Brexit turmoil hits the pound

[VBF]

BBC Pound steadies after biggest fall since 2016 (LINK)

Not making any particular point here, just posting "FYI" as it's relevant to the thread.

 

It must be remembered though that the thing that all Financial Markets (Currency or Stock) fear the most is uncertainty.

So expect more volatility for a while.

Edited November 16, 2018 by VBF

[SheungWan]

One reason for the immediate recovery of Sterling might be a consideration that the Hard Brexit project is dead in the water counting Parliamentary votes.

[hobobo]

5 hours ago, nickmondo said:

that is a very small fall in the value of the pound against the baht, and has been doing this for ages

The "very small fall" as you call it is over 20% in 29 months. Compared to Argentinian, Zimbabwean and a few other currencies it is small, but not among the healthy economies.

[Wake Up]

8 hours ago, Daveyh said:

We should just walk away. No deal, no payment .... nothing. Two world wars & the Germans are dictating to the other members within the EU, with support (surprise, surprise) from France who we liberated from their clutches! 

Lest we forget ............. our fallen must be turning in their graves. They owe us & they should be paying back all that money we borrowed during these wars & after, plus all the millions we spent helping europe to rebuild. We were broke then & no one helped us ....... I'd let them rot personally. Their treatment of the UK is shameful ...... fact.

You filed for divorce. What do you expect a goodbye kiss and a thank you?  You entered into this marriage voluntarily. Divorce is rarely cheap or fair. And if you read history your attitude was the attitude the British and French took after WW1 which IMO caused WW2. And I have nothing but good things to say about the British and other soldiers of WW2.  They were some of the great humans ever on the planet. 

[AlexRich]

5 hours ago, Sumarianson said:

I hated Margret Thatcher but I must say, she would have solved this by now and got the deal she wanted and not Europe. Exit without a deal and pay no more money to them 

 

Yes, brilliant idea ... and don't worry about the businesses and jobs that will be destroyed as a consequence, not to mention the trashing of GBP. The original argument from Brexiteers is that we would all be so much better off? Now we all know that was a  fantasy, and all they have left to offer us is a scorched earth policy ... Thatcher was never stupid enough to pursue the policy in the first place.

[mfd101]

13 hours ago, KiChakayan said:

Ohhh you remember  WW2, I remember the One Hundred Years War. Please don't be ridiculous. 

I guess there are a few like you across the Chanel, but I don't think even Farage or Johnson  could have written such nonsense.

Yes, fairy stories are still popular in Merrie Ol' England. St George and the Dragon doing particularly well.

[Kwasaki]

18 hours ago, dotpoom said:

??? I thought the "hold up" was trying to avoid a "hard border" between Northern and Southern Ireland. That is a really difficult hurdle to overcome 

Not really UK says leave it as it is let the EU & Eire sort it if they see it as a problem..

[Baerboxer]

20 hours ago, jesimps said:

The people voted Leave, the govt failed to deliver on account of the PM and most of the cabinet being Remainers. No lies involved, the people made up their own minds.

 

Really. So all that Boris and Nigel said, and things plastered on the side of buses and billboards was all true, honest and will happen then?

[Baerboxer]

15 hours ago, Wake Up said:

You filed for divorce. What do you expect a goodbye kiss and a thank you?  You entered into this marriage voluntarily. Divorce is rarely cheap or fair. And if you read history your attitude was the attitude the British and French took after WW1 which IMO caused WW2. And I have nothing but good things to say about the British and other soldiers of WW2.  They were some of the great humans ever on the planet. 

 

Off topic but complete nonsense to blame the Treaty of Versaille for WW11. A good story for German historians and the usual conciliators. The Americans fell for that easy excuse and pressured their allies not to do the same after WW11 - so they made their allies pay for it instead of the lot that started it! Nice - as long as someone pays they're happy.

 

Any member of any organization, including the EU, can leave if they choose to. Particularly if they don't agree with the direction the club is going anymore. Germany uses its economic might, established and paid for by the victors of WW11, to browbeat and blackmail other member states to its will. Supported by the short memory French who still cry about Napoleon, Waterloo and Agincourt and delude themselves they are Germany's equal partner.

 

Having said that, it's ludicrous to believe the referendum was anything but Cameron trying to smack the Tory anti-EU and spike the growth in UKIP. He ballsed it all up and bottled out. And no Tory leader dare say the referendum was only advisory, which it was, and put it to parliament, which is what a representative democracy supposed to do. 

[superal]

22 hours ago, VBF said:

Me too, unless the definition of democracy means one group of unelected fatcats imposing their will over everyone in sight.....

I also agree with @Daveyh and @Pedrogaz   and @guest879above.

 

If Lady Thatcher was the "Iron Lady", May is "The tin-can bi**h"

AND...I'm a Conservative by both choice and nature!

As you well know she was a Brexit remainer and because of that it has influenced the negotiations and I reckon that there is , or she has , a conflict of interest and I do not trust her or the residue of her cabinet .

[Wake Up]

9 hours ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Off topic but complete nonsense to blame the Treaty of Versaille for WW11. A good story for German historians and the usual conciliators. The Americans fell for that easy excuse and pressured their allies not to do the same after WW11 - so they made their allies pay for it instead of the lot that started it! Nice - as long as someone pays they're happy.

 

Any member of any organization, including the EU, can leave if they choose to. Particularly if they don't agree with the direction the club is going anymore. Germany uses its economic might, established and paid for by the victors of WW11, to browbeat and blackmail other member states to its will. Supported by the short memory French who still cry about Napoleon, Waterloo and Agincourt and delude themselves they are Germany's equal partner.

 

Having said that, it's ludicrous to believe the referendum was anything but Cameron trying to smack the Tory anti-EU and spike the growth in UKIP. He ballsed it all up and bottled out. And no Tory leader dare say the referendum was only advisory, which it was, and put it to parliament, which is what a representative democracy supposed to do. 

I strongly disagree about the facts and assumptions in your post. But like all people and countries that file for divorce you don’t like the processs and think you are being mistreated by your soon to be ex.  If I was British I would not be disparaging the history of others. Maybe you can return all the priceless artifacts you stole and put in the British museum. Maybe you don’t get the proper respect you think you deserve LMAO. Brexit is a stupid idea and you have to pay the consequences of a nasty divorce you started.  Get real and look in the British mirror.  

[joecoolfrog]

12 hours ago, superal said:

As you well know she was a Brexit remainer and because of that it has influenced the negotiations and I reckon that there is , or she has , a conflict of interest and I do not trust her or the residue of her cabinet .

Total Red Herring !

Both Davis and Raab ( Brexit secretaries ) were commited leavers but simply couldnt negotiate the deal that they had promised. Its easy to make bold claims , somewhat more difficult to deliver them , Farage knew that full well which is why he went missing.

[adammike]

4 hours ago, Wake Up said:

I strongly disagree about the facts and assumptions in your post. But like all people and countries that file for divorce you don’t like the processs and think you are being mistreated by your soon to be ex.  If I was British I would not be disparaging the history of others. Maybe you can return all the priceless artifacts you stole and put in the British museum. Maybe you don’t get the proper respect you think you deserve LMAO. Brexit is a stupid idea and you have to pay the consequences of a nasty divorce you started.  Get real and look in the British mirror.  

English mirror if you please,two quotes from the guardian today in an article from Timothy Garton Ash,"the English are going to have to cry a river of tears"and "we want to rub their English nose in it" and yes they do understand about Northern Ireland,Scotland and Wales.

Edited November 17, 2018 by adammike
Spelling

[superal]

8 hours ago, joecoolfrog said:

Total Red Herring !

Both Davis and Raab ( Brexit secretaries ) were commited leavers but simply couldnt negotiate the deal that they had promised. Its easy to make bold claims , somewhat more difficult to deliver them , Farage knew that full well which is why he went missing.

How could Farage get involved in the negotiations ? though I wish he had of as know one has more knowledge than him with the workings of the E.C.   As for Farage " went missing " whats that all about ?

The pound has suffered hugely since the leave vote was declared and continued to weaken because of the long drawn out divorce arrangements . The UK appears to have been given a beating by the E.C. team and all this prolonged settlement has brought uncertainty to many businesses . It really has been a bag of <deleted> the way the UK government has handled it . If in the private sector the shareholders would screaming and demanding an immediate resolution . The UK should have taken the stance of being in the driving seat from the very beginning , instead of being like a boxer who is just defending himself and not throwing punches . Needs a change of leader who is a strong character and can bring renewed confidence to the world to invest and trade with the UK and so lift the pounds value .

[Joe Mcseismic]

On 11/16/2018 at 2:24 PM, Daveyh said:

We should just walk away. No deal, no payment .... nothing. Two world wars & the Germans are dictating to the other members within the EU, with support (surprise, surprise) from France who we liberated from their clutches! 

Lest we forget ............. our fallen must be turning in their graves. They owe us & they should be paying back all that money we borrowed during these wars & after, plus all the millions we spent helping europe to rebuild. We were broke then & no one helped us ....... I'd let them rot personally. Their treatment of the UK is shameful ...... fact.

Yes, that was exactly how people felt and acted after World War I.......................................and the result was World War II.

[rickudon]

10 minutes ago, superal said:

How could Farage get involved in the negotiations ? though I wish he had of as know one has more knowledge than him with the workings of the E.C.   As for Farage " went missing " whats that all about ?

Knowledge of the workings of the E.C.? He had the worst attendance record of any MEP. Farage said 'job done' after the vote and walked away. It was only after the vote that when 'Vote Leave' campaigners were asked about what their plans were, said "We haven't got any". And 2 years later, Brexiteers still have no plans, just a mysterious goal that they do not know how to reach, So always back to basics, destroy what we have, everything will then miraculously be better and if you disagree you are a traitor! Sound more like Imans issuing fatwas. 

[dick dasterdly]

The pound/bht rose to over 50 shortly before the referendum result, on the assumption that the vote would be 'leave'.

 

It then fell dramatically to 44/45 bht (IIRC) after the result - even though nothing had actually changed, or was likely to change for quite a while!

 

Since then, it has gradually reduced to around 42 bht.  Why?  Surely the lowest point should have been immediately after the referendum when it looked as if the uk was actually going to leave?

 

Money markets looking to make money by playing 'games' IMO - although to be fair, the continual uncertainty doesn't help.

 

Even if the uk suddenly announced that it was going to ignore the referendum - does anyone think sterling would suddenly bounce back to the 50 level?

[superal]

3 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

The pound/bht rose to over 50 shortly before the referendum result, on the assumption that the vote would be 'leave'.

 

It then fell dramatically to 44/45 bht (IIRC) after the result - even though nothing had actually changed, or was likely to change for quite a while!

 

Since then, it has gradually reduced to around 42 bht.  Why?  Surely the lowest point should have been immediately after the referendum when it looked as if the uk was actually going to leave?

 

Money markets looking to make money by playing 'games' IMO - although to be fair, the continual uncertainty doesn't help.

 

Even if the uk suddenly announced that it was going to ignore the referendum - does anyone think sterling would suddenly bounce back to the 50 level?

I believe it is all about the money markets predictions / confidence in the country in question , plus of course any political or Bank of England statements / forecasts .  I read recently where a currency dealer said that he was having a tough time making a profit and likened it to eating soup with a spoon .

What is about to happen with the final Brexit decision will impact on the pounds valuation .  Now would we have felt any loss had we converted to the Euro currency when we joined the E.U. ?  Maybe when we reverted to the pound until it found its level .

[joecoolfrog]

2 hours ago, dick dasterdly said:

The pound/bht rose to over 50 shortly before the referendum result, on the assumption that the vote would be 'leave'.

 

It then fell dramatically to 44/45 bht (IIRC) after the result - even though nothing had actually changed, or was likely to change for quite a while!

 

Since then, it has gradually reduced to around 42 bht.  Why?  Surely the lowest point should have been immediately after the referendum when it looked as if the uk was actually going to leave?

 

Money markets looking to make money by playing 'games' IMO - although to be fair, the continual uncertainty doesn't help.

 

Even if the uk suddenly announced that it was going to ignore the referendum - does anyone think sterling would suddenly bounce back to the 50 level?

Exactly the opposite , Sterling rose on the eve of the vote because the expectation was a majority voting to REMAIN. It was the subsequent LEAVE result that caused the spectacular decline.

The continuing fall over the last couple of years has simply reflected events. Rightly or wrongly the market views a ' hard ' Brexit ,or worse still no deal, as a bad future economic indicator.

Were the BREXIT decision reversed then yes Sterling would rise very sharply in the short term certainly . Longer term would depend on the political climate , a Corbyn government would see another huge Sterling sell off.

Edited November 18, 2018 by joecoolfrog

[evadgib]

I'm glad we're leaving and couldn't care less about any short term consequences as we'll surely be better off in the long run.

Good riddance! ????

[Kwasaki]

2 hours ago, superal said:

What is about to happen with the final Brexit decision will impact on the pounds valuation .

Now would we have felt any loss had we converted to the Euro currency when we joined the E.U. 

Maybe when we reverted to the pound until it found its level .

I sometimes wonder what the future fortune tellers here think will happen to EU once UK has got rid of weight off it's back.

 

Felt if UK was euro I'd say yes that's why UK didn't convert, the euro has been a success for Germany and a disaster for the rest of EU members by some accounts.

 

[AlexRich]

16 minutes ago, evadgib said:

I'm glad we're leaving and couldn't care less about any short term consequences as we'll surely be better off in the long run.

Good riddance! ????

 

11,000 members of the farmers union in Northern Ireland would disagree. They believe that a "no deal" would wipe out their industry? And they are not alone ... our car manufacturing would slowly disappear. Port Talbot steel would be priced out of business inside the WTO ... it would be a financial disaster for many businesses, and many people who will lose their job will be brexit supporters. 

 

Perhaps it doesn't affect you personally, so you just don't care? But I do think you are going to be disappointed in the end, because cross-party MPs are likely to push for a second referendum, and that is the risk that extreme brexit lovers are taking if there is no deal.

[evadgib]

You cannot have a peoples vote on a peoples vote any more than Chris Waddle or Stuart Pearce could have peoples penalties in 1990 when they f***** theirs up! ????

Edited November 18, 2018 by evadgib

[AlexRich]

7 minutes ago, evadgib said:

You cannot have a peoples vote on a peoples vote any more than Chris Waddle or Stuart Pearce could have peoples penalties in 1990 when they f***** theirs up! ????

 

You are indulging in wishful thinking. It is very likely that, faced with "no deal", remain MPs across the House will force a vote on a second referendum ... you not liking that does not mean that it cannot happen. They have the numbers in parliament.

Edited November 18, 2018 by AlexRich

[roo860]

I believe it is all about the money markets predictions / confidence in the country in question , plus of course any political or Bank of England statements / forecasts .  I read recently where a currency dealer said that he was having a tough time making a profit and likened it to eating soup with a spoon .
What is about to happen with the final Brexit decision will impact on the pounds valuation .  Now would we have felt any loss had we converted to the Euro currency when we joined the E.U. ?  Maybe when we reverted to the pound until it found its level .

I thought you always eat soup with a spoon, using a fork would be a tad difficult, unless it's vegetable soup.

Sent from my SM-G920F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[mfd101]

23 minutes ago, AlexRich said:

 

You are indulging in wishful thinking. It is very likely that, faced with "no deal", remain MPs across the House will force a vote on a second referendum ... you not liking that does not mean that it cannot happen. They have the numbers in parliament.

WHOEVER has the numbers in the Parliament has no need - legally or constitutionally - of any referendum. Politically however it would certainly be sensible - for EVERYONE's sake - to hold a 2nd referendum on the terms negotiated for putting the first referendum's outcome into effect.

 

But that might just be too rational for the British, or at least the English.

[AlexRich]

4 minutes ago, mfd101 said:

WHOEVER has the numbers in the Parliament has no need - legally or constitutionally - of any referendum. Politically however it would certainly be sensible - for EVERYONE's sake - to hold a 2nd referendum on the terms negotiated for putting the first referendum's outcome into effect.

 

But that might just be too rational for the British, or at least the English.

 

This is an English adventure.

[BritManToo]

4 minutes ago, mfd101 said:

to hold a 2nd referendum on the terms negotiated for putting the first referendum's outcome into effect.

It would be political suicide, it would cast into doubt any future democratic votes.

[AlexRich]

2 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

It would be political suicide, it would cast into doubt any future democratic votes.

 

It was done in Ireland several years ago without any subsequent issue. I would agree with you if MPs decided to end Brexit without referring it back to the voter ... that would be undemocratic. But a democratic vote by it's very nature is an act of democracy. Just as we change governments in elections. In the future we should avoid settling complicated matters by referendums.

[evadgib]

'Sending it back until we get the right vote' would render UK a laughing stock & make general elections etc a thing of the past. Wee Jimmy Cranky & Co would have a field day ????