SURVEY: Will major flooding be a problem?

[Scott]

The recent rains, reports of dams being near capacity and the failure of a dam in Laos raise concerns for the dangers of flooding in Thailand.   Which of the following best describes your thoughts on the issue?

 

Please feel free to leave a comment.

[Samui Bodoh]

I think, no matter the precautions or preparations humans take, it is still likely out of our hands.

 

Ask Mother Nature.

 

 

Edited August 5, 2018 by Samui Bodoh
Lack of coffee

[grollies]

Not if you're a duck.

[DavisH]

Another case of reservoir managers being asleep at the wheel. Dams should never be at capacity this early in the wet season. Surely they see the dam levels increasing constantly over time and discharges managed accordingly. This is the same problem we had in 2011 where many large dams were allowed to fill to capacity. More rains meant they had to be discharged at a high rate, causing flooding over vast areas. I know discharges from dams above the Mae Klong have been low; the nephew has been catching lots of catfish in Ratchaburi on their land next to the river as he said the water is almost stationary (and I've never seen the water stationary here for a number of years). I see a repeat of 2011 if a lot of water is not discharged now, and continues until dam levels drop significantly.

[anon537687643]

oh its going to be big(Nam tua) Sub centra Thailand ,Ayutthaya etc 2011 coming again. sooner or later!!!

[Thailand]

Depends weather or not the government declares there will be no major flooding this year.

[overherebc]

Will major flooding be a problem?

Yes, it generally is.

[Bluespunk]

Hmm, that reminds me, must remember to repair my rubber dinghy. 

Edited August 5, 2018 by Bluespunk

[Cadbury]

Will major flooding be a problem? Yes, it is a fait accompli.

Last year the Water Resources Department was put under the supervision of the PM’s Office and PM Prayut appointed himself as Chairman of the National Water Resources  Committee.

[Get Real]

Will major flooding be a problem?

 

Seriously? Major flooding have always been, still is and is always going to be a problem. Even a minor flooding in a restricted local area often becomes a big issue and problem for affected land and people. Even a water leakage in the kitchen is a big problem. 

Edited August 5, 2018 by Get Real

[Get Real]

9 minutes ago, Cadbury said:

Will major flooding be a problem? Yes, it is a fait accompli.

Last year the Water Resources Department was put under the supervision of the PM’s Office and PM Prayut appointed himself as Chairman of the National Water Resources  Committee.

That was last year! That is soo long time ago and soo far gone in the hitory that it has been long forgotten.

[Cadbury]

7 minutes ago, Get Real said:

That was last year! That is soo long time ago and soo far gone in the hitory that it has been long forgotten.

Not so. Only two days ago the National Water Supply Commission set up a "war room " to analyse the situation with reservoirs and dams.

Seems like an official war has been declared against water. A submarine would come in handy to fight the accursed enemy.

[utalkin2me]

What do international scientists say about this? I know Thailand did a study that said "bkk will be underwater in 15 years". But is there scientific concensus on this? I looked but I just kept finding the Thai study. I love Thailand but I do not necessarily have confidence in their science divisions. 

[connda]

It's the difference between being reactive vs being proactive.

Thais culturally are reactive with their "live for today" mai bpen rai attitudes.
Being proactive requires that one has the ability of anticipate the future and plan accordingly.  This is not a strong point for Thais in general. 

Their best bet would be to outsource water management to outside firms, like in the Netherlands.  But because the sun, moon, and stars revolve around Thailand, this will never happen.  Thailand: by and for Thais ("we no need farang water management expert help us").  And as such, the flooding issues will never be resolved.  More likely that the government will request assistance from the Buddhist Grand Patriarch to send monks to all the dams to make offerings to the water god, Naga.  That's about as proactive as they can get here in the Land of Superstition. 

Edited August 5, 2018 by connda

[utalkin2me]

The question is worded so poorly. Of course there is going to be flooding. It is 100%. When is the question, not if. 

 

So, when? What is the scientific concensus, if there is one. I doubt there us because something like this is too complicated to figure out. 

[utalkin2me]

If I trust anyone to start predicting when the floods will be it is big businesses and factories setup in Bangkok. When they start moving to a bit higher geound is when my money is on the flooding coming. 

 

So, are companies moving yet?

[Cadbury]

2 minutes ago, utalkin2me said:

If I trust anyone to start predicting when the floods will be it is big businesses and factories setup in Bangkok. When they start moving to a bit higher geound is when my money is on the flooding coming. 

 

So, are companies moving yet?

My best tip-off is when they start sandbagging to divert waters to protect the wealthier parts of Bangkok city while leaving the poorer suburbs to fend for themselves; just as they did in 2014.

[Snow Leopard]

When has flooding not been a problem? Its not only Thailand that has and faces this problem. Look at Laos recently. Many countries find it hard to deal with. I do think though that Thailand has a whole as the resources to deal with it and manage it better. 

[CGW]

4 hours ago, DavisH said:

Another case of reservoir managers being asleep at the wheel. Dams should never be at capacity this early in the wet season. Surely they see the dam levels increasing constantly over time and discharges managed accordingly. This is the same problem we had in 2011 where many large dams were allowed to fill to capacity. More rains meant they had to be discharged at a high rate, causing flooding over vast areas. I know discharges from dams above the Mae Klong have been low; the nephew has been catching lots of catfish in Ratchaburi on their land next to the river as he said the water is almost stationary (and I've never seen the water stationary here for a number of years). I see a repeat of 2011 if a lot of water is not discharged now, and continues until dam levels drop significantly.

Were they "asleep at the wheel"?

Go to this website http://www.thaiwater.net/DATA/REPORT/php/rid_dam_1.php?lang=en then click on the dam name and you will get a graph showing how quickly the water level increased, this wasn't a gradual increase over time, a huge amount of water was dumped in a very short period of time, we can only Try and control the weather, but at times its going to bite back and show who is the real Boss!

[Laza 45]

...depends where you live.. so far this rainy season most of the the rain has been in the north east Isaan provinces.. the Isaan basin drains into the Mekong River near Ubon Rachitani.. so no threat to Bangkok..  along the Chi river.. Khon Kaen area to Ubon there already is flooding.. and the tributaries leading into the Chi are having some flooding.. Places along the Mekong... Nakon Phanom & Mukdahan are experiencing flooding from the very high levels of that river from water coming down from China and norther Laos and heavy local rains.  Sakon Nakon is having flooding from heavy local rain..  There are still 6 or 8 weeks left of this rainy season and more heavy  rain expected.. maybe it will fall in the Chao Praya basin affecting Bangkok.... maybe it won't.. There is not much the government can do about where it falls ... They have set up their 'war room' and are monitoring the situation on a daily basis.. what else can you expect them to do? 

[Laza 45]

49 minutes ago, CGW said:

Were they "asleep at the wheel"?

Go to this website http://www.thaiwater.net/DATA/REPORT/php/rid_dam_1.php?lang=en then click on the dam name and you will get a graph showing how quickly the water level increased, this wasn't a gradual increase over time, a huge amount of water was dumped in a very short period of time, we can only Try and control the weather, but at times its going to bite back and show who is the real Boss!

Very interesting site.. thanks for that.  Dam management everywhere has a couple of dilemmas built in.. is the dam there primarily  for flood control or for water storage... if it also has a hydro electric system built in that can create another conflicting interest.  If the water level is too low at the end of the rainy season and a drought follows.. as it often does these days management would be criticized.  With a hydro electric system in palace a full dam represent a huge potential in stored power.. in a power hungry country.  Not easy to get everything right..  

[Thaidream]

As one of the posters has already stated- I see visions of a 2011 repeat .  I was living in Pathum Thani and had to evacuate my house by boat as the water level rose to neck high.  This was mostly caused by a Bangkok Administration which blocked water flow to save central Bangkok from even modest flooding.  This action cost many of us (mostly Thais) many hundreds of thousands of Baht in repairs.  It should have never happened.

 

The dams were allowed to fill to capacity and then emptied flooding many industrial estates.  Honda in Ayuthaya lost about 5,000 newly build vehicles not to mention private owners who lost them.  The  Government set up evacuation areas in Thammasat University and Don Muang Airport both of which flooded leavig no alternative.  People were parking their vehicles 3 abreast on the Don Muang Tollway and actually pitching tents and cooking on the tollway itself.a

 

Several of the dams are already at 80-90% capacity and if there is heavy rain for the next few months- expect another flood crisis in Thailand and the same old argument on whether to allow Bangkok to flood somewhat so other provinces will not be deluged. Most of us already know what that answer will be.

[SunsetT]

6 hours ago, Get Real said:

Will major flooding be a problem?

 

Seriously? Major flooding have always been, still is and is always going to be a problem. Even a minor flooding in a restricted local area often becomes a big issue and problem for affected land and people. Even a water leakage in the kitchen is a big problem. 

Thats why many traditional Thai houses were on stilts.

 

[NoshowJones]

8 hours ago, grollies said:

Not if you're a duck.

and not if your'e a street food vendor clogging up the drains with your'e rubbish.

[Kiwiken]

The dams up the Mekong will be disasters to come. Rising sea levels and attempts to protect Bangkok which lies on the flood plain will exaggerate the problems up Country. Sadly the choice for Thailand is bad either way. Bangkok will in large part be gone in 50 years. Not planning for this will be the tragedy

[billd766]

4 hours ago, Kiwiken said:

The dams up the Mekong will be disasters to come. Rising sea levels and attempts to protect Bangkok which lies on the flood plain will exaggerate the problems up Country. Sadly the choice for Thailand is bad either way. Bangkok will in large part be gone in 50 years. Not planning for this will be the tragedy

 

IMHO the most terrifying dam to fall would be the Three Gorges dam in China. If that falls the domino effect will be all the way down to Vietnam with Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam all suffering. The domino effect will take out every dam on the way.

[Quidio]

The prospect of flooding scares me.   During the 2011 floods, it took the government way too long to acknowledge there was a problem and when they did it was a very serious problem.   

[Credo]

15 hours ago, utalkin2me said:

The question is worded so poorly. Of course there is going to be flooding. It is 100%. When is the question, not if. 

 

So, when? What is the scientific concensus, if there is one. I doubt there us because something like this is too complicated to figure out. 

I always like responses like that.   It reminds me of a student who got a zero on an exam and said that all his answers were right but the questions were wrong.   

 

 

[utalkin2me]

39 minutes ago, Credo said:

I always like responses like that.   It reminds me of a student who got a zero on an exam and said that all his answers were right but the questions were wrong.   

 

 

Honestly, the wording is very bad. Flooding happens every year. Flooding is already a major problem.

 

Here is the question: when is the low part of BKK going to be under water? I think that is what people are discussing here. And again, there is no "if". It is going to happen. Think what you want, but those are the questions that need answering, and the facts we know already. 

[Scott]

Here's a new thread on one of the dams having a problem: