The crazy Yingluck scenario few people want

[webfact]

OPINION

The crazy Yingluck scenario few people want

By Tulsathit Taptim 
The Nation

 

Let’s hope that whoever is writing Thailand’s political script is not over-inspired in the next seven days. Otherwise, we may be in for a big anticlimax after days of trying to figure out where Yingluck Shinawatra is, who helped her flee, which escape route she took and whether her clan might actually be in cahoots with the military government.

A cautious scriptwriter would have Yingluck found guilty in absentia on September 27. The ruling would be controversial, all right, but at least it won’t change much. She will continue to be in exile. Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha will continue to be angry, genuinely or otherwise, when asked if his security forces intentionally looked the other way in the lead-up to August 25 and the scheduled court verdict. Thailand’s political divide will continue in all its bitterness.

 

A verdict of “not guilty” would of course be a bombshell. Would she remain in exile? If she wants to come back, what should she say? Should Prayut continue to look angry? Or should he look mad? Or should he laugh? And what will happen to Thailand’s political divide? Can we handle another twist?

 

A “guilty” verdict will in fact serve both sides of the polarity. One camp can say she’s a heroine fleeing political persecution, while the other can call her a cowardly crook running from justice. “Not guilty” will leave a sour taste in all mouths. “See? She’s innocent!” one side will gleefully declare. “And courageous, too, don’t you think,” will come the sarcastic retort.

 

Yingluck is almost certainly praying for a “guilty” ruling. Before her vanishing act, the former prime minister and her defence tried everything they could to discredit the trial, branding it a conspiracy to put her in jail. Which means a “not guilty” verdict will leave her looking pathetically paranoid, her decision to flee a laughable act that she will never live down.

 

So, a “guilty” verdict will confirm her existing reputation in the eyes of both admirers and haters – as either a hero or a crook. “Not guilty” would threaten to turn her into a clown. Which of these does she want to be?

 

Her brother Thaksin won’t be much better off after a “not guilty” ruling. His “philosophical” tweet following the August 25 no-show will be something he wants to forget. The Montesquieu quote he used – “There’s no crueller tyranny than that which is perpetuated under the shield of law and in the name of justice” – is redundant unless his sister is convicted.

 

But the biggest beneficiary of a “not guilty” verdict could be Prayut. For one thing, he could fling back the reporters’ accusations in their faces. “Do you still think I assisted her flight?” he will yell at them. “I guess that was a smart thing to do, eh? Helping an innocent suspect escape who was going to be cleared by the court anyway?”

 

But the conspiracy theorists would of course come up with alternative explanations. Scenario one: Prayut fooled Yingluck into thinking she would end up in jail, making her flee and look bad in the process. Scenario two: Prayut told Yingluck to run first and return later because he knew of the impending verdict and wanted her escape as a distraction. Here, Prayut let Yingluck know she was going to be laughed at, but only by those who don’t like her that much anyway.

 

Actually, a “not guilty” verdict wouldn’t have been much of a bombshell had it been delivered on August 25. Some analysts saw a plausible compromise in punishing former commerce minister Boonsong Teriyapirom while sparing Yingluck. The anti-Shinawatra camp would gain satisfaction in the confirmation of massive corruption in the rice-pledging scheme whereas the pro-Shinawatra side would be happy to see Yingluck ruled innocent.

 

Having found Boonsong guilty, the Supreme Court’s section for politicians has made clear its view of the rice-pledging operations. But the judges kept their cards close to their chests regarding what they think of Yingluck’s role in the scandal. This means that they could now decide either that corruption and financial damages are something beyond the control of those at the policy level, or that she cannot escape responsibility.

 

The chances of a “not guilty” verdict are slim, but they are not zero. Thai politics is known for story lines whose twists out-do even the best thrillers. In a week’s time we will find out whether our political saga continues with the same old problems, or whether the scriptwriter up there throws us some new ones.

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/opinion/30327187

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2017-09-20

[darksidedog]

The whole thing is a complete fiasco from start to finish. Given that none of them can be trusted I tend to view the whole thing as a kind of mafia soap opera, with truly amazing twists to the plot every week.

[seajae]

the fact she did a runner says it all, claimed innocence and would defend it but never intended too. She has lied to all her supporters once again, trouble is they are not smart enough to realize they are just being strung along for the shins political pleasure, they actually think they are important to them. No mater which way the decision on her goes she has shown that all that is important to the shins is themselves and their money

[nausea]

 

47 minutes ago, webfact said:

 

Let’s hope that whoever is writing Thailand’s political script is not over-inspired in the next seven days.

 

Is that a euphemism for  the Yingluck judgement?

[Samui Bodoh]

This "trial" has cemented Thailand's place as a third-world banana republic.

 

A PM, overthrown in a coup, is put on trial by the coup government for 'negligence'. The prosecuting agency (NACC) which has cases against the yellow/green coalition going back to the mid 2000's, drops everything to prosecute. A 'government' with section 44 powers 'says' all will be fair.

 

The 'verdict' is unimportant. It will solve nothing; it will be a mere 'talking point' for one side trying to put a sheen of legitimacy on their actions.

 

The world is laughing.

 

What a waste...

[trainman34014]

Prayut will continue to be angry, bad tempered, irritable, yell at people, point fingers at people and be mad no matter what the verdict is because he is a Thai man, and by enlarge that's what all Thai men in Officialdom do, as in their minds they are far superior than anyone else in Thailand's Parallel World  !

[Mango Bob]

Why has no one come up with the theory that she is dead?

[Thailand]

And it is of course it is not beyond the bounds of possibility that the verdict could have been determined by where she was at the time of handing it down?

[alant]

1 hour ago, Mango Bob said:

Why has no one come up with the theory that she is dead?

I think I asked the same or if she has been abducted soon after the news broke of her absence but my question was dismissed as nonsense. I think you have a valid question.

BUT

I would imagine Mr T would have made it known, keeping it from him may be difficult.

Edited September 20, 2017 by alant

[rkidlad]

1 minute ago, alant said:

I think I asked the same or if she has been abducted soon after the news broke of her absence but my question was dismissed as nonsense. I think you have a valid question.

Thaksin has tweeted a couple of times. If he didn't know where she was, I'm sure we'd have read something. It would be too hard to kill her and not have people talk. 

[yellowboat]

2 hours ago, seajae said:

the fact she did a runner says it all, claimed innocence and would defend it but never intended too. She has lied to all her supporters once again, trouble is they are not smart enough to realize they are just being strung along for the shins political pleasure, they actually think they are important to them. No mater which way the decision on her goes she has shown that all that is important to the shins is themselves and their money

Are coups legal ?  Is all that is said to be legal fair and just ?  Would not be so quick to pass judgment those who are judged by those who know no repercussions for their actions.  

[yellowboat]

She is probably so far from Thailand she is able to hide in plain site. Or she is at some gated, spacious home

[Baerboxer]

3 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

This "trial" has cemented Thailand's place as a third-world banana republic.

 

A PM, overthrown in a coup, is put on trial by the coup government for 'negligence'. The prosecuting agency (NACC) which has cases against the yellow/green coalition going back to the mid 2000's, drops everything to prosecute. A 'government' with section 44 powers 'says' all will be fair.

 

The 'verdict' is unimportant. It will solve nothing; it will be a mere 'talking point' for one side trying to put a sheen of legitimacy on their actions.

 

The world is laughing.

 

What a waste...

 

Only she wasn't overthrown in a coup as she'd previously been removed from caretaker PM office by a court for an illegal act.

 

But don't let facts and reality get in the way of a good story.

 

Third world - certainly for letting a convicted crook on the run install his sister has PM and then openly run things through her.

[JAG]

3 hours ago, Mango Bob said:

Why has no one come up with the theory that she is dead?

It has, I am sure crossed more than a few minds.

[Baerboxer]

3 hours ago, Mango Bob said:

Why has no one come up with the theory that she is dead?

 

Because it's ridiculous.

 

Do you think Thaksin, the Shins, their clan and media machine would be quiet if they didn't know where she was?

[JAG]

2 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Because it's ridiculous.

 

Do you think Thaksin, the Shins, their clan and media machine would be quiet if they didn't know where she was?

I have wondered whether she is being detained by the junta.

The silence from Thaksin and his media machine may be a precondition for her remaining alive. Not that ridiculous really...

Effectively a hostage. I don't think, in the absence of any evidence either way, that it can be dismissed out of hand.

[Artisi]

3 hours ago, Mango Bob said:

Why has no one come up with the theory that she is dead?

Give them a chance, may well be sleeping or involved with some other nonsense elsewhere ?

[AGareth2]

3 hours ago, Mango Bob said:

Why has no one come up with the theory that she is dead?

it would be a grave mistake to kill her

[Raymonddiaz]

3 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

This "trial" has cemented Thailand's place as a third-world banana republic.

 

A PM, overthrown in a coup, is put on trial by the coup government for 'negligence'. The prosecuting agency (NACC) which has cases against the yellow/green coalition going back to the mid 2000's, drops everything to prosecute. A 'government' with section 44 powers 'says' all will be fair.

 

The 'verdict' is unimportant. It will solve nothing; it will be a mere 'talking point' for one side trying to put a sheen of legitimacy on their actions.

 

The world is laughing.

 

What a waste...

the same in Egypt but the west has other priorities...

[Tatsujin]

4 hours ago, seajae said:

the fact she did a runner says it all, claimed innocence and would defend it but never intended too. She has lied to all her supporters once again, trouble is they are not smart enough to realize they are just being strung along for the shins political pleasure, they actually think they are important to them. No mater which way the decision on her goes she has shown that all that is important to the shins is themselves and their money

Or perhaps she could see that it was a kangaroo court, that the verdict was already set in stone, that there was zero chance of a fair trial, that facts or evidence are not considered, and that the eventual preordained sentence would be way out of proportion to the actual crime.

 

In those circumstances I'd have legged it too.

[Eric Loh]

I still don't get the reason as to why she refused to flee up to the court day. She could have avoid all those highly charged court hearings by fleeing earlier. Perhaps she was given a message by someone in a very high position that even the military can't refused and gave her a safe passage. The atmosphere is so charged up and feelings were fragile and could have created unnecessary tension leading to October. Part of the deal was she keep quiet until after October. Someone don't trust the military to handle the situation appropriately. 

[Artisi]

17 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

I still don't get the reason as to why she refused to flee up to the court day. She could have avoid all those highly charged court hearings by fleeing earlier. Perhaps she was given a message by someone in a very high position that even the military can't refused and gave her a safe passage. The atmosphere is so charged up and feelings were fragile and could have created unnecessary tension leading to October. Part of the deal was she keep quiet until after October. Someone don't trust the military to handle the situation appropriately. 

And what has October got to do with YL and the court case. 

[champers]

Based on the fact that neither Yingluk or Thaksin have confirmed her whereabouts, how about this scenario:

Yingluk turns up to court to receive its verdict. She is currently hiding out / recuperating in Thailand, not abroad.

Who would have egg all over their faces if this happened?

[peterpop]

I don't know who wrote this but I think he or she suffers from an overactive imagination.  Who really cares about the ''Legal Decision''.  The System is broken whatever words are spoken they are without authority.

 

[joecoolfrog]

5 hours ago, seajae said:

the fact she did a runner says it all, claimed innocence and would defend it but never intended too. She has lied to all her supporters once again, trouble is they are not smart enough to realize they are just being strung along for the shins political pleasure, they actually think they are important to them. No mater which way the decision on her goes she has shown that all that is important to the shins is themselves and their money

Thank goodness Thailand is lucky enough to have a constant supply of benevolent Generals to save them from tyrany.

[tore stenberg]

where is she

 

[habanero]

5 hours ago, Mango Bob said:

Why has no one come up with the theory that she is dead?

I believe she is still in Thailand. After Prayut is overthrown in the next coup which will probably happen while he is in Washington next month. Yingluck will take her rightful place again as PM. 

 Probably not, but makes for a great story-line..........................

[Centrum]

2 hours ago, yellowboat said:

She is probably so far from Thailand she is able to hide in plain site. Or she is at some gated, spacious home

I guess she's in the Dusit Thani Hotel having another love session with an extremely wealthy real estate mogul.

[wakeupplease]

6 hours ago, darksidedog said:

The whole thing is a complete fiasco from start to finish. Given that none of them can be trusted I tend to view the whole thing as a kind of mafia soap opera, with truly amazing twists to the plot every week.

Na, cowshed story is more like it.

[sawadee1947]

absolutely right view.