Brexit has created chaos in Britain – nobody voted for this

[RuamRudy]

2 minutes ago, Eloquent pilgrim said:

You won’t, there isn't any, it is just speculation, if there was any verifiable data people would quote it rather than post this meaningless exercise in self indulgence. Meanwhile, the taxpayer funds people like Ailsa Henderson to write this pro-independence propaganda

Have you seen the study to confirm whether the dataset is valid? Is your omission of her academic title deliberately intended to cast doubts upon her qualifications? As a native of Ontario, I wonder what skin you think she has in the game.

[RuamRudy]

3 minutes ago, Eloquent pilgrim said:

An official source would be government statistics, in other words, verifiable demographic facts, not a study by a professor who has failed to provide any details (that I can find) of how she arrived at her speculative conclusion

The article is from the Scottish equivalent of the Daily Star - they don't really do big number, complicated theories or indepth analyses. I would suggest that the lack of context was an editorial decision from the newspaper rather than an academic failing from the study's authors.

 

Here is a link to the professor's profile - of course, you are free to doubt it as much as you like, but her credentials and background suggest that her standing is good.

[nauseus]

12 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

Have you seen the study to confirm whether the dataset is valid? Is your omission of her academic title deliberately intended to cast doubts upon her qualifications? As a native of Ontario, I wonder what skin you think she has in the game.

No data with this link. But this one  https://esrc.ukri.org/research/our-research/scottish-referendum-study-2014/

explains that it was a study before the referendum of 3000 people. No real data or method explained here either. 

 

So, yes I have doubts. It is not analysis of the actual total vote in any sense,

 

Beer o'clock. Damn, now I'm late.

 

 

 

 

Edited May 7, 2018 by nauseus

[RuamRudy]

9 minutes ago, malagateddy said:

R/r..please try and understand that the average men/women who voted for Brexit voted because of the lack of quality of a lot of the eu immigrants..and you know fine well what I mean.
They voted with their hearts and feelings.

Fully agree - I don't think anyone voted on a whim regardless of whether they voted to remain or to leave.

 

10 minutes ago, malagateddy said:

They also saw through the Project Fear lies.

But that's just it - we didn't have the full picture. Take a look at the article I posted - all these little things that nobody really thought about; the greatest manifestations, of course, being the Spain - Gib and IE/NI borders, but there are so many other factors that are now coming out of the woodwork that one has to wonder - is the reduction in the number of Poles and Romanians really worth all the upsets that these unexpected things are going to result in?

 

13 minutes ago, malagateddy said:

Best to accept the result I think.

Surely, if Project Fear has been debunked, there is no problem putting the final proposal on the table for a second referendum? Because, as you say, people have seen through the 'lies' and the doomsday scenario has not played out. What is to fear from one final ratification of the proposed deal?

 

14 minutes ago, malagateddy said:

Question for you..nothing bout bjk you'll be glad bout that.
Maybe you can tell me why reps from Rothchilds..Goldman Sachs..the likes of Soros..Blair..etc can have behind closed door meetings with Junkard the jobsworth?
Do the aforementioned represent any eu country???

Now here, you and I are closer than you may think; but they are all at it - Rothermere, Murdoch, Banks. The people pushing for Brexit are no better than those pushing for remain, and their intentions are no less selfish.

[Eloquent pilgrim]

10 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

Have you seen the study to confirm whether the dataset is valid? Is your omission of her academic title deliberately intended to cast doubts upon her qualifications? As a native of Ontario, I wonder what skin you think she has in the game.

In my first reply to the figures you posted, I replied naming her as Professor Ailsa Henderson, so as is was not long ago, I thought you might have remembered that she was a professor.

 

I have not read her study, I could not find it, only a conclusion and the pretty diagrams …. have you read it ??

 

Not sure what her being a native of Ontario has to do with anything, unless you think that means that she cannot possibly have a pro-independence leaning

[malagateddy]

Gotta ask exactly a quite futile scottish indy ref has to do with the Brexit vote..which was a BRITISH vote

Sent from my SM-G7102 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[RuamRudy]

4 minutes ago, nauseus said:

No data with this link. But this one  https://esrc.ukri.org/research/our-research/scottish-referendum-study-2014/

explains that it was a study before the referendum of 3000 people. No real data or method explained here either. 

 

So, yes I have doubts. It is not analysis of the actual total vote in any sense,

 

Beer o'clock. Damn, now I'm late.

 

 

 

 

"These individuals will be surveyed before the referendum to identify the factors that influenced vote intention and the likelihood of voting and twice after the referendum to identify whether and why people voted the way they did. This will be a panel study, using the same respondents before and after the referendum in order to determine how intentions translate into behaviour, and to see how expectations influence reactions to the referendum result."

 

Copied from your link - emphasis mine. Enjoy your beer.

[RuamRudy]

3 minutes ago, malagateddy said:

Gotta ask exactly a quite futile scottish indy ref has to do with the Brexit vote..which was a BRITISH vote

Sent from my SM-G7102 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

Unlike yourself, I am unable to ignore the bait when it's on offer

[Eloquent pilgrim]

14 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

The article is from the Scottish equivalent of the Daily Star - they don't really do big number, complicated theories or indepth analyses. I would suggest that the lack of context was an editorial decision from the newspaper rather than an academic failing from the study's authors.

 

Here is a link to the professor's profile - of course, you are free to doubt it as much as you like, but her credentials and background suggest that her standing is good.

I have not cast doubt on the Professor's credentials, just the conclusions that she has made, which I feel is fair comment on my part, given that there appears to be no verifiable data to support her conclusions however smart she may be.

 

P.S. .... sorry I never open 3rd party links 

Edited May 7, 2018 by Eloquent pilgrim

[Eloquent pilgrim]

I'm with nauseus on this one ..... enough debating for today, time to open a very nice bottle of NZ Pinot Gris that I bought this morning ??  ??

Edited May 7, 2018 by Eloquent pilgrim

[aright]

16 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

Quote

 

Surely, if Project Fear has been debunked, there is no problem putting the final proposal on the table for a second referendum? Because, as you say, people have seen through the 'lies' and the doomsday scenario has not played out. What is to fear from one final ratification of the proposed deal?

 

I think after we leave the EU, and a suitable period of time has elapsed(say 5 years)I would have no objection to a one sentence question in a new referendum.

 

"Do you want to join a super national state of Europe and be governed by 28 unelected and unaccountable public sector millionaires who can retire at 50 on a full EU pension at British taxpayers expense in return for running an economic protection racket that hugely inflates the price of food, clothing ,fuel etc.for its 500 million citizens.

[Jip99]

2 minutes ago, Eloquent pilgrim said:

I'm with nauseous on this one ..... enough debating for today, time to open a very nice bottle of NZ Pinot Gris that I bought this morning ??  ??

 

Bought in Thailand ?

 

 

I can’t live with tax on NZ quality wine..

[aright]

1 minute ago, Jip99 said:

 

Bought in Thailand ?

 

 

I can’t live with tax on NZ quality wine..

My evening tipple will be a Marlborough Sauvignon Blanc  which I bought on special at Morrisons for six quid. What would you pay in LOS? 

[Jip99]

9 minutes ago, aright said:

My evening tipple will be a Marlborough Sauvignon Blanc  which I bought on special at Morrisons for six quid. What would you pay in LOS? 

 

Trump your Sauvignon with this for €6.

 

Wouldn’t pay 1,200 Baht+ for it in Thailand though.

 

 

Edited May 7, 2018 by Jip99

[Eloquent pilgrim]

31 minutes ago, Jip99 said:

 

Bought in Thailand ?

 

 

I can’t live with tax on NZ quality wine..

Yes, bought at Villa Market, Hua Hin. I noticed that when the new alcohol tax kicked in a few weeks ago, all the cheap wines sold out very quickly, but the more expensive ones stayed on the shelf at pre-increase prices. They now look good value, so I have been hoovering them up and making a bit of a collection

[Grouse]

6 hours ago, Eloquent pilgrim said:

 

I thought all of the project fear scaremongering had been dispensed with by now; however, allow me to put your mind at rest regarding Japanese and other foreign companies in the UK.

 

Nissan was the first overseas carmaker to sign an investment agreement in the UK after the Brexit referendum. In 2016 Nissan said it would build the next-generation Qashqai and X-Trail SUVs at the Japanese carmaker’s Sunderland plant.

 

Toyota have said it will build the next generation of its Auris hatchback at the  Burnaston plant in Derbyshire.The move follows a £240m investment by Toyota in the plant in 2017 aided by a £21.3m UK government grant, to retool the plant in preparation for a new set of models.

 

Honda has made a big commitment to its Swindon plant, when they announced the site would become the sole producer of its Civic hatchback

 

Even BMW, said last year that it will assemble the first all-electric Mini at its Oxford plant, having previously said it could make the car overseas because of Brexit. It said it is pleased with the quality of workmanship at the plant and that the “made in Britain” stamp is a strong selling point for Mini in overseas markets

 

These commitments from huge overseas companies, have secured thousands of well paid jobs for skilled British workers in the automotive industry. The faith and trust that these investors have shown in the UK is something we could do with a lot more of from most remainers; instead we get a perpetually bitter and negative narrative, which gives the impression that they do not want our great country to be successful.

 

As to your question “why on earth would anyone put future investment at risk” I suggest you write to Toyota, Nissan, Honda and BMW and ask them

Are you party to TM's secret deal to indemnify foreign car companies against any downside of Brexit?

 

Personally, I feel TM has no choice but to keep the customs union.

[billd766]

4 hours ago, sandyf said:

We already have the answer, I have to assume a memory lapse or is he part of your Project Fear.

 

"Huge Japanese firms with big plants in the UK – such as Nissan and Toyota, who sell most of their British-made cars into the EU – are, he says, treading water, biding their time before deciding whether to relocate part or all of their businesses, so they can continue to be based inside the single market after March 2019. "

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/apr/22/koji-tsuruoka-japan-ambassador-britain-brexit-single-market

 

A report by one of the most biased anti Brexit "newspapers" on the UK market.

[aright]

31 minutes ago, Grouse said:

 

Personally, I feel TM has no choice but to keep the customs union.

The practical effect of remaining in the Customs Union leaves the UK with all the existing EU controls in place but with virtually no influence. This would not be tolerated by Fox , Rees-Mogg, Johnson, Gove and others and more importantly by me.....Joe Public.

It would make Mrs May and the Conservatives unelectable for the foreseeable future.

I can't believe they are going to sign there own death warrant. 

[Grouse]

2 hours ago, aright said:

The practical effect of remaining in the Customs Union leaves the UK with all the existing EU controls in place but with virtually no influence. This would not be tolerated by Fox , Rees-Mogg, Johnson, Gove and others and more importantly by me.....Joe Public.

It would make Mrs May and the Conservatives unelectable for the foreseeable future.

I can't believe they are going to sign there own death warrant. 

I agree. She is certainly trapped between a rock and a hard place! Could be an interesting week!

 

I can't see the Cons being unelectable; there's no real choice. A constitutional crisis is on the cards.....

[oldwelshman]

On ‎28‎/‎02‎/‎2018 at 8:27 AM, Grouse said:

German car makers don't give a stuff. They know UK demographic As and Bs will continue to buy their beautifully engineered and produced vehicles even if they cost 10% more (in reality they will use the duty as an excuse to raise prices further). No, the biggest damage will be to cheap Japanese cars assembled in the U.K. With complex supply chains.

 

I will continue to guzzle St Agur regardless ?

Not only car companies, many medical engineering companies like mine also have complex global supply chain ( partly because of lack of manufacturing/materials in UK) . Also the issues of customs etc, this will impact items such as food and short life items due to customs clearance requirements, in fact the whole supply chain between EU and UK will obviously take longer to clear. Not forgetting passenger movements also. Then you have to consider all the regulatory standards which make trading in EU easier due to common standards. Take a professional 1/2 an hour to sort out trade deals? Impossible.

 

[Scott]

A post violating Fair Use Policy has been removed.  

 

[Jip99]

2 hours ago, Grouse said:

I agree. She is certainly trapped between a rock and a hard place! Could be an interesting week!

 

I can't see the Cons being unelectable; there's no real choice. A constitutional crisis is on the cards.....

 

 

Ironic really.....

 

The void that you have identified cries out for a middle of the road/rightish party like.......... the UKIP that previously polled 4m  votes...

 

Now a spent force- like the Lib Dems, who probably only increased their recent votes because there was nowhere else for the anti Conservative/anti Labour voter to turn to.

 

Just imagine a party that focused on the 52% Brexit majority (ignored the right wing extremist element only interested in turning Britain white again)  and had strength of leadership - a David Cameron with balls.

 

I could vote for them.

[aright]

2 hours ago, oldwelshman said:

Not only car companies, many medical engineering companies like mine also have complex global supply chain ( partly because of lack of manufacturing/materials in UK) . Also the issues of customs etc, this will impact items such as food and short life items due to customs clearance requirements, in fact the whole supply chain between EU and UK will obviously take longer to clear. Not forgetting passenger movements also. Then you have to consider all the regulatory standards which make trading in EU easier due to common standards. Take a professional 1/2 an hour to sort out trade deals? Impossible.

 

Am I missing something?

We currently import perishables from Africa, Egypt, USA and many other non EU countries without any reported problems. Are you saying when we leave the EU the British government are going to change procedures to make it more difficult to bring these goods into the country?

 

[Jip99]

7 minutes ago, aright said:

Am I missing something?

We currently import perishables from Africa, Egypt, USA and many other non EU countries without any reported problems. Are you saying when we leave the EU the British government are going to change procedures to make it more difficult to bring these goods into the country?

 

 

Another entry for Project Fear...... doesn’t have to be true - or even plausible....just something capable of sowing a seed of doubt..

[oldhippy]

28 minutes ago, Jip99 said:

 

 

Ironic really.....

 

The void that you have identified cries out for a middle of the road/rightish party like.......... the UKIP that previously polled 4m  votes...

 

Now a spent force- like the Lib Dems, who probably only increased their recent votes because there was nowhere else for the anti Conservative/anti Labour voter to turn to.

 

Just imagine a party that focused on the 52% Brexit majority (ignored the right wing extremist element only interested in turning Britain white again)  and had strength of leadership - a David Cameron with balls.

 

I could vote for them.

If David Cameron had balls, he would not be David Cameron.

 

[tebee]

Leavers are like those who said the the Great War would be over by Christmas.
None of them had a plan to finish the war.
None of them could name a single tangible benefit of fighting.
But they all blamed the soldiers for not fighting hard enough when the war dragged on.
 

[George FmplesdaCosteedback]

To Be Forwarded

 

[tebee]

  Another example of joined up government....

 

 

   "Liam Fox’s trade department is set to axe hundreds of officials who promote British exports to countries such as China and Brazil, in cuts that will undermine the government’s claim to be building “a global Britain”."
 

https://www.ft.com/content/81d8cd10-5119-11e8-b24e-cad6aa67e23e

[flyingdoc]

We are all waiting for some meaningful negotiations to be implemented shortly, including the debacle over the Irish Republic/N.I border debacle.  But will it happen?

[soalbundy]

1 minute ago, flyingdoc said:

We are all waiting for some meaningful negotiations to be implemented shortly, including the debacle over the Irish Republic/N.I border debacle.  But will it happen?

Not as long as it can be fudged.