2 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

Pick any major product  from any country  and you will find that it almost invariably gets exported all over the world, and, often, some of it's biggest markets are on the other side of the world. And things have been that way since the Industrial Revolution. The gravity model of economics constantly has to factor in all kinds of international variables (which actually start to take away the 'gravity' aspect) in order to actually work.

But the issue isn't about any particular product; it's about products and services in the aggregate. Otherwise you're just cherry picking. What's more, why don't  you use this thing called the internet to look up the numbers for yourself? 

1 hour ago, nontabury said:

That is already the case for many low paid workers, while we are still in the E.U.  But for many selfish  remainers, they don’t count.

Leaving the EU is likely to improve worker's rights, conditions and standard of living?

 

Another example of why the 17M should be ignored for their own good! ?

1 hour ago, Khun Han said:

 

Pick any major product  from any country  and you will find that it almost invariably gets exported all over the world, and, often, some of it's biggest markets are on the other side of the world. And things have been that way since the Industrial Revolution. The gravity model of economics constantly has to factor in all kinds of international variables (which actually start to take away the 'gravity' aspect) in order to actually work.

Correct, slave labour and appalling conditions do offset shipping costs particularly if the product is small and light. 

 

So let's tear down all the trade barriers and let our workers compete head on...

 

Why do you think iPhones are assembled in China? To give you, the consumer, s cheap product? Think again!

 

You want your lamb noisettes to come from New Zealand? What about our farmers, crofters and the environment?

 

Next good idea...

3 hours ago, ilostmypassword said:

"But for many selfish  remainers, they don’t." What is the "they" in this sentence and what is it they "don't..."?

OH my word 55555555

Check what was said in POST 357

Then who knows what your next query might be

Dont forget to look at the pictures

10 minutes ago, oldlakey said:

OH my word 55555555

Check what was said in POST 357

Then who knows what your next query might be

Dont forget to look at the pictures

Thanks.

2 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

Thanks.

Dont mention it, I would normally have got to you a bit earlier but it took me a while to compose myself

Sooner T May tells Barnier to " go forth and multiply "..the better.
WTR is the way to go..then watch eu countries bottle crash when they realise that the " divorce " cheque will not be in the post.
My guess is that Barnier/Tusk/Drunker will be told to back off and give the UK the deal that suits the UK!!

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2 minutes ago, malagateddy said:

Sooner T May tells Barnier to " go forth and multiply "..the better.
WTR is the way to go..then watch eu countries bottle crash when they realise that the " divorce " cheque will not be in the post.
My guess is that Barnier/Tusk/Drunker will be told to back off and give the UK the deal that suits the UK!!

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It's amazing how arithmetically challenged some Brexiters are. 10 billion euros or pounds is a rounding error in the Germany economy and even more so in the entire EU.

And as for giving the UK what it wants, really? Then why wouldn't everybody in the EU demand the same? No, there is no way, the UK gets out of this unscathed.

We shall watch what happens in next few weeks..do not discount JRM taking over[emoji6]

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22 hours ago, stevenl said:

Just check with the poster I replied to. But it seems in your opinion only pro Brexit posts are allowed, other opinions are trolling.

Actually the exact opposite. At times it is like the Guardian in here.

 

 

Well from todays Times. so we didn't see the financial meltdown and we won't either. What will the remainers say when like previously project fear was all made up to keep the UK people in the dictatorial EU.

 

 

Politics

Brexit: Impact will be small, say economists

Sam Coates, Deputy Political Editor

March 5 2018, 12:01am, The Times

All articles now feature tags allowing you to explore related topics and articles

Dismiss

• Brexit

Treasury forecasts on Brexit have been criticised for being too pessimistic.

A research paper entitled How the Economics Profession Got it Wrong on Brexit, sent out by the campaign group Briefings for Brexit, found that the decision to take the UK out of the EU will have only a small negative impact on economic growth over the coming years, and is likely to have a minor impact on living standards.

The authors, Ken Coutts and Graham Gudgin, who are honorary research associates at the CBR, and Jordan Buchanan of the Ulster University Economic Policy Centre, draw conclusions they say are in contrast to the large negative impacts predicted by others and particularly by the Treasury.

The Treasury reports pre-referendum used a “gravity” model while the leaked Brexit forecasts prepared for cabinet ministers last month used a “general equilibrium model”, both of which the report criticizes.

 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/brexit-impact-will-be-small-say-economists-m6fq5xvvg

 

 

4 minutes ago, Laughing Gravy said:

 

Well from todays Times. so we didn't see the financial meltdown and we won't either. What will the remainers say when like previously project fear was all made up to keep the UK people in the dictatorial EU.

 

 

Politics

Brexit: Impact will be small, say economists

Sam Coates, Deputy Political Editor

March 5 2018, 12:01am, The Times

All articles now feature tags allowing you to explore related topics and articles

Dismiss

• Brexit

Treasury forecasts on Brexit have been criticised for being too pessimistic.

A research paper entitled How the Economics Profession Got it Wrong on Brexit, sent out by the campaign group Briefings for Brexit, found that the decision to take the UK out of the EU will have only a small negative impact on economic growth over the coming years, and is likely to have a minor impact on living standards.

The authors, Ken Coutts and Graham Gudgin, who are honorary research associates at the CBR, and Jordan Buchanan of the Ulster University Economic Policy Centre, draw conclusions they say are in contrast to the large negative impacts predicted by others and particularly by the Treasury.

The Treasury reports pre-referendum used a “gravity” model while the leaked Brexit forecasts prepared for cabinet ministers last month used a “general equilibrium model”, both of which the report criticizes.

 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/brexit-impact-will-be-small-say-economists-m6fq5xvvg

 

 

Like all the other panoply of predictions, they are exactly that - predictions. These two gentlemen (Coutts and Gudgin) have been pushing the narratrive of optimism for a few years now, however they seem very much to be in the minority. Yet your opening salvo states with supreme cofidence:

 

6 minutes ago, Laughing Gravy said:

we didn't see the financial meltdown and we won't either.

I repeat - you are trying to make fact a prediction, and one that flies in the face of most other assessments. 

11 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

Like all the other panoply of predictions, they are exactly that - predictions. These two gentlemen (Coutts and Gudgin) have been pushing the narratrive of optimism for a few years now, however they seem very much to be in the minority. Yet your opening salvo states with supreme cofidence:

 

I repeat - you are trying to make fact a prediction, and one that flies in the face of most other assessments. 

The predictions which have proven to be totally false and was the heart of project fear. Are you going to admit that they were lies. These so called predictions from the countries leading people in the government AKA George Osborne and the governor for the bank of England.

 

What I am making fact is that the predictions were incorrect and like the boy who cries wolf, nobody believes it anymore.

 

It seems to me that the constant claiming of facts from some remainers on here now for 2 years with the could, maybe, possible, supposedly, suggests, allegedly, etc etc is...boring.

Lets face facts here R/R.
You are a remoaner..thats your choice..whilst other posters including myself are LEAVERS.
Do not take things too seriously..life is too short..why not just enjoy the banter.cut and thrust??
Dunno what you'll say or do when JRM is new PM [emoji23][emoji23][emoji23]

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2 minutes ago, Laughing Gravy said:

The predictions which have proven to be totally false and was the heart of project fear. Are you going to admit that they were lies. These so called predictions from the countries leading people in the government AKA George Osborne and the governor for the bank of England.

 

What I am making fact is that the predictions were incorrect and like the boy who cries wolf, nobody believes it anymore.

There was no doubt about it, Project Fear was a thing, but we are still in the EU so we are still benefiting from the structure upon which it provides us to trade. But these predictions are talking about what will happen when that platform is removed and we are free to forge ahead on our own. At this point, all we have are suppositions, all inherently biased depending upon the author's leanings; we cling to those most closely aligned with our own hopes, but that doesn't guarantee that they will transpire.

2 minutes ago, malagateddy said:

Dunno what you'll say or do when JRM is new PM

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I will commiserate with my Engish friends that their country is being run by a man who neither understand nor wishes to understand how life is for those not born into money. At the same time, I will be eternally grateful that the Scots made the correct choice and elected to withdraw from the United Kingdom. 

 

1 minute ago, RuamRudy said:

There was no doubt about it, Project Fear was a thing, but we are still in the EU so we are still benefiting from the structure upon which it provides us to trade. But these predictions are talking about what will happen when that platform is removed and we are free to forge ahead on our own. At this point, all we have are suppositions, all inherently biased depending upon the author's leanings; we cling to those most closely aligned with our own hopes, but that doesn't guarantee that they will transpire.

Except of course that there is a huge body of economic history to show that if you decrease trade with the markets nearest you, you're not going to make up the difference, much less exceed it, by going further afield.

That doesn't mean the Brexit will be a disaster. Maybe a hard Brexit will be a temporary disaster. But in the long run, just a slowing of economic growth. And maybe that's worth it to the Brexiters.

Now I suspect you are on medication called " wishful thinking "

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Just now, RuamRudy said:

There was no doubt about it, Project Fear was a thing, but we are still in the EU so we are still benefiting from the structure upon which it provides us to trade. But these predictions are talking about what will happen when that platform is removed and we are free to forge ahead on our own. At this point, all we have are suppositions, all inherently biased depending upon the author's leanings; we cling to those most closely aligned with our own hopes, but that doesn't guarantee that they will transpire.

Which is precisely why it's sensible to largely ignore 'expert'/media and politicians' long-term predictions.

 

Short-term predictions are far easier and more obvious.  e.g. Everyone knew that the money-markets supported remain, so a leave vote was bound to lead to a fall in sterling.

 

Long-term predictions are almost impossible, as things change so quickly.  If you think I'm wrong - ask cameron !

I will commiserate with my Engish friends that their country is being run by a man who neither understand nor wishes to understand how life is for those not born into money. At the same time, I will be eternally grateful that the Scots made the correct choice and elected to withdraw from the United Kingdom. 
 

JRM is highly unlikely to be the next U.K. PM.

Scotland is & will continue to be part of the United Kingdom.

I only commiserate that the SNP has Sturgeon & propped up by the Greens, rather embarrassing effect of the last GE....oh well never mind.

I like JRM however his personal views are what prevents him from taking over from PMTM.


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5 hours ago, RuamRudy said:

Like all the other panoply of predictions, they are exactly that - predictions. These two gentlemen (Coutts and Gudgin) have been pushing the narratrive of optimism for a few years now, however they seem very much to be in the minority. Yet your opening salvo states with supreme cofidence:

 

I repeat - you are trying to make fact a prediction, and one that flies in the face of most other assessments. 

Why is it that only predictions from the remoaners, are valid.

14 minutes ago, nontabury said:

Why is it that only predictions from the remoaners, are valid.

If you want to go back to read properly the comment I was responding to, you will note that LG wrote, "we didn't see the financial meltdown and we won't either."

I was merely pointing out that he was basing his statement of fact upon a prediction. I was not suggesting that the prediction had less validity than the many assessments to the contrary, however I was pointing out that LG cannot state with 100% certainty that what the two gentmen wrote will definitely come to pass.

27 minutes ago, citybiker said:

JRM is highly unlikely to be the next U.K. PM.

Who do you think will replace TM when she the party rulers decide that it is time for her to go?

 

28 minutes ago, citybiker said:

Scotland is & will continue to be part of the United Kingdom.

A bold assertion considering the utter disaster that the Tories are making of Brexit, and the failure of Labour to show a decisive alternative.

 

31 minutes ago, citybiker said:

I only commiserate that the SNP has Sturgeon & propped up by the Greens, rather embarrassing effect of the last GE....oh well never mind.

In Holyrood? It wasn't part of the last GE - but would you not agree that it is remarkable that, after 10 years in government, the SNP still commands a near majority under a system deliberately designed to prevent majorities from being realised? If only the Col Ruth could manage that - then again, how many of the Tory MSPs are constituency MSPs and how many had to scrape enough votes via the list system? Even Col Ruth herself cannot get elected via the constituency way and has to skulk in the back door.

 

But, going back to my point about 10 years in power - the SNP still have the majority of Scottish MPs in Westminster too. Of course, you can spin a distant second place as a decisive win if you like (God knows, RD has bought some time using that guff) but bums on seats are what counts, and while 1 single Tory representative is shameful in itself, thankfully the shower are still very much in the minority

 

37 minutes ago, citybiker said:

I like JRM however his personal views are what prevents him from taking over from PMTM.

I dislike him intensely - like Boris, he has cynically created a public persona that belies his true intents. Unfortunatey, unlike Boris, he has restraint and self control. But underneath the Bertie Wooster persona is a man who happily votes to remove the most basic of life support from the most vulnerable of people and celebrates the expansion of food banks, all the while helping those with the most to avoid any form of taxes. My disgust and loathing of him and his like is intense.

We are continually told by the remoaners, that those who voted for Britexit are the old and the uneducated. So today it will come as a shock to them, to find that in the Italian elections, two of the main leaders, are university educated and surprise, surprise, or is it,  That the leader of the largest party is an old man of 31 years. So this leads me to wonder, at what age is one old enough to  consider and understand all the ramifications of any elections. Should we follow the SNP, who unsuccessfully,in an attempt to gain power, lowered the age to 16 yrs,  

Or perhaps the remainders would preface an age closer to their own.

@Ruamrudy

I like Ruth Davidson, IMO far better than Sturgeon.

TM’s replacement? We’ll wait & see however I very much doubt it’ll be JRM.

Tories & Brexit, it’s ongoing so until we know the final outcome (apart from fact the U.K. is leaving) I’ll refrain from any political criticism.


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21 minutes ago, nontabury said:

We are continually told by the remoaners, that those who voted for Britexit are the old and the uneducated. So today it will come as a shock to them, to find that in the Italian elections, two of the main leaders, are university educated and surprise, surprise, or is it,  That the leader of the largest party is an old man of 31 years. So this leads me to wonder, at what age is one old enough to  consider and understand all the ramifications of any elections. Should we follow the SNP, who unsuccessfully,in an attempt to gain power, lowered the age to 16 yrs,  

Or perhaps the remainders would preface an age closer to their own.

It will undoubtedly come as a surprise to you that 31 year old leader of the largest party is not in favor of Italexit.

39 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

It will undoubtedly come as a surprise to you that 31 year old leader of the largest party is not in favor of Italexit.

 

 It does not come as a surprise to me, to know that you are wrong. “Again”. 

 

The M5S is variously considered populist,^[15][16] anti-establishment,^[16][17]environmentalist,^[18] alter-globalist,^[19] and Eurosceptic.^[2

 

He has given many interviews, stating that he is anti E.U. and is prepared to seriously consider, leaving the E.U

 

Mr Salvini has often vouched for the British decision to leave the European Union, claiming Italy could be the next country to leave the bloc under his command.

 

 

38 minutes ago, nontabury said:

We are continually told by the remoaners, that those who voted for Britexit are the old and the uneducated. So today it will come as a shock to them, to find that in the Italian elections, two of the main leaders, are university educated and surprise, surprise, or is it,  That the leader of the largest party is an old man of 31 years.

 

 

Remainers haven't said anything of the kind. One of several scientific studies was undertaken by researchers at the University of Leicester who concluded: ".....had just 3 per cent more of the population gone to university, the UK would probably not be leaving the EU. "

 

The fact you think these studies are somehow called into question because 2 people in Italy want to leave the EU, only further reinforces the conclusion of these studies.  This is all before we get to the 'word pictures' made by other people with appalling spelling that you keep posting.

 

 
Remainers haven't said anything of the kind. One of several scientific studies was undertaken by researchers at the University of Leicester who concluded: ".....had just 3 per cent more of the population gone to university, the UK would probably not be leaving the EU. "
 
The fact you think these studies are somehow called into question because 2 people in Italy want to leave the EU, only further reinforces the conclusion of these studies.  This is all before we get to the 'word pictures' made by other people with appalling spelling that you keep posting.
 

A whole 3% more..other tangible factors not considered? Like some elements of the younger voters not bothering their arse to vote.

Just one scientific study? Complete with variable samples obviously.

I’m aware of how universities work, I mostly enjoyed my time yet also know the academic focus and agenda.




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2 hours ago, Air Smiles said:

 

Remainers haven't said anything of the kind. One of several scientific studies was undertaken by researchers at the University of Leicester who concluded: ".....had just 3 per cent more of the population gone to university, the UK would probably not be leaving the EU. "

 

The fact you think these studies are somehow called into question because 2 people in Italy want to leave the EU, only further reinforces the conclusion of these studies.  This is all before we get to the 'word pictures' made by other people with appalling spelling that you keep posting.

 

More hogwash! Nontaburi didn't even mention your precious study.