Extreme Brexit could be worse than financial crisis for UK: BoE

[Guest]

1 hour ago, My Thai Life said:

The UK Office of National Statistics reports that exports in the last year to non-EU countries were £342 billion while exports to EU countries were £274 billion.

 

In the same period, the growth in exports continued to outstrip the growth in imports, almost halving the UK’s trade deficit from £23.4 billion to £15.8 billion. Most exceptionally, since the referendum, exports have increased by £111 billion to £610 billion. (This demonstrates that the BoE pre-referendum forecast was wrong.)

 

Add to this the fact that British firms raised by far the most venture capital in the EU this year – over 70pc more than France or Germany.

While you are doing the numbers. Calculate what amount of those deals were done by (free) trade agreements, negotiated by EU on behalf of UK and other EU member countries.

 

The trade agreements UK will no longer have after 3 months. 

[Guest]

44 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

As reported by me a couple of weeks ago:

 

John Longworth, the former director general of the British Chamber of Commerce, has organized a letter to Conservative MPs to vote down Theresa May’s Brexit deal, describing it as “the worst of all worlds”.

 

The letter, signed by the heads of medium-sized businesses who have a combined turnover of over £2 billion a year and employ at least 45,000 people nationwide, says that the deal “offers the EU carte blanche to impose uncompetitive and deliberately punitive policies on the UK, selling British business down the river”.

 

Their preferred alternative is to leave the European Union without a deal. “At present, 92% of British companies do not trade with the EU at all. And this 92% account for 87% of the UK economy.”

While on your previous message you talked about 500 billion exports, now you are talking about 2 billion turnout. That's less than 0.5% of the 500 billion of exports, not turnout. 

 

 

[My Thai Life]

45 minutes ago, sandyf said:

For a truly global Britain, we need the Government to enhance specific support for small exporters to reach new customers and to negotiate ambitious UK-specific trade deals with large and emerging markets.

Agreed 100% Sandy.

[Grouse]

4 hours ago, talahtnut said:

So what is the point of remain? An open and shut case.

By any rational analysis, remaining in the EU is the best option

 

We should change the EU from within; I think we have many allies now.

[My Thai Life]

4 hours ago, talahtnut said:

So what is the point of remain? An open and shut case.

It's a good question. The remain argument lost 2 years ago, and it still has lost. All that the continuing remain propaganda has done is to weaken the UK's negotiating position. Even the arch remainer Ivan Rogers recognises that a 2nd referendum is out of the question.

 

I guess Blair is one of the most recognisable leaders of remain now. A man who started out with such high promise, degenerating into corruption in government, war-mongering, corruption in business, and now anti-democracy. His very presence in the remain camp has driven many into leave, but he's far too pompous to understand that.

 

The long-term reasons for leaving are even clearer now than they were a couple of years. The EU's crowning glory, the euro, condemns millions of Europe’s young to unemployment or forced migration. And the EU's trade policies impoverish poor countries and add to the tide of migrants. 

 

 

[talahtnut]

48 minutes ago, Grouse said:

By any rational analysis, remaining in the EU is the best option

 

We should change the EU from within; I think we have many allies now.

The UK economy is knackered. The EU economy is knackered,

so we remain, is your 'rational analysis', why? 

The best way out of this is to be independent from the EU, 

our government must cease being subservient to the banks,

I cant see the EU allowing that if we remain.

UK Banks must be brought to heel and regulated.

 

[talahtnut]

2 hours ago, My Thai Life said:

3 hours ago, sandyf said:

For a truly global Britain, we need the Government to enhance specific support for small exporters to reach new customers and to negotiate ambitious UK-specific trade deals with large and emerging markets.

Yeah UK banks are not fit for purpose, only 3.5 percent

of business lending by UK banks went into our

manufacturing whilst 60 percent went to financial

intermediaries like private equity funds.

Wheres the government when you need it?

[evadgib]

2 hours ago, Grouse said:

By any rational analysis, remaining in the EU is the best option

 

We should change the EU from within; I think we have many allies now.

They've only just started listening despite ferage & co working among 'em for donkeys.

 

Edited December 23, 2018 by evadgib

[evadgib]

More Nostalgia????

 

[evadgib]

...& here's Maggie ????

 

[sandyf]

4 hours ago, My Thai Life said:

I'll remind you again that employment in the UK is at a high,

 

Work is the best route out of poverty – it’s a slogan popular with politicians both left and right for the past two decades.

But as the country surges towards record numbers of people in work – the number of those in work and in poverty too is also rising.

https://www.channel4.com/news/the-working-poor-britains-families-living-on-the-breadline

[rixalex]

By any rational analysis, remaining in the EU is the best option
 
We should change the EU from within; I think we have many allies now.

By any British person, living and working in the EU, remaining in the EU is the best option, more like.

As for changing the EU from within, well yes, because after all this, if we do end up remaining, the EU will surely be terrified that if they don't listen to our issues, we'll just leave. Can see it now. Britain's PM to the EU: "We've shown you once how easy it is, don't let us have to show you again".

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[sandyf]

4 hours ago, My Thai Life said:

Agreed 100% Sandy.

Small exporters have been looking for specific support from the government for longer than I can remember, and the only thing of any real benefit was the single market.

What on earth makes people think that the government will ever change their ways.

[Grouse]

3 hours ago, talahtnut said:

The UK economy is knackered. The EU economy is knackered,

so we remain, is your 'rational analysis', why? 

The best way out of this is to be independent from the EU, 

our government must cease being subservient to the banks,

I cant see the EU allowing that if we remain.

UK Banks must be brought to heel and regulated.

 

The EU will certainly survive but change is coming. The Euro needs rethinking for sure

 

The banks need bringing to heel certainly

 

BUT remaining will be massively better for our economy and will be good for the EU for many reasons

[Grouse]

2 hours ago, rixalex said:

By any British person, living and working in the EU, remaining in the EU is the best option, more like.

As for changing the EU from within, well yes, because after all this, if we do end up remaining, the EU will surely be terrified that if they don't listen to our issues, we'll just leave. Can see it now. Britain's PM to the EU: "We've shown you once how easy it is, don't let us have to show you again".

Sent from my SM-G610F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

You probably don't know but things have changed over the last two or three years. The EU will now be more approachable and changes could be achieved.

 

Not with Corbyn though. He is not good enough to be leader of the opposition.

 

This is not a zero sum game. Do you understand that

 

Aggressive negotiating will fail. The EU is much more interested in mutual consent and concordance.

Edited December 23, 2018 by Grouse

[talahtnut]

13 minutes ago, Grouse said:

BUT remaining will be massively better for our economy and will be good for the EU for many reasons

I believe you are right in that we would be good for

the EU, as we have been for some time.

I can not imagine how another tier of autocratic

expensive government would benefit the UK.

The EU has already caused too much chaos to countries

within the community, that should be warning bell.

The UK needs to unfettered from foreign influences

and someone needs to enter parliament with a sword

like Cromwell, and clear the b'stards out.

 

[Grouse]

3 minutes ago, talahtnut said:

I believe you are right in that we would be good for

the EU, as we have been for some time.

I can not imagine how another tier of autocratic

expensive government would benefit the UK.

The EU has already caused too much chaos to countries

within the community, that should be warning bell.

The UK needs to unfettered from foreign influences

and someone needs to enter parliament with a sword

like Cromwell, and clear the b'stards out.

 

Our parliament is no longer fit for purpose. An absolute monarchy would be better right now...

[talahtnut]

22 minutes ago, Grouse said:

Our parliament is no longer fit for purpose. An absolute monarchy would be better right now...

This is not right Grouse, I'm tempted to agree with you,

but I imagine a military coup would eradicate the

establishment more efficiently.

[tebee]

Just now, talahtnut said:

This is not right Grouse, I'm tempted to agree with you,

but I imagine a military coup would eradicate the

establishment more efficiently.

Anything would be better right now!

[rixalex]

You probably don't know but things have changed over the last two or three years. The EU will now be more approachable and changes could be achieved.
 
Not with Corbyn though. He is not good enough to be leader of the opposition.
 
This is not a zero sum game. Do you understand that
 
Aggressive negotiating will fail. The EU is much more interested in mutual consent and concordance.

Negotiating doesn't have to be aggressive but it does have to be assertive otherwise you end up with nothing, as has been ably demonstrated by this government.

If the country isn't able to assert itself with the backing of the mandate of a public vote behind it, there's a snowflake in hell's chance that back in the EU, tail between its legs, the country is going to start then.

Re your line about the EU being interested in mutual accordance and concordance.... that sounds suspiciously like political speak for everyone just doing what they are told and falling into line.

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[Grouse]

3 minutes ago, talahtnut said:

This is not right Grouse, I'm tempted to agree with you,

but I imagine a military coup would eradicate the

establishment more efficiently.

Do we have enough soldiers for that? 

 

1 for every 800 citizens?

[Grouse]

5 minutes ago, rixalex said:

Negotiating doesn't have to be aggressive but it does have to be assertive otherwise you end up with nothing, as has been ably demonstrated by this government.

If the country isn't able to assert itself with the backing of the mandate of a public vote behind it, there's a snowflake in hell's chance that back in the EU, tail between its legs, the country is going to start then.

Re your line about the EU being interested in mutual accordance and concordance.... that sounds suspiciously like political speak for everyone just doing what they are told and falling into line.

Sent from my SM-G610F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

Seriously, you are quite wrong about that. Concurrence is the key word. I do think now is a great time to negotiate remain. Just talk turkey with them.

[tebee]

8 minutes ago, rixalex said:

Negotiating doesn't have to be aggressive but it does have to be assertive otherwise you end up with nothing, as has been ably demonstrated by this government.

If the country isn't able to assert itself with the backing of the mandate of a public vote behind it, there's a snowflake in hell's chance that back in the EU, tail between its legs, the country is going to start then.

......
 

But rule one for going into negotiations is to know what you want out of those negotiations. Rule two is to know what what you are willing to concede to get what you want.

 

The public vote did not give any indication of how we should leave the EU and what status we should aim for afterwards.

 

We didn't stop to decide this first, therefore the effort that should have gone into negotiating with the EU   all went into negotiations with ourselves.  TM apparently decided that Ending FOM without wrecking the economy  was the goal  and came back with probably the best deal she could with those objectives. 

 

But, it's become perfectly obvious that only a few share this vision of leave. We are now having the discussions about this that we should have had before we invoked art 50 or better still before we had the referendum.  

[talahtnut]

2 minutes ago, Grouse said:

Do we have enough soldiers for that? 

 

1 for every 800 citizens?

Dont forget Dads Army, I'd sign up for that, and I think

many would.

[Grouse]

18 minutes ago, talahtnut said:

Dont forget Dads Army, I'd sign up for that, and I think

many would.

The officers will be pro remain and pro HoL ????

[owl sees all]

19 minutes ago, talahtnut said:

Dont forget Dads Army, I'd sign up for that, and I think

many would.

I'd go back to the UK to sign up too.

 

If we can't show the world what FREEDOM means we might just as well go belly up.

[melvinmelvin]

1 hour ago, Grouse said:

Our parliament is no longer fit for purpose. An absolute monarchy would be better right now...

that is pretty much what you have in UK,

not absolute monarchy, but informed one man's rule

 

your parliament is pretty far from being sovereign, far far

 

the monarch's council runs whatever is important - pretty much disregarding parliament

 

UK's ways of managing 60 mill people and their lands is best left outside of EU

EU is bad enough as it is, more authoritarian rule is hardly required'

 

 

 

 

[vogie]

4 minutes ago, owl sees all said:

I'd go back to the UK to sign up too.

 

If we can't show the world what FREEDOM means we might just as well go belly up.

Do you realise REME is in FREEDOM.

[rixalex]

Seriously, you are quite wrong about that. Concurrence is the key word. I do think now is a great time to negotiate remain. Just talk turkey with them.

You are having a laugh if you think deciding to remain would be a negotiation. They would tell us the terms and that would be that. As I say, what will the EU have to fear from us?

If we say, "ah, excuse me Mr EU President, don't mean to be rude but would you mind awfully if we change the odd detail of our membership?", what's he going to say?, "Why's that, are you thinking of leaving?" Cue him rolling around hysterically on the floor.

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[owl sees all]

12 minutes ago, vogie said:

Do you realise REME is in FREEDOM.

Yes it is vogie; thanks for that.

 

I served in the REME (Royal Electrical and Mechanical Engineers). I would go back if they needed me at a moment's notice.

 

Send a couple of warships down to Gibralter. Show the eurocrats that we mean business. Trump would back us.