BREAKING NEWS Thai boys trapped in cave to be given 4 months of food and taught how to dive

[Artisi]

4 minutes ago, Damrongsak said:

I would study the flight plans of folks like the Red Bull Kid and Yingluck.  They got out of deep doo-doo very quickly.

Well that's certainly well connected to what Eliguis was skipping around, isn't it? 

[grollies]

7 hours ago, lannarebirth said:

 

I think too many narrow passages, sharp turns and rises. Otherwise that might be a good idea and they could "shoot the pig" capsule through an airtight pipeline.

Heyyy, at last someone else on TVF who knows what a pipeline pig is.

[kannot]

18 minutes ago, Artisi said:

Behind the scene I believe there is / has been a fair bit done - - without being too specific..... 

If  the Thais ploughed as  much money into hospitals as they do into temples they wouldnt need any help with virtually anything.

[grollies]

11 hours ago, Jingthing said:

It's not the Ritz. It's still a survival situation. I'm sure they have thought to bring them whatever hygiene supplies are possible in that environment. 

They're gonna struggle with this though.

 

 

[jossthaifarang]

11 hours ago, josephbloggs said:

The four month food supply is a very sensible contingency plan.  Let's say unbelievably heavy and continuous rains come and the no new supplies can be brought in - it took them 10 days to reach there this time, it could be longer next time if conditions get worse.  The kids will have supplies, it makes sense.  Why does that make you lose your faith?

 

 

Agreed It's a good contingency, my point is "unbelievably heavy and continuous rains" are coming not if but when. You can see how little space they have in there, and they have reached the far end of the cave. When the rain really comes down and floods will inundate them. 

 

Again, I'm no specialist cave diver, and I'm surtain the situation in there is really difficult, but surly we have the technology to get them out now they have found them..

[Justfine]

4 minutes ago, jossthaifarang said:

Agreed It's a good contingency, my point is "unbelievably heavy and continuous rains" are coming not if but when. You can see how little space they have in there, and they have reached the far end of the cave. When the rain really comes down and floods will inundate them. 

 

Again, I'm no specialist cave diver, and I'm surtain the situation in there is really difficult, but surly we have the technology to get them out now they have found them..

They have set up a system to turn water away from the cave.

 

 

[jossthaifarang]

17 minutes ago, Justfine said:

They have set up a system to turn water away from the cave.

 

 

It's a cave there are underground waterways, that's how the cave got there in the first place. 

[Artisi]

44 minutes ago, kannot said:

If  the Thais ploughed as  much money into hospitals as they do into temples they wouldnt need any help with virtually anything.

No argument from me on that one. 

But bear in mind, hospitals are only for dying in, whereas temples are a milking machine to make sure you come back again. 

Edited July 4, 2018 by Artisi

[Justfine]

17 minutes ago, jossthaifarang said:

It's a cave there are underground waterways, that's how the cave got there in the first place. 

And they are trying to prevent additional flooding.

[Artisi]

58 minutes ago, grollies said:

Heyyy, at last someone else on TVF who knows what a pipeline pig is.

Outside of pipeline engineering, a pipeline pig could be best described as a politician. 

 

Although a pipeline/pig system has got some validity, of course depending entirely on its route. 

[Artisi]

25 minutes ago, jossthaifarang said:

It's a cave there are underground waterways, that's how the cave got there in the first place. 

With the majority of water ways being the cave itself. 

[Artisi]

47 minutes ago, Justfine said:

They have set up a system to turn water away from the cave.

 

 

Number one priority prior to attempting to drain the cave system. 

 

[Old York]

Drilling rigs can be helicoptered in. I have done this in very remote and inaccessible areas. The problem is drilling to a very precise location and maybe GPS locating would help if a signal can be obtained in the cave. As for rockfall drill to an adjacent dry area in the cave.

[lvr181]

13 hours ago, oilinki said:

I thought this a long time and I'm still not sure what is the right way to go forward in situations like this. 

 

I have seen very confident men and women broken during demanding dives to  either to sedative, unresponsive children state or frightful personalities, who see only that their own way to get out of the trouble, is to follow the leader. 

 

I have made my own mistakes underwater, running out of air in the environment, I was not accustomed. My dive buddy, with far more air, asked me how much air I had. I had virtually none.

 

When working as divemaster, when I notice a person in distress I do push my mask to the other person's mask, to see us eye to eye, to share the moment.

 

For these people, in their state, nothing works. These actions precede many minutes of active observation. The way they move their limbs, the way they communicate with others etc.

 

Different people react to panic in diffrent ways. Some halt and become passive, submissive, some become aggressive (I suppose I would be one, if I would think my life would be in danger). Only few people are able to function properly during extreme distress. 

I guess the key to solve this rescue operation is not to let these kids to get to the state of extreme distress. 

 

Sedation is not the worst option for them in this situation. The goal is to get back home, no matter what. 

I am sure those experienced rescuers (onsite and with input from other "specialists") will be able to consider all the options, prioritise them and put a scheme into operation.

 

Providing always, some big-noting policeman zips his lip!

[lvr181]

6 minutes ago, Old York said:

Drilling rigs can be helicoptered in. I have done this in very remote and inaccessible areas. The problem is drilling to a very precise location and maybe GPS locating would help if a signal can be obtained in the cave. As for rockfall drill to an adjacent dry area in the cave.

I understand from earlier comments that there is a lot of limestone around this cave system. Possibility of collapse? Maybe okay for draining water but not drilling into the kids cave from above to extract them?

Edited July 4, 2018 by lvr181
Additional wording

[bheard]

So fantastic they have been found alive. Sincerely hope they can be got out safely. They don’t really need an entire dive course - just some basics and confidence to be underwater with a mask. Very hard for these kids who may not even know how to swim, and terrible water conditions. 

It's not "may not be able to swim". None of them can swim it has been clearly stated. That's a National shame.

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[Eligius]

28 minutes ago, lvr181 said:

I understand from earlier comments that there is a lot of limestone around this cave system. Possibility of collapse? Maybe okay for draining water but not drilling into the kids cave from above to extract them?

Yes, I think drilling could be extremely dangerous, with rocks and boulders potentially falling upon the poor children, not to mention the real damage to the lungs from all the attendant air pollution (although the use of masks could help mitigate this). 

I'm beginning to think that draining the water is perhaps the best option. No money should be spared on bringing in the ultimate best, most cutting-edge technology for this purpose.

 

Teaching the kids to swim and use scuba equipment in the present circumstances, and getting them to navigate passageways that even experienced divers and rescuers find difficult, seems very dubious to me. But I am no expert in any of this.

 

I just hope that these heroic young people will somehow be brought to safety - and I feel confident that they will be.

 

Edited July 4, 2018 by Eligius

[Artisi]

8 minutes ago, Eligius said:

Yes, I think drilling could be extremely dangerous, with rocks and boulders potentially falling upon the poor children, not to mention the real damage to the lungs from all the attendant air pollution (although the use of masks could help mitigate this). 

I'm beginning to think that draining the water is perhaps the best option. No money should be spared on bringing in the ultimate best, most cutting-edge technology for this purpose.

 

Teaching the kids to swim and use scuba equipment in the present circumstances, and getting them to navigate passageways that even experienced divers and rescuers find difficult, seems very dubious to me. But I am no expert in any of this.

 

I just hope that these heroic young people will somehow be brought to safety - and I feel confident that they will be.

 

The major problem with drilling is finding the exact spot to commence the operation, the other problems of breakthru' into the cave etc. can be overcome. 

[Justfine]

35 minutes ago, bheard said:

It's not "may not be able to swim". None of them can swim it has been clearly stated. That's a National shame.

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It took world class cave divers to find them. Average swimmers and novice divers cannot cope with these narrow entrances.

 

Some entrances only 0.4m to 1.2m wide.

 

 

[Tug]

im Still following hoping and admiring the teamwork I’m not there so I won’t venture an opinion but I feel they are in good hands kudos to all from an old construction diver 

[Wilsonandson]

[djjamie]

And as part of the diver training process they’re watching videos of Neymar playing football.

[steve73]

It would probably be possible to helicopter in a drill rig suitable for say a 4-6 inch hole. (This is the kind of kit that they normally transport on a pick-up truck).  Drill debris is normally displaced back to surface using circulating water (or drill mud), so they would also need a large water source at the top of the mountain.  But if they hit a small fracture, then the fluid would leak away and they may not be able to displace the debris.  The drill may then get stuck... A large fracture would probably take the debris - at least for a while.  If successful, and they manage to hit the target, a 4-6" hole could at least be used to provide supplies more safely in the event that the cave did severely flood again making the underwater route impassable.

But a drill rig necessary to drill say a 20" hole suitable to haul up the children is a much larger piece of kit - way beyond the capacity of a helicopter, and even if it was broken down into smaller pieces and reassembled on site, you've still got the problems of removing the debris, since a 20" hole requires a lot more water to keep it clean.

 

But if they can find natural fissures and shafts (probably involving some additional digging - by hand of course) which wind their way down to the bottom streamway, then this becomes a possible egress route.  It's much safer to haul people up dry shafts, even if it requires them to do some crawling in a few horizontal sections, than dragging them out through underwater passages... But as yet no such complete access shafts have been found - or least none have been reported.

 

Edited July 4, 2018 by steve73

[ravip]

Here's a video of the 12 boys and their soccer coach trapped inside a cave in Thailand.

https://twitter.com/VeronicaRochaLA

[steve73]

Options IMO would as follows.

1. Drain the water level such that kids can crawl out.  (The risk here is a sudden down pour could flood the cave again whilst they're in egress).

2. Train the kids to be confident using mask to be able to pull themselves out using the guide ropes.  They don't need to be able to swim, since they'll be assisted by competent divers.  (It may be that only some of the kids would be confident to do this and it may be a problem if the team were split, but at least it would mean that some of them were reunited with their families sooner).

3. Continue to try to find some natural access from the surface.

4. Wait until the end of the dry season - 4 months is a long time, and there are additional risks not only to the kids, but also to the rescue teams that either remain with them or that keep diving in and out. 

 

For the reasons I mentioned previously, I don't believe drilling an access shaft (aka the Chilean rescue) is achievable in this case.

 

[pathologix]

13 minutes ago, steve73 said:

It would probably be possible to helicopter in a drill rig suitable for say a 4-6 inch hole. (This is the kind of kit that they normally transport on a pick-up truck).  Drill debris is normally displaced back to surface using circulating water (or drill mud), so they would also need a large water source at the top of the mountain.  But if they hit a small fracture, then the fluid would leak away and they may not be able to displace the debris.  The drill may then get stuck... A large fracture would probably take the debris - at least for a while.  If successful, and they manage to hit the target, a 4-6" hole could at least be used to provide supplies more safely in the event that the cave did severely flood again making the underwater route impassable.

But a drill rig necessary to drill say a 20" hole suitable to haul up the children is a much larger piece of kit - way beyond the capacity of a helicopter, and even if it was broken down into smaller pieces and reassembled on site, you've still got the problems of removing the debris, since a 20" hole requires a lot more water to keep it clean.

 

But if they can find natural fissures and shafts (probably involving some additional digging - by hand of course) which wind their way down to the bottom streamway, then this becomes a possible egress route.  It's much safer to haul people up dry shafts, even if it requires them to do some crawling in a few horizontal sections, than dragging them out through underwater passages... But as yet no such complete access shafts have been found - or least none have been reported.

 

Thanks for the expertise. I didn't even think about the many hundreds of cubic meters of limestone a drill would displace. Or about the system needed to move it back up the shaft. 

 

What I do know, from many hiking trips in that area, is that it will surely be a nightmare to transport and set up the equipment. 

 

From your experience, what is a reasonable amount of time to transport in and set up equipment in such an inhospitable environment? And how long to drill and displace a km of limestone?

[steve73]

3 minutes ago, pathologix said:

Thanks for the expertise. I didn't even think about the many hundreds of cubic meters of limestone a drill would displace. Or about the system needed to move it back up the shaft. 

 

What I do know, from many hiking trips in that area, is that it will surely be a nightmare to transport and set up the equipment. 

 

From your experience, what is a reasonable amount of time to transport in and set up equipment in such an inhospitable environment? And how long to drill and displace a km of limestone?

I'd probably suggest it would take longer to assemble the kit and drill than the wet season is expected to last... but really I'm only guessing.

[pathologix]

4 minutes ago, steve73 said:

 

1. Drain the water level such that kids can crawl out.  

Looking at some of the video and reading some of the analysis, this seems really tough. Draining a fast flowing river sounds like a sisyphean endeavor. 

[josephbloggs]

7 hours ago, kannot said:

be nice if u gave it a rest also eh?

Fair comment.  ?

[Jingthing]

I don't have the source sorry but I recently read that the type of cave they're in because of the nature of the rock there is the type of cave where water seeps in from within. Now I'm not a scientist of course but I think what they were getting at was that pumping out water closer to the entrance won't stop the water from potentially rising more where the boys are at in case of heavy rains as the water can seep up from under and around as the rock is porous. In other words there would be a limit to what pumping can accomplish. Maybe a geologist can expand on this. Basically to get them out / wait they are facing extremely difficult choices.

 

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