Extreme Brexit could be worse than financial crisis for UK: BoE

[nontabury]

4 hours ago, SheungWan said:

From nanny to taxidriver. 

What an intelligent post. All of four words. You are exceeding yourself.

[Jack100]

Looking like Mark might keep his job a bit longer ..................

[My Thai Life]

Actually a WTO Brexit is likely to be worse for the EU than the UK.

 

For nearly 4 years the ECB (European Central Bank) has bought up all the Italian government debt issuance (Italian government bonds) via the QE programme (Quantitative Easing). The ECB is finally terminating this QE programme this month, but Italy still needs finance of course. Interest rates are -0.4%. Inflation is stalled at 1% (modest inflation in excess of 1% being a good thing in this context). The EU's Stability Pact and and  Fiscal Compact prevent Keynesian stimulus policies.

 

The so called "doom loop" between Eurozone banks and governments/countries is now a real possibility and there is no buffer left for these financial shocks.

 

Brexit is potentially another such shock for the Eurozone: the EU's 92 billion trade surplus with the UK will be seriously impacted if the EU imposes a punitive Brexit. The kind of of Brexit that Macron is urging while his country burns.

 

On the other hand, Carney's stress tests have verified the UK banking sector's ability to withstand the harshest of shocks.

[Guest]

There are about 10% of the UK populus, who probably also believe that the Earth is flat and vaccinations cause autism, who still think brexit is wonderful and make Britain great again.

 

Each free society have those 10% of people. In free societies those people are allowed to raise their voices and naturally there are people who follow them. Not the most individuals nor the most smartest ones.

 

 

[i claudius]

There are about 10% of the UK populus, who probably also believe that the Earth is flat and vaccinations cause autism, who still think brexit is wonderful and make Britain great again.
 
Each free society have those 10% of people. In free societies those people are allowed to raise their voices and naturally there are people who follow them. Not the most individuals nor the most smartest ones.
 
 

Jesus wept,i cant believe there are still people like you around ,posting on here i dont know how you can say things like that .of course the earth is flat.!!!

Sent from my SM-A720F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[mommysboy]

Would a no deal Brexit be so bad?  Yes, if disorderly, or to the extent that planes couldn't fly, etc.  Otherwise, I think its damaging effects have been over-played.  After a short shock it may even prove beneficial.  My guess is there would be a recession lasting a year or so.

 

One danger though: if significant parties are so wedded to the idea that it will be bad, that very idea actually guarantees it will be bad, aka, self fulfilling prophecy.

Edited December 13, 2018 by mommysboy

[mommysboy]

I suppose if we didn't have Brexit to worry about, we'd be in the same boat as France, and the politicians would then have something to really worry about, dealing with such pressing issues as a failed economic model, and truly grotesque inequality of wealth.  Brexit provides those two most sought after strategies: ignoring the elephant in the room, and kicking the can.  Perhaps that's why all our politicians are hardly busting a gut to find a solution, even though they convey the idea of frenzied activity.

[baboon]

36 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

Would a no deal Brexit be so bad?  Yes, if disorderly, or to the extent that planes couldn't fly, etc.  Otherwise, I think its damaging effects have been over-played.  After a short shock it may even prove beneficial.  My guess is there would be a recession lasting a year or so.

 

One danger though: if significant parties are so wedded to the idea that it will be bad, that very idea actually guarantees it will be bad, aka, self fulfilling prophecy.

Tell you what, why don't you literally bet your house on the outcome?

It may indeed not be so bad, but what are your invaluable personal goods you are prepared to wager on your being correct? These are the stakes being gambled, not 200 Baht in a card game with your pals...

[samran]

On 12/12/2018 at 3:48 PM, My Thai Life said:

Some interesting points abour WTO terms:

 

- WTO is just the starting point, not the end-point

- WTO is just free trade, actually the free-est of free tade

- most of the world operates on WTO rules

- WTO rules would allow us to operate with frictionless zero tariff imports from the EU in key sectors if we chose to

- WTO rules would allow us to reduce costs of imports in key sectors, notably food

- following on from the previous point: we currently pay a huge amount to import food from the EU - in the form of CAP subsidies, these disappear with WTO (tariffs always need to be considered together with subsidies, quotas and non-tariff barriers)

- WTO does not require a hard border in Ireland, and renders the backstop discussion irrelevant

- WTO allows the 39 billion to be used at home

- WTO is available now - this is an important point - one thing we can all agree on is that much of the last 2 years has been wasted - WTO would bring that to an immediate end

- WTO would put the UK in a much stronger negotiating position for future EU talks

- currently the UK trades with 24 countries and territories under WTO rules alone. 

- currently the UK sends to the EU 80% of the tariffs on imports from 3^rd countries, with WTO we keep 100% of the tariffs collected.

What tosh...

 

WTO rules are the lowest common denominator of trade rules that have to be reached by consensus of its 160+ members. It is hardly a free trade organisation. 

 

All that it guarantees is that you can’t discriminate against other members.

 

So if a country like Thailand wants to impose 200%++ import tariffs on British auto exports, they can, just as long as they do the same for everyone else. 

 

Soft border with Ireland and the EU? Fine then. But you will then have to offer the same thing to every other WTO member..

 

And this happens across the board.

 

https://www.economist.com/britain/2017/11/30/brexiteers-claim-that-trade-on-wto-terms-would-be-fine-wrong

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 14, 2018 by samran

[talahtnut]

9 hours ago, samran said:

What tosh...

 

WTO rules are the lowest common denominator of trade rules that have to be reached by consensus of its 160+ members. It is hardly a free trade organisation. 

 

All that it guarantees is that you can’t discriminate against other members.

 

So if a country like Thailand wants to impose 200%++ import tariffs on British auto exports, they can, just as long as they do the same for everyone else. 

 

Soft border with Ireland and the EU? Fine then. But you will then have to offer the same thing to every other WTO member..

 

And this happens across the board.

 

https://www.economist.com/britain/2017/11/30/brexiteers-claim-that-trade-on-wto-terms-would-be-fine-wrong

 

 

 

 

 

The Economist, like many UK fish wraps, is in collaboration with

the UK government.

Can't remainers see what the EU is doing to Italy, Greece, Spain

France, Hungary, and the Mafia style treatment of May and the UK?

Can' remainers see that the EU is a neo-liberal, non democratic

globalist idiology.

When enough people are hungry the EU project will crumble, the

cracks are now appearing.

I hope we are out before they ban Christmas and this song:

 

 

 

[evadgib]

20 hours ago, talahtnut said:

Can't remainers see what the EU is doing to Italy, Greece, Spain

France, Hungary, and the Mafia style treatment of May and the UK?

Now that you mention it...

 

[Jack100]

6 hours ago, evadgib said:

Now that you mention it...

 

Strangely , Pat  I never really felt the effects of the undermining of liberal democracy , the blocking of political change by the  unelected EU etc etc  as you state  you  I However I have recently  definitely felt the " pound in my pocket ' being blocked !

[bristolboy]

7 hours ago, evadgib said:

Now that you mention it...

 

Is Condell confusing Hungary with a liberal democracy? And he complains about the EU restricting freedom?

[3NUMBAS]

all will be fine come brexit day when we dump the eu bully boys and get back to making making pots of money as it was in the days before we joined the eu slow boat to nowhere .courtesy of the gay yachtsman and blair

[evadgib]

 

[talahtnut]

Dear Remainers, could you advise Macron on how

to pay for his promises to the French people.

Macron's options.

1 Raise tax on diesel.

2 Disobey EU budgetary restrictions.

For a Brexiteer the answer is simple..the finger.

[billd766]

On 12/14/2018 at 5:40 PM, talahtnut said:

The Economist, like many UK fish wraps, is in collaboration with

the UK government.

Can't remainers see what the EU is doing to Italy, Greece, Spain

France, Hungary, and the Mafia style treatment of May and the UK?

Can' remainers see that the EU is a neo-liberal, non democratic

globalist idiology.

When enough people are hungry the EU project will crumble, the

cracks are now appearing.

I hope we are out before they ban Christmas and this song:

 

 

 

I have always enjoyed that piece though nowadays it is probably not a PC thing to do. To those who may think it not PC, I have one thing to say.

 

Who really cares what you think about it.

[bristolboy]

5 minutes ago, billd766 said:

I have always enjoyed that piece though nowadays it is probably not a PC thing to do. To those who may think it not PC, I have one thing to say.

 

Who really cares what you think about it.

What is the EU doing to France? And whatever the EU is doing to that vicious right wing authoritian free press strangling government of Hungary isn't nearly enough.

[welovesundaysatspace]

8 hours ago, evadgib said:

Now that you mention it...

 

And let’s not forget Hitler. He was elected by how many? And what did the unelected alliance of England, France, Russia and America undermine the Reich’s democracy? Those bullies. 

[evadgib]

2 minutes ago, welovesundaysatspace said:

And let’s not forget Hitler. He was elected by how many? And what did the unelected alliance of England, France, Russia and America undermine the Reich’s democracy? Those bullies. 

Piano wire springs to mind if this proves to be true..

 

[evadgib]

Back to the BoE:

 

[nontabury]

2 hours ago, bristolboy said:

Is Condell confusing Hungary with a liberal democracy? And he complains about the EU restricting freedom?

 

 

     You had better have a word with this guy.

 

 

 Could it be the same Guy Verhofstadt. That you so admire

Edited December 15, 2018 by nontabury

[mommysboy]

On 12/13/2018 at 11:19 PM, baboon said:

Tell you what, why don't you literally bet your house on the outcome?

It may indeed not be so bad, but what are your invaluable personal goods you are prepared to wager on your being correct? These are the stakes being gambled, not 200 Baht in a card game with your pals...

I have skin in the game already believe me. If it goes belly up, I'll be retiring on a pittance of a pension. 

 

Whatever the exit, it's about organisation, and co-operation.  There's no reason why it wouldn't work, and we have to gamble anyway it seems.  What would your choice be?

 

Given the choice, I would not gamble and would rather Brexit was put on ice.  But Leave won and that needs to be respected too.

[evadgib]

26 minutes ago, nontabury said:

 

 

     You had better have a word with this guy.

 

 

 Could it be the same Guy Verhofstadt. That you so admire

Nasty creep with an ill fitting syrup.

[baboon]

8 hours ago, mommysboy said:

I have skin in the game already believe me. If it goes belly up, I'll be retiring on a pittance of a pension. 

 

Whatever the exit, it's about organisation, and co-operation.  There's no reason why it wouldn't work, and we have to gamble anyway it seems.  What would your choice be?

 

Given the choice, I would not gamble and would rather Brexit was put on ice.  But Leave won and that needs to be respected too.

I think we are broadly singing from the same hymnsheet. Yes, I think we should either revoke Article 50 until we get our act together or go with May's deal.

[talahtnut]

8 hours ago, mommysboy said:

I have skin in the game already believe me. If it goes belly up, I'll be retiring on a pittance of a pension. 

 

Whatever the exit, it's about organisation, and co-operation.  There's no reason why it wouldn't work, and we have to gamble anyway it seems.  What would your choice be?

 

Given the choice, I would not gamble and would rather Brexit was put on ice.  But Leave won and that needs to be respected too.

That's a well balanced comment. I'm on a crap UK

unfortunate survival pension already. However, there

is no need to gamble, just try living in Paris, for a year.

Leastways, you can get nice cheap syrups over there.

 

 

 

[RickBradford]

[rixalex]

40 minutes ago, baboon said:

I think we are broadly singing from the same hymnsheet. Yes, I think we should either revoke Article 50 until we get our act together or go with May's deal.

Mommysboy said he thought the vote needed to be respected. Sadly he's one of the few remainers with the integrity on this forum to take that view.

 

Neither revoking of article 50 "until we can get our act together" (read, "leaving the EU ain't never going to happen") or going with May's current deal, does respect the vote.

[owl sees all]

53 minutes ago, RickBradford said:

This is just trying to scare TVForum members.

 

I say get the warships in the Med and assert our authority. Send a few shivers down the spins of the unelected EU bullies. The US would help us in this. Payback for Libya and Iraq.

Edited December 16, 2018 by owl sees all
changed Labia into Libya

[baboon]

1 hour ago, rixalex said:

Mommysboy said he thought the vote needed to be respected. Sadly he's one of the few remainers with the integrity on this forum to take that view.

 

Neither revoking of article 50 "until we can get our act together" (read, "leaving the EU ain't never going to happen") or going with May's current deal, does respect the vote.

I would disagree. The vote was 52 - 48. You can't trample on the wishes of either side, so where do you go from here? You compromise.