'Limited time' for daring rescue mission to free Thailand's trapped boys

[JAZZDOG]

3 minutes ago, cyberfarang said:

I have an idea how to get those boys out of the cave.

 

Hook a rope to a boy with a diver allocated to each boy and pull the rope along by a winch (similar as pictured below). This would mean the boys would not be required to use their own strength.

 

I am absolutely no expert and know nothing about cave rescue, but is this suggestion feasible and could it work?

You cant actually be serious. We are extracting fragile people not a hummer.

[CGW]

2 minutes ago, cyberfarang said:

I am absolutely no expert and know nothing about cave rescue, but is this suggestion feasible and could it work?

IMO -no, if it was dead straight - maybe, you would need to set a "stall" pull on the winch so if it got snagged it wouldn't keep pulling, also need what? ~ 3km of cable or rope. With all the ups and downs their would be too much friction to have any idea where the "pull" was going.

[JAZZDOG]

12 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

My math does not include a certainty that staying in place is completely safe.

On the contrary it has the following listed as complete unknowns:

-- Refuge place remainimg above water throughout the rainy season
OPEN OCEAN SURVIVAL RAFTS, COMPRESSED INTO CANASTERS OR COULD BE REMOVED TO BEND AROUND CORNERS TO GET TO DESTINATION. IF YOU COULD DELIVER ONE YOU CAN DELIVER 10.

THEY WOULD SEAL OUT THE ELEMENTS, KEEP IN PIPED OXYGEN IF NECESSARY. OXYGEN SITUATION MAY IMPROVE WITH LESS PEOPLE IN THE CAVE.
-- air pocket remaining adequate throughout the rainy season (it is already proving insufficient in O2 content requiring piped in O2 that may be difficult or impossible to continue once the cave completely floods)
INSTALLING HEAVY DUTY AIR LINES FIXED TO THE WALLS DOES NOT SEEM LIKE ANYTHING UNREASONABLE
- no one of the 15 or so people having a serious medical emergency over a 4 month period.

ONE DOCTOR AND ONE NURSE ALONG WITH AS MANY SEALS REQUIRED. THIS "MARINA" OF RAFTS CAN BE LATCHED AS ONE PROVIDING FOR WASTE, STORAGE, SLEEPING ETC. IF YOU CAN FIND A WAY TO GET THE RAFTS IN THERE IS NO LIMIT TO HOW MANY YOU PROVIDE. PATTAYA BEACH IS DISCRIBED AS A LARGE AREA WITH HIGH CEILINGS. IN ANY CASE THE PUMPING CAPACITY NEEDS TO BE INCREASED TO THE MAXIMUM WHICH I CANT SEE A LIMIT. YOU COULD ALSO INCLUDE TUTORS FOR THE KIDS FOR INTENSIA TO KEEP THEM BUSY.




Sent from my SM-J701F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

Bear with me and tell me were I'm confused. answer in CAPS above

[cyberfarang]

35 minutes ago, JAZZDOG said:

You cant actually be serious. We are extracting fragile people not a hummer.

As I said; I am no expert. Just wondering if there are any posters with caving experience that could explain why this would not work?

[Cake Monster]

I know it sounds a drastic measure, but what if the kids were sedated and then transported out as  " a limp " bundle attached to a couple or 3 really experienced divers.

The could then be passed along a human chain of divers until safety is reached

Safety may not have to be a complete exit from the cave, but it will give some relief of the pressure to the weary divers and to the kids, as ts such a long trip out.

Maybe the kids could then be woken up and could make their way out easily then under their own steam.

These are desperate times that call for desperate measures, and kids that are sedated will not struggle and be afraid.

[mike313]

4 hours ago, keith101 said:

If they swim them out what is an acceptable loss of life , one experienced diver has already died and most of these boys cant swim let alone cave dive which sees loss of life all the time (2004 19 died) biggest loss in one year . 475 deaths between 1950 and 1999 averaging just under 7 per year not good odds for bringing out 13 untrained .

 

3 hours ago, NCC1701A said:

https://twitter.com/RichardBarrow/status/1015427542520455169

 

Letter from Coach Aek to the parents: The children are well. The rescue team are looking after us well. I promise I will look after your children to the best of my ability. Thank you for your support. I want to also sincerely apologize to all of the parents. #ThamLuang #Thailand

If there is no choice then there is no choice 

[cyberfarang]

3 minutes ago, Cake Monster said:

I know it sounds a drastic measure, but what if the kids were sedated and then transported out as  " a limp " bundle attached to a couple or 3 really experienced divers.

The could then be passed along a human chain of divers until safety is reached

Safety may not have to be a complete exit from the cave, but it will give some relief of the pressure to the weary divers and to the kids, as ts such a long trip out.

Maybe the kids could then be woken up and could make their way out easily then under their own steam.

These are desperate times that call for desperate measures, and kids that are sedated will not struggle and be afraid.

Again not claiming to be an expert. But if the boys were sedated, how would they manage to keep the breathing tubes in their mouths? Under water using breathing equipment, a person has to physically breath, unlike being out in the open where air enters the body by natural means without much effort, considering air also enters our bodies through the skin, which would not occur under water or in environments with limited oxygen supply.

 

Good idea in principle, but doubt this would be an option.

[Jingthing]

3 minutes ago, mike313 said:

 

If there is no choice then there is no choice 

That would be the main good reason to do the dives. But sadly it's even more complex than that. They might have a theory and plan that they could stay there in place for months but that theory and plan might prove wrong, and then it could be too late. 

Imagine the weight of responsibility on the people making these decisions. 

Edited July 7, 2018 by Jingthing

[Cake Monster]

Just an idea

Somehow these kids have to be gotten out before the deluge starts

Leaving them inside the cave for months really is not an  option, they will be mentally scared for life

Edited July 7, 2018 by Cake Monster

[Jingthing]

5 minutes ago, Cake Monster said:

Just an idea

Somehow these kids have to be gotten out before the deluge starts

Leaving them inside the cave for months really is not an  option, they will be mentally scared for life

Yes, severe psychological damage is a risk of staying there for a long time. But they would still be alive. That's not a good enough reason to do the risky dives. The only good reason is if there is no better choice. 

[Cake Monster]

27 minutes ago, cyberfarang said:

As I said; I am no expert. Just wondering if there are any posters with caving experience that could explain why this would not work?

I did a load of caving / potholing in the Uk many years ago when I was a skinny and supple young man.

The caves ( as all cave do ) contain many sharp edges of rock along with a miriad of obstacles such as constricted space ( maybe a small as 400 mm horizontal and vertical) vertical shafts known as chimneys, boulder fields from roof collapses and a whole host of other issues

A winch would not have the sensitivity  ( touch / feel ) required to pull out the kidsas another poster said

These are humans not a Hummer

Hope this explains a little for you

[JAZZDOG]

2 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

That would be the main good reason to do the dives. But sadly it's even more complex than that. They might have a theory and plan that they could stay there in place for months but that theory and plan might prove wrong, and then it could be too late. 

Imagine the weight of responsibility on the people making these decisions. 

jingthing, from past posts you seem pretty level headed. Have you considered likely possibilities of extracting 13 kids separately as would be necessary. It's 13 distinct operations each with a degree of confidence. if you decide there is a 50/50 chance then half the kids don't make, heads or tails. Flipping heads 13 times in a row chances are 1/10,000 they all make it. A nine in ten degree of confidence gives the kids a 50/50 chance of all them making it out alive. I sure wouldn't sign off with those odds as 9 out 10 seems extremely optimistic to me and I lived my entire life on the water, surfing plus 5 years living on my ketch I delivered here from California.

We need to keep those boys out of the water. I have outlined ways I believe it can be done. I'm sure the experts have much, much better options.

[cyberfarang]

7 minutes ago, Cake Monster said:

I did a load of caving / potholing in the Uk many years ago when I was a skinny and supple young man.

The caves ( as all cave do ) contain many sharp edges of rock along with a miriad of obstacles such as constricted space ( maybe a small as 400 mm horizontal and vertical) vertical shafts known as chimneys, boulder fields from roof collapses and a whole host of other issues

A winch would not have the sensitivity  ( touch / feel ) required to pull out the kidsas another poster said

These are humans not a Hummer

Hope this explains a little for you

Yes, and thanks for explaining.

 

Just grasping at straws as for everything that may give these kids a fighting chance of getting out of there alive. It`s all very tense at the moment.

[Cake Monster]

6 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Yes, severe psychological damage is a risk of staying there for a long time. But they would still be alive. That's not a good enough reason to do the risky dives. The only good reason is if there is no better choice. 

I can tell you from experience the feeling when you exit a cave even after only a few hours underground is absolute euphoria.

No more cold, no more wet, can now get the wound on your knee sorted out, no more not being able to see as you have taken off your battery pack to squeeze through a small hole and what do you know, the bloody thing wont work any more and there you are relying on you buddies to guide you through and out safely..

Caves really are hostile and sometimes violent environments .

I really could not imagine a more hostile place to send a few months of my life, so God only knows what it would do to a child

[Jingthing]

9 minutes ago, JAZZDOG said:

jingthing, from past posts you seem pretty level headed. Have you considered likely possibilities of extracting 13 kids separately as would be necessary. It's 13 distinct operations each with a degree of confidence. if you decide there is a 50/50 chance then half the kids don't make, heads or tails. Flipping heads 13 times in a row chances are 1/10,000 they all make it. A nine in ten degree of confidence gives the kids a 50/50 chance of all them making it out alive. I sure wouldn't sign off with those odds as 9 out 10 seems extremely optimistic to me and I lived my entire life on the water, surfing plus 5 years living on my ketch I delivered here from California.

We need to keep those boys out of the water. I have outlined ways I believe it can be done. I'm sure the experts have much, much better options.

My feeling is that they should stay there for months if they can be very confident that can be managed (not flooding out and an oxygen supply). I don't think they are and not sure if they ever will be. Alternatively if they can get lucky and drain the water a lot more (unlikely as more rains come) then of course if they can mostly be walked out safely, they would do that. 

Edited July 7, 2018 by Jingthing

[smutcakes]

2 hours ago, JAZZDOG said:

Very hard to believe as it has already rained twice today. Odds are they never put those kids through that. Getting a 3/4" inch airline to those kids is not rocket science but none the less should have been a top priority already completed. You cited no source so I assume BS. They would have not delayed if the plan was still an option. Presently there is a large line of showers just a few miles to the south stretching from coastal china all the way to the coast of Myanmar. I can pretty much assure you with that much rain just a few miles south no 6 hour operation is going to begin. Last thing we need is to have a flash flood during an extraction. Have you ever thought about the degree of confidence in pulling off that insane plan? 60%, 90% What do you think because you will be flipping a coin 13 times hoping to come up heads every time. Good luck with that but that's the reality.  Keep the kids in place and multi-task the issues involved is the best way forward. Splitting up those kids and taking a shot one at a time is a statistical nightmare.

Can you pump air down 3/4" pipe for 3km? Also i believe base camp will also flood. Like you i tend to agree that diving them out is a very very risky option, but unlike you i don't believe the solutions you mention are workable. I think diving them out is the only option however risky. In some areas according to reports the gaps are so small it is necessary to take off tanks to squeeze through. I don't foresee getting RIBS down through there and filled up is a realistic plan. Its 2-3 km distance, down, up, through, around land and water, and thats before even considering that if these chambers flood they will flood, RIB or no RIB.

[Cake Monster]

1 minute ago, cyberfarang said:

Yes, and thanks for explaining.

 

Just grasping at straws as for everything that may give these kids a fighting chance of getting out of there alive. It`s all very tense at the moment.

As we all are. 

We all want these children to get out safely and be reunited with their loved ones.

By throwing all kinds of ideas into the wind, maybe, just maybe, the answer will fall to ground and be seen by somebody in the rescue team

 

[Briggsy]

35 minutes ago, cyberfarang said:

unlike being out in the open where air enters the body by natural means without much effort, considering air also enters our bodies through the skin

?

[JAZZDOG]

11 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Yes, severe psychological damage is a risk of staying there for a long time. But they would still be alive. That's not a good enough reason to do the risky dives. The only good reason is if there is no better choice. 

Actually it is possible to turn that into a positive. Integrate a doctor , nurse and tutor along with seals plus of course their coach. A lot of mentoring could take place plus the royalties these kids are going to share when they walk out will be likely in excess of 30M baht a piece.. They will be fine. Now besides losing who knows how many the stress inflected being dragged under water against your will is hard to determine. People survive at sea totally exposed to the elements for much longer. I don't see it as that big a deal unless the water goes to the very top of a high ceiling chamber that would be chosen and that likely can be determined, the record height.

What exactly do you think could not be realistically provided to stay safe 100 days.

[Jingthing]

Just now, JAZZDOG said:

...

What exactly do you think could not be realistically provided to stay safe 100 days.

Possibly a place that isn't flooded and oxygen. 

[TonyClifton]

4 hours ago, NCC1701A said:

https://twitter.com/RichardBarrow/status/1015419707539615744

 

Letter from Nik: “I love you father & mother and Toy. If we can get out, please can you take me to eat at a pan fried pork restaurant? I love you.”

 

แม่-พ่อ นิครักพ่อกับแม่เน้อ กับน้องโตย ถ้าออกไปได้ พ่อ-แม่พาไปกินหมูกระทะหน่อย นิครักพ่อ-แม่-แม่ #ThamLuang #ถ้ำหลวง #Thailand

No Disneyland wishes here.  

[toofarnorth]

3 hours ago, stevenl said:

Get them out, now. Yesterday would have been better, but do it now. All this hesitation due to IMO being afraid to make a very important decision is only putting their and other's lifes at more risk.

Much what I said about 3 days ago.  If Top Bod says get them out now and all come out today he is a hero.  If just one dies he will be hounded and in the future archives it would of been his fault . Surely someone has to make a decision and very very soon.

[TonyClifton]

That's the problem, the impetus to make a decision no matter what.

[JAZZDOG]

4 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Possibly a place that isn't flooded and oxygen

Oxygen is easy. Survival rafts are very comfy and enclosed. Did you understand the probabilities I posted attempting 13 extractions. What kind of % would you award to dragging those  kids thru the same path alive where the veteran seal perished? That's freaking scary to even think about. I guarantee you Elon Musk can not only insure oxygen / water but an exit option thru the top in less than 60 days. The guy is a freaking genus with the money to make anything happen. 

[Jingthing]

Just now, JAZZDOG said:

Oxygen is easy. Survival rafts are very comfy and enclosed. Did you understand the probabilities I posted attempting 13 extractions. What kind of % would you award to dragging those  kids thru the same path alive where the veteran seal perished? That's freaking scary to even think about. I guarantee you Elon Musk can not only insure oxygen / water but an exit option thru the top in less than 60 days. The guy is a freaking genus with the money to make anything happen. 

I totally agree the dive in these conditions is super dangerous but I don't share your total confidence yet that staying in place is really a survivable option. Above my pay grade, sorry.

[poohy]

1 hour ago, Cake Monster said:

I know it sounds a drastic measure, but what if the kids were sedated and then transported out as  " a limp " bundle attached to a couple or 3 really experienced divers.

The could then be passed along a human chain of divers until safety is reached

Safety may not have to be a complete exit from the cave, but it will give some relief of the pressure to the weary divers and to the kids, as ts such a long trip out.

Maybe the kids could then be woken up and could make their way out easily then under their own steam.

These are desperate times that call for desperate measures, and kids that are sedated will not struggle and be afraid.

TRUST ME

This would be the only way you get me out of there

[TonyClifton]

Pumpernickelporn: We must do something.

Diver: What?

Pumpernickelporn: Anything, we just have to do!

 

Good idea.  Great Plan.  Let's Do.

 

Thailand: TIT Land of optional thinking.  Full of human-doings.

[scorecard]

Has anybody noticed any statements / comments today from  Elon Musk or his team that came to Thailand or the Thai gov't. people they have spoken to? 

[JAZZDOG]

27 minutes ago, smutcakes said:

Can you pump air down 3/4" pipe for 3km? Also i believe base camp will also flood. Like you i tend to agree that diving them out is a very very risky option, but unlike you i don't believe the solutions you mention are workable. I think diving them out is the only option however risky. In some areas according to reports the gaps are so small it is necessary to take off tanks to squeeze through. I don't foresee getting RIBS down through there and filled up is a realistic plan. Its 2-3 km distance, down, up, through, around land and water, and thats before even considering that if these chambers flood they will flood, RIB or no RIB.

There is little doubt the oxygen issue can be dealt with. The problem IMHO and not bashing the Thais is this entire deal has been rather less than proactive, kinda knee-jerk. Right now there is no excuse but to have unlimited pumping capacity. I am not talking RIB but rather a round or square survival raft. They can be compressed to fit into a large suit case size container or if need be taken out, lashed like a snake and feed thru. You use whatever size that fits thru and maybe just increase the quantity.

I have faith if Elon Musk gets involved many of these issues will become non- issues. 

[hansnl]

6 hours ago, sweatalot said:

terrible. We've been so happy when they were found. We thought it's over. 

Best of luck now - and may they all get out safely

The wife & friends were elated when the boys were found.

Throwing a kind of party even.

I was told I was a grumpy old man when I said finding them was the easy part, now the real problems to get them out would surface.

I am sorry to say I was right.