Trump expected to decertify Iran nuclear deal, official says

[webfact]

Trump expected to decertify Iran nuclear deal, official says

By Steve Holland and Yara Bayoumy

 

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks after meeting with police at the Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department in the wake of the mass shooting in Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S., October 4, 2017. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

 

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Donald Trump is expected to announce soon that he will decertify the landmark international deal to curb Iran's nuclear programme, a senior administration official said on Thursday, in a step that potentially could cause the 2015 accord to unravel.

 

The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Trump is also expected to roll out a broader U.S. strategy on Iran that would be more confrontational. The Trump administration has frequently criticized Iran's conduct in the Middle East.

 

Trump, who has called the pact an "embarrassment" and "the worst deal ever negotiated," has been weighing whether it serves U.S. security interests as he faces an Oct. 15 deadline for certifying that Iran is complying with its terms.

 

"We must not allow Iran ... to obtain nuclear weapons," Trump said during a meeting with military leaders at the White House on Thursday, adding:

 

"The Iranian regime supports terrorism and exports violence, bloodshed and chaos across the Middle East. That is why we must put an end to Iran's continued aggression and nuclear ambitions. They have not lived up to the spirit of their agreement."

 

Asked about his decision on whether to certify the landmark deal, Trump said: "You'll be hearing about Iran very shortly."

 

Supporters say its collapse could trigger a regional arms race and worsen Middle East tensions, while opponents say it went too far in easing sanctions without requiring that Iran end its nuclear programme permanently.

 

Iranian authorities have repeatedly said Tehran would not be the first to violate the accord, under which Iran agreed to restrict its nuclear programme in return for lifting most international sanctions that had crippled its economy.

 

If Trump declines to certify Iran's compliance, U.S. congressional leaders would have 60 days to decide whether to reimpose sanctions on Tehran suspended under the agreement.

 

Whether Congress would be willing to reimpose sanctions is far from clear. While Republicans, and some Democrats, opposed the deal when it was approved in 2015, there is little obvious appetite in Congress for dealing with the Iran issue now.

 

The prospect that Washington could renege on the pact, which was signed by the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Russia, China, the European Union and Iran, has worried some of the U.S. allies that helped negotiate it.

 

"We, the Europeans, we have hammered this: the agreement is working," said a European diplomat who asked to remain anonymous. "We as Europeans, have repeated ... it’s impossible to reopen the agreement. Period. It’s impossible."

 

French President Emmanuel Macron said last month there was no alternative to the nuclear accord, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

 

A senior Iranian diplomat told Reuters on Thursday the end result of Trump's expected move would be to isolate the United States since the Europeans would continue to support it.

 

"Many foreign investors told us that they will not be scared away from Iran’s market if Trump de-certifies the deal," the diplomat said.

 

Trump has long criticized the pact, a signature foreign policy achievement of his Democratic predecessor Barack Obama.

 

The administration was considering Oct. 12 for Trump to give a speech on Iran but no final decision had been made, an official said previously.

 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a close ally of Trump, last month said that unless provisions in the accord removing restrictions on Iran's nuclear programme over time are eliminated, it should be cancelled.

 

"Fix it, or nix it," Netanyahu said in a speech at the U.N. General Assembly annual gathering of world leaders on Sept. 19.

 

Many of Trump's fellow Republicans who control Congress also have been critical of the deal.

 

'CANNOT ABIDE'

 

Trump blasted the deal in his speech to the U.N. General Assembly, also on Sept. 19.

 

"We cannot abide by an agreement if it provides cover for the eventual construction of a nuclear programme," Trump said, adding that Iran's government "masks a corrupt dictatorship behind the false guise of a democracy."

 

Trump is weighing a strategy that could allow more aggressive U.S. responses to Iran's forces, its Shi'ite Muslim proxies in Iraq and Syria and its support for militant groups.

 

Trump's defence secretary, Jim Mattis, told a congressional hearing on Tuesday that Iran was "fundamentally" in compliance with the agreement. He also said the United States should consider staying in the deal unless it were proven that Tehran was not abiding by it or that it was not in the U.S. national interest to do so.

 

When Mattis was asked by a senator whether he thought staying in the deal was in the U.S. national security interest, he replied: "Yes, senator, I do."

 

Last week, Iran’s foreign minister said Tehran may abandon the deal if Washington decides to withdraw.

 

A State Department official said the Trump administration was "fully committed to addressing the totality of Iranian threats and malign activities and seeks to bring about a change in the Iranian regime's behaviour."

 

The official said that behaviour includes ballistic missiles proliferation, "support for terrorism," support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, "unrelenting hostility to Israel," "consistently threatening freedom of navigation in the Persian Gulf," cyber attacks against the United States and its allies, human rights abuses and "arbitrary detentions of U.S. citizens."

 

"The JCPOA was expected to contribute to regional and international peace and security, and Iran’s regime is doing everything in its power to undermine peace and security,” the State Department official added.

 

The move also would represent another step by Trump that would undo key parts of Obama's legacy.

 

If Trump moves to decertify the accord, it would mark another example of walking away from international commitments as he pursues his nationalist "America First" agenda. He previously announced plans to abandon the Paris climate accord and the ambitious 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal, two key Obama achievements.

 

(Reporting by Steve Holland and Yara Bayoumy in Washington; Additional reporting by Jeff Mason, Patricia Zengerle and David Alexander in Washington and Parisa Hafezi in Ankara; Writing by Will Dunham; Editing by James Dalgleish)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2017-10-06

[Samui Bodoh]

No matter what you think of the deal (I think it was good), the worst possible policy decision that you could make is to walk away from it now. the deal was largely 'front-ended' in favour of Iran and they have received many/most of the benefits already. To tear it up now simply does not make sense; why would Iran agree to renegotiate it now when they have received many benefits? Does anyone think they would agree to a more disadvantageous arrangement?

 

Donald Trump, listen to your Defense Secretary, he knows more than you.

 

1 hour ago, webfact said:

When Mattis was asked by a senator whether he thought staying in the deal was in the U.S. national security interest, he replied: "Yes, senator, I do."

 

He knows MUCH more than you...

[craigt3365]

I do believe what will happen is it will get kicked over to Congress to decide what to do. Hopefully, they'll do the right thing and keep this deal intact.

[DM07]

This guy is a #$@%&*0 moron!

...to quote Rex Tillerson!

[tonray]

1 hour ago, craigt3365 said:

I do believe what will happen is it will get kicked over to Congress to decide what to do. Hopefully, they'll do the right thing and keep this deal intact.

You mean the Republican controlled Congress that lambasted every Obama Iran negotiation and called the deal a disgrace almost daily ? yeah...that gives me hope

[boomerangutang]

1 hour ago, craigt3365 said:

I do believe what will happen is it will get kicked over to Congress to decide what to do. Hopefully, they'll do the right thing and keep this deal intact.

Are you joking?  Congress is controlled by partisan Republicans.  Name one thing they've done right in the past 15 years.  If they were to vote to hand out automatic weapons to elementary school kids, they would do it.

[boomerangutang]

Trashing the Iran deal is bad in many ways.  Nothing good can come from it.   If Trump thinks it's a bad deal, then work to hammer out a better deal.  Trump has zero capacity to work on anything except self-enrichment and self-glory while shitting on everyone else.

 

He's shitting on US and European negotiators who worked many months and long hours to patch together a deal which Iran would sign.  

 

The nicest thing I can say about Trump is he's a dangerous ignoramus. 

 

If I were an Iranian now, I'd think, "OK world, get ready, we're going to make as many nukes as we want.  Pakistan, the US, Israel, Russia, India, UK, N.Korea, France are doing it, why not us also?  Get ready world, here we come!"

[craigt3365]

10 minutes ago, boomerangutang said:

Are you joking?  Congress is controlled by partisan Republicans.  Name one thing they've done right in the past 15 years.  If they were to vote to hand out automatic weapons to elementary school kids, they would do it.

You mean the Republican controlled Congress that couldn't kill Obama Care? It's divided now. More so every day. Did you read the latest rant about Trump from one of the leading republicans?

[Pib]

Donald's an idiot.  He made this campaign promise because he knew his base of supporter (when not watching FoxNews) wanted to hear it.   Of course Donald or his base really don't know any of the details of the plan and didn't want to know since the Obama administration arranged the deal....just another case of being anti-Obama.

 

If Donald (the idiot) does not recertify the deal and kicks it to Congress then the do-nothing Congress will drag their fee till the last possible second and then probably reintroduce some "mild" sanctions with no teeth just to say they took some action.

 

Donald continues to drag America down in the eyes of the international community by failing to follow through with commitments, saying stupid things, and just doing stupid things. 

[Golgota]

this also send strong signals to kim : do not make any deal with the usa : they are not to be trusted... Tangerine#45 is such an idiot

[Andaman Al]

Donald needs a war to survive. Iran is much easier than N Korea. With Iran the USA will have Israel, Saudi and the UAE. It will cost thousands of US lives but won't be as bad as the immediate slaughter in Korea. Donald WILL have his war, it's the only way to try and stop the Russia investigation.

[twix38]

Trashing the Iran deal now is probably not a good idea, but equally letting them progress slowly to a nuclear bomb as the deal guarantees is ridiculous. It should never have been agreed as it is, in the first place. A crazy deal that all negotiating partners should be ashamed of letting Iran have. On top of which most benefits including shed loads of money   were given up front. Donald is however correct in that this must be one of the world's worst ever agreements. Negotiated to appear as if we had a very weak hand in negotiations when infact after years of crippling sanctions we had the best hand we could have hoped for.

 

Edited October 6, 2017 by twix38

[Golgota]

27 minutes ago, twix38 said:

Trashing the Iran deal now is probably not a good idea, but equally letting them progress slowly to a nuclear bomb as the deal guarantees is ridiculous. It should never have been agreed as it is, in the first place. A crazy deal that all negotiating partners should be ashamed of letting Iran have. On top of which most benefits including shed loads of money   were given up front. Donald is however correct in that this must be one of the world's worst ever agreements. Negotiated to appear as if we had a very weak hand in negotiations when infact after years of crippling sanctions we had the best hand we could have hoped for.

 

Iran is NOT building atomic weapons. They respect the deal. Trump says they do not respect "the spirit" of the deal...which is stupid and i am quite sure Tangerine#45 just wants to get rid of anything "Obama"  

[Golgota]

The nost  ironic part is the Tangerine#45 lambasts Iran for its dictatorship and terrorism support and yet forgets the Saudi are close friends...

[twix38]

Golgotha,

 

Agree, Iran is not building an atomic weapon (now) and yes they broadly respect the deal. 

 

That is clearly not my point!!!

 

I said the deal is crazy. Not surprised Iran keeps to it and I agree that now it's probably not a good idea to trash it, as I stated.

 

What this deal allows for, is for Iran to be in a position to ramp it up in a decade quite quickly and legally with nothing done to address that. All it did was to push the can down the road and meanwhile under cover they slowly progress and get ready to make a bomb with the infrastructure and materials planning and ready to scale up. It is not a solution but delayed for future administration. Iran are indeed slowly rather than speedily progressing to have a nuclear bomb in the future (decade). I call this deal one of the worst fudges in living memory when sanctions brought Iran to the table as the weaker party.

 

This deal was selling ourselves short for a decade of delay rather than actually dealing with Iran's goal it just slows it down. I.e. let's them progress slowly behind the scenes while complying with a terrible deal that we fudged and squandered to get it signed off.

 

Edited October 6, 2017 by twix38
Update

[Morch]

5 hours ago, craigt3365 said:

I do believe what will happen is it will get kicked over to Congress to decide what to do. Hopefully, they'll do the right thing and keep this deal intact.

 

Discounting Trump, and factoring in not everyone on his staff is clueless - there's a fair chance that this is a calculated move. Taking into account votes needed and public attitude it could be one way to save Trump's face while placing responsibility with others.

[Morch]

4 hours ago, tonray said:

You mean the Republican controlled Congress that lambasted every Obama Iran negotiation and called the deal a disgrace almost daily ? yeah...that gives me hope

 

3 hours ago, boomerangutang said:

Are you joking?  Congress is controlled by partisan Republicans.  Name one thing they've done right in the past 15 years.  If they were to vote to hand out automatic weapons to elementary school kids, they would do it.

 

Same Republicans who couldn't get Obamacare scraped, same Republicans who couldn't get the Benghazi investigations anywhere. Unless mistaken, all that's needed are 3-4 Republican votes in order for the agreement to hold. Not too hard seeing that happen. Especially if some token mini-sanctions will be thrown in.

[Morch]

1 hour ago, Andaman Al said:

Donald needs a war to survive. Iran is much easier than N Korea. With Iran the USA will have Israel, Saudi and the UAE. It will cost thousands of US lives but won't be as bad as the immediate slaughter in Korea. Donald WILL have his war, it's the only way to try and stop the Russia investigation.

 

Even if the assumption that Trump is looking for a wag-the-dog war (and I don't think he does or can), still jumping the gun on this one.

 

Trump sending this down Congress way does not imply a war. Even Congress scraping the agreement doesn't imply war.

 

Seems like some are really itching for war just so that they could go "told ya".

 

 

[Golgota]

7 minutes ago, Morch said:

 

Even if the assumption that Trump is looking for a wag-the-dog war (and I don't think he does or can), still jumping the gun on this one.

 

Trump sending this down Congress way does not imply a war. Even Congress scraping the agreement doesn't imply war.

 

Seems like some are really itching for war just so that they could go "told ya".

 

 

The one itching for war is Trump himself... Every statement he makes recently shows he is a warmonger... And it is not a part of his "art of the deal"

[Srikcir]

25 minutes ago, twix38 said:

This deal was selling ourselves short for a decade of delay

The delay is really not about the G-7 (which is nominally referred to by some as the USA or "ourselves") but about Iran having an opportunity to restore and once again grow its economy to the benefit of its people with the lifting of sanctions, refund of impounded billions of dollars, sale of massive oil stockpiles and infusion of foreign investment into Iranian industries and infrastructure.

 

It is this promise of prosperity that President Hassan Rouhani used to convince  Supreme Leader Khomeini to overrule the hardliners who wanted nuclear weapons. Rouhani's re-election in 2017 was an endorsement of a policy of economic growth vs nuclear weapon development. If Iran achieved prosperity in ten years, it might not want to or need to resort once again to nuclear weapon development at the cost of once again trashing its economy.

 

Trump reneging on the nuclear deal will deter prosperity (G-6 countries have been holding back from full economic engagement with Iran due to uncertainty of Trump's position on the deal) and give Iran no choice but to rejoin hardliner's strategy of nuclear weapon  development. That decade of "delay" becomes a couple years.

[Golgota]

 

. If Iran achieved prosperity in ten years, it might not want to or need to resort once again to nuclear weapon development at the cost of once again trashing its economy.

Nailed it

[dunroaming]

Trump is confrontational, a bully with very little intelligence.  For someone like that to be POTUS is a very dangerous thing and means that people around him have to spend all their time trying to rein the moron in.

[IAMHERE]

Brilliant move by Trump, force Congress to go on record as being pro Iran or anti Israel.  Pass congress or not pass, helps Trump in the 2018 elections.

[twix38]

Iran, a sponsor of terrorists with hardliners appeased for now by a deal that allows them to build the bomb in a decade and you think for their own security and world view anything is going to stop these people! They would never have accepted a deal that did more than delay them and they did not need to. In a decade they have a green light to resume and in very short order and sanctions then will be too little, too late. Cloud cuckoo land!

 

I think we should leave it in place now it's done and other more pressing concerns N. Korea, but when this deal was struck it is exactly as DT calls it. Sanctions took ages to ramp up and work and we just settle for a delay and call it bailed if their economy is good in a decade. Lol

 

Btw they launched a rocket that was I thought prohibited under agreement .

 

Irrespective of that and their economy in a decade they will want to join the nuclear club unless this Leopard changes its spots . Perhaps by then they will have a democratic left wing populist government lol

Edited October 6, 2017 by twix38
Update

[craigt3365]

3 hours ago, Golgota said:

Iran is NOT building atomic weapons. They respect the deal. Trump says they do not respect "the spirit" of the deal...which is stupid and i am quite sure Tangerine#45 just wants to get rid of anything "Obama"  

They've violated deals in the past.

[Golgota]

4 minutes ago, twix38 said:

Iran, a sponsor of terrorists with hardliners appeased for now by a deal that allows them to build the bomb in a decade and you think for their own security and world view anything is going to stop these people! They would never have accepted a deal that did more than delay them and they did not need to. In a decade they have a green light to resume and in very short order and sanctions then will be too little, too late. Cloud cuckoo land!

 

I think we should leave it in place now it's done and other more pressing concerns N. Korea, but when this deal was struck it is exactly as DT calls it. Sanctions took ages to ramp up and work and we just settle for a delay and call it bailed if their economy is good in a decade. Lol

 

Btw they launched a rocket that was I thought prohibited under agreement .

 

Irrespective of that and their economy in a decade they will want to join the nuclear club unless this Leopard changes its spots . Perhaps by then they will have a democratic left wing populist government lol

You seem to be in the minority by thinking like this.

Why on hell a country with a recovering economy, would want to ruin it for a fight they will lose?

So far the european leaders think it is a good deal, Iran thinks it is a good deal, companies tbink it is a good deal, iranian people think it is a good deal, democrats think it is a good deal and even a part of the republicans.. The only ones thinking it is not is the Tangerine guy and a couple of warmongers. Also the main point is : the deal is respected. Usa will isolate itself, look untrustable when it comes to deals and one more time the moron in the oval office lools like a clueless fool..

 

[craigt3365]

2 hours ago, Golgota said:

The one itching for war is Trump himself... Every statement he makes recently shows he is a warmonger... And it is not a part of his "art of the deal"

It's exactly how Trump negotiates. Create chaos, keep the other side guessing and off guard. I don't think he's itching for war. But he's an unknown. Exactly how he likes it.

[craigt3365]

1 minute ago, Golgota said:

Why on hell a country with a recovering economy, would want to ruin it for a fight they will lose?

Are we talking about North Korea?  LOL

[Golgota]

4 minutes ago, craigt3365 said:

They've violated deals in the past.

This deal has been violated by Iran? In the past Iran was ruled by hard liners, and coming from the USA the "violated the spirit of the deal" seems more like a 4 yrs old tantrum..

[Golgota]

2 minutes ago, craigt3365 said:

It's exactly how Trump negotiates. Create chaos, keep the other side guessing and off guard. I don't think he's itching for war. But he's an unknown. Exactly how he likes it.

Except he is not dealing real estate and does not really have the upper hand here.. Bankruptcy is not an option if he fails..