Extreme Brexit could be worse than financial crisis for UK: BoE

[Grouse]

This is a post copied from Bremain in Spain, which I think is absolutely spot on!!! 

A few words from my friend Jennifer Maidman, sadly she sums up how I, and I am sure many of you reading this feel-

Unless there is a last minute reprieve, on March 29th 2019, 65 million residents of the UK including me, will have their European citizenship revoked, a direct consequence of the actions of the British government. We will lose forever the right, which many were born with, to live and work throughout Europe. I will become a foreigner throughout most of what I consider to be my homeland, where I've spent much of my working life. I am furious at the cowardly, self serving actions of politicans on all sides of the issue, many of whom have pandered to ignorance and prejudice throughout this debacle, and I am in a state of grief. I'm heartbroken in fact. Our rights, identity and livelihood are being stolen, in pursuit of some deluded post-imperial fascistic pipe dream. How is the impact of this on individuals being largely ignored by the media? Surely this is one of the worst attacks on democratic rights we've ever seen?

[Grouse]

6 minutes ago, vogie said:

It seems more of a capitulation than a compromise, to me anyway. There should be no versions of brexit, brexit means leaving the EU, what we end up with is anyones guess. It would be nice to get a deal that is amicable to both parties, but that does seem very difficult to imagine at this late stage. But maybe the EU wants to make us suffer and in the process themselves to boot.

Capitulation to whom?

 

Why do military types look at everything as a battle to be won? That sort of thinking is so passé. Win win is what we need.

[Grouse]

2 minutes ago, Grouse said:

Capitulation to whom?

 

Why do military types look at everything as a battle to be won? That sort of thinking is so passé. Win win is what we need.

May be we need a "Fresh Start" - Joan Jett's latest song. 

 

Play loud!

 

 

[talahtnut]

5 minutes ago, Grouse said:

Capitulation to whom?

 

Why do military types look at everything as a battle to be won? That sort of thinking is so passé. Win win is what we need.

Is this is what you would like to win Grouse?

Police teargas protesters in Paris as unions rally over minimum wage

[Grouse]

5 minutes ago, talahtnut said:

Is this is what you would like to win Grouse?

Police teargas protesters in Paris as unions rally over minimum wage

Yes

 

The Gilet Jaune are targeting their own government who are responsible for setting their minimum wage

 

That's what we should be doing

 

The EU is the WRONG TARGET.

 

Brexit it will further enable our own government to make thinks worse, particularly inequality.

 

Amazing the penny hasn't dropped for Brexiters! How subtle a clue do they need? A sledgehammer?

[vogie]

3 minutes ago, Grouse said:

Capitulation to whom?

 

Why do military types look at everything as a battle to be won? That sort of thinking is so passé. Win win is what we need.

But your compromise is just that, it is a compromise that suits you, am I the only one that thinks your idea of a Norway deal is the worst of all worlds. We would be tied to the EU and still have the pleasure of paying for it.

It not a case of battles to be won, it's a case of not being subservient to another nation/nations, is it wrong to want to make our rules and make decisions for ourselves. 

And FYI it is not just the "military types" that think this, I cannot remember Boris Johnson ever serving with the Kings Own Yorkshire Light Infantry. I'm sure you have many ex service personel that are classed as remainers on your 'side' too.

[welovesundaysatspace]

42 minutes ago, talahtnut said:

Is this is what you would like to win Grouse?

Police teargas protesters in Paris as unions rally over minimum wage

I rather have police firing teargas than intelligence services hacking internet cables and spying on me and everyone. 

[rixalex]

1 hour ago, Grouse said:

It's a compromise and literally means we leave the EU. If you want a particular version of Brexit, vote on it.

 

If you don't like accepting rules with no input, stay. Or negotiate a new CU deal. Everything is possible.

No, it doesn't mean we literally leave, it means we leave in name only, as yourself have admitted, and it is a complete waste of time as it puts us in a worse situation than staying in.

 

If you really cared about the future of Britain, and not just yourself, you would be arguing against this worst of all worlds option, and arguing either for either a complete break from the EU, in which the possible opportunities from Brexit can be realised, or arguing in favour of somehow overturning the 2016 vote and staying in, as anti-democratic as that position is.

 

The "compromise" position you are arguing for is nothing more than a shameless attempt to be able to disingenuously say you are respecting the wishes of those who voted leave, whilst still retaining those precious reciprocal rights that make your plan of retiring in the EU that much simpler.

 

I wager that almost any deal that maintains reciprocal rights would get your approval. Prove me wrong and show how willing you are to compromise, by declaring you would support a deal that didn't.

[evadgib]

1 hour ago, Grouse said:

This is a post copied from Bremain in Spain, which I think is absolutely spot on!!! 

A few words from my friend Jennifer Maidman, sadly she sums up how I, and I am sure many of you reading this feel-

Unless there is a last minute reprieve, on March 29th 2019, 65 million residents of the UK including me, will have their European citizenship revoked, a direct consequence of the actions of the British government. We will lose forever the right, which many were born with, to live and work throughout Europe. I will become a foreigner throughout most of what I consider to be my homeland, where I've spent much of my working life. I am furious at the cowardly, self serving actions of politicans on all sides of the issue, many of whom have pandered to ignorance and prejudice throughout this debacle, and I am in a state of grief. I'm heartbroken in fact. Our rights, identity and livelihood are being stolen, in pursuit of some deluded post-imperial fascistic pipe dream. How is the impact of this on individuals being largely ignored by the media? Surely this is one of the worst attacks on democratic rights we've ever seen?

They (Brits in EU aka the 'alright jack' club) are surprisingly mute re the plight of Brits in the RotW whose pensions are currently frozen. It'll be interesting to see how HMG addresses that.

[evadgib]

I hope my own side forgive me for posting this ????

 

[talahtnut]

47 minutes ago, Grouse said:

Yes

 

The Gilet Jaune are targeting their own government who are responsible for setting their minimum wage

 

That's what we should be doing

 

The EU is the WRONG TARGET.

 

Brexit it will further enable our own government to make thinks worse, particularly inequality.

 

Amazing the penny hasn't dropped for Brexiters! How subtle a clue do they need? A sledgehammer?

The EU controls the French government budget.

Is that subtle for you?

I think you've lost your penny some time ago Grouse.

[billd766]

12 hours ago, sanemax said:

I would say "Yes" it would , reason being that trade deal negotiations are still underway and the outcome is currently unknown , if the deciding factor regarding Nissan was the UK/EU trade agreement , Nissan would have waiting a few more weeks until the deal/no deal was announced .

   Its quite clear that diesel cars in Europe are a thing of the past , they will probably be completely banned in Europe within 20 or so years  , it wouldn't make sense to built a new factory to produce diesel cars and Nissan themselves will stop producing new diesel model cars within a few years .

  This is the beginning of the end of diesel cars in Europe and it wouldn't make sense to build a new factory to make those cars

Too much common sense in your post for Remainers to understand.

[Laughing Gravy]

17 minutes ago, billd766 said:

Too much common sense in your post for Remainers to understand.

It would seem the National Institute of Economic and Social Research. don't agree that there will be a financial meltdown with brexit. For those that don't have the Times subscription

 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/brexit-won-t-send-uk-into-recession-6ptg0nkdh

 

Britain will avoid recession in a no-deal Brexit as the government launches a £40 billion emergency stimulus package and the Bank of England ignores surging inflation to keep interest rates on hold, according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

The think tank said policymakers would respond to a no deal with tax cuts and welfare spending amounting to around 2 per cent of GDP, blowing a fresh hole in the budget deficit. Even if no action is taken recession will be averted, although the economy will stagnate with growth just above zero for two years.

 

The scenarios were set out in the institute’s quarterly forecast, in which it downgraded UK growth sharply for next year and warned that the chancellor would break his fiscal rules regardless of Brexit. Student loans, the promise to end austerity and weak economic growth will force Philip Hammond to jettison his deficit reduction plan even in a soft Brexit, it claimed.

 

The outlook came amid signs that the economy is stalling. The all-sector purchasing managers’ index slumped to its second-lowest level in six years as the dominant services sector almost ground to halt last month. The pound fell 0.94 cents to $1.294 after the release.

 

The institute downgraded growth for next year to 1.5 per cent from 1.9 per cent, arguing that political uncertainty would weigh on business investment for another year whether or not a Brexit deal was agreed. “Brexit-related uncertainty has intensified and global growth has slowed,” it said. Growth will pick up to 1.7 per cent in 2020, it predicted.

 

Hopes that the economy would rebalance from consumption to trade after a cheaper pound made British exports more competitive have not played out. Instead, growth will continue to be driven by domestic demand. Business investment will not recover “until the political declaration is settled”, Amit Kara, head of UK macroeconomics at the institute, added. He does not expect the “cloud of uncertainty” to lift for “at least a year”.

Even under a benign Brexit “the government will miss its fiscal mandate” for structural borrowing to be below 2 per cent of GDP in 2021. “We think spending will need to rise further to deal with austerity fatigue,” Mr Kara said.

 

On top of the extra spending, a new accounting treatment for student loans that comes into force next year will add £12 billion to borrowing, all but wiping the chancellor’s £15 billion fiscal headroom. “There is an odds-on chance the government will miss its fiscal mandate,” Mr Kara said. “The spring statement in mid-March might be an occasion to revisit the fiscal rules.”

The institute’s no-deal forecast was less severe than the 8 per cent contraction modelled by the Bank under its worst-case scenario. It expects the Bank to ignore surging inflation and keep rates at 0.75 per cent while “the government injects stimulus of around 2 per cent of GDP through additional welfare transfers and tax cuts”, equivalent to £40 billion. That would leave borrowing at 4 per cent of GDP in 2023-24, £60 billion higher than current forecasts.

[tomacht8]

27 minutes ago, talahtnut said:

The EU controls the French government budget.

Is that subtle for you?

I think you've lost your penny some time ago Grouse.

You are trolling?

Or do you really know nothing about the state budgets.

In the latter case you should refrain from further postings on this topic.

[tebee]

On 1/6/2019 at 6:32 AM, talahtnut said:

The subconscious desperately needs repetition for

ideas and concepts to stick. UK and EU media are

repeating 'remain' programming in bucket loads

every day. The Matrix is real.. run by the dark 

overlord billionaire gang prepared to gamble

billions on a short sell.

 

Na, it's more the phantom menace

 

 

[melvinmelvin]

2 hours ago, Grouse said:

This is a post copied from Bremain in Spain, which I think is absolutely spot on!!! 

A few words from my friend Jennifer Maidman, sadly she sums up how I, and I am sure many of you reading this feel-

Unless there is a last minute reprieve, on March 29th 2019, 65 million residents of the UK including me, will have their European citizenship revoked, a direct consequence of the actions of the British government. We will lose forever the right, which many were born with, to live and work throughout Europe. I will become a foreigner throughout most of what I consider to be my homeland, where I've spent much of my working life. I am furious at the cowardly, self serving actions of politicans on all sides of the issue, many of whom have pandered to ignorance and prejudice throughout this debacle, and I am in a state of grief. I'm heartbroken in fact. Our rights, identity and livelihood are being stolen, in pursuit of some deluded post-imperial fascistic pipe dream. How is the impact of this on individuals being largely ignored by the media? Surely this is one of the worst attacks on democratic rights we've ever seen?

partly true, OK

rather melodramatic though

 

don't blame UK government, blame UK parliament - the real culprit in this omni mess

 

[talahtnut]

28 minutes ago, tomacht8 said:

You are trolling?

Or do you really know nothing about the state budgets.

In the latter case you should refrain from further postings on this topic.

It would appear that it is you that is trolling.

in which case you should take your own advice.

Bonds News

November 19, 2011 / 1:46 AM / 7 years ago

EU exec to propose tough euro zone budgets control.

[Grouse]

Lest we forget where British power originated

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p06ycszn

 

Read how Arkwright got his Labour by building good housing

 

Recommended! ????

[Grouse]

1 hour ago, vogie said:

But your compromise is just that, it is a compromise that suits you, am I the only one that thinks your idea of a Norway deal is the worst of all worlds. We would be tied to the EU and still have the pleasure of paying for it.

It not a case of battles to be won, it's a case of not being subservient to another nation/nations, is it wrong to want to make our rules and make decisions for ourselves. 

And FYI it is not just the "military types" that think this, I cannot remember Boris Johnson ever serving with the Kings Own Yorkshire Light Infantry. I'm sure you have many ex service personel that are classed as remainers on your 'side' too.

These are all fair points.

 

I would refer to remain in a CU so that we get involved in decision making

 

All kinds of people support Brexit. But I have noticed that those with some military connection seem to view the negotiations as a battle. Is and them. Who's the winner; who's the loser? Who is punishing whom and why. I just don't see it like that. It's not a zero sum game. Smart people would derive a solution that benefits all!

 

Now the ERG bastards are another case. To a man you can see their glee at potential riches from relaxed standards and conditions. Only mugs would fall for that.

 

I have recently spoken to retired officers in The British  Club. Mixed bag; all good chaps with reasoned views.

[Loiner]

Corbyn will at the very least get a majority to form a govt....

Corbyn has no chance now. The whole Brexit discussion has finally opened up the eyes of many previous Labour stalwarts. They can see the Liebour party for what is has become over the past 40 years or so. There will be more of those voters who swing to UKIP or a new party.

He’s always been a EUrosceptic but couldn’t admit it while playing party politics. His EU Frankenstein speech is out now:
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1082666/brexit-news-EU-jeremy-corbyn-labour-video


Sent from my iPhone using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[tomacht8]

22 minutes ago, talahtnut said:

It would appear that it is you that is trolling.

in which case you should take your own advice.

Bonds News

November 19, 2011 / 1:46 AM / 7 years ago

EU exec to propose tough euro zone budgets 

lol

Your link leads to the general Reuters page with zero reference and a 7 year old headline from a discussion paper.

How is the weather in moscow?

[bristolboy]

1 hour ago, talahtnut said:

The EU controls the French government budget.

Is that subtle for you?

I think you've lost your penny some time ago Grouse.

The only way the EU controls the French budget or the budget of any Eurozone member is by limiting deficits. That's it. That's a Euro problem. But the EU does not decide how money in the French budget is to be appropriated apart from whatever payments France must make to the EU. Which is a very small fraction of its total budget.

 

[talahtnut]

4 minutes ago, tomacht8 said:

lol

Your link leads to the general Reuters page with zero reference and a 7 year old headline from a discussion paper.

How is the weather in moscow?

Of course its 7 years ago, those proposals are now in place.

Do your own research before you troll nonsense.

 

[Grouse]

2 hours ago, evadgib said:

They (Brits in EU aka the 'alright jack' club) are surprisingly mute re the plight of Brits in the RotW whose pensions are currently frozen. It'll be interesting to see how HMG addresses that.

That quote was from a friend of my sister who lives in Aragon. They think the frozen pensions issue is appalling 

 

which other EU countries freeze their pensions? I'll revert.

 

Looks to me that only UK freezes pensions

 

Thailand pensioners worst hit by collapse of Sterling - 15%

 

I can get a pension in Denmark from 65 1/2.

 

This issue is down to UK government. No problem elsewhere in EU. Also UK pensions are crap.

 

Edited February 6, 2019 by Grouse

[talahtnut]

15 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

The only way the EU controls the French budget or the budget of any Eurozone member is by limiting deficits. That's it. That's a Euro problem. But the EU does not decide how money in the French budget is to be appropriated apart from whatever payments France must make to the EU. Which is a very small fraction of its total budget.

 

Agreed, but its enough to limit Macrons room for manoeuver.

[tomacht8]

2 hours ago, talahtnut said:

The EU controls the French government budget.

Is that subtle for you?

I think you've lost your penny some time ago Grouse.

The two elements of the common economic policy - also known as "two pack" in the EU jargon - are concerned with intensified monitoring of budgetary plans. The euro states must submit their budget plans annually, before 15 October, to the European Commission and the Eurogroup in Brussels. In the event of economic misfortunes, Brussels may demand changes such as further austerity measures. This should prevent crises such as in Greece in the future.

 

This is the control mechanism that all member states have agreed to.

 

Every EU country has its own sovereignty over how they want to spend their money.

 

Your attempt to suggest that the EU can decide on France's budget is wrong and deliberately misleading.

[evadgib]

20 minutes ago, Grouse said:

which other EU countries freeze their pensions? I'll revert.

AFAIA UK is alone & I think that goes for loss of vote after 15 years abroad too.

[Grouse]

2 hours ago, talahtnut said:

The EU controls the French government budget.

Is that subtle for you?

I think you've lost your penny some time ago Grouse.

How does it do that except for limiting deficits? Fiscal policy is down to the French

[bomber]

3 hours ago, talahtnut said:

Is this is what you would like to win Grouse?

Police teargas protesters in Paris as unions rally over minimum wage

french protests and strike's,they happen on weekly basis even in the best of times.

[Grouse]

1 hour ago, melvinmelvin said:

partly true, OK

rather melodramatic though

 

don't blame UK government, blame UK parliament - the real culprit in this omni mess

 

Just the view of a British Woman retired to Spain.

 

What happens to your Swedish pension on retirement in Thailand? Does it become frozen?