Will Shinawatras stir the political pot from abroad?

[rooster59]

Will Shinawatras stir the political pot from abroad?

By Jintana Panyaarvudh 
Kasamakorn Chanwanpen 
The Nation

 

File photo: Former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra.

 

SIBLINGS Thaksin and Yingluck, fugitives from justice, will reunite somewhere abroad. But will they join hands to turn the world against Thailand, or emerge as a threat to the junta? Jintana Panyaarvudh and Kasamakorn Chanwanpen analyse the possibilities.

 

THE DUST has yet to settle on the dramatic escape of former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra late last month and the whole speculation about her whereabouts. All leads point to the former PM joining her brother in exile in either Dubai or London.

 

Prime Minister General Prayut Chan-o-cha revealed on Thursday that according to information he had received Yingluck was in Dubai. 

 

Dubbed “The City of Superlatives”, Dubai was not a surprise choice for Yingluck to escape the Thai justice system. Her brother, former PM Thaksin, has a villa in the Gulf city whose stunning growth from a sleepy port to a world-famous business crossroads within a single generation has been a spectacular success story.

 

Thaksin chose Dubai as his home base in 2008 because of its convenience, Isra News Agency quoted from “Conversations with Thaksin”, a book written by American Tom Plate, who interviewed him in 2010.

 

Thaksin was sentenced in absentia to two years in jail in 2008 for conflict of interest during his five years in office. 

 

The residence is located in the exclusive Emirates Hills, a gated community in Dubai named after Beverly Hills. Emirates Hills is largely home to the expatriate community of Dubai, as it consists of the first freehold properties that were sold in the city.

 

 

The 68-year-old former PM told the author he likes Dubai as he feel like he is at the centre of the world. From there, he can travel around the world and as it is not too far from Thailand, his families and friends can also visit him.

 

The book described his house as a seven-bedroom, two-storey-plus-basement villa with adequate room to accommodate the occasional visiting relative.

 

During the past decade, Thaksin has always welcomed visits from his family, many of his former MPs and supporters at his villa. 

 

If government information is to be believed, this is the second time the Shinawatra siblings had reunited after his sister was toppled by the coup in May 2014.

 

The elder brother and sister reunited in July 2014 for the first time in Paris for Thaksin’s 65th birthday celebrations. Yingluck was permitted by the junta to go on a 20-day trip to Europe. 

 

But it is believed Thailand’s first female prime minister may not be too comfortable in the heat of the Gulf country where temperatures fluctuate between 10 degrees Celsius in winter to 48 degrees in the scorching summer. Yingluck may prefer to spend her time in London, which has a climate very different from Dubai.

 

CNN and Reuters reported that Yingluck is now in London and seeking asylum there, although the government contradicted that report. Speculation that Yingluck may choose the UK for life in exile makes sense, as Thaksin owns a manor in Surrey, near London, worth more than Bt260 million.

 

Recently, Thaksin’s daughters Pintongta and Paetongtarn posted their photos with their father in London since September 15 on social media. However, there is still no sign of Yingluck.

 

Irrespective of which city the two siblings set up their base in, their political future appears dim. 

 

The door for a political comeback seems to have been almost shut on the two siblings after a new organic law on the criminal procedures for political office holders came into effect last Friday.

 

If the 50-year-old Yingluck wants to appeal against her five-year imprisonment sentence for negligence in preventing corruption and irregularities in her government rice-pledging scheme, she will be required to appear in court in person. An arrest warrant has been issued for her after her conviction.

 

The law also affects Thaksin as it allows the prosecution to ask the court to bring four cases related to him for trial in the court in absentia and there would also be no statute of limitations for the cases.

 

Irrespective of whether they choose Dubai or London, the real question is whether the Shinawatra siblings, who lie at the centre of Thailand’s political conflict, would together make active political moves from abroad. Thaksin used the strategy of “turning the world against Thailand” in his initial years in self-exile.

 

Critics believe the two siblings have limitations in making moves to attack the junta.

 

Titipol Phakdeewanich, dean of the Faculty of Political Science at Ubon Ratchathani University, said that the recent remarks of Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan seemed to suggest there was a deal between the Shinawatras and the military under which Yingluck would not to make any political moves.

 

“In the current political circumstances, the power and influence of the Shinawatras are limited by the military and the ongoing anti-Shinawatra sentiment, especially among the Thai middle class,” Titipol said.

 

Chamnan Chanruang, a Chiang-Mai-based political scientist, said Yingluck may avoid being as direct and hard as her brother, as she might be seeking asylum.

 

Usually, the country providing political asylum would bar involvement in political activity during stay in that country.

 

“Yingluck has been very much loved thanks to her sweetness and humility,” he said.

 

Only a slight move on the social network could draw a lot of sympathy for her, which would be uncomfortable for the coup-installed regime, Chamnan added.

 

Thaksin had once confirmed that he had applied for asylum in Britain, but dropped the plan as it would have restricted his freedom to speak out. Aside from that, Chamnan also pointed to the Krung Thai Bank money laundering case involving Thaksin’s son Panthongtae.

The fact that Thaksin’s son was currently being probed could deter the siblings from attacking the junta, he said.

 

However, Titipol said the Shinawatras would continue to maintain their relations with their international allies in order to pressure Thailand to return to democracy, despite the alteration of US foreign policy stance under the Trump administration.

 

“I don’t think the Shinawatras will fade away from Thai politics in the long term. Once democracy is resumed, there will be room for the Shinawatras to make their political moves,” Titipol said.

 

A top Pheu Thai Party figure, who is a close aide of Yingluck, told The Nation that Yingluck could end up anywhere. “International leaders love her. Her image [when she travelled abroad for international meeting] in their eyes is a strong person,” he said.

 

“There are more people who love PM Yingluck than those who hate her. She does not have to go along with Khun Thaksin. Both can travel separately,” the source said.

 

Her supporters are waiting for her first remarks. “I think once she settles down, she would explain her decision. She is a former prime minister, so she cannot disappear forever,” the Pheu Thai figure said.

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/politics/30328120

 

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2017-10-01

[bristolgeoff]

of course she will,once she knows she is safe.just like big brother,they will make many phone calls back to thailand.both of them should have the guts to do the time and then they are free to do what they want outside any government involvement

[Get Real]

Why not? Let´s use a well known expression "Until boredom overtook us"

[Samui Bodoh]

I suspect that we won't hear much from them in the immediate short term, for the reasons mentioned of asylum application and family under "investigation".

 

And I doubt that either will ever return to Thailand; once a person goes into exile, it is very, very rare that they return.

 

But will they speak and contribute to the Thai political debate? Of course! They are both former Prime Ministers, and former PM s always have a voice. Further, they "left" mainly due to military involvement in politics, that means they will have a voice forever. It amuses me that the 'greens' and 'yellows' will have to hear it for the rest of their lives .

 

 

[ezzra]

Although the Shins enjoy a wide base of support among the masses, mainly

because in their times money flowed free and farmers and the poor were 

looked after very well on the country's dwindling reserves and  on empty 

promises, as far for stiring the pot, let them try, it will cost billions with no

guarantee of results.... 

 

[petedk]

I remember when Thaksin first went to the Uk in "exile". He said he was too old for politics and therefore finished with politics.

 

I can imagine Yingluck will make some kind of similar remark

[craigt3365]

4 hours ago, rooster59 said:

Will Shinawatras stir the political pot from abroad?

Yes.  Remember when Thaksin promised to stay out of politics?  Right....

[Jeremy50]

Who cares? Best forgotten about, they are both corrupt, very dishonest and not particularly clever. 

[Dexlowe]

Such a poorly written article. It's about 15 pars in before it even begins to address the point of the story - it's meandering background until then. The rest is fairly shallow, so we're not getting much of an idea of their state of mind, nor of the obstacles stacked against them.

[steven100]

18 minutes ago, Jeremy50 said:

Who cares? Best forgotten about, they are both corrupt, very dishonest and not particularly clever. 

correct ....  who care's .... just forget and move on.

[steven100]

stop stirring the pot & regurgitating the same old question ......

 

get over it  !!

[ehs818]

To answer the question posed: "Will Shinawatras stir the political pot from abroad"?

 

The short answer is:  Yes

 

The long answer is:  Of course.

[steven100]

3 minutes ago, sirineou said:

I feel sorry for Australia if their "high up in government" officials analyze a situation in such terms.

It's one friend ... not 'officials' so pls don't put words that aren't correct in.   ... one says what he thinks. no PC BS.

Edited October 1, 2017 by steven100

[sirineou]

3 minutes ago, steven100 said:

It's one friend ... not 'officials' so pls don't put words that aren't correct in.   ... one says what he thinks. no PC BS.

Oh good , if it's only one then it's ok. 

[greenchair]

Now that the dems and the forces have got rid of the only opposition, let them eat cake and enjoy. 

 lets see the dems try to run the government with the forces ordering them around. It's only a matter of time before they beg those shinawatras back. 

In the mean time everyone should sit back and enjoy the show. 

Thailand will not let the shinawatras leave politics. 

[Yann55]

10 hours ago, rooster59 said:

However, Titipol said the Shinawatras would continue to maintain their relations with their international allies in order to pressure Thailand to return to democracy

 

Purrr leeeeease .... 'return' to democracy ? Thailand never was a functioning democracy !

 

Elections are not what define democracy, anyway, and yes, they are indispensable in such a system but it's just a technical point, and if the other conditions for democracy are not met, elections become a mere farce. Worse, they actually serve to blanket what really goes on, lending a veneer of legitimacy over every possible kind of abuse.

 

What defines democracy is first and foremost the separation of powers (legislative, executive, judicial) as  theorized by philosophers of the 18th century, especially Montesquieu, whom Thaksin ironically quoted recently. He (Thaksin) of all people knows full well that the separation of powers never worked in Thailand, which makes his particular form of cynicism quite revolting.

 

Not just a Thai problem, either, as it should be noted that in Western countries which proudly call themselves democracies, the democratic principles are actually becoming less and less real, like labels on an empty bottle, as the system is more and more efficiently hijacked by big and powerful corporations - and behind them, individuals. These cancerous monsters own the economic fabric and the mass-media, who in turn manipulate the public.

 

Interestingly the public's only way to respond is by ceasing to vote, whereby 'ordinary' people show that their gullibility is not fathomless. The level of abstention is a clear indicator of how disfunctional our 'democracies' really are, and not surprisingly, that level is highest in the US, where the political game is rigged beyond recognition.

 

 

Edited October 1, 2017 by Yann55

[sjaak327]

21 minutes ago, Yann55 said:

 

Purrr leeeeease .... 'return' to democracy ? Thailand never was a functioning democracy !

 

Elections are not what define democracy, anyway, and yes, they are indispensable in such a system but it's just a technical point, and if the other conditions for democracy are not met, elections become a mere farce. Worse, they actually serve to blanket what really goes on, lending a veneer of legitimacy over every possible kind of abuse.

 

What defines democracy is first and foremost the separation of powers (legislative, executive, judicial) as  conceived by philosophers of the 18th century, especially Montesquieu, whom Thaksin ironically quoted recently. He (Thaksin) of all people knows that separation of powers never worked in Thailand, which makes his particular form of cynicism quite revolting.

 

Not just a Thai problem, either, as it should be noted that in Western countries which proudly call themselves democracies, the democratic principles are actually becoming less and less real, like labels on an empty bottle, as the system is more and more efficiently hijacked by big and powerful corporations - and behind them, individuals. These big shots own the mass-media, who in turn manipulate the public.

 

Interestingly the public's only way to respond is by ceasing to vote, whereby 'ordinary' people show that their gullibility is not fathomless. The level of abstention is a clear indicator of how disfunctional our 'democracies' really are, and not surprisingly, that level is highest in the US, where the political game is rigged beyond recognition.

 

 

Thailand most certainly had a functioning democracy. It might not have been perfect, but it did function. And there certainly was some sort of separation of power. That separation does not exist right now of course. Heck even the NLA is just a rubber stamp parliament appointed by the same person they are supposed to be checking. 

 

 

Personally I think reacting by ceasing to vote to be the dumbest thing one could do. And luckily in many European democracies this does not happen. That it does happen in the US, IMHO is a different matter. Sheer disinterest combined with a system that is antiquated and does not ensure the poplular vote actually matters. 

 

To return on topic, I certainly hope they do some stirring, can't wait to see Prayuth getting his knickers in a twist because of it. 

Edited October 1, 2017 by sjaak327

[BuaBS]

Here is how it's going to play out : at the next elections , and yes they will come someday, their party is going to win , Shinawatra's get amnesty and will lead their party and the government yet again . I hope I'm out of Thailand by then.

So Prayut : No elections for at least the next 5 years , pretty please . 

[craigt3365]

1 minute ago, BuaBS said:

Here is how it's going to play out : at the next elections , and yes they will come someday, their party is going to win , Shinawatra's get amnesty and will lead their party and the government yet again . I hope I'm out of Thailand by then.

So Prayut : No elections for at least the next 5 years , pretty please . 

An attempt at amnesty is what brought down the last government.  Never gonna happen.

[amdy2206]

I really hope so. They have been hounded by the rich for supporting the poor. Think of Robin Hood! They continue to win elections but that does not matter in Thailand - being Elite does. I really hate the term elite - who are they to think they are better than others? That was abolished in most civilised countries almost 100 years ago. How can Thailand expect to join the real world when there are almost slaves in the rich peoples' houses. The normal people are looked down upon, the so called elite are treated differently etc etc. Thailand needs a revolution to bring its treatment of people into the 21st century. Bring back Yingluk and Taksin

 

[sjaak327]

37 minutes ago, craigt3365 said:

An attempt at amnesty is what brought down the last government.  Never gonna happen.

Nah that was just used as an excuse. And look at the amnesty the NCPO awarded themselves, the attempted amnesty was not for future crimes.

 

The next government does not really matter, democracy does not return to Thailand, unless someone manages to throw out the charter.

 

[craigt3365]

3 minutes ago, sjaak327 said:

Nah that was just used as an excuse. And look at the amnesty the NCPO awarded themselves, the attempted amnesty was not for future crimes.

 

The next government does not really matter, democracy does not return to Thailand, unless someone manages to throw out the charter.

 

Nah, that's what started the protests.  Along with a variety of other problems.  That's the cause of the downfall.  All tied to the Shins.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/17/world/asia/possible-amnesty-for-former-thai-prime-minister-causes-uproar.html?mcubz=1

Quote

The Thai government faced a political uproar on Wednesday after details surfaced of a proposed prisoner amnesty that the country’s opposition says is designed to pardon Thaksin Shinawatra, the prime minister ousted in the 2006 military coup.

 

 

[sjaak327]

Yes that was what started the protest sure, of course it was just an excuse. As long as the minority cannot accept that the majority rules, democracy in Thailand will never work.

 

Too bad the minority decided to take matters into their own hands and staged yet another coup. Eventually they will be at the loosing end, it is just a matter of time.

[chainarong]

Is the Pope a catholic..................................

 

[Nemesis7]

Where is the doubt?

[digger70]

Care factor ,Zero.

[Eric Loh]

I don't think Yingluck will be politically vocal. Thaksin has much love for her little sister and painful for him to see her going through all those ordeals. He likely to tell her to step away from more political chaos that most likely to happen if the election is delayed again. That's probably reason she applying for U.K. Asylum. Thaksin will be vocal as he still has many supporters and even allies in the police and military. His influence in Thailand is still a threat to the establishment and they still fear him. 

[phantomfiddler]

The present people in power should engage in an education policy to tell the population who have enough brain cells to understand what really happened. Thaksin was a Bangkok policeman who went into partnership with an american guy highly knowledgeable in the telecommunications field. As soon as their company (A.I.S.) was firmly entrenched as the provider of mobile phone technology, the policeman had his partner thrown into jail on a trumped up charge, had him thrown out of the country (policemen can do this!) and basically stole the entire company. With the incredible amount of money that he was now making, he bribed the entire country to vote him into power as P.M. (Vote for me and I will give EVERY village in Thailand 1 million baht !). It worked, but he gave NO villages 1 mill, just loaned money to the "khamnan" who controls the whole village them from the government coffers, and then the pillaging started.

      Selling a huge piece of downtown government land to his wife for about 1% of it,s true value, in which everyone who said " You can,t do this !) received the response "Shut up and mind your own business" after which he moved on to the new airport, where he really cleaned up. The guy who they finally pinned the X-Ray scandal said "The person you are looking for is much MUCH higher than me". Guess who ? Rarely in history is someone encountered who is so totally devoid of morals or principles. Hopefully the present government will do all it can to get back some of the hundreds of billions from this disgusting family !

Edited October 1, 2017 by phantomfiddler

[wakeupplease]

16 minutes ago, phantomfiddler said:

The present people in power should engage in an education policy to tell the population who have enough brain cells to understand what really happened. Thaksin was a Bangkok policeman who went into partnership with an american guy highly knowledgeable in the telecommunications field. As soon as their company (A.I.S.) was firmly entrenched as the provider of mobile phone technology, the policeman had his partner thrown into jail on a trumped up charge, had him thrown out of the country (policemen can do this!) and basically stole the entire company. With the incredible amount of money that he was now making, he bribed the entire country to vote him into power as P.M. (Vote for me and I will give EVERY village in Thailand 1 million baht !). It worked, but he gave NO villages 1 mill, just loaned money to the "khamnan" who controls the whole village them from the government coffers, and then the pillaging started.

      Selling a huge piece of downtown government land to his wife for about 1% of it,s true value, in which everyone who said " You can,t do this !) received the response "Shut up and mind your own business" after which he moved on to the new airport, where he really cleaned up. The guy who they finally pinned the X-Ray scandal said "The person you are looking for is much MUCH higher than me". Guess who ? Rarely in history is someone encountered who is so totally devoid of morals or principles. Hopefully the present government will do all it can to get back some of the hundreds of billions from this disgusting family !

 

Looks like the attitude adjustment camp worked for some

[thaiguzzi]

35 minutes ago, phantomfiddler said:

The present people in power should engage in an education policy to tell the population who have enough brain cells to understand what really happened. Thaksin was a Bangkok policeman who went into partnership with an american guy highly knowledgeable in the telecommunications field. As soon as their company (A.I.S.) was firmly entrenched as the provider of mobile phone technology, the policeman had his partner thrown into jail on a trumped up charge, had him thrown out of the country (policemen can do this!) and basically stole the entire company. With the incredible amount of money that he was now making, he bribed the entire country to vote him into power as P.M. (Vote for me and I will give EVERY village in Thailand 1 million baht !). It worked, but he gave NO villages 1 mill, just loaned money to the "khamnan" who controls the whole village them from the government coffers, and then the pillaging started.

      Selling a huge piece of downtown government land to his wife for about 1% of it,s true value, in which everyone who said " You can,t do this !) received the response "Shut up and mind your own business" after which he moved on to the new airport, where he really cleaned up. The guy who they finally pinned the X-Ray scandal said "The person you are looking for is much MUCH higher than me". Guess who ? Rarely in history is someone encountered who is so totally devoid of morals or principles. Hopefully the present government will do all it can to get back some of the hundreds of billions from this disgusting family !

Excellent fiction dude. You should be an author...