked as a book in one of your primary languages is. that is what produces a Trump and his base. it is what created Elon Musk... Bill Gates... and Marc Zuckerberg... for damn sure. I think it is all very plain.  



    

 

Edited August 13, 2017 by maewang99

[midas]

2 hours ago, Ricardo said:

Interesting article, thanks for the link.

 

But it's dated 4th November 2013, hence the references to some of the PTP-led coalition-governments' big-policies, and the lack of more-recent data.

 

It would be interesting to see an updated-version, particularly with the various graphs including 2013-2017 data, but I suspect that at least some of the key warnings, on the rising consumer-debt & the continuing budget-deficit, would still hold true.

 

Yes I realise the article is outdated but the only change I see since then is further decay and a further increase in debt.

[StayinThailand2much]

On 8/11/2017 at 5:49 AM, BasalBanality said:

Change comes from within.

Not if you cannot accept, or like to distort the facts:

 

"Banyong Pongpanich, executive chairman of Kiatnakin Bank, painted a bleak picture at a recent Chulalongkorn University seminar on the country’s economic outlook.

 

Due to the extended period of relatively low growth rates, Thailand’s GDP will likely be surpassed by Malaysia’s in the next few years. Currently, the Thai GDP is about US$400 billion, making it this region’s second-largest economy after Indonesia. The figure is far higher than Malaysia’s $296 billion, but that country’s annual growth rate is higher than Thailand’s..."

 

Mr. Pongpanich, why don't you tell your audience, that:

 

A) Malaysia has less than half the population number of Thailand, and at $296 billion GDP, Malaysia's GDP per capita is 1.5 times that of Thailand. 

 

 Thailand and Malaysia, in 1946, had about the same GDP per capita, meaning one country did it right, while the other did it wrong! One country preserved its "Thainess" in poverty, while the other achieved a living standard close to that of developed countries. One country opened its borders wide to foreign investment, while the other did it less so and in a reluctant way. The result is, that Thailand is falling more and more behind. It's a bit like the story of South Korea and North Korea. Which example will Thailand choose in the future?

Edited August 13, 2017 by StayinThailand2much

[nisakiman]

19 minutes ago, StayinThailand2much said:

One country opened its borders wide to foreign investment, while the other did it less so and in a reluctant way. The result is, that Thailand is falling more and more behind. It's a bit like the story of South Korea and North Korea. Which example will Thailand choose in the future?

 

Yes, I've always seen this attitude as Thailand's biggest Achilles Heel. There was a recent thread where Thailand was claiming to be one of the best countries in the world to start a business, citing low labour costs etc etc.

What tosh.

When the government refuses to allow foreigners to own property (and the security which comes with ownership); treats all prospective business owners like undesirable aliens by creating onerous visa requirements; and applies draconian restrictions on what type of business any foreigner is allowed to operate (which seems to apply to most types of business - there are very few business areas open to foreigners), then they are unlikely to attract foreign investment. They seem to think that allowing global companies like Toyota and Sharp etc to open factories here is sufficient, but the engine room of any economy is small to medium businesses, and without allowing that sector to flourish (and by flourish, I mean allowing small foreign businesses with big ideas to operate freely and compete with local business, thus raising the bar for all), there will never be any real growth from within. A closed shop doesn't expand it's customer base, it tends to go broke.

[StayinThailand2much]

On 8/11/2017 at 7:26 PM, observer90210 said:

All this GDP issue is just a big misunderstanding!!...

 

As TAT claims, things have never been so flourishing and tourists flock the country...especially at 5 hour immigration queues at major metro Thai airports...

Their argument probably is: "Growth in any sector of an economy is good, so the more the immigration queues grow, the better!". 

[Srikcir]

4 hours ago, StayinThailand2much said:

Mr. Pongpanich, why don't you tell your audience, that:

In the long-term, the Malaysia GDP per capita is projected to trend around 11,912.90 USD in 2020

vs

the Thailand GDP per capita is projected to trend around 6,392.83 USD in 2020.

https://tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/gdp-per-capita/forecast

Where would an investor want to be?

[midas]

40 minutes ago, Srikcir said:

In the long-term, the Malaysia GDP per capita is projected to trend around 11,912.90 USD in 2020

vs

the Thailand GDP per capita is projected to trend around 6,392.83 USD in 2020.

https://tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/gdp-per-capita/forecast

Where would an investor want to be?

What's also interesting in the Malaysia / Thailand comparison is the minimum wage rate.

Since January of this year in Thailand the minimum wage is 9300 baht per month whilst in Malaysia even though they had an increase last year, it's still only 1000 Ringit per month (equivalent to about 7725 baht per month.)

In my opinion this is just one other area in which Thailand has lost its competitive edge.

And when you compare wage rates in other neighbouring countries like Vietnam and Cambodia the difference is even more startling. Thai employees are not worth this premium.

Edited August 13, 2017 by midas

[Lunchbob]

Interesting discussion. I dont know much about politics or even how economies work, but I do see that the universities where I have taught and where I interact are terrible. I am sorry to criticise. And farming is dead as a business. Just no way to make money at it.

[melvinmelvin]

1 hour ago, midas said:

What's also interesting in the Malaysia / Thailand comparison is the minimum wage rate.

Since January of this year in Thailand the minimum wage is 9300 baht per month whilst in Malaysia even though they had an increase last year, it's still only 1000 Ringit per month (equivalent to about 7725 baht per month.)

In my opinion this is just one other area in which Thailand has lost its competitive edge.

And when you compare wage rates in other neighbouring countries like Vietnam and Cambodia the difference is even more startling. Thai employees are not worth this premium.

 

not worth the premium?

maybe so, but I'd argue that the underlying problem is not the "size" of the salaray, but rather the competence and initiative offered by those gettig the salary

Edited August 13, 2017 by melvinmelvin
typo

[cmsally]

8 hours ago, midas said:

 

Yes I realise the article is outdated but the only change I see since then is further decay and a further increase in debt.

You can see more of those statistics here.

Loans to private sector

 

There are loads more graphs and statistics, just Thailand from the list of countries

You can choose 5 or 10 yr options etc

[StayinThailand2much]

15 hours ago, midas said:

And when you compare wage rates in other neighbouring countries like Vietnam and Cambodia the difference is even more startling. Thai employees are not worth this premium.

I guess, that was one reason why, sadly, Carrefour left Thailand for India, besides not being allowed to expand. Returning to Thailand after being away for more than 2 years, I noticed Tesco-Lotus has more staff now, at check-outs and for other tasks: but, they are children, don't look older than 14, and in their school uniforms! Now, some companies have found a way to evade the high minimum wage in Thailand... 

 

There are more companies that have left, and IMHO more will in the future. But the Thais can always rely on their rice exports... 

Edited August 14, 2017 by StayinThailand2much

[Canceraid]

There is no more future in this country, over the last three years, I am seen more SMEs and micro-businesses collapse and close and also even the bigger corporations taking a longer time to pay to suppliers or are cutting down on marketing budgets, downsizing, etc. No one is really buying real estate despite whatever shit you read by so called real estate experts. Banks are not providing mortgage loans like before, many house-owners and condo-owners are defaulting on the loans and NPLs of all sorts at the banks are pilling up, retail stores ta most shopping malls are closing but you cannot see it as  mall operators like CPN (central) will open new shops featuring brands that are carried by their distrubutor entity ie CMG at no rental costs (so how they are servicing their bank loans for the mall construction etc ...god knows?). All the rich farangs expats and even rich Asians etc have all moved away and many homes and condos in Pattaya nd Chiang Mai are now on the market cheaply but no movement as no one is really buying. Only thing sustaining the country at the moment is tourism but only the cheap charlies are coming now from China, India, Russia and also the cheap farangs. Most of these toursist do not stay ta hotels but use AirBNB so hotels are also suffering. What future in thailand with their ever changing immigration rules etc. I am already in the midst of leaving and just hope that the country will really spiral downwards as the majority of thais are simply complacent. (PS: Only people doing well is the Army, Beer Chang  and Singha , CP Groups)

[Maverell]

On 11/08/2017 at 10:08 AM, Nowisee said:

It's nice not having to rely on this economy.  When it gets too crazy, I'll just move on.  

Not need to stay here.  More happening in Malaysia, Vietnam and Philippines anyway.

Agreed. Two of my mates have already gone to Vietnam. 

[Lunchbob]

There is 1 thing Thailand can do that will reignite their economy in a very short time. Very simple thing that could be done in an afternoon. Tourism, agrixulture, maxhinery, land, export would boom.

[MaxYakov]

Peace an Order <> Peace and Prosperity

[billd766]

On 11/08/2017 at 9:10 AM, ChrisY1 said:

It's blatantly clear that this junta (and past military of course), don't really have great interest in the people.

There's nothing unusual about this, military rulers historically have always been there for self benefit and the current generals are no different.

The focus on activists, politicians, Sect 112 and etc.  is so concentrated, that management of the country has been almost ignored.

Incompetence, nepotism, corruption....seem to be the current juntas creed!

 

quote "Incompetence, nepotism, corruption....seem to be the current juntas creed!"

 

PMs since 2001.

 

Thaksin Shinawatra   Feb 2001 to April 2006

Chitchai Wannasathit April and May 2006 (acting PM)

Thaksin Shinawatra  May to September 2006 (caretaker PM)

Sonti Boonyaratglin September to October 2006 (Army)

Surayud Chulanont October 2006 to January 2008 (Army)

Samak Sunderavej January to September 2008 (removed by the courts)

Somchai Wongsawat September to December 2008 (removed by the courts) (also Thaksin's brother in law)

Chaovarat Chanweerakul 2 weeks in December 2008 could not form a coalition government

Abhisit Vejjajiva December 2008 August 2011 lost the election

Yingluck Shinawatra 2011 to May 2014 (removed by the courts) (also Thaksin's sister)

Niwatthamrong Boonsongpaisan May 2014 caretaker PM for 2 weeks

Prayuth Chan O Cha Army current PM

 

Nothing to do with nepotismreally but Thaksin was PM twice, his BIL Somchai once, his sister Yingluck once. His good friend Samak was also there.

 

So over nearly 16 years Thaksin and his surrogates were PMs for over 10 of them and you are complaining about Nepotism.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Eric Loh]

49 minutes ago, billd766 said:

 

quote "Incompetence, nepotism, corruption....seem to be the current juntas creed!"

 

PMs since 2001.

 

Thaksin Shinawatra   Feb 2001 to April 2006

Chitchai Wannasathit April and May 2006 (acting PM)

Thaksin Shinawatra  May to September 2006 (caretaker PM)

Sonti Boonyaratglin September to October 2006 (Army)

Surayud Chulanont October 2006 to January 2008 (Army)

Samak Sunderavej January to September 2008 (removed by the courts)

Somchai Wongsawat September to December 2008 (removed by the courts) (also Thaksin's brother in law)

Chaovarat Chanweerakul 2 weeks in December 2008 could not form a coalition government

Abhisit Vejjajiva December 2008 August 2011 lost the election

Yingluck Shinawatra 2011 to May 2014 (removed by the courts) (also Thaksin's sister)

Niwatthamrong Boonsongpaisan May 2014 caretaker PM for 2 weeks

Prayuth Chan O Cha Army current PM

 

Nothing to do with nepotismreally but Thaksin was PM twice, his BIL Somchai once, his sister Yingluck once. His good friend Samak was also there.

 

So over nearly 16 years Thaksin and his surrogates were PMs for over 10 of them and you are complaining about Nepotism.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Just that the difference is all those ex PMs were chosen and given the mandate by the people. They know who they are and happy to give them the votes. Junta nepotism and cronyism are exact polar opposite. Oh, they not accountable to any voters and wrapped themselves around an impenetrable amnesty. 

[zzaa09]

20 hours ago, Lunchbob said:

Interesting discussion. I dont know much about politics or even how economies work, but I do see that the universities where I have taught and where I interact are terrible. I am sorry to criticise. And farming is dead as a business. Just no way to make money at it.

Well, there certainly isn't profitable or incentive to prosper in farming when your whole world is basically called and controlled by elitist government and aggie mafia consortiums, as they're the only entity profiting.

 

Given freehold and an open, free, and competitive market might be a completely different scenario.

[zzaa09]

1 hour ago, Eric Loh said:

Just that the difference is all those ex PMs were chosen and given the mandate by the people. They know who they are and happy to give them the votes. Junta nepotism and cronyism are exact polar opposite. Oh, they not accountable to any voters and wrapped themselves around an impenetrable amnesty. 

Yet, most still aren't connecting the dots - nor have the ability to comprehend the other influence.

 

Most remain in a slumbered state, as it has been for decades.

[FritsSikkink]

On ‎11‎/‎08‎/‎2017 at 6:40 AM, inThailand said:

I concur, nothing positive is happening here and no real progess is on the horizon. Thailand is getting left behind in a world they just can not compete with.

Utter nonsense:

 

The US economy expanded an annualized 2.6%       https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth

The British economy grew 1.7 percent year-on-year       https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-growth-annual

The Australian economy grew by 1.7 percent through the year       https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/gdp-growth-annual

Thailand’s GDP expanded 3.3 percent from a year earlier       https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/gdp-growth-annual

[Yinglove]

4 hours ago, billd766 said:

 

quote "( Remember that the Thaksin administration had repaid the countries borrowings from the IMF early.  The only country to have done so).

 

Actually he only repaid the last installment. And no he did NOT repay it with his own money.

 

By far the largest amount was repaid from 1997 to 2001 by the Democrat government under Chuan Leek Pai.

 

Thaksin was a member of the governments who caused the crash and before the Democrats put in an austerity budget for 4 years to repay that debt.

 

The world economy was booming then right up to 2008 when it crashed.

 

Nice try at diversion and don't lets silly things like facts get in the way will you.

 

Talking about mismanaged economics, what did you think of Thaksin's scheme to corner the world market in rice? Sound economic plan to buy high, sell even higher, reap massive profits and hold the world to ransom. How did that work out by the way?

What a load of garbage.

The graph below shows that debts peaked in 2000 and repayments kicked in 2001.

Guess who was PM then???

[metisdead]

Off topic posts and replies have been removed. 

[billd766]

7 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

Just that the difference is all those ex PMs were chosen and given the mandate by the people. They know who they are and happy to give them the votes. Junta nepotism and cronyism are exact polar opposite. Oh, they not accountable to any voters and wrapped themselves around an impenetrable amnesty. 

 

Actually they were NOT chosen by the people but by the owner of the party, Thaksin Shinawatra.

 

True that people voted for them but the choice of candidates were limited.

 

That is still called nepotism where I come from.

 

As for an amnesty, isn't that what Yingluck was trying to do in the dark of the night for Thaksin before they got caught>

 

 

[candide]

6 hours ago, FritsSikkink said:

Utter nonsense:

 

The US economy expanded an annualized 2.6%       https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth

The British economy grew 1.7 percent year-on-year       https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-growth-annual

The Australian economy grew by 1.7 percent through the year       https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/gdp-growth-annual

Thailand’s GDP expanded 3.3 percent from a year earlier       https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/gdp-growth-annual

You need to compare what is comparable. Thailand's GDP growth is  less than half of that of comparable countries (i.e. ASEAN) since the Junta went into power. It is alqp expected to remain so for the next years accordind to the IMF.

[Thechook]

The army should stick to marching and stop trying to run a country which they are totally unqualified to do.  Prayuth and his soldiers are so far out of their league and totally clueless and Prayuth is so full of admiration for himself he can't see how incompetent he is at running a country.

[inThailand]

22 minutes ago, Thechook said:

The army should stick to marching and stop trying to run a country which they are totally unqualified to do.  Prayuth and his soldiers are so far out of their league and totally clueless and Prayuth is so full of admiration for himself he can't see how incompetent he is at running a country.

Yup! His biggest success is getting Lam Yai to reduce her twerking from lucky number 9 to 3.

[FritsSikkink]

8 hours ago, candide said:

You need to compare what is comparable. Thailand's GDP growth is  less than half of that of comparable countries (i.e. ASEAN) since the Junta went into power. It is alqp expected to remain so for the next years accordind to the IMF.

The other countries in Asean are way behind in GDP, so it is easier to grow in percentage while in $ they are the same or less.

[Srikcir]

1 hour ago, FritsSikkink said:

The other countries in Asean are way behind in GDP, so it is easier to grow in percentage while in $ they are the same or less.

It is also true that given Thailand's lower GDP growth rate and attendant economic risks from political uncertainty, Thailand lost about 70% of its foreign investors during Prayut's regime. Where do they go? To the other ASEAN countries realizing higher GDP growth rates with less risk. That makes Thailand less competitive.