Waiting for May, Brussels eyes December Brexit deal

[webfact]

Waiting for May, Brussels eyes December Brexit deal

By Alastair Macdonald and Jan Strupczewski

 

Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May meets with her Swedish counterpart Stefan Lofven (not pictured) at Gothia Towers Hotel on the eve of the EU Social Summit for Fair Jobs and Growth in Gothenburg, Sweden November 16, 2017. TT News Agency/Bjorn Larsson Rosvall via REUTERS/Files

 

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - When Theresa May visits Brussels on Friday, EU negotiators will be listening intently for signs the British prime minister is preparing to risk a domestic backlash and raise her offer to secure a Brexit deal in December.

 

European Union officials and diplomats from the other 27 member states involved in the process hope that within a week to 10 days of meeting European Council President Donald Tusk, during a summit with ex-Soviet neighbours, May will deliver movement on three key conditions so that her EU peers can launch a new phase of Brexit negotiations when they meet on Dec. 14-15.

 

"I don't know what room for manoeuvre May has, but what we can see is a willingness to act," one senior EU official told Reuters.

Another spoke of efforts to arrange the "choreography" of a deal over the next three weeks, including a possible EU-UK "joint report" on interim accords to unlock talks on trade.

 

"I feel the tectonic plates moving now," a diplomat handling Brexit for an EU government said. "Time is running out and a failure in the December Council would serve nobody's purpose."

 

There has been only a day of top-level talks between the two lead negotiators since a mid-October summit that dismissed May's call for immediate talks on a future trade agreement.

 

But talks are continuing apace behind the scenes, participants say, ahead of a deadline of early December to strike a deal which can then be fully formalised by the 27 government leaders at the summit.

 

Hopes have been raised by reports in British media that May has secured backing from pro-Brexit hardliners in her cabinet to increase the amount of a financial settlement of what Britain owes to the Union when it leaves in March 2019.

 

"If there is a political willingness in Britain, we should be ready," a senior EU official said, while warning that nothing was being taken for granted.

 

May's room for manoeuvre to cut a deal that would please business while irritating Britons who want a sharper break with Brussels is limited. And Germany and France, the Union's lead powers have taken a tough line so far.

 

With German Chancellor Angela Merkel distracted at home by a search for a new coalition, May can expect little focus from her to help smoothe a deal, several diplomats said, leaving it quite possible that December will not see an end to deadlock.

 

"That would create some kind of crisis in negotiations," the second EU official said, noting that time was already short to complete a treaty by late next year to ensure an orderly Brexit.

 

"But maybe that is necessary."

 

TUSK MEETS BARNIER

 

EU negotiator Michel Barnier, who met Tusk on Wednesday to prepare Tusk's Friday meeting with May, had been expected to hold a formal round of talks with British Brexit Secretary David Davis in the week starting Dec. 4.

 

But EU officials say planning is all still up in the air. There could be a high-level meeting as soon as next week, possibly on Friday, Dec. 1, one said.

 

The sides already believe they are quite close on agreeing the scope of rights for expatriate citizens in Britain and on the continent, though the EU will be particularly looking to pin Britain down to accepting its demands that any agreement be subject to enforcement through the Union's legal system.

 

The third key criterion for moving to Phase Two, an outline agreement on how to avoid the new EU-UK land border disrupting the peace in Northern Ireland, remains a potential stumbling block. Differences of opinion between London and Dublin have been marked this month, worrying EU officials.

 

However, it is the financial settlement that has been the most concern for the past few months and that, they believe, could be resolved by a combination of May stating clearly that Britain will pay a share after leaving of two major EU budget lines, staff pensions and agreed but undisbursed spending.

 

British press reports, seen in Brussels as planted leaks from May's team, suggesting she might offer to pay something like 40 billion pounds ($53 billion) have encouraged EU negotiators.

 

While that is well short of the 60 billion euros ($71 billion) the European Commission has mentioned, that was always seen by EU officials as a maximum demand. And they are willing, they say, to help May massage the public messaging of the amount in order to limit the political flak she takes at home.

 

"On presentational issues, Barnier is ready to help, not to call things by their real name," an EU official said.

 

(Reporting by Alastair Macdonald; @macdonaldrtr)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2017-11-23

[dunroaming]

Show me the money and we can all do high fives and move forward.  Let's hope this really is a deal we can agree to.

[whatsupdoc]

Wouldn't be too optimistic.

A leaked Irish report isn't:

European dismay at UK 'chaos and confusion' over Brexit

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2017/1123/922191-brexit-embassies/

 

It seems to me that even if the negotiations move on to the next phase no deal can be struck before time is running out. The UK (and its government) is just too divided over Brexit.

[Kiwiken]

It seems to me with EU playing hardball and the stand over tactics. Why the UK does not raise the finger and walk away risking their ire i do not know.

[naboo]

37 minutes ago, Kiwiken said:

It seems to me with EU playing hardball and the stand over tactics. Why the UK does not raise the finger and walk away risking their ire i do not know.

Because the British economy would tank with no deal. 

 

The EU want the best deal for their 27 member states. Any deal also needs to be agreed individually by all 27 member states. Why would they give Britain any more than is necessary? They want British manufacturing jobs moved to Europe, they want the banks relocating to Europe, they want the best deal on trade for their industries and they want Britain to contribute as much as possible to the EU budget. They are looking after the interests of the 27 member states, Britain leaving and facing financial bust is not their problem, in fact, it might be beneficial to them.

 

Britain hasn't shot itself in the foot. It's shot itself in the head.

[Grouse]

43 minutes ago, Kiwiken said:

It seems to me with EU playing hardball and the stand over tactics. Why the UK does not raise the finger and walk away risking their ire i do not know.

That's exactly what the Komodo Cons want. But, they need to show adequate EU "intransigence" to get away with it. I tell you, they don't have the interest of the average British individual at heart! It astonishes me that people don't see it!

[naboo]

More remoaners:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-k-prime-minister-faces-more-tortured-brexit-talks-after-ireland-cries-foul-1511390539

But to make progress, Mrs. May will need to acknowledge that her current policy on Northern Ireland is based on three incompatible red lines: no membership of the EU customs union or single market; no hard border in Ireland; and no border in the Irish Sea. Dublin and Brussels are determined to that the UK government should spell out how these red lines will be redrawn; the fate of Brexit may hinge on the outcome of this harsh confrontation with reality.

Reality can f-off too. We're in a Brexit wonderland. Reality and experts are sooo 2015.

[NeoDinosaw]

4 hours ago, Grouse said:

That's exactly what the Komodo Cons want. But, they need to show adequate EU "intransigence" to get away with it. I tell you, they don't have the interest of the average British individual at heart! It astonishes me that people don't see it!

Spot-on Grouse.  The hardline Brexitiers want to change UK into a tax haven with a population of empoverished 'plebs' ruled by a small number of super-rich  masters.

Remind you of anywhere ?