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Britons would now vote to stay in EU, want second referendum: poll


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2 hours ago, tomacht8 said:

Only two thoughts:
1. The UK is not a resource rich land (mineral resources).
If a producer then has to shop globally with a weak Pound for production materials, that will increase the cost per part.
2. If the sales market builds additional barriers, - and the EU protects itself against e.g. cheap products from China -, a mass producer (here the big food companies, car, pharmacy or chemistry) - price technology can not keep up.
As for the producers in the UK in particular: Whether Airbus, a car manufacturer or who always wants to sell physical products in the EU will be charged with additional quotas and duties. Furthermore, the administrative burden in the European Economic Area is increasing.
Again, there are price increase effects. If the UK believes that all products can then be sold at manufacturing cost, aka no profit for the market players, that certainly does not help the producing UK substance.

Fair points, but all what ifs and maybes. As I keep saying, there are too many moving parts and unknowns to predict what will happen. 

 

What if we stayed in the EU and they continued on their course for ever closer union, including tax harmonisation, defence policy and who knows what else. What if the EU becomes a full on US of E, and it becomes impossible for the UK to leave (it's already difficult enough to leave!)? What if those EU member states teetering on the brink of bankruptcy bring down the EU and leave us all poorer, and even further behind emerging Asia?

 

What ifs...

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Many thanks to our sovereign Parliament for bringing Remain to bear in the final analysis. Whose remoaning now.......fingers crossed we are nearly there now.  2 million dead since the last vote and two million youngsters have come of voting age. It's not about winning the battle but winning the war. #whatareyougoingtodoaboutit.......

To the remainer family on here you must be like that embarrassing uncle who comes over on Christmas day

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11 minutes ago, oilinki said:

Yeah Project Fear from Remoaners from the intellectual low-ground of the Brexiteers. 

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1 minute ago, CG1 Blue said:

You do realise that EY make millions from the EU institutions? And that the banks surveyed are doing all they can to paint the worst possible picture of Brexit? I know this because I worked at one of those huge investment banks until Oct 2018. We had a Brexit planning team who were bent on getting remain propaganda out to all the biggest clients at every opportunity. 

As you'll see from the link further down in your article, the actual job moves to Paris and Frankfurt are minimal. 

The temporary moving of assets is only natural in times of uncertainty. The same happened in 2008 when hedge funds moved all their assets to the safe European banks away from Morgan Stanley, Goldmans etc. Once things settled down the assets all went back to the big players. London is and always will be the big player in Europe's financial markets. 

 

 

I find it very hard to believe that

 

7 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

You do realise that EY make millions from the EU institutions? And that the banks surveyed are doing all they can to paint the worst possible picture of Brexit? I know this because I worked at one of those huge investment banks until Oct 2018. We had a Brexit planning team who were bent on getting remain propaganda out to all the biggest clients at every opportunity. 

As you'll see from the link further down in your article, the actual job moves to Paris and Frankfurt are minimal. 

The temporary moving of assets is only natural in times of uncertainty. The same happened in 2008 when hedge funds moved all their assets to the safe European banks away from Morgan Stanley, Goldmans etc. Once things settled down the assets all went back to the big players. London is and always will be the big player in Europe's financial markets. 

 

 

"As you'll see from the link further down in your article, the actual job moves to Paris and Frankfurt are minimal." 

Here's a quote from that article:

"The current estimates are for the number of employees the banks need to staff their new EU bases on day one of Brexit. In the months and years following, the number may well return to the earlier forecasts, depending on the trade deal the U.K. ultimately agrees on with the EU."

 

So, what do you think the upshot will be if there is no trade deal?

 

"The temporary moving of assets is only natural in times of uncertainty. The same happened in 2008 when hedge funds moved all their assets to the safe European banks away from Morgan Stanley, Goldmans etc. Once things settled down the assets all went back to the big players. London is and always will be the big player in Europe's financial markets."

But, of course, the situations aren't at all comparable for a few reasons. First of all,  a very big reason that capital returned to US banks was not because "things settled down" but because it turned out that European banks and other financial institutions were in even worse shape than the American ones.

And second, the structure of the financial meltdown as compared to Brexit is very different. The status quo was more or less restored in the USA because US banks were on the same footing in relation to the rest of the financial world as they were before the meltdown. But if a hard Brexit occurs, this absolutely will not be the case for banks in the UK. Their access to EU markets will be restricted. It seems inevitable that passporting rights will be lost and even "equivalency" is far from guaranteed.

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33 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

You do realise that EY make millions from the EU institutions? And that the banks surveyed are doing all they can to paint the worst possible picture of Brexit? I know this because I worked at one of those huge investment banks until Oct 2018. We had a Brexit planning team who were bent on getting remain propaganda out to all the biggest clients at every opportunity. 

As you'll see from the link further down in your article, the actual job moves to Paris and Frankfurt are minimal. 

The temporary moving of assets is only natural in times of uncertainty. The same happened in 2008 when hedge funds moved all their assets to the safe European banks away from Morgan Stanley, Goldmans etc. Once things settled down the assets all went back to the big players. London is and always will be the big player in Europe's financial markets.

London financial markets are oversized for a domestic market of just the UK (potentially eventually less than what is the current UK)... as such there will have to be adjustments over time to move what will become foreign holdings into domestic EU based institutions based out of the EU.  How fast this happens, how much of an impact over time will be -- we really don't know... but the institutions impacted are not really saying what they are saying because some big conspiracy -- but out of fear of what could be the worst case scenario.

 

The impact tends to be somewhere in-between, but over time there will be considerable impact from losing 87% of the domestic market.  I find the impact though overstated by some, but pretending there will not be significant impact is no different than the overstatement because of fear (or naive).

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2 hours ago, bristolboy said:

I find it very hard to believe that

 

"As you'll see from the link further down in your article, the actual job moves to Paris and Frankfurt are minimal." 

Here's a quote from that article:

"The current estimates are for the number of employees the banks need to staff their new EU bases on day one of Brexit. In the months and years following, the number may well return to the earlier forecasts, depending on the trade deal the U.K. ultimately agrees on with the EU."

 

So, what do you think the upshot will be if there is no trade deal?

 

"The temporary moving of assets is only natural in times of uncertainty. The same happened in 2008 when hedge funds moved all their assets to the safe European banks away from Morgan Stanley, Goldmans etc. Once things settled down the assets all went back to the big players. London is and always will be the big player in Europe's financial markets."

But, of course, the situations aren't at all comparable for a few reasons. First of all,  a very big reason that capital returned to US banks was not because "things settled down" but because it turned out that European banks and other financial institutions were in even worse shape than the American ones.

And second, the structure of the financial meltdown as compared to Brexit is very different. The status quo was more or less restored in the USA because US banks were on the same footing in relation to the rest of the financial world as they were before the meltdown. But if a hard Brexit occurs, this absolutely will not be the case for banks in the UK. Their access to EU markets will be restricted. It seems inevitable that passporting rights will be lost and even "equivalency" is far from guaranteed.

Actually the reason assets moved to the big European banks in 2008 was because of the broker-dealer type structure of the major American players at the time. The Lehman and Bear Stearns models. I was there, working around the clock helping to get the assets over to the Swiss bank I worked at. I had friends at Deutsche Bank doing the same. GS and MS agreed to change their structure to become bank holding companies.  Along with help from TARP and other serious investors, GS got through the crisis. 

Big hedge funds have always preferred to have a US and European prime broker. Once they realised GS and MS were safe again the assets flowed back. 

I repeat, I was there! And I was privy to conversations with the HF CEOs. 

 

The point I'm making is that once order is restored after March 29th - and it will be - most of the assets will come back to London. 

Most of Europe's financial markets money flows through London. It would be catastrophic for Europe if London were to be cut off. Europe won't let that happen. They will find a way! 

 

Paris and Frankfurt may be licking their lips at the moment, but they're only going to get a fraction of the action in the long term. 

 

Of course if I'm wrong we're all doomed... ????

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42 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

???? The government now got three days (308-297) to come up with an alternative plan than no-deal - REPRESENTATIVE DEMOCRACY ain't half sweet for us europhiles.....one could almost have thought this was planned all along .

I am surprised the vote was that close.  The courts gave the UK an out other than full brexit - though it makes bad policy (Article 50 revocation should take unanimous approval) -- since some bad actor could plan to use it as a threat only.  I don't think there are the votes to allow a full no-deal brexit.

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10 hours ago, AlexRich said:

 

I'm happy with the current arrangement ... the amounts are a small percentage of our GDP. We've lost more in economic potential since the vote ... and we'll lose even more with a hard Brexit ... so it's money well spent. If you voted leave you voted for the UK to be poorer ... we'll lose more than we save from membership fees. 

 

It's not about money or exchange rates to those who still live there. It's about being swamped by unwanted people who have been  proven to be detrimental to the British working class society and it was they who came out in their millions on 23rd June 2016 and said so in no uncertain terms.

 

If as I suspect that you live in the LOS your pension income has been affected by thousands of baht a month and that's what your main gripe is. When I change up my money for Thailand I'm sick as a pig as well but my loyalty lies with my people back in the UK and their long term welfare which is steadily going down as the numbers of foreign opportunists arriving in Blighty goes up.

 

Anyone who gets to the EU can eventually get an EU passport and that passport permits them to come to Britain and take advantage of the benefits that are more easily accessible than is the case in other EU member states.

 

That's why so many French speaking Africans and so many Spanish and Portuguese speaking South Americans are now in London. They're not working because they can't speak enough English no one wants to employ them. But that's no problem we supply them with interpreters.

 

Calais and other channel ports are swamped and have been for years by third worlders trying to cross the channel and they haven't even bothered to get EU passports cos once they get to the UK they're usually home and dry.

 

They've obviously not trekked across the continent to better themselves at our expense if they could have done so nearer their place of entry into the EU. This suits the EU fine cos once they are on our island we're stuck with them and the EU is free of them.

 

The French, Belgians, Dutch and Germans don't want 'em any more than Greece, Italy or the UK does. No one admits it but that's why they are hopping mad that we want out and by and considerable majority said so in June '16. You must know ex pats in the LOS from these other EU countries so just ask 'em.

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11 hours ago, melvinmelvin said:

yes,

but jeeez, how can you live a decent life in London with 50 quid/day,

the yogi chap said he was from London

 

 

50 quid is 2000 baht. Retired falangs can live very well in Pattaya on 2000 baht a day and many do. You just can't shag prostitutes every day that's all. Shopping in London if you know where to go is often cheaper than in Thai cities like Pattaya.

 

'The yogi chap' you referred to spends a lot of time in both London and Pattaya.

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26 minutes ago, yogi100 said:

50 quid is 2000 baht. Retired falangs can live very well in Pattaya on 2000 baht a day and many do. You just can't shag prostitutes every day that's all. Shopping in London if you know where to go is often cheaper than in Thai cities like Pattaya.

'The yogi chap' you referred to spends a lot of time in both London and Pattaya.

Some outer zone paradise probably.

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1 hour ago, Loiner said:

 


With such shallow conclusions as this, no wonder you are all regarded as snowflakes.

You have forgotten the two million who have now become tax payers and realised the EU and parliament will only squander their taxes.
It sharpens the mind having your hard-earned taken from you.


Sent from my iPhone using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

 

Personally, I am more concerned about the Tory party's love of offshore bank accounts and those who promote them, and the fact that their unnecessary austerity project has proven to be the biggest legal theft of money from the many to the few in recent history. The true villains reside in Westminster.

 

 

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10 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Many thanks to our sovereign Parliament for bringing Remain to bear in the final analysis. Whose remoaning now.......fingers crossed we are nearly there now.  2 million dead since the last vote and two million youngsters have come of voting age. It's not about winning the battle but winning the war. #whatareyougoingtodoaboutit.......

A very valid point. When those youngsters especially kids just out of school see Eastern Europeans doing jobs that should be theirs they are going to do what many of those who have passed away did. They'll also vote for Brexit. Kids normally develop the same political opinions and views as their parents

 

Even they realise that a nation can't afford to keep 8.6 M economically inactive citizens in clover indefinitely while giving any jobs that become available to foreigner scabs who put next to nothing into the economy and nearly always send most of their earnings out of the country and accordingly out of circulation.

 

Such a situation is unsustainable and is a very major factor in why the economy is in such a state as it is.

 

The confusion along with the scare tactics and underhand  dealings of the financiers opposed to Brexit have made things much worse than they should be.

 

Nothing that you can put your finger on can account for the fact that the GBP has dropped by as much as 30% against many other currencies in the last 2.5 years. There's simply no valid identifiable commercial  reason.

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10 minutes ago, yogi100 said:
47 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

One wonders what the racists and bigots nutter party of choice is these days other than some renamed BNP splinter group or whatnot.

 

Here we go!

 

16 minutes ago, yogi100 said:

Few people are going to pay much attention to what a couple of what look like bearded second generation Muslims have to say. They look like cronies of Jhadi John and like they've just returned from serving ISIS.

 

26 minutes ago, yogi100 said:

foreigner scabs who put next to nothing into the economy and nearly always send most of their earnings out of the country and accordingly out of circulation.

Today's topic for discussion - cognitive dissonance or denialism?

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1 minute ago, RuamRudy said:

Your referring to other working class people as scabs must be music to the ears of the Brexit puppet masters - it is always so much easier to keep the hoi poloi down when they are too busy fighting amongst themselves rather than noticing how they are being truly shafted day after day by those who keep their magic money trees in the Cayman islands. 

 

Throw in your complete lack of understanding about how our economy works and stoke your nascent racism with some complete lies and you are perfect for exploitation. 

 

 

THE FISCAL IMPACT OF IMMIGRATION ON THE UK

"The average European migrant arriving in the UK in 2016 will contribute £78,000 more than they take out in public services and benefits over their time spent in the UK (assuming a balanced national budget), and the average non-European migrant will make a positive net contribution of £28,000 while living here. By comparison, the average UK citizen’s net lifetime contribution in this scenario is zero."

"

 'Scab' is the common term for those who work cheaply and as a consequence cause others to lose their jobs. It's a term that's been in common use for over 100 years.

 

It originated with members of trades unions and the Labour Party. It's now used in exactly the same circumstances ie when referring to those willing to work for less than local people thereby threatening and often destroying their livelihood and ultimately their work ethic. 

 

Explain what lies I've told and what I've said that is 'racist'. These Eastern Europeans look like us, are of the same colour and are of the same 'race'. How can someone possibly be a 'racist' when criticising the consequences of the actions of folk who are of the same race as him or herself.

 

I'm not being facetious, I sincerely and truly want to know how or why it's 'racist'! Please explain why as I really resent being called a 'racist' for no valid reason.

 

You must realise that calling people such names means nothing any more and fails to stifle debate because folk like you have abused it. Like the boy who cried wolf.

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29 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

 

 

Today's topic for discussion - cognitive dissonance or denialism?

Few people are going to discuss something when they don't even know what it is. Try putting your fingers down your throat and spewing up or go to the nearest hospital if you've swallowed a dictionary!

Edited by yogi100
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35 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

Your referring to other working class people as scabs must be music to the ears of the Brexit puppet masters - it is always so much easier to keep the hoi poloi down when they are too busy fighting amongst themselves rather than noticing how they are being truly shafted day after day by those who keep their magic money trees in the Cayman islands. 

 

Throw in your complete lack of understanding about how our economy works and stoke your nascent racism with some complete lies and you are perfect for exploitation. 

 

 

THE FISCAL IMPACT OF IMMIGRATION ON THE UK

"The average European migrant arriving in the UK in 2016 will contribute £78,000 more than they take out in public services and benefits over their time spent in the UK (assuming a balanced national budget), and the average non-European migrant will make a positive net contribution of £28,000 while living here. By comparison, the average UK citizen’s net lifetime contribution in this scenario is zero."

"

THE FISCAL IMPACT OF IMMIGRATION ON THE UK

"The average European migrant arriving in the UK in 2016 will contribute £7,528 less than they take out in public services and benefits over their time spent in the UK (assuming a balanced national budget), and the average non-European migrant will take out in pubic services and benefits £2,445 while living here. By comparison, the average UK citizen’s net lifetime contribution in this scenario is £78,275."

"

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4 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

The fact is that the UK is in its current state of decay not because we were part of the EU, but because we have elected successive Tory and Labour governments who have stolen and pillaged everything that was once great about Great Britain, ensuring the almost non stop transfer of our collective wealth into the hands of a very small pool of people. You have every right to be angry about the state of the country, but your anger is directed at the wrong target. What Brexit is doing is further protecting these parasites and ensuring the continuation of their abuses of you and your descendants - and Brexiteers are their unwitting foot soldiers. 

Bravo! So well and clearly summarised the whole issue.

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2 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

I think you have already made clear your position on people who don't look like you so no need to dwell on this particular little nugget of unpleasantness. 

 

My post included a link and some text from a UK Gov commissioned report which showed that EU migrants are net contributors to the UK economy. The lie that you repeated (it has been told many times already by the likes of the Daily Mail, Daily Express and other tax avoiding sources of propaganda) was thus:

 

but you have ignored it. I am not sure that there is much debate here, when you clearly are not interested in the salient points. 

 

The fact is that the UK is in its current state of decay not because we were part of the EU, but because we have elected successive Tory and Labour governments who have stolen and pillaged everything that was once great about Great Britain, ensuring the almost non stop transfer of our collective wealth into the hands of a very small pool of people. You have every right to be angry about the state of the country, but your anger is directed at the wrong target. What Brexit is doing is further protecting these parasites and ensuring the continuation of their abuses of you and your descendants - and Brexiteers are their unwitting foot soldiers. 

 

I can assure you no one detests, derides and distrusts politicians more than I do and that includes Nigel Farage.

 

And I will not even use that left wing rag the Daily Mail to wipe my arse on even when the day arrives that the shops finally run out of toilet paper.

 

Like many in Europe I now support the populous nationalist movement that is spreading the continent in reaction to the globalism that the political elite are trying to force down our throats. You live in Thailand so you are immune to what is going on back home.

 

Don't believe everything you read in the Daily Mail, or hear on the BBC and Sky News or whatever it is that floats your boat living in the LOS.

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