Dawn of the new Democrats?

[Odysseus123]

12 minutes ago, Anak Nakal said:

If not care, why post?

Good question..

 

I think 'Baboon' is just feeling a trifle frustrated with the constant shifting of the goalposts. very few outsiders experience life as colourful drama' as the Thai do..

[robblok]

All those people here predicting great PTP victory, I am not so sure read in the news their complete southern wing has set up their own new party. Prayut also lured many of their allies away. The PTP won't be able to do much unless they ally with other parties and that would mean that Thaksin has to give up some control. I don't see that happening. 

 

The Democrats will probably lose out to some pro army parties, and they were never as big as the PTP.

The big question is how much votes will the new parties steal from the old parties. This could be substantial and that would be a good wake up call for them.

 

In the short run its bad that Thailand has new parties as it plays in the armies hands, but on the long run its great that they depart from this old fashioned semi two party system and people really have a choice. It will mean coalitions and parties having to compromise. Will be hard for them to learn as those that get in power (no matter who) are used to do as they please with all the arrogance that comes with it.

[candide]

44 minutes ago, robblok said:

All those people here predicting great PTP victory, I am not so sure read in the news their complete southern wing has set up their own new party. Prayut also lured many of their allies away. The PTP won't be able to do much unless they ally with other parties and that would mean that Thaksin has to give up some control. I don't see that happening. 

 

The Democrats will probably lose out to some pro army parties, and they were never as big as the PTP.

The big question is how much votes will the new parties steal from the old parties. This could be substantial and that would be a good wake up call for them.

 

In the short run its bad that Thailand has new parties as it plays in the armies hands, but on the long run its great that they depart from this old fashioned semi two party system and people really have a choice. It will mean coalitions and parties having to compromise. Will be hard for them to learn as those that get in power (no matter who) are used to do as they please with all the arrogance that comes with it.

Even if the PT P scores better than in previous elections, they will probably get less seats because of the MMA system. And anyway, does it matter, as they will never be able to get 375 MP votes for an elected PM? It may only be possible if the Dems join them,which I think is very unlikely. I am very doubtful about the Dems recently draping themselves in the flag of democracry....

Thailand is on the way towards having an outsider P.M.  or a political deadlock.

About the general merits of coalitions, you may be too influenced by the characteristics of northern Europe politics. I don't think it will be like in your country or Germany, but rather like "combinazione" in latin countries.

Have a look at how it worked in Italy or in Brazil. Thailand will likely experience a worsened version of what happened in these countries.

Edited April 29, 2018 by candide

[baboon]

1 hour ago, Odysseus123 said:

Good question..

 

I think 'Baboon' is just feeling a trifle frustrated with the constant shifting of the goalposts. very few outsiders experience life as colourful drama' as the Thai do..

That, plus I was pi$$ed as a fiddler's bitch when I wrote it. However keep that one quiet...

[robblok]

39 minutes ago, candide said:

Even if the PT P scores better than in previous elections, they will probably get less seats because of the MMA system. And anyway, does it matter, as they will never be able to get 375 MP votes for an elected PM? It may only be possible if the Dems join them,which I think is very unlikely. I am very doubtful about the Dems recently draping themselves in the flag of democracry....

Thailand is on the way towards having an outsider P.M.  or a political deadlock.

About the general merits of coalitions, you may be too influenced by the characteristics of northern Europe politics. I don't think it will be like in your country or Germany, but rather like "combinazione" in latin countries.

Have a look at how it worked in Italy or in Brazil. Thailand will likely experience a worsened version of what happened in these countries.

I disagree, i like a multi party system it gives people more chance and parties a way to start small and grown. If you say Thailand can't be like the west.. what is the point of a democracy then if it won't work.  Two party systems ar far worse then multi party systems. (for the freedom of voters)

 

I don't like the idea of a outsider PM, but I agree it will probably happen but it also means that Prayut will have to adapt a lot. I doubt it will be as easy for him as it is now. He won't have nearly as much power, he will be frustrated for sure. 

[candide]

2 minutes ago, robblok said:

If you say Thailand can't be like the west.. what is the point of a democracy then if it won't work

Rob, please read well my post. I said it will not work like in northern Europe countries, but like in latin countries such as Italy. It also worked in the same (bad) way in France before De Gaulle introduced a majority system. And Brazil is probably an even better example as it exhibits some characteristics that are more similar to those in Thailand.

[robblok]

6 minutes ago, candide said:

Rob, please read well my post. I said it will not work like in northern Europe countries, but like in latin countries such as Italy. It also worked in the same (bad) way in France before De Gaulle introduced a majority system. And Brazil is probably an even better example as it exhibits some characteristics that are more similar to those in Thailand.

You automatically assumed it would not work here.. did not think of progress of it into a better system. The systems in Europe are far superior to those in the US with their crazy voting system. 

If you assume things won't ever progress to a better state then why do you feel we need to keep a Democracy here as I could state too that it will never progress.

 

I think your just bias about the 2 party system. 

[candide]

6 minutes ago, robblok said:

You automatically assumed it would not work here.. did not think of progress of it into a better system. The systems in Europe are far superior to those in the US with their crazy voting system. 

If you assume things won't ever progress to a better state then why do you feel we need to keep a Democracy here as I could state too that it will never progress.

 

I think your just bias about the 2 party system. 

If you don't want to read what I exactly wrote and absolutely want to understand something else, it's your problem. What I wrote is that coalition systems work well in NORTHERN Europe but not in latin countries such as Italy, because of different contexts and cultures. And I think that Thailand shares more characteristics with latin countries than with northern European countries.

Now if you want to explain us that Thailand shares common cultural characteristics with The Netherlands, such as the ethics of Protestantism or a culture of consensus, good luck to you!

[robblok]

Just now, candide said:

If you don't want to read what I exactly wrote and absolutely want to understand something else, it's your problem. What I wrote is that coalition systems work well in NORTHERN Europe but not in latin countries such as Italy, because of different contexts and cultures. And I think that Thailand shares more characteristics with latin countries than with northern European countries.

Now if you want to explain us that Thailand shares common cultural characteristics with The Netherlands, such as the ethics of Protestantism or a culture of consensus, good luck to you!

What your saying is akin to saying democracy wont work in asia because of a different culture.. however you won't go that far because you believe in democracy. But you do use the culture to dump on a great political system. I just don't agree with you.

 

We either accept a democracy can mature here and if we do a multiparty system can mature too.. or both are failed to doom here. 

 

Because democracy is far from perfect here because of culture.. but still you believe in it.. I don't get how you can negate culture on on but not on the other that is unless you are bias about 2 party systems.

[billd766]

3 hours ago, Anak Nakal said:

If not care, why post?

 

Can you change anything at all?

 

Are you even Thai.

 

If not why are you posting?

[billd766]

59 minutes ago, robblok said:

I disagree, i like a multi party system it gives people more chance and parties a way to start small and grown. If you say Thailand can't be like the west.. what is the point of a democracy then if it won't work.  Two party systems ar far worse then multi party systems. (for the freedom of voters)

 

I don't like the idea of a outsider PM, but I agree it will probably happen but it also means that Prayut will have to adapt a lot. I doubt it will be as easy for him as it is now. He won't have nearly as much power, he will be frustrated for sure. 

 

The problem is not a multi party system, it is that there are too many parties and most of them will take away votes from the Democrats and the PTP and most of them won't get any seats anyway, so the votes they get will be wasted.

 

Sneaky Pete can come in and gobble up those that do get an MP or 2 and succeed anyway.

[candide]

24 minutes ago, robblok said:

What your saying is akin to saying democracy wont work in asia because of a different culture.. however you won't go that far because you believe in democracy. But you do use the culture to dump on a great political system. I just don't agree with you.

 

We either accept a democracy can mature here and if we do a multiparty system can mature too.. or both are failed to doom here. 

 

Because democracy is far from perfect here because of culture.. but still you believe in it.. I don't get how you can negate culture on on but not on the other that is unless you are bias about 2 party systems.

I said exactly what I said, not your imaginary understanding of it.

[AGareth2]

coalitions are a disaster

MPs will floor cross for money

corruption will be rife

much prefer first past the post that leads to strong govt

Thais like strong govt which may be why they have had so many coups

Edited April 29, 2018 by AGareth2

[candide]

9 minutes ago, AGareth2 said:

Thais like strong govt which may be why they have has so many coups

You forget a slight detail:The Thai people never had any say on this matter. 

[whatsupdoc]

8 minutes ago, AGareth2 said:

coalitions are a disaster

MPs will floor cross for money

corruption will be rife

much prefer first past the post that leads to strong govt

Thais like strong govt which may be why they have has so many coups

I would think coalitions keep corruption down. Absolute power by one party eliminates checks and balances and would more likely lead to uncontrolled corruption.

[pornprong]

47 minutes ago, whatsupdoc said:

I would think coalitions keep corruption down. Absolute power by one party eliminates checks and balances and would more likely lead to uncontrolled corruption.

Exact opposite.

Weak coalition governments are fertile beds for corruption just as much as absolute rule.

 

 

[Eric Loh]

17 hours ago, billd766 said:

I now have a feeling that 375 is the number to select an "outsider PM". Please correct me if I am wrong.    

Yes and no #billf766. 

 

Below extract from Reuter May explain better. The upper house and the 375 threshold votes will only kick in IF the lower house reach an impasse on selecting an elected PM. 

OUTSIDE PRIME MINISTER’ 

Although he cannot technically stand for election because he would have needed to resign by July, a new constitution drawn up at the junta’s behest does offer him a route. 

 

He could be chosen as an “outside prime minister” - foreseen under the constitution if the winning party fails to get enough votes for its candidate in the 500-member lower house of parliament. 

In such a case, the upper house would also have a say - its 250 members will be picked by the military. Prayuth would still need support from at least half the lower house, however.

[billd766]

36 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Yes and no #billf766. 

 

Below extract from Reuter May explain better. The upper house and the 375 threshold votes will only kick in IF the lower house reach an impasse on selecting an elected PM. 

OUTSIDE PRIME MINISTER’ 

Although he cannot technically stand for election because he would have needed to resign by July, a new constitution drawn up at the junta’s behest does offer him a route. 

 

He could be chosen as an “outside prime minister” - foreseen under the constitution if the winning party fails to get enough votes for its candidate in the 500-member lower house of parliament. 

In such a case, the upper house would also have a say - its 250 members will be picked by the military. Prayuth would still need support from at least half the lower house, however.

 

Thanks for that Eric.

 

I must have been asleep for that lesson.

[bannork]

He could simply be chosen as one of the three candidates each party must propose as a future PM.I believe those candidates don't have to be a MP.

[Eric Loh]

16 minutes ago, bannork said:

He could simply be chosen as one of the three candidates each party must propose as a future PM.I believe those candidates don't have to be a MP.

Risky route and likely to fail. Although not necessary to be MP but the party must win 25 seats to be eligible to nominate him. Tough ask for a new party to get 25 seats. I don’t think any of the existing mid size party will nominate him for fear of backlash and labeled as junta lackey.