Unprecedented jobs decline demands quick action

[webfact]

EDITORIAL

Unprecedented jobs decline demands quick action

By The Nation

 

The challenges are mounting for Thailand amid demographic shifts and limited gains from economic growth 
 

The Thai economy expanded by 4.3 per cent in the third quarter of this year, the highest rate in four years, but unemployment rose 1.3 per cent from the previous year’s 1.2 per cent. The latter phenomenon is unprecedented amid economic recovery, underscoring a major shift in the country’s demographics and the growing negative impact of automation in various industries.

 

A breakdown shows that employment in the farm sector dropped 1.2 per cent, while non-farm employment declined 1.8 per cent, with industrial and manufacturing sectors recording a 4-per-cent drop. While farm jobs registered a significant drop, those in the services sector remained robust – especially in tourism and its related services. However, there were fewer manufacturing and construction jobs during the third quarter.

 

To boost competitiveness, the electronics sector, for example, has used more robots and automation in its manufacturing process, resulting in lower employment, and this despite an increase in the sector’s output. 

 

According to the Bank of Thailand, there is also a mismatch of skills, as evidenced by a large number of positions left unfilled by new graduates, whose qualifications may not meet employers’ requirements. In addition, Thailand is entering the advanced stages of becoming an ageing society, in which 20 per cent of the population will be 60 or older in just a few more years. As a result, the workforce’s replacement rate has nose-dived, since fewer workers are entering the labour market due to a relatively low birth rate, compared to those leaving the workforce.

 

Another factor at play is that the ongoing economic recovery has been mainly driven by the revival of export-oriented industries that focus on using new technology to boost efficiency, especially robots and automation systems, to replace workers. This lowers costs amid rising output, while avoiding the potential impact of rising wages.

 

Moreover, the government’s “Thailand 4.0” initiative to modernise the economy and society has resulted in the offering of various tax and other incentives to encourage industries to turn to more automation systems and robots. 

 

It is by now clear that, if the government doesn’t quickly come up with a more comprehensive programme to address the negative consequences of Thailand 4.0, especially with regard to its impacts on the labour market, it will soon be too late to make the needed corrections.

 

One solution would be to offer more incentives to promote jobs in the services sector, along with new vocational training programmes. Besides tourism, hotel and related services, healthcare is a potential area for job creation, especially with regard to medical tourism and elderly care.

 

In this context, the demographic shift leading to Thailand’s advanced ageing population could be turned into an opportunity, because more workers will be needed to provide elderly care, not only to Thais but also foreigners living and visiting here.

 

However, other solutions will also be required to cope with the challenges of a higher economic growth rate but fewer jobs available in the traditional sectors.

 

Thailand is certainly not alone in grappling with this novel global phenomenon, in which digital and other disruptive technologies are at play and wreaking havoc on labour and other markets.

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/opinion/30333449

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2017-12-08

[Samui Bodoh]

The editorial glosses over one key factor while ignoring another. Yes, automation is a factor, just perhaps not the only one or even a key one.

 

1 hour ago, webfact said:

According to the Bank of Thailand, there is also a mismatch of skills, as evidenced by a large number of positions left unfilled by new graduates, whose qualifications may not meet employers’ requirements.

 

This is reflective of a poor education system, and a curse that will haunt Thailand for a long time to come. A country with a well-educated populace will have a good future, while a country without a well-educated populace will not. At the moment, Thailand does not have a well-educated populace and won't for many years.

 

The other factor ignored in the editorial is the lack of confidence due to the coup government. 'Confidence' is one of those amorphous entities that is hard to measure but everyone knows exists. That said, 3-4 years ago Thailand had growth rates roughly equivalent to her neighbours, then it dropped by 50% or more. My (logical) inference is that it was due to lack of confidence in the Junta government.

 

I would predict that a return to a democratically elected government will add a few points to the growth rate almost immediately; it usually does as it signals a rejuvenation of spirit in the country.

 

Edited December 7, 2017 by Samui Bodoh
lack of coffee

[LazySlipper]

1 hour ago, webfact said:

While farm jobs registered a significant drop, those in the services sector remained robust – especially in tourism and its related services.

 

Yes... and the farmers are coming to be waiters and waitresses in town... that would explain why:

      1. they always get something wrong in the order

      2. they always make one bill for the whole table

      3. they always serve my beer to the wife

      4. most of them can't speak a lick of English

[Colabamumbai]

Vocational training is a good idea, every municipality should offer it. The educational system is sorely lacking, most students do not have the education or life skills to enter the work force. School curriculum needs an overhaul at all levels. 

[Cadbury]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

The Thai economy expanded by 4.3 per cent in the third quarter of this year

I can understand the government getting exited about some extraordinary growth figures for just one quarter. It gives them something to brag about. But I am surprised The Nation gets exited about it. 

Putting growth figure issue aside the unemployment figures don't look good and as Samui Bodoh has mentioned education could play a big factor, not only now but in years and even decades to come.

I am no employment expert but migrant workers (legal or otherwise) don't seem to have a problem getting a job. After all they flock to Thailand in droves as if it was the land of milk and honey........which it probably is compared to where they came from.

That exposes a few other factors:

1. Are wages that unattractive to Thai workers that they turn down job offers in preference to being couch potatoes?

2. Are Thai workers lazy and prefer migrant workers to do both the dirty work and the hard work?

 

I don't profess to know the answers but some here may feel qualified to comment. All I know is the minimum wages is 300baht per day and I personally know some hard-up Thai people in the N.E. who do farm labour for that.

[baboon]

5 minutes ago, Colabamumbai said:

Vocational training is a good idea, every municipality should offer it. The educational system is sorely lacking, most students do not have the education or life skills to enter the work force. School curriculum needs an overhaul at all levels. 

Educated people think and ask questions. Can't be having that...

[baboon]

3 minutes ago, Cadbury said:

I can understand the government getting exited about some extraordinary growth figures for just one quarter. It gives them something to brag about. But I am surprised The Nation gets exited about it. 

Putting growth figure issue aside the unemployment figures don't look good and as Samui Bodoh has mentioned education could play a big factor, not only now but in years and even decades to come.

I am no employment expert but migrant workers (legal or otherwise) don't seem to have a problem getting a job. After all they flock to Thailand in droves as if it was the land of milk and honey........which it probably is compared to where they came from.

That exposes a few other factors:

1. Are wages that unattractive to Thai workers that they turn down job offers in preference to being couch potatoes?

2. Are Thai workers lazy and prefer migrant workers to do both the dirty work and the hard work?

 

I don't profess to know the answers but some here may feel qualified to comment. All I know is the minimum wages is 300baht per day and I personally know some hard-up Thai people in the N.E. who do farm labour for that.

You ask some interesting questions. I don't know the answers either, but this place can certainly appear to give the lie to the phrase 'Beggars can't be choosers'....

[JAG]

Vocational training is a good idea, every municipality should offer it. The educational system is sorely lacking, most students do not have the education or life skills to enter the work force. School curriculum needs an overhaul at all levels. 

My understanding is that vocational training is offered. My stepson attended vocational college in Chiang Rai for 3 years after finishing M4. It seemed a pretty good old fashioned technical college training in engineering. He now has a fairly good job as a machinist as a result.

Sent from my KENNY using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[soalbundy]

39 minutes ago, Cadbury said:

I can understand the government getting exited about some extraordinary growth figures for just one quarter. It gives them something to brag about. But I am surprised The Nation gets exited about it. 

Putting growth figure issue aside the unemployment figures don't look good and as Samui Bodoh has mentioned education could play a big factor, not only now but in years and even decades to come.

I am no employment expert but migrant workers (legal or otherwise) don't seem to have a problem getting a job. After all they flock to Thailand in droves as if it was the land of milk and honey........which it probably is compared to where they came from.

That exposes a few other factors:

1. Are wages that unattractive to Thai workers that they turn down job offers in preference to being couch potatoes?

2. Are Thai workers lazy and prefer migrant workers to do both the dirty work and the hard work?

 

I don't profess to know the answers but some here may feel qualified to comment. All I know is the minimum wages is 300baht per day and I personally know some hard-up Thai people in the N.E. who do farm labour for that.

Here in Isaan the minimum wage often isn't adhered to, a neighbours wife applied for work at a petrol station, they offered her 200 Baht a day, when she said that the minimum was 300 they said take it or leave it,there are others who would work for even 150 a day. Big firms like Tesco or Big C stick to the law because they have to as do firms who have unions but small firms and farms don't pay anything near the minimum wage

[Nowisee]

2 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

This is reflective of a poor education system, and a curse that will haunt Thailand for a long time to come. A country with a well-educated populace will have a good future, while a country without a well-educated populace will not. At the moment, Thailand does not have a well-educated populace and won't for many years.

 

The other factor ignored in the editorial is the lack of confidence due to the coup government. 'Confidence' is one of those amorphous entities that is hard to measure but everyone knows exists. That said, 3-4 years ago Thailand had growth rates roughly equivalent to her neighbours, then it dropped by 50% or more. My (logical) inference is that it was due to lack of confidence in the Junta government.

 

 

58 minutes ago, Colabamumbai said:

Vocational training is a good idea, every municipality should offer it. The educational system is sorely lacking, most students do not have the education or life skills to enter the work force. School curriculum needs an overhaul at all levels. 

 

This is dead on and can't be stated enough... and I would include, life skills to enter the life force.   

When I talk to "University" students here I feel like I'm talking to 8th graders.    
A few of my friends are nurses and they tell me, the majority of nurses coming out of certain schools here are functionally incompetent. 

 

Someone mentioned vocational schools, I agree and they should be FREE to those that put in the effort.  Certain "People" in this country are filthy rich and there is no excuse why the universities and technical/vocational school here should not have state of the art equipment and more importantly, intelligent educators working without their hands tied behind their back.  

 

Other countries in this region hire foreigners with specific skills in creating good educators and they are changing the dynamic of the education culture.  

The rest of Asia is zooming past this country and most just don't see it...  

Edited December 8, 2017 by Nowisee

[Srikcir]

I don't see automation in the fishing industry (not processing) that may further underscore unemployment vulnerability.

Not only would laborers be impacted by onboard automation but offboard-stevedore services as well.  Fishing boat owners are already being impacted by restricted sailings to meet UII requirements that is idling boat crews and lowering catch volumes.

[Krataiboy]

Thailand is certainly not alone in grappling with this novel global phenomenon

 

The digital element of the latest industrial revolution may be novel, but the history of mankind is replete with examples of "disruptive" technologies - from the invention of the wheel and the spinning jenny to the creation of first computer - which presaged enormous changes to human life.

 

lt is managing the inevitable transformation the robotics revolution will bring which presents the greatest challenge - as it will be the private sector which will benefit most from automation and public authorities who need to come up with workable ways to deal with the human consequences.

 

Yet there is little indication from the words of actions from the caretaker Thai administration that they have any grasp of the convulsions due to afflict the working environment over the next few decades, let alone a credible strategy for dealing with them.

 

Only yesterday, newspapers reported on a new government campaign to reduce the horrendous number of road accidents caused by careless and drunken driving.  All very commendable. But in the relatively near future, if the experts are right, autonomous self-driving vehicles will take us wherever we wish to go and the Royal Thai Police will have better things to do than tell robots to wear crash helmets and blow into breathalysers.

 

We all need to think ahead - and fast.

 

 

[jaywalker]

I just thought I was confused when this was posted a few hours ago.

 

Thailand experiences jobless recovery

[champers]

4 hours ago, LazySlipper said:

 

Yes... and the farmers are coming to be waiters and waitresses in town... that would explain why:

      1. they always get something wrong in the order

      2. they always make one bill for the whole table

      3. they always serve my beer to the wife

      4. most of them can't speak a lick of English

Don't be too harsh on your waiting staff. Their parents probably grew the rice and vegetables their offspring bought to your table.

[Happyman58]

3 types of Thais 1/Those that have a job 30% 2/ Those that cant get a job because they are over 30 20% 3/ Thais that are just to lazy to work and let foreigners come in and take there jobs 50%

[Odysseus123]

15 minutes ago, Happyman58 said:

3 types of Thais 1/Those that have a job 30% 2/ Those that cant get a job because they are over 30 20% 3/ Thais that are just to lazy to work and let foreigners come in and take there jobs 50%

That's about it up where I lived in Isaan.

 

At the end of the day I had no sympathy for them.

 

Most male ambitions seem to centre around.

1.Hammock testing.

2.Lao Kao quality control.

3.Sneering at the Lao,Khmer and Burmese who were actually doing the jobs.

 

At the end of the day they need to realise that they are not NUMBAH ONE in the universe though I will concede the point that they are sitting atop one of the worlds largest garbage dumps.

Edited December 8, 2017 by Odysseus123

[farcanell]

9 hours ago, webfact said:

One solution would be to

..... reduce foreign cheap labor and have Thais do it.... perhaps then the “face” issue about doing menial jobs, will encourage children (or parents to force them) to pay attention at school to better their lot

 

as a pre teen, I used to help the old farc do a newspaper delivery round... and I knew from this, that I needed to do my schoolwork.

[Gecko123]

I follow crime news in Thailand pretty closely, and have recently noticed an uptick in the number of people citing inability to find work, and economic pressure as motivation behind theft crimes.

 

 

[JimGant]

Quote

I would predict that a return to a democratically elected government will add a few points to the growth rate almost immediately; it usually does as it signals a rejuvenation of spirit in the country.

....unless the next democratically elected prime minister is Thaksin's son.....

 

No, Churchill was right about Democracy. And, I'm still trying to deal with Donald Trump's election --- and exactly when I should begin to sell 'short' my stock holdings. Unfortunately, the US, not being parliamentarian, and not likely to have a coup, is stuck with what universal suffrage has allowed.

 

Let's just hope Thailand can identify a solid, educated, honest, and smart individual to be elected next round. A Thailand "Lee Kuan Yew" would be nice, even with a 'managed democracy' label attached. Sadly, Anand, at age 85, isn't a candidate. Not sure who else is out there -- Somkid?

[PatOngo]

3 hours ago, Odysseus123 said:

That's about it up where I lived in Isaan.

 

At the end of the day I had no sympathy for them.

 

Most male ambitions seem to centre around.

1.Hammock testing.

2.Lao Kao quality control.

3.Sneering at the Lao,Khmer and Burmese who were actually doing the jobs.

 

At the end of the day they need to realise that they are not NUMBAH ONE in the universe though I will concede the point that they are sitting atop one of the worlds largest garbage dumps.

I know of about 65 million people that would disagree!...........I'm not one of them. 

[Artisi]

10 hours ago, LazySlipper said:

 

Yes... and the farmers are coming to be waiters and waitresses in town... that would explain why:

      1. they always get something wrong in the order

      2. they always make one bill for the whole table

      3. they always serve my beer to the wife

      4. most of them can't speak a lick of English

And why should they speak English? 

[Somtamnication]

What is that saying? Ah!  Somnamna!

[Artisi]

8 hours ago, JAG said:

My understanding is that vocational training is offered. My stepson attended vocational college in Chiang Rai for 3 years after finishing M4. It seemed a pretty good old fashioned technical college training in engineering. He now has a fairly good job as a machinist as a result.

Sent from my KENNY using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

Far too much emphasis placed on university education which in most cases is very low level at best. However, I believe there is a move to encourage more to attend technical colleges which is a major step in the right direction but will take some time for it to become effective and useful. 

Of course one major stumbling block is the belief that you must have a uni degree to be successful. 

[Happyman58]

13 hours ago, farcanell said:

..... reduce foreign cheap labor and have Thais do it.... perhaps then the “face” issue about doing menial jobs, will encourage children (or parents to force them) to pay attention at school to better their lot

 

as a pre teen, I used to help the old farc do a newspaper delivery round... and I knew from this, that I needed to do my schoolwork.

I agree Thais hate work at building sites Hence Burmese Cambodians in here doing the work  But but i have a step daughter 17 should be at work not doing well at school  waste of time and she would not work in iron lung I know now if i had my time at school again i would love to go to school in Thailand The number of days the kids dont have to go to school is unreal  Last week Tuesday off Fathers day  Friday off Princess is coming to Issan Just shut the school down security Wow 3 days out of 5 go to school no wonder my lazy step daughter loves school

 

 

[Happyman58]

10 hours ago, Artisi said:

Far too much emphasis placed on university education which in most cases is very low level at best. However, I believe there is a move to encourage more to attend technical colleges which is a major step in the right direction but will take some time for it to become effective and useful. 

Of course one major stumbling block is the belief that you must have a uni degree to be successful. 

Aristi my god u hit the nail right on the head To much is put on university level here which is a very low standard There is simply not enough jobs for graduates in Thailand  If they go overseas most employers don look at Thai degrees as good,But Thailand need electricians mechanics  hairdressers builders etc 

[Happyman58]

13 hours ago, Gecko123 said:

I follow crime news in Thailand pretty closely, and have recently noticed an uptick in the number of people citing inability to find work, and economic pressure as motivation behind theft crimes.

 

 

No i will re quote you on that  Most Thais are to lazy to find a job and stealing is much easier Eg I was walking in park yesterday (Retired men can do that) and i saw lots lots of young men in there 20s and 30 s just laying around sitting doing nothing Why are these men not at work?  It was a work day i am sure of it

[wakeupplease]

So what is being said is the country is heading down the Swanee, We all know that, so move on while we can. Education Um what is that around here?

[Thaidream]

There was a time when Thailand's economy was the pride of the World.  I believe during the 80s the Thai GDP was one of the World's best. Tourism was opened up and Visa rules were made much easier. The tourism sector was rising at a geometric rate. Exports moving up at double digit  levels

 

Much has happened since -both within the country and on a Worldwide basis. Overall, as people in Thailand become better economically- wages started to rise and so did  the Thai Baht making  some Thai products too costly.  In addition, other countries became more aggressive and successful on managing their economy and could produce goods and services at better quality and lower cost.  Those countries also decided learning English was a priority and did something about it.

Thailand, unfortunately, has regressed in this area. Also, foreign experts are not as welcome in Thailand and face a myriad of regulations from Visas to Work Permit issues. What is also interesting is there is already a ready made foreign workforce in Thailand. There are thousands and thousands of foreigners- 'retired' in Thailand with a number of skills such as engineering; management; public affairs; police etc who would be more than willing to hold a job either full or pert time for a  much smaller wage than a recruited foreign worker but the Thai bureaucracy refuses to even consider letting these people work without changing Visas; leaving the country to do it and other impediments. In addition, Thai business models keep filling positions with untrained; poorly educated; and incompetent lower and middle management and forcing out competent managers after they reach age 50.

 

Throw in an educational system that refuses to respond to a changing World and incipient  corruption and the future looks bleak. 

 

Thailand has a great potential to be a fully developed country but needs a dynamic leadership to push the country forward.

 

 

 

 

[Sid Celery]

Me no unnerstan

 

If there is full employment, how is the number of vacant jobs important?

 

Unless someone's been telling porkies... nah.

[Sid Celery]

22 minutes ago, Thaidream said:

There was a time when Thailand's economy was the pride of the World.  I believe during the 80s the Thai GDP was one of the World's best. Tourism was opened up and Visa rules were made much easier. The tourism sector was rising at a geometric rate. Exports moving up at double digit  levels

 

Much has happened since -both within the country and on a Worldwide basis. Overall, as people in Thailand become better economically- wages started to rise and so did  the Thai Baht making  some Thai products too costly.  In addition, other countries became more aggressive and successful on managing their economy and could produce goods and services at better quality and lower cost.  Those countries also decided learning English was a priority and did something about it.

Thailand, unfortunately, has regressed in this area. Also, foreign experts are not as welcome in Thailand and face a myriad of regulations from Visas to Work Permit issues. What is also interesting is there is already a ready made foreign workforce in Thailand. There are thousands and thousands of foreigners- 'retired' in Thailand with a number of skills such as engineering; management; public affairs; police etc who would be more than willing to hold a job either full or pert time for a  much smaller wage than a recruited foreign worker but the Thai bureaucracy refuses to even consider letting these people work without changing Visas; leaving the country to do it and other impediments. In addition, Thai business models keep filling positions with untrained; poorly educated; and incompetent lower and middle management and forcing out competent managers after they reach age 50.

 

Throw in an educational system that refuses to respond to a changing World and incipient  corruption and the future looks bleak. 

 

Thailand has a great potential to be a fully developed country but needs a dynamic leadership to push the country forward.

 

 

Agreed. And yet...

 

There are those folks, even on TV who claim the Thai economy is just peachy and going from strength to strength.

 

I don't have the economics training to argue with them, but I see the number of unsmiling Thai faces when I go shopping. I see the number of Thais attacking other Thais for trivial reasons. I see how unhappy the soldiers are, despite having ridiculous tall hats. I see how useless the police are.

 

So I think I call BS, and I think I recall how it was financial services people who brought us every financial crisis that I've been alive to see, so perhaps the muppets ought to keep a sock in it after all. Or go smilingly to prison like any decent criminal would.