Your Predictions on Living in Thailand 10 Years from Now

[Sumarianson]

Thailand will not be recognizable in 5 years let alone 10. In fact the world won't be recognizable.

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[Thaidream]

1.  Land values will continue to rise nationwide and reach levels in Central City Bangkok that only the wealthy can afford thus forcing certain businesses to relocate further away as well as the middle class and the lower classes to continue the move away from the city.  (Much the same has happened in New York; London and Tokyo)

 

In 10 years neither Nana Plaza or Cowboy will exist in their current sites- the land is much too valuable to have these type of business in a wealthy central city.  They also will relocate away from the city in diminished numbers.  There will be less because they won't be able to find 'staff' and Western customers will have moved onto other countries.

 

Traffic will be restricted in the Central City by increased daily pricing like Singapore.

 

Thailand will continue to be an exporting nation and take business away from China as Chinese prices will rise too high and they will lose part of their export market. In addition- the Pacific Rim will see unparalleled growth fueled by the US who has rejoined the Trans Pacific Partnership. The Thai economy

will rise to around 20th in the World.

 

2.  Since Thailand will become more expensive and Exchange rates drop a little more- the requirements for long stay will go up to 1 Million Baht per year or a pension income of $85,000 per month. Anyone still here then will have their income requirements 'grandfathered' at their current rate.

 

There won't be a preponderance of Westerners retired in Thailand but mostly other Asians or Indians. Westerners can't afford Thailand like before but I don't predict Chinese dominance. The Chinese economy will have started to fail and stagnate and the Communist Party will have problems keeping its citizens docile. Most who came to Thailand in the past won't return because of  rising prices and others won't want to risk spending money in a climate of recession.

 

3.   What happens in Europe and America and Australia will have a direct bearing on what happens in Thailand.  Trump and Merkel will be gone  and Brexit a  reality.  The UK will have recovered economically and the Pound  about where it is now.  The rest of Europe will be in recession due to its reliance on Russia for energy needs and  as well as the immigrant population causing continual unrest; Greece .Spain and Portugal will have exited the EU. The Euro will have lost 20% of it's value causing Europeans to stop visiting Thailand as they can't afford it.

 

The US will still have the biggest economy in the World and with Trump gone will again rely on South American and Central American Immigration to provide needed workers and fuel it's economic strength wit huge investments in Thailand. In addition- the Us will finally reduce its defence budget and stop getting involved in foreign wars saving trillions of dollars which it can invest abroad.

 

Australia will be the World's fastest growing economy fuelled by new found natural resources and vast settlements in its Western and Norther Territories.  Australia will invest heavily in Thailand and import many Thai products helping the Thai economy to grow. Due to huge growth-  many people will relocate from Mainland Europe to Australia in search of jobs and wealth. At some point if successful- Thailand will be back on their tourist map.

 

4.  The one key area in all of this is what will happen politically in Thailand and that is a very difficult question to answer.  I expect the current regime to stay in power through the voting mechanism they have established . How this will play out over the next 10 years will definitely  affect every prediction made  and this an area in which only the Thai people will be able to decide. 

 

[Hummin]

2 hours ago, janclaes47 said:

 

Tax heaven in the EU?

 

 

Did you ever check current property prices in Spain? Compared Thailand is dirt cheap.

I compare to prices before and after 2008. I know firsthand how the marked was and are today, and guess what, they still building and planning new projects. Never ending bubble, but the only one who loose, is those who is to old, and wanted to sell out, or those who invested all they had, and now, own more money to the bank, than their property is worth. A regulation of the marked will come here as well, and if the local marked for middle class will not be disturbed? Im not sure!

 

Anyway, this is Forbes article for 2018, and I know Portugal have worked hard the last decade to be attractive to elderly people for retirement. 

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/laurabegleybloom/2018/01/08/quit-your-job-and-move-abroad-the-cheapest-places-to-live-in-2018/#2a77844b2614

 

Learn how to retire in Portugal 

https://www.expatica.com/pt/finance/retire-in-portugal-retire-to-portugal_908573.html

 

5 reasons to retire in Portugal

https://money.usnews.com/money/blogs/on-retirement/articles/2017-05-09/5-reasons-to-retire-in-portugal

 

Anyway, I guess the majority of TV is only interested in the beer price and cheep ladies, so :D

 

I guess europe ladies will be to expensive, so my prediction, is TV members will go where they find cheep beer and ladies! It might be Thailand still in 10 years. 

[ExpatOilWorker]

A lot of posters seem to predict the future based on the past, which intuitively make sense, but often it is only valid for short time intervals, week-months, maybe even a few years, but rarely 10-20 years into the future.

 

We could have a real-estate, banking correction or stagflation within the next 10 years and that will throw all the tourist numbers, exchange rates and cost of living predictions out the window. 

[Hummin]

32 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

A lot of posters seem to predict the future based on the past, which intuitively make sense, but often it is only valid for short time intervals, week-months, maybe even a few years, but rarely 10-20 years into the future.

 

We could have a real-estate, banking correction or stagflation within the next 10 years and that will throw all the tourist numbers, exchange rates and cost of living predictions out the window. 

Some will loose, some will win! Asia will grow, and Thai tourism will grow, no doubt about it. However tourism how we know today might change.

[JLCrab]

My prediction for living in Thailand 10 years from now is that Thai girls who are 15 years old today will then be a comely 25.

[i claudius]

I will be dead.

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[bwpage3]

5 hours ago, Thaidream said:

1.  Land values will continue to rise nationwide and reach levels in Central City Bangkok that only the wealthy can afford thus forcing certain businesses to relocate further away as well as the middle class and the lower classes to continue the move away from the city.  (Much the same has happened in New York; London and Tokyo)

 

In 10 years neither Nana Plaza or Cowboy will exist in their current sites- the land is much too valuable to have these type of business in a wealthy central city.  They also will relocate away from the city in diminished numbers.  There will be less because they won't be able to find 'staff' and Western customers will have moved onto other countries.

 

Traffic will be restricted in the Central City by increased daily pricing like Singapore.

 

Thailand will continue to be an exporting nation and take business away from China as Chinese prices will rise too high and they will lose part of their export market. In addition- the Pacific Rim will see unparalleled growth fueled by the US who has rejoined the Trans Pacific Partnership. The Thai economy

will rise to around 20th in the World.

 

2.  Since Thailand will become more expensive and Exchange rates drop a little more- the requirements for long stay will go up to 1 Million Baht per year or a pension income of $85,000 per month. Anyone still here then will have their income requirements 'grandfathered' at their current rate.

 

There won't be a preponderance of Westerners retired in Thailand but mostly other Asians or Indians. Westerners can't afford Thailand like before but I don't predict Chinese dominance. The Chinese economy will have started to fail and stagnate and the Communist Party will have problems keeping its citizens docile. Most who came to Thailand in the past won't return because of  rising prices and others won't want to risk spending money in a climate of recession.

 

3.   What happens in Europe and America and Australia will have a direct bearing on what happens in Thailand.  Trump and Merkel will be gone  and Brexit a  reality.  The UK will have recovered economically and the Pound  about where it is now.  The rest of Europe will be in recession due to its reliance on Russia for energy needs and  as well as the immigrant population causing continual unrest; Greece .Spain and Portugal will have exited the EU. The Euro will have lost 20% of it's value causing Europeans to stop visiting Thailand as they can't afford it.

 

The US will still have the biggest economy in the World and with Trump gone will again rely on South American and Central American Immigration to provide needed workers and fuel it's economic strength wit huge investments in Thailand. In addition- the Us will finally reduce its defence budget and stop getting involved in foreign wars saving trillions of dollars which it can invest abroad.

 

Australia will be the World's fastest growing economy fuelled by new found natural resources and vast settlements in its Western and Norther Territories.  Australia will invest heavily in Thailand and import many Thai products helping the Thai economy to grow. Due to huge growth-  many people will relocate from Mainland Europe to Australia in search of jobs and wealth. At some point if successful- Thailand will be back on their tourist map.

 

4.  The one key area in all of this is what will happen politically in Thailand and that is a very difficult question to answer.  I expect the current regime to stay in power through the voting mechanism they have established . How this will play out over the next 10 years will definitely  affect every prediction made  and this an area in which only the Thai people will be able to decide. 

 

Thank you for your insights. Very interesting!

[luk AJ]

I hope by then I can sell my business and buy an Island, yacht, incredible house and free housing for some beautiful female ladies!
If not I will be broke and living in Isaan harvesting durian..


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[khunPer]

17 hours ago, bwpage3 said:

Just look back 10 years and see how much things have changed since then.

2008: Just ended a military government with a democratic election for a new parlament; huge chaos in beginning of about six years with political instability, which at the end almost looked like a civil war could begin any moment. The coup d'etat two years before had ended a Shinawatra government era. In the World outside Thailand began a financial crisis that was compared to 1929, many people lost some money, and the real estate market suffered, with effect spreading to Thailand for especially those foreigners that just had build or bought a house, which might not be worth it's full value in resale. About 30 baht for $1, and almost 50 baht for 1€, and little more than 60 baht for 1£.

 

2018: About to end a military dictatorship that since 2014 brought stability to the nation; a change in the constitution gives the military power to control that stability in the future. The coup d'etat four years before had ended a Shinawatra government era. In the World outside Thailand the financial markets began to be unstable due to international politics, an instability that could effect Thailand's economy. About 31 baht for $1, whilst only close to 40 baht for 1€, and only little more than 40 baht for 1£, i.e. € down 20% and £ down one third.

 

Conclusion: Same-same, but different – depending from where one originates...

 

18 hours ago, bwpage3 said:

What are your predictions for the next 10 years living in Thailand as an expat?

 

For those that are considering moving to Thailand or retiring to Thailand in the next 10 years, what are your major concerns?

 

What are some things that could change positively that would make you consider retiring in Thailand? What are some of the negatives?

Prediction are difficult, especially about the future...

 

A lot of changes may come, and that's for the whole World, so there could be changes both staying at home, or living as retired expat in LoS; and the changes might be of different weight, depending of where one originates from; just think about the currency exchange rates.

 

If I should make a bet, then the political situation inside Thailand seem more stable for the next decade, than it did in 2008, whilst the outside world is more complex. So the usual advice about "not burning bridges", and "not place all you have on one horse" are still very valid; but in a way the Thai saying "don't think too much" is also valid, as too much concern and worrying can spoil an otherwise happy decade.

 

As when looking at investment, historical performance is not guarantee for future performance, but if I look back – and that would the be moving the 10-year period a bit to 2006, when I officially checked out from my otherwise safe Scandinavian home country, and headed to my version of "paradise" – that was then before the international financial crisis, which no normal folks with a positive view of life expected, and that crisis actually did well for me. I sold my homeland property at peak price – it's not worth more, rather little less in 2018 –, after a period with € to baht shifting between less than 40 baht and little more than 50 baht, I transferred the money I was going to use for a house in Thailand at a very peak with more than 50 baht to the Euro. When I build my house in 2009-2010 construction work was quoted fair, as many had put projects on hold, and the building construction companies therefore were short of new jobs. So in all I got a house that the locals later valued at double price of the actual cost I paid; i.e. I got quite a lot more, than I originally both dreamed about, and had planned as realistic possible for the money I could afford.

 

Looking at Europe, and especially Scandinavia, where I originates from, I have today a little negative futuristic view, whilst I see many positive visions for East Asia. It might be very different if one originates from US or "down under", as we in Europe has a rising problem with costly migrants that furthermore create cultural deviations. EU, the European Union, as market is not that big compared to Asia, so what happens in Europe is not that important, when living in Southeast Asia; however any retirement pension paid in homeland currency might be extremely dependent of currency exchange rates, just think of the British expats that have some 30% less at the moment, than 10-years ago.

 

And in spite of all the negative posts and warnings, the Thai stock market is not performing that bad – if one has savings to live of – and the dividend is paid in the currency it's going to be spend. Furthermore it seems to me, that many SET-stocks are living their own national life, and not necessarily follow international ups-and-downs. And if you have children in school age, and can afford a bilingual og international school, the schools here seem to be Okay – I actually find them better than public schools in my home country, the trend seem to be improvements here, and the opposite at "home" – the difference being that here you have to pay for the school, and relative to one's income it can be quite a bit.

 

Conclusion: Don't worry too much, but use your head, and play little sensible safe...

[poanoi]

16 hours ago, mstevens said:

In 10 years time from now, the year 2028, my predictions for expats in Thailand are as follows:

 

- The cost of living in Thailand (particularly in Bangkok) will be significantly higher due to inflation running at a higher rate than the West and the baht increasing in value against all major currencies. 

 

contradiction: on the one hand you state inflation is higher then west,

on the other hand you state baht increases over western currencies

[jenny2017]

What are your predictions for the next 10 years living in Thailand as an expat?

 

   I won't be alive and if, I won't be living here. Too many understandable reasons. 

 

    Foreigners holiday in much better countries, Burma offers nice beaches and people don't run around faceless. 

In 10years, even the most stupid foreigners will have realized that chasing a dream can be done in other countries with a much better outcome. 

Edited April 13, 2018 by jenny2017

[Puwa]

- The all-seeing national security state, including Immigration, will be the most modern thing in the country, while the country at large will see varying levels of change  

 

- Bangkok will continue to evolve as it has steadily for decades, despite everything. More trains, more cars, electric motorbikes with little charging/parking stations run by guys who drive motosai taxis today. 

 

-The elite educational institutions won't change much. But the private sector will drive change for better education at lower levels replying to middle-class demand. Online instruction for the masses to complement but not yet replace the unsavable schools. 

 

- Rapidly digitized life for most citizens. Identity, payments, social, entertainment, education, etc. Some of these changes will be welcome because they replace ineffective institutions.

 

- 50-50 that Thailand either sees major environmental crisis or makes some good moves. Coal or no coal? Agricultural burning banned or not?  The country is quite vulnerable because of its dependence on shared oceans and rivers and shared airspace which is also polluted by neighbors. 

 

- Visa procedures will make it easier for legit visa-holders, and more difficult for anyone without the right permissions. 

 

 

[ericthai]

17 hours ago, lannarebirth said:

 I see major tax increases coming, across the globe, 

Really?? The US just cut their tax rate. we will have

to wait to see what happens, at this time it's looking positive.

I dont see Singapore every doing a tax increase.  

[Craig krup]

There will be a visa for the digital gonad community. Why wouldn't you? They're young, they chuck money into the local economy - de facto export earnings - and they're low maintenance compared to the tourists. Chiang Mai will be like an outdoor episode of Friends, with inexpensive coffee. 

[meechai]

18 hours ago, Sheryl said:

Many changes cannot be predicted, many things could go a variety of ways

 

But barring some drastic upheaval/disruption I expect:

 

- continued Chinese domination of the country

- continued rise in cost of living overall

-continued rise in cost of medical care and insurance premiums

 

The last is also my greatest concern as I expect it is for most older people - don't want to end up in a situation where I'm on fixed income, no longer able to work, and cannot really afford to live here

I agree & think many expats already feel #3 then go without insurance & we see more & more of that situation ending badly.

 

[JAS21]

Think I will be dust ... so .........

[torrzent]

9 hours ago, Craig krup said:

There will be a visa for the digital gonad community. Why wouldn't you? They're young, they chuck money into the local economy - de facto export earnings - and they're low maintenance compared to the tourists. Chiang Mai will be like an outdoor episode of Friends, with inexpensive coffee. 

Based on the demographic you sight, more likely to be like an outdoor episode of the "Big Bang Theory"

[Media1]

On 13/04/2018 at 12:36 AM, swissie said:

That's a "no brainer".

3 week tourists and "Elite-Card" holders will still be welcome. All others will have overstayed their welcome in Thailand as they will not contribute enough to the "Future Developpement" of Thailand as a whole.
The writing is on the wall.
Cheers.

lol future what. They are primitive and have only spitting dirty Chinese.. l.dislike the place in 2 years l don't be here. Hello Vietnam 

[geriatrickid]

On 4/13/2018 at 12:07 AM, stropper said:

my god , your starting whinging and full of negitivity all ready, must be a young pom!

Gee, Braniac, if you  had bothered to read the government's own water assessments you would know the country is going to suffer water shortage. It is a worldwide  crisis and will most likely be the cause of the next pakistan-India war, and will certainly feature in African conflict.

As for the issue with antibiotics, where have you been for the past 5 years? The crisis is starting.

[ningnong]

21 hours ago, JLCrab said:

My prediction for living in Thailand 10 years from now is that Thai girls who are 15 years old today will then be a comely 25.

If your definition of comely is plump.

 

One of the top three  things I like about Thailand are the lovely petite women. Unfortunately they will be rare 10 years from now.

[JAFO]

On 4/13/2018 at 2:24 AM, 55Jay said:

10 years from now, OP will be back living in some Issan hell hole but thankfully,  will be unable to start as many threads on ThaiVisa due to spotty internet and frequent power cuts. 

Now that's funny.  

[JLCrab]

3 hours ago, ningnong said:

<snip> One of the top three  things I like about Thailand are the lovely petite women. Unfortunately they will be rare 10 years from now.

So they may be rare -- how many do you need?

[OJAS]

On 4/13/2018 at 11:13 AM, possum1931 said:

but talking about retirees here, Thailand will never do anything to affect them in a positive way. 

As will never the UK in the case of us Brits. In 10 years time our State Pensions will continue to be frozen, and we shall still be required to make 2 arduous trips from whatever far-flung corner of LOS we live in to the top floor of an office building with an exceedingly silly name in Bangkok at passport renewal time.

Edited April 14, 2018 by OJAS

[OJAS]

On 4/13/2018 at 7:40 AM, simoh1490 said:

I might add, to expand on LB's point: I would not be surprised to see expat taxation in Thailand at some point, income, pensions, property, who knows

Since our home countries would almost certainly not willingly forego their existing taxation on our incomes, a whole raft of double taxation treaties would probably first need to be torn up before we could be liable to tax on the same income in both LOS and our home countries - a possibility which, I think, we rule out happening over the next 10 years at our peril, though.

 

And, to rub salt into the wound as far as we Brits are concerned, what's the betting that by 2028 HMRC will, at the very least, have revived and implemented a proposal to deny expats entitlement to the annual tax-free allowance?

Edited April 15, 2018 by OJAS

[simoh1490]

3 minutes ago, OJAS said:

Since our home countries would almost certainly not willingly forego their existing taxation on our incomes, a whole raft of double taxation treaties would probably first need to be torn up before we could be liable to tax on the same income in both LOS and our home countries - a possibility which, I think, we rule out happening over the next 10 years at our peril, though.

 

And, to rub salt into the wound as far as we Brits are concerned, what's the betting that by 2028 HMRC will, at the very least, have revived and implemented a proposal to deny expats entitlement to the annual tax-free allowance?

 

Within the next three years I say.

[jak2002003]

Rampant obesity for the majority of the population, with associated health problems.

 

Massive environmental damage... the island in the South ruined, coral reefs destroyed, Forests in the North mostly degraded or gone, turned over for agriculture.  Water shortages, and polluted rivers.  Loss of most wildlife.  

 

Food prices higher... rice prices high due to shortages. 

 

Gridlock on the roads almost 24 / 7 with higher death tolls.

 

The rich richer, the poor poorer.  

 

Immigration visa processes changed, but just as inefficient.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Mario666]

On 4/12/2018 at 8:42 PM, mstevens said:

In 10 years time from now, the year 2028, my predictions for expats in Thailand are as follows:

 

- The cost of living in Thailand (particularly in Bangkok) will be significantly higher due to inflation running at a higher rate than the West and the baht increasing in value against all major currencies.  Thailand will not be the bargain it once was.  Central Bangkok rents and the general cost of living will push many expats out in to the suburbs and expats living in central Bangkok will be those with money / professional expat positions / those who purchased property back when prices were much more reasonable.

- The retirement visa age and financial requirements will be revised with the age pushed up to 55 or 60 and the financial requirements doubled, reflecting the increasing cost of living and the simple fact that Thailand's booming economy is not reliant on income from retirees.

- Thailand will be in the top handful of countries in the world for visitor numbers with in excess of 60 million visitors per year, more than half of whom are Chinese.

- The influence of China on Thailand will become greater and more visible with more investment from China, Chinese tourists dominating visitor numbers and the Chinese language becoming more important and being taught more widely.

- Infrastructure in Thailand will be creaking with the airports, mass transit systems and the roads struggling to keep up with demand amid talks of massive infrastructure investment needed.

- There will be heated debate about immigration policy as the issue of demographics and the projections that the country's population could polarising the country.

 

Just a few things off the top of my head.

 

 

Well thanks for the "Brightside"...