Crypto Currencies

[The Deerhunter]

5 hours ago, sanemax said:

Oh right, so that means that Bitcoin isnt used any criminal activity

Like Kim Jong-un buying missile parts in Germany?

[shaurene]

6 hours ago, bkk_mike said:

But I'm willing to bet, as we all are, that we wish we'd bought some a few years ago (and forgotten about it without misplacing the keys).

 

Remember the first transaction where something was bought with Bitcoin was a pizza for 1,000 bitcoin.

That's an expensive pizza.

 

As for the money laundering - it's actually a LOT easier to money launder with normal currencies than with Bitcoin. All bitcoin transactions are recorded, so if anyone ever links you to a wallet - they can be 100% certain that you did the transaction. You have to transfer it to some other crypto-currency (like Monero) that is designed not to be trackable.

That pizza. I am sure the guy bought 2 pizzas and he had bought the bitcoins for $25 each. Yes easy to launder normal currencies but the governments are really concerned with the crypto, they will make it as hard as they can.

south Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Japan have put a number of conditions  in the regulations.

i was only talking about not buying at the end of last year and early this year. We would all be laughing if we had bought few years ago.

[ukrules]

6 hours ago, seancbk said:

I'd also add that some of us bought BTC at under $2000, not when it was at $20,000.    

I bought a bunch of Bitcoin for about $15 each back in 2012.

 

If I think the altcoin markets have bottomed out in the next few months or even years I will buy again.

 

Obviously you can make far more profit if whatever you're buying is cheap enough that it can double in price a few times before you sell it.

 

Never hesitate to sell if the price is going down, all these long term holders are just about a dumb as you can get.

[baansgr]

7 hours ago, Blackheart1916 said:

Check it out Suzanne, it's easy. I have one screen open at my desk, when prices start falling sell, when they bottom out and start rising, buy.  Each transaction takes about 10 seconds, has a 3% fee, 6% for a buy/sell cycle, so the trick is to get a minimum 10% difference to profit a minimum of 4%. Yes, doesn't always work, but I am still way in front. Ripple has been swinging way more than 10%, ethereum is more stable, those are the only two I am in ATM.

Bitcoin cant be sold in 10 seconds, no nattervwhere orvwhat platform. 

[Inepto Cracy]

I did pretty well with Bitcoin thank you.

Bought them at just under US$2800. I sold very luckily on my gut feel, at US19400.00. Even after the transaction fees etc, I think I did pretty well.

The problem with cryptocurrencies, is that the banks and governments are not in control. Stop right there.

If somebody steals your coins or from your wallet, like the recent case in Phuket, where a gunman held a gun to the head of a victim and made him transfer his BC's to the gunman's wallet, because your name is not linked to anything.

It is very difficult to report something as stolen, if you cant show something tangible with your name on it, like a share certificate.

Money has the same problem, so too does lottery tickets in Thailand?

Would I invest again in a cryptocurrency, I doooooon't think so.

The concept is great however.

[SGD]

12 hours ago, Blackheart1916 said:

Am I glad I invested in crypto currencies. Sold a heap of Ripple for around AU$1.80 last week, bought it back last night at $0.83. Sold some of my Ethereum at around $1500, held onto some, it dropped to $800, now up around $1000, still way above my initial purchase price of $420. there's money to be made if you are on the ball, sell high, buy low. Simple, really.

Yeah, simple :)

You're just gambling and got lucky.

 

Ex tier one investment bank proprietary trader speaking.

[ukrules]

3 hours ago, SGD said:

Yeah, simple :)

You're just gambling and got lucky.

 

Ex tier one investment bank proprietary trader speaking.

Sounds about right to me. It could tank to 10% of the current price overnight

[Blackheart1916]

6 hours ago, SGD said:

Yeah, simple :)

You're just gambling and got lucky.

 

Ex tier one investment bank proprietary trader speaking.

I agree to a point, but the basics are easy. Happy to do so, and risk what I currently have in. After all, life's a gamble!

[Blackheart1916]

2 hours ago, ukrules said:

Sounds about right to me. It could tank to 10% of the current price overnight

That's right, it could. It could also go up 50%. Hell of a ride!

[Blackheart1916]

10 hours ago, baansgr said:

Bitcoin cant be sold in 10 seconds, no nattervwhere orvwhat platform. 

Don't have any Bitcoin, only Ethereum and Ripple.

[seancbk]

15 hours ago, ukrules said:

I bought a bunch of Bitcoin for about $15 each back in 2012.

 

If I think the altcoin markets have bottomed out in the next few months or even years I will buy again.

 

Obviously you can make far more profit if whatever you're buying is cheap enough that it can double in price a few times before you sell it.

 

Never hesitate to sell if the price is going down, all these long term holders are just about a dumb as you can get.

I also bought some early, around 2011-12, only had maybe 10 coins and the cr@ppy external usb drive the private key was on died.   At the time I was more p!ssed off at losing some important work files and didn't even think about the bitcoin private key.  The drive was dead so I threw it in the bin.

Kind of fun now to think I threw away up to $200,000 (reality is I threw away about $120 as that was about what I paid for them).



 

[seancbk]

11 hours ago, SGD said:

Yeah, simple :)

You're just gambling and got lucky.

 

Ex tier one investment bank proprietary trader speaking.

As an ex trader, would you be gambling if you used your (presumed) technical analysis skills to read the charts and make buy and sell decisions based on the them?  

Is someone who buys shares in a company without really knowing anything about the company's plans, or the market they operate in, etc, but just based on something they heard or liking the company's products, gambling or investing?    They are hoping that the price goes up, but they have no idea if it will, so is that investing or gambling?

On the flip side, is a professional gambler who really can gain a slight edge over the house an investor or a gambler when he plays?  

Because as far as I'm concerned the more knowledge you have about the subject the less of a gamble it is.  
 

[4MyEgo]

On 07/02/2018 at 12:42 PM, Blackheart1916 said:

Am I glad I invested in crypto currencies. Sold a heap of Ripple for around AU$1.80 last week, bought it back last night at $0.83. Sold some of my Ethereum at around $1500, held onto some, it dropped to $800, now up around $1000, still way above my initial purchase price of $420. there's money to be made if you are on the ball, sell high, buy low. Simple, really.

Until it gets wiped off the board so to speak.

 

Have never seen anyone get rich quick, crypto-currency is a gamble, if your a gambler, then gamble away, there is only one way it id going to end up in the long run in my opinion.

 

I would rather invest in stocks, i.e. companies that have a proven track record and pay you a dividend for your investment, i.e. it can range from 3%-7% and also buy some new companies that are getting off the ground, you have opportunities to buy and sell as the shares rise and fall.

 

In crypt-currency you have the volatility of what people are prepared to pay for it on a daily basis, with no return, no central control, no nothing, like I said would rather have my money in a diversified share portfolio and know that markets fluctuate and I am making money from the returns and rises of the shares, and buying more when the markets dip.

 

If you want to gamble in this crypto-currency, then place your bets as they say, better chances at the races in my opinion, but wish you the best of luck either way.

[Blackheart1916]

27 minutes ago, 4MyEgo said:

Until it gets wiped off the board so to speak.

 

Have never seen anyone get rich quick, crypto-currency is a gamble, if your a gambler, then gamble away, there is only one way it id going to end up in the long run in my opinion.

 

I would rather invest in stocks, i.e. companies that have a proven track record and pay you a dividend for your investment, i.e. it can range from 3%-7% and also buy some new companies that are getting off the ground, you have opportunities to buy and sell as the shares rise and fall.

 

In crypt-currency you have the volatility of what people are prepared to pay for it on a daily basis, with no return, no central control, no nothing, like I said would rather have my money in a diversified share portfolio and know that markets fluctuate and I am making money from the returns and rises of the shares, and buying more when the markets dip.

 

If you want to gamble in this crypto-currency, then place your bets as they say, better chances at the races in my opinion, but wish you the best of luck either way.

Agreed 100%, and yes I am a gambler ( even day trader?). Gambling with what I can afford to lose, it's a hell of a ride!

[4MyEgo]

19 minutes ago, Blackheart1916 said:

Agreed 100%, and yes I am a gambler ( even day trader?). Gambling with what I can afford to lose, it's a hell of a ride!

Best of luck to yah 555

[lkn]

On 2/8/2018 at 8:45 AM, seancbk said:

As an ex trader, would you be gambling if you used your (presumed) technical analysis skills to read the charts and make buy and sell decisions based on the them?  

Bitcoin is a zero-sum game, trying to use technical analysis to win in the game is no different than using psychology to win at Monopoly: Still just a game with no actual value being created (as is normally the goal of an investment).

[phycokiller]

1 hour ago, lkn said:

Bitcoin is a zero-sum game, trying to use technical analysis to win in the game is no different than using psychology to win at Monopoly: Still just a game with no actual value being created (as is normally the goal of an investment).

same could be said for any payment system, paypal etc.

[lkn]

58 minutes ago, phycokiller said:

same could be said for any payment system, paypal etc.

What could be said for any payment system? That it is not an investment? Don’t think anyone has claimed putting your money into a PayPal account is an investment…

 

[phycokiller]

12 hours ago, lkn said:

What could be said for any payment system? That it is not an investment? Don’t think anyone has claimed putting your money into a PayPal account is an investment…

 

fiat has value because its easier then bartering. cryptos will be easier and cheaper then fiat, maybe not now but eventually, which is why they have value

[lkn]

5 hours ago, phycokiller said:

fiat has value because its easier then bartering. cryptos will be easier and cheaper then fiat, maybe not now but eventually, which is why they have value

How exactly will cryptos be easier and cheaper than fiat?

 

Crypto has to solve a problem that fiat does not, which gives it a handicap, so it’s counterintuitive to assume that it will be easier and cheaper to use.

[phycokiller]

5 hours ago, lkn said:

How exactly will cryptos be easier and cheaper than fiat?

 

Crypto has to solve a problem that fiat does not, which gives it a handicap, so it’s counterintuitive to assume that it will be easier and cheaper to use.

what problem is that?

[suzannegoh]

what problem is that?

At the top of the list would be Visa's and Mastercard's transaction fees. If bitcoin can process transaction cheaper and as quickly as them they they have something.

[lkn]

45 minutes ago, phycokiller said:

6 hours ago, lkn said:

Crypto has to solve a problem that fiat does not, which gives it a handicap, so it’s counterintuitive to assume that it will be easier and cheaper to use.

what problem is that?

When you use your debit card, the vendor that you are paying will contact your bank and make sure you have the funds, and put a lock on them (as one atomic transaction) to avoid double spending.

 

Here your bank functions as an authority that guarantees that you actually have enough money to make the purchase, and thus that the vendor gets paid, and this interaction generally feels instant (so maybe 200 ms?).

 

With decentralized cryptocurrencies there are no central authorities (this is the entire point of them), so the problem that has to be solved is, how can we be sure that user X has the money they claim they have, without any central authority to keep track of this?

 

The solution that is being used is to put all transactions from everyone since day zero in one shared ledger,.

 

This of course is easier said than done, because now everyone needs a copy of this ledger, but if it includes all transactions, won’t it be humongous? And that is why bitcoin is currently limited to allow only about 7 transactions per second, basically to ensure the ledger does not grow too quickly (but 7 transactions per second is absolutely useless for real-world usage, which is why the bitcoin community is currently looking into 2nd layer payment networks).

 

Another problem with this shared ledger is that when I check if you sent me money, how can I be sure I have the latest version of the ledger? Or even the “correct one” (yes, there will be many diverging ledgers, because this is a distributed network)? And that is why a transaction itself takes 10-19 minutes to be added to the ledger (the creation of one new block) *but* you should wait for at least 2-3 more blocks to be added to the ledger (blockchain), to be sure you’re looking at the right one (the “longest” blockchain is by definition the right one), so effectively a bitcoin transaction has a best-case time for reasonable sure confirmation of 30-50 minutes. As mentioned above, as they only process about 7 transactions per second, there can of course be a queue, which is why you’ll read many people say that their transaction took days, or was just never picked up.

 

So that is the problem that bitcoin has, which a centrally controlled currency does not have.

 

Note though that when I say centrally controlled, I really just mean one where we trust authorities, because when I spend money via my debit card, it will be my bank who approves the spending, which might not be the same bank as yours.

 

But for bitcoin, everything has to go to the same central ledger (blockchain). Imagine that internet connection between Asia and Europe is cut for 4 hours; now you will have diverging legers (blockchains) in Europe and Asia, once the connection comes back, there is no merging of the ledgers (blockchains), instead, the longest wins; so say that is Europe, that means all transactions done in Asia for the 4 hours without connection to Europe gets dropped, and no-one actually received their money — this would be absolutely catastrophic, if real money worked like that.

 

[phycokiller]

2 hours ago, lkn said:

When you use your debit card, the vendor that you are paying will contact your bank and make sure you have the funds, and put a lock on them (as one atomic transaction) to avoid double spending.

 

Here your bank functions as an authority that guarantees that you actually have enough money to make the purchase, and thus that the vendor gets paid, and this interaction generally feels instant (so maybe 200 ms?).

 

With decentralized cryptocurrencies there are no central authorities (this is the entire point of them), so the problem that has to be solved is, how can we be sure that user X has the money they claim they have, without any central authority to keep track of this?

 

The solution that is being used is to put all transactions from everyone since day zero in one shared ledger,.

 

This of course is easier said than done, because now everyone needs a copy of this ledger, but if it includes all transactions, won’t it be humongous? And that is why bitcoin is currently limited to allow only about 7 transactions per second, basically to ensure the ledger does not grow too quickly (but 7 transactions per second is absolutely useless for real-world usage, which is why the bitcoin community is currently looking into 2nd layer payment networks).

 

Another problem with this shared ledger is that when I check if you sent me money, how can I be sure I have the latest version of the ledger? Or even the “correct one” (yes, there will be many diverging ledgers, because this is a distributed network)? And that is why a transaction itself takes 10-19 minutes to be added to the ledger (the creation of one new block) *but* you should wait for at least 2-3 more blocks to be added to the ledger (blockchain), to be sure you’re looking at the right one (the “longest” blockchain is by definition the right one), so effectively a bitcoin transaction has a best-case time for reasonable sure confirmation of 30-50 minutes. As mentioned above, as they only process about 7 transactions per second, there can of course be a queue, which is why you’ll read many people say that their transaction took days, or was just never picked up.

 

So that is the problem that bitcoin has, which a centrally controlled currency does not have.

 

Note though that when I say centrally controlled, I really just mean one where we trust authorities, because when I spend money via my debit card, it will be my bank who approves the spending, which might not be the same bank as yours.

 

But for bitcoin, everything has to go to the same central ledger (blockchain). Imagine that internet connection between Asia and Europe is cut for 4 hours; now you will have diverging legers (blockchains) in Europe and Asia, once the connection comes back, there is no merging of the ledgers (blockchains), instead, the longest wins; so say that is Europe, that means all transactions done in Asia for the 4 hours without connection to Europe gets dropped, and no-one actually received their money — this would be absolutely catastrophic, if real money worked like that.

 

I think you are overdramatizing it a little. Most of these things arent happening in practice, in fact it works pretty well, its ease of use is part of the reason it has become so popular for speculation. admittedly bitcoin fees have been too high lately if you want  a fast transaction and are still high but that is being worked on and Im sure will be resolved eventually altho it wont necessarily be bitcoin that does it

[phycokiller]

3 hours ago, suzannegoh said:

 

At the top of the list would be Visa's and Mastercard's transaction fees. If bitcoin can process transaction cheaper and as quickly as them they they have something.

you can be sure some coin will eventually, and I think bitcoin fees are cheaper already if you are sending amounts larger then several hundred dollars

[ukrules]

2 hours ago, lkn said:

But for bitcoin, everything has to go to the same central ledger (blockchain). Imagine that internet connection between Asia and Europe is cut for 4 hours;

The connection between Asia and say the US would also need to be cut because transactions propogate randomly.

 

Even in the scenario of a large 'isolated continent' completely cut off from the rest of the world fork like you mention all those transactions will still be valid and most people won't know about it, when the new blocks eventually come in the transactions which are not included in the other side of the fork go back into the memory pool for confirmation. They don't just get deleted.

 

[suzannegoh]

I think you are overdramatizing it a little. Most of these things arent happening in practice, in fact it works pretty well, its ease of use is part of the reason it has become so popular for speculation. admittedly bitcoin fees have been too high lately if you want  a fast transaction and are still high but that is being worked on and Im sure will be resolved eventually altho it wont necessarily be bitcoin that does it

I notice that coins.co.th charges 3% just to transfer coins that you bought from them into an offline wallet. That's non-viable if BTC is to be viewed as a payment system rather than as a get rich quick scheme.

[lkn]

34 minutes ago, ukrules said:

Even in the scenario of a large 'isolated continent' completely cut off from the rest of the world fork like you mention all those transactions will still be valid and most people won't know about it, when the new blocks eventually come in the transactions which are not included in the other side of the fork go back into the memory pool for confirmation. They don't just get deleted.

That assumes they are still legal. If I’m smart, I instantly drain all the addresses I used in the last four hours (just move them to another address I control) and pay a higher fee, so that they are picked up before my old transactions that are now in the mempool.

 

[lkn]

47 minutes ago, phycokiller said:

I think you are overdramatizing it a little. Most of these things arent happening in practice, in fact it works pretty well, its ease of use is part of the reason it has become so popular for speculation. admittedly bitcoin fees have been too high lately if you want  a fast transaction and are still high but that is being worked on and Im sure will be resolved eventually altho it wont necessarily be bitcoin that does it

The example with a four hour disconnect between Asia and Europe might be an unlikely event, but otherwise my post was an objective description of the problems that bitcoin has to solve.

 

This was in response to your statement that bitcoin will be easier and cheaper than fiat in the future, which I call counterintuitive because of the problems outlined.

 

You may say it works fairly well in practice, but it will nonetheless always be handicapped compared to electronic money based on a system with trust, i.e. where we can have a clearing authority rather than have to use distributed consensus algorithms.

 

As for “Most of these things arent happening in practice”: They are! These are factual numbers I gave, and it’s actually closer to best-case. Where were you a few weeks ago when average transaction fee was $55 and delays were measured in days?

 

And:  “in fact it works pretty well, its ease of use is part of the reason it has become so popular for speculation.”: No, it’s original deflationary nature made it a target for speculation, there is virtually no-one using bitcoin for actual transactions these days, even many darknet exchanges have abandoned it, and bitcoin.org removed cheap and fast transactions from the description.

 

[phycokiller]

9 hours ago, suzannegoh said:

 

I notice that coins.co.th charges 3% just to transfer coins that you bought from them into an offline wallet. That's non-viable if BTC is to be viewed as a payment system rather than as a get rich quick scheme.

yes but thats the exchange fee, they probably charge that for all currencies, in any case if you were using it as a payment system you wouldnt have that fee