When will Thai Baht get back to reality

[Advocate]

3 hours ago, Brunolem said:

The UK is not part of the EU, but of the Middle East...

UK is heading for fourth world in a barbed wire canoe.

[Jip99]

5 minutes ago, Advocate said:

UK is heading for fourth world in a barbed wire canoe.

 

Stunning economic contribution.

 

 

Dick-head!

[Advocate]

4 hours ago, Brunolem said:

Indeed!

 

What is left of the British economy is a cesspool of white collar criminals in the City, and a bunch of criminal oligarchs such as Abramovich bringing their stollen wealth with them.

 

And of course, there is Whisky...and porridge...

The upper class in the UK now comprises Russian emigres and Middle Eastern emigres.

 

Prince Edward was purchased by a Kazakhstan Oligarch.

 

The British are now just servants of the wealthy refugees and escapees who own the British whisky and porridge supply and all the housing.

 

The British parliament is a mockery of democracy fit only for the entertainment industry. British politicians will sell their souls to any bidder for five pounds.

Edited May 10, 2018 by Advocate

[Skeptic7]

However much we deny it...find it unacceptable and mind boggling...simply can't believe/understand it, the ฿aht has been a strong and quite stable currency for a long time. Through coups, violent and non-violent protests, juntas, floods, droughts, airport and major thoroughfare shutdowns...and all sorts of corruption and political unrest. It's quite impressive, if distasteful.

 

Over the past month, however, the USD has shown some strength against the baht...as well as other currencies. Nice ฿1 gain. Personally, hoping this trend continues, but we've seen this before...so confidence is guarded at best. "Normal" for quite a while back in the late 90s thru mid-2000s was around 40:1 on the USD. "Normal" has been MUCH lower since 2008 and been that way for a decade. 

 

[simoh1490]

Most posters don't understand why so it becomes easier to say that it must be as a result of manipulation and then run off at a tangent to include the political elite, George Soros, the junta, elections and probably Auntie Harriet's underwear! 

[Cricky]

On 09/05/2018 at 9:04 AM, thaibeachlovers said:

Actually, LOS is no more a "developing" country than Singapore is. It is a developed country where the money that should have been used for infrastructure has been "appropriated" for other purposes. 

Developing countries don't build transport hubs like the new one at Bang Sue.

Mate, you got to get your facts right. Singapore is not a developing country, its classification is DEVELOPED. 

[Srikcir]

6 minutes ago, rickjza said:

Mate, you got to get your facts right. Singapore is not a developing country, its classification is DEVELOPED. 

"LOS is no more a "developing" country than Singapore is" might be viewed as sarcasm. From the viewpoint that Singapore is recognized as a developing nation, the point made is the opposite of the statement - both countries are developed countries.

[Ks45672]

1 minute ago, Srikcir said:

"LOS is no more a "developing" country than Singapore is" might be viewed as sarcasm. From the viewpoint that Singapore is recognized as a developing nation, the point made is the opposite of the statement - both countries are developed countries.

As if Thailand were equally developed as Singapore lol

Wt.f r u smoking? 

[Srikcir]

2 minutes ago, Ks45672 said:

As if Thailand were equally developed as Singapore lol

Wt.f r u smoking? 

I am trying to reconcile what was being said to you and have no personal comment in the conversation between you and thaibeachlovers. Do you believe that Thailand is an undeveloped country vs Singapore?

What I don't understand is your instant gratification at a curse. Usually that's a defensive tack in the lack of civilized conversation to fill an intellectual void.

[Ks45672]

1 minute ago, Srikcir said:

I am trying to reconcile what was being said to you and have no personal comment in the conversation between you and thaibeachlovers. Do you believe that Thailand is an undeveloped country vs Singapore?

What I don't understand is your instant gratification at a curse. Usually that's a defensive tack in the lack of civilized conversation to fill an intellectual void.

Yes, Thailand is equal to Singapore..... 

In maybe 50 years.... If lucky

[Brunolem]

1 hour ago, Srikcir said:

 

What I don't understand is your instant gratification at a curse. Usually that's a defensive tack in the lack of civilized conversation to fill an intellectual void.

It is true that posters resorting to aggressive posturing generally lack the abi!ities required for civilized debate (remaining composed and polite) or lack the necessary arguments to defend their opinion.

Plenty of those in TV Forum...

 

Having said that, there is no comparison to be made between Thailand and Singapore.

To me, Singapore is probably the most developed country in the world, a feat facilitated by its small size, its geographic position and its founder.

 

Meanwhile Thailand remains mired in corruption as a way of life, not able to set up a reliable legal system, with a largely uneducated population.

And this not about to change anytime soon...

[simoh1490]

Trying to claim the intellectual high ground through behavior and style alone doesn't work well, especially when all the supposed facts are completely wrong! It's fine in theoretical debates and nice friendly chats about philosophy, but threads about economics and currency exchange rates require something just a little more concrete - if you don't get those things right, no amount of civilised mature debating style will win the argument.

[morrobay]

1 hour ago, Brunolem said:

 

 

 

 

Meanwhile Thailand remains mired in corruption as a way of life, not able to set up a reliable legal system, with a largely uneducated population.

And this not about to change anytime soon...

And add incompetence to above. And the baht is only supported by massive FDI by manufactures setting up shop here for export combined with high foreign tourism. Without these would be a basket economy made up of rice and girls. 50 baht/$

[simoh1490]

5 minutes ago, morrobay said:

And add incompetence to above. And the baht is only supported by massive FDI by manufactures setting up shop here for export combined with high foreign tourism. Without these would be a basket economy made up of rice and girls. 50 baht/$

I don't understand where you guys get these ideas from, I'm sorry to interrupt your Thai bashing fest. but what you wrote is totally incorrect, FDI is very low currently:https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/foreign-direct-investment - scroll down the page to the FDI detail.

[morrobay]

On 5/9/2018 at 12:30 PM, simoh1490 said:

If you want the Baht to weaken so that you've got more money to spend you'll need to pray for a crash in Thai exports and in inbound tourism, that will create a trade deficit and foreign direct investment (FDI) will cease - the result will be mass bankruptcies and business failures with millions thrown back into poverty........but you'll have your improved exchange rates. Be careful what you wish for.

Maybe you forgot the above regarding FDI/exports and tourism that like I said supports baht. 

[Brunolem]

38 minutes ago, morrobay said:

And add incompetence to above. And the baht is only supported by massive FDI by manufactures setting up shop here for export combined with high foreign tourism. Without these would be a basket economy made up of rice and girls. 50 baht/$

I am part of those who don't see strength in the baht as much as weakness in Western currencies, engaged in a voluntary depreciation race to the bottom.

The fact that these countries also offer bottom interest rates doesn't help either.

The Thai baht has risen not on its own merits, or through (not needed) manipulation, but simply because many other floating currencies are...sinking!

 

Further on, and no matter the defficiencies of Thailand, its economy still has better prospects than those from the crumbling Western countries.

Retirement pensions alone, an issue that doesn't concern Thailand, weigh enough to sink Western economies, if something else doesn't do it before.

[simoh1490]

20 minutes ago, morrobay said:

Maybe you forgot the above regarding FDI/exports and tourism that like I said supports baht. 

There's no question that exports and tourism are key reasons why the Baht remains strong. I read your post however to suggest that FDI was driving the export market which it isn't, FDI can be significant in the bond market but nothing export related.

TO ADD: Thai FDI is significant in the Thai bond market and sometimes in the SET.

Edited May 11, 2018 by simoh1490

[simoh1490]

21 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

I am part of those who don't see strength in the baht as much as weakness in Western currencies, engaged in a voluntary depreciation race to the bottom.

The fact that these countries also offer bottom interest rates doesn't help either.

The Thai baht has risen not on its own merits, or through (not needed) manipulation, but simply because many other floating currencies are...sinking!

 

Further on, and no matter the defficiencies of Thailand, its economy still has better prospects than those from the crumbling Western countries.

Retirement pensions alone, an issue that doesn't concern Thailand, weigh enough to sink Western economies, if something else doesn't do it before.

May I suggest you spend some time with Oanda or XE and look at the THB/XXX exchange rates over the past three or five years, if you do so you will arrive at a different conclusion. It hasn't mattered historically whether USD has been at 105% of the Dollar Index or at 89% which is where it has been very recently, there has been only minimal impact on the value of THB. Also, just for clarity: it is interest rates that in part drive the demand for a currency. 

[morrobay]

And I blame that Hack Greenspan for promoting reckless financial deregulation, drastically lowering interest rates that led to financial crisis. Followed by all that QE that devalued the dollar. Quote from Stalin: The way to destroy a country is to destroy it's currency. Sounds like treason to me. 

[Brunolem]

3 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

May I suggest you spend some time with Oanda or XE and look at the THB/XXX exchange rates over the past three or five years, if you do so you will arrive at a different conclusion. It hasn't mattered historically whether USD has been at 105% of the Dollar Index or at 89% which is where it has been very recently, there has been only minimal impact on the value of THB. Also, just for clarity: it is interest rates that in part drive the demand for a currency

 

While interest rates used to drive demand for currencies, this is not so much the case anymore, since there is so much manipulation from the central banks on interest rates that the latter have become meaningless.

 

For example, despite offering negative interest rates, there is still a strong demand for the Swiss Franc.

 

As far as the Thai baht is concerned, it is difficult to come to definitive conclusions since this is a currency with a very low circulation outside Thailand.

 

Such low volume currencies can be influenced by rather small moves that wouldn't even be noticed by currencies like the dollar or the euro.

 

 

[simoh1490]

2 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

While interest rates used to drive demand for currencies, this is not so much the case anymore, since there is so much manipulation from the central banks on interest rates that the latter have become meaningless.

 

For example, despite offering negative interest rates, there is still a strong demand for the Swiss Franc.

 

As far as the Thai baht is concerned, it is difficult to come to definitive conclusions since this is a currency with a very low circulation outside Thailand.

 

Such low volume currencies can be influenced by rather small moves that wouldn't even be noticed by currencies like the dollar or the euro.

 

 

THB is a very very heavily traded currency, the volume is far away from being small, this link suggests it is 24th worldwide but I've seen other which report it is in the top 15.

 

Money chases yield, when Thailand was offering 1.75% and the US base rate was 0.25%, Thailand saw large capital inflows into the bond market, the sole reason was the interest rate differential.

 

The Swiss Franc is one of a handful of reserve currencies and there's always demand for them, regardless of what the interest rates might be - the swissie is unique in that its a reserve currency and its value is consistently high yet it represents only a very small fraction, 0.3% of reserve assets whilst USD represents over 60%. The attraction of the swissie is that it holds its value which is already very high, investors love it.

 

 

[Brunolem]

1 hour ago, simoh1490 said:

THB is a very very heavily traded currency, the volume is far away from being small, this link suggests it is 24th worldwide but I've seen other which report it is in the top 15.

Yes, the baht appears to be 24th, but...representing only 0.2% of the transaction volume, while the big four (USD, euro, yen and pound) represent more than 75% of the volume...

[ELVIS123456]

2 hours ago, Brunolem said:

Yes, the baht appears to be 24th, but...representing only 0.2% of the transaction volume, while the big four (USD, euro, yen and pound) represent more than 75% of the volume...

And I cannot (still) understand the reasons why the Baht has increased in value against all those currencies for about 3-4 years now.  Interest rates in Thailand and Australia are at about the same level.  GDP growth in both is about the same. Same for all the key economic factors.  Perhaps it is all about the ever growing millions of Chinese tourists? Perhaps Thailand's reporting of its economic performance have as much 'validity' as TAT's ever-glowing reports about tourism? Could they be reporting 'fake economics'? Or are they buying up a lot of their own currency and that will mean a sudden drop when they decided to cash out - I hope so.

 

 

[simoh1490]

4 hours ago, Brunolem said:

Yes, the baht appears to be 24th, but...representing only 0.2% of the transaction volume, while the big four (USD, euro, yen and pound) represent more than 75% of the volume...

Your point being? As you've probably already sussed, THB is not a reserve currency and even worse, it's not fully convertible.!

Edited May 11, 2018 by simoh1490

[simoh1490]

2 hours ago, ELVIS123456 said:

And I cannot (still) understand the reasons why the Baht has increased in value against all those currencies for about 3-4 years now.  Interest rates in Thailand and Australia are at about the same level.  GDP growth in both is about the same. Same for all the key economic factors.  Perhaps it is all about the ever growing millions of Chinese tourists? Perhaps Thailand's reporting of its economic performance have as much 'validity' as TAT's ever-glowing reports about tourism? Could they be reporting 'fake economics'? Or are they buying up a lot of their own currency and that will mean a sudden drop when they decided to cash out - I hope so.

 

 

I sense from what you've written that you may never understand this point!

[ELVIS123456]

16 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

I sense from what you've written that you may never understand this point!

There are two words that stand out as being opposed in what you wrote - sense and you.

 

My point is that the baht is being 'managed' to stay high. 

Others point out that it is the other currencies that are falling.

What was your point?  Something about reserve currencies?

The Swiss is a reserve ?? What is it - half a percent or saomething.

80-90% of reserve is the USD and EURO.

And the Baht is appreciating against both of them - please tell me why IYO - make a point.

 

[Brunolem]

33 minutes ago, ELVIS123456 said:

There are two words that stand out as being opposed in what you wrote - sense and you.

 

My point is that the baht is being 'managed' to stay high. 

Others point out that it is the other currencies that are falling.

What was your point?  Something about reserve currencies?

The Swiss is a reserve ?? What is it - half a percent or saomething.

80-90% of reserve is the USD and EURO.

And the Baht is appreciating against both of them - please tell me why IYO - make a point.

 

Even if everything is possible these days, it would be a first to see a currency manipulated higher in order to satisfy the appetite of a few billionaires for imported luxury goods!

 

More likely, other factors are at play.

 

As as already been stated, the baht has not been printed hands over fists during the last decade, contrary to the dollar, euro, yen or sterling.

 

At some point there is always a price to be paid for debauching a currency.

 

Let say that while Thailand remains neutral, others are hell bent on pushing their currencies down.

 

So, depending on one's perspective, the baht may appear to move higher.

 

There may also be some Chinese input.

 

China has big plans for the region and hot money is flowing in order to implement them.

 

Finally, there is only one reserve currency: the USD.

 

Some other currencies, like the Swiss Franc, are perceived as a safe haven.

 

Perception plays a big role with currencies...

[manarak]

1 hour ago, ELVIS123456 said:

There are two words that stand out as being opposed in what you wrote - sense and you.

 

My point is that the baht is being 'managed' to stay high. 

Others point out that it is the other currencies that are falling.

What was your point?  Something about reserve currencies?

The Swiss is a reserve ?? What is it - half a percent or saomething.

80-90% of reserve is the USD and EURO.

And the Baht is appreciating against both of them - please tell me why IYO - make a point.

 

Western countries desperately try to get inflation up, while in Thailand the government tries to keep prices down.

 

there are other factors, such as Thailand's economy getting better and exports picking up, the country's debt is under control.

 

you might want to have a look at these:

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/gdp-constant-prices

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/inflation-cpi

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/exports

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/current-account

 

the interest rate chart actually shows that Thailand has lowered its rate to try to keep its currency down, but it can't lower it further:

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/interest-rate

 

with the above indicators, it's no wonder that the Thai Baht is doing very well.

Edited May 12, 2018 by manarak

[simoh1490]

People are over thinking the issue, either that or they are not thinking at all, 

 

Once again:

 

A currency strengthens the more it is bought against USD, sell that same currency against USD and its value falls.

 

And USD has a value, see the Dollar Index to understand how the value of USD changes, it's recently been as low as 89% which implies a 10% fall in value against other currencies (but it's not that straightforward since those other currencies also move), often to compensate.

 

That's all there is to the picture!

 

So now you ask, why do people want to buy THB against USD.....exports, tourism and investment are three major reasons, I ask you, what is Thailand supposed to do, stop exporting, curtail tourism, prevent FDI simply to keep the value of THB low so that you can all get a better exchange rate....hmmm!

 

This whole business of manipulation, globalists, elites, vested interest, who is in government/power....they are ALL red herrings and not relevant in the least, drivel made up by keyboard warriors to impress, it's really quite simple.

 

[simoh1490]

2 hours ago, Brunolem said:

Even if everything is possible these days, it would be a first to see a currency manipulated higher in order to satisfy the appetite of a few billionaires for imported luxury goods!

 

More likely, other factors are at play.

 

As as already been stated, the baht has not been printed hands over fists during the last decade, contrary to the dollar, euro, yen or sterling.

 

At some point there is always a price to be paid for debauching a currency.

 

Let say that while Thailand remains neutral, others are hell bent on pushing their currencies down.

 

So, depending on one's perspective, the baht may appear to move higher.

 

There may also be some Chinese input.

 

China has big plans for the region and hot money is flowing in order to implement them.

 

Finally, there is only one reserve currency: the USD.

 

Some other currencies, like the Swiss Franc, are perceived as a safe haven.

 

Perception plays a big role with currencies...

More waffle! 

 

Examples:

 

The USD is NOT the only reserve currency, fact!

 

Hot money is flowing into the region because China has big plans for the region, soooo Thailand is a Chinese proxy, is that what you just said!!!

 

The Baht may appear to move higher....kinda like a David Blaine illusion!