Clock Ticking On Junta Party’s PM Offer To Prayuth

[ThomasThBKK]

4 minutes ago, donnacha said:

They only put forward one candidate, not the allowed three.

Ah good point, but they still have their main party as this one was just a proxy basically.

 

I can imagine a lot of people voting against the military for whatever alternative there is - protest votes happened in many countries in the last years.

[Corruption 101]

On a brighter note. How can all this not possibly undermine the strength of the baht?

[Eligius]

3 minutes ago, Corruption 101 said:

On a brighter note. How can all this not possibly undermine the strength of the baht?

Ha ha! NOTHING - atomic warfare, revolution, riots, floods, prominent deaths - you  name it - NOTHING will shake or weaken the Thai baht.

It's long been a mystery to me!

 

Edited February 8, 2019 by Eligius

[SABloke]

1 hour ago, Eligius said:

You've said it, my friend. As regards the election result - it's all over, bar the shouting. Prayut will ensure  a successful result for himself/ his power-clique (as people such as myself and Baboon - and many others - have been predicting all along).

But 'the shouting' will surely come - later - and things will turn very nasty this year ...

Even I doubt that, I must confess. Eligius, I have often, over the past decade, been dismayed by how successful, educated Thai people that have travelled the world, can be as such whilst being brainwashed. Living here has made me realise how strong systemic propaganda can be. Right now, I can message one of the top 10 richest men in the country, and he will reply. That is how high up my interactions (not connections) go. But even his clique believe that the number 9 is truly an auspicious number, a number close to numerical perfection. I thought, as I read the news today, that someone had, unexpectedly, made the smartest play ever: for another 50 years or so, they would've been remembered for 'fixing' Thailand; all weirdness and previous 'transgressions' forgotten. But they didn't, and they won't. And there won't be any backlash (unfortunately) because at the end of the day, people like my mother in law, whom despises them, are so indoctrinated, that she still will hang at least a calendar among the portraits of 9, because she believes that it, the institution, is a tenet of being Thai. 

 

Regardless, I shall be gone before it matters, so I won't have to endure the nasty things if I'm wrong. 

[DrTuner]

Interesting events. I doubt she'll back off given the history, but does the EC have the gonads - if they don't, it's going to be mayhem again and very likely no elections at all.

[cornishcarlos]

Their clever ruse has worked..

No-one is talking about the panther poacher now, he's got away with murder !!

[Denim]

So , here we all are , four years on from a carefully orchestrated coup.

 

Was it a big success ? Has happiness been returned to the people and have all the divides in society created by the urban elite been healed.

 

Have there been any real reforms as demanded by the  people who destroyed democracy ?

 

Is there less corruption and nepotism than before and has there been more government transparency ?

 

Have expensive populist policies had there day ?

 

Do the Thai people of whatever level enjoy the same political freedoms as before the coup.

 

Is it yet safe to eat a sandwich and read 1984 in public ?

 

Obviously, the people have been lied to and deceived.

 

All that remains is to have a long delayed but carefully choreographed game of musical chairs so as to rubber stamp and

' legitimize ' the four years of failures and continue them into the future.

 

Well, at least in the children's version , all the children have to do the running. In the version we see here one person has conspicuously not even bothered to get out of his seat.

[Eligius]

4 hours ago, DrTuner said:

Interesting events. I doubt she'll back off given the history, but does the EC have the gonads - if they don't, it's going to be mayhem again and very likely no elections at all.

Hey, THAT is a scenario that I had not even considered (surprisingly, for me!). Maybe this will be used as a way of stopping the election - you know, 'The time is not tranquil and united enough as yet to hold an election', and all that .... Hm,,,,,,, who knows?!

[Eligius]

25 minutes ago, Denim said:

So , here we all are , four years on from a carefully orchestrated coup.

 

Was it a big success ? Has happiness been returned to the people and have all the divides in society created by the urban elite been healed.

 

Have there been any real reforms as demanded by the  people who destroyed democracy ?

 

Is there less corruption and nepotism than before and has there been more government transparency ?

 

Have expensive populist policies had there day ?

 

Do the Thai people of whatever level enjoy the same political freedoms as before the coup.

 

Is it yet safe to eat a sandwich and read 1984 in public ?

 

Obviously, the people have been lied to and deceived.

 

All that remains is to have a long delayed but carefully choreographed game of musical chairs so as to rubber stamp and

' legitimize ' the four years of failures and continue them into the future.

 

Well, at least in the children's version , all the children have to do the running. In the version we see here one person has conspicuously not even bothered to get out of his seat.

What a brilliant post (above). I think you state the case perfectly. Extremely eloquent and well-pointed, Denim. I cannot argue with what you write.

And yes: I think it is still 'eating with political intent' if one reads 1984 in public while eating at the same time!

 

Edited February 9, 2019 by Eligius

[poohy]

Uncertainty reigns..

The election is now a complete sham is it even worth having or will it even go ahead 

A vast part of the electorate in the country is, "well rather cross" leading to unrest which soon rise

 

The option yesterday was the way  to sort out the mess Thailand in it was taken away which shows how scared the elites are, possibly the biggest mistake they have ever made as it may cost them dearly!

[JAG]

26 minutes ago, Eligius said:

Yes, Mike - I suspected all day yesterday that the plan was for her to instigate a new Constitution (which of course would have been passed), to allow for Thaksin's return and then his later premiership. EVERY person (Thai or Westerner) that I have said this to insists: "No Way! It would be IMPOSSIBLE for Thaksin to be Prime Minister again'. I do not believe that. Given that particular lady's clout - I think anything could have been achieved.

But it has been stopped.

 

I don't think that would have been the main point. Yes, a return to Thailand by Thaksin (and Yingluck) would have almost been inevitable, but I suspect not a return to active politics - although perhaps an "elder statesman" role/ status?

 

What this scheme did have the potential to do was to remove the current deadlock in Thai politics. Putting the boot in, as appears to have been done blows wide open the cover story that this "election" is a return to democracy. The immediate ramifications are more likely to be international, confirmation, were it needed, of the way Thai politics is going. Short and medium term, domestically, it screws down the lid on the pressure cooker a couple of turns. Long term, who knows? Messy I suspect!

Edited February 9, 2019 by JAG

[bowerboy]

8 hours ago, Eligius said:

Ha ha! NOTHING - atomic warfare, revolution, riots, floods, prominent deaths - you  name it - NOTHING will shake or weaken the Thai baht.

It's long been a mystery to me!

 

 

Ignore above quote as I can’t temove from my comment.

 

What about all those people that did not put their names forward for candidacy because of this? Now they are all out of the race.

 

Strange though that Prawaut kept his in.

[bannork]

3 minutes ago, bowerboy said:

 

Ignore above quote as I can’t temove from my comment.

 

What about all those people that did not put their names forward for candidacy because of this? Now they are all out of the race.

 

Strange though that Prawaut kept his in.

I feel sorry for Jaturon Chaisaeng but then he should have left Thaksin years ago 

[Eligius]

7 minutes ago, bowerboy said:

 

Ignore above quote as I can’t temove from my comment.

 

What about all those people that did not put their names forward for candidacy because of this? Now they are all out of the race.

 

Strange though that Prawaut kept his in.

Yes. I was saying to colleagues yesterday that I am very surprised - and suspicious - that Prayut has still stepped forward as a candidate, DESPITE the 'unexpected' announcement. I felt that there was no way he would contest a person of a certain background and a certain bloodline.

So: perhaps he knew in advance what would later happen (i.e. blockage) - and that he was SAFE AND SECURE!

 

 

Edited February 9, 2019 by Eligius

[BestB]

3 minutes ago, Eligius said:

Yes. I was saying to colleagues yesterday that I am very surprised - and suspicious - that Prayut has still stepped forward as a candidate, DESPITE the 'unexpected' announcement. I felt that there was no way he would contest a person of a certain background and a certain bloodline.

So: perhaps he knew in advance what would later happen (i.e. blockage) - and that he was SAFE AND SECURE!

 

 

There was a lot of things happening between 10am and 23pm????

[Eligius]

8 minutes ago, Father Fintan Stack said:

I disagree here.

 

Thaksin knows he will never be PM again. He would have known the EC and junta would have objected and tried to block this nomination too. 

 

This move was to increase the unpopularity of Prayuth and the Junta and to make them un-electable.

 

It has worked.

 

It was a political master-stroke.

I wish I could agree with you on this one, Father (i.e. that Prayut is now rendered unelectable). I think Prayut's continuance in power (or at least that of the clique he represents) now continues to be assured. The numbers of votes cast one way or another is now (as before yesterday) an irrelevancy. It is all arranged and fixed.

Wish I were wrong!

But this is Thailand - so ANYTHING could happen (as we saw yesterday!).

 

Edited February 9, 2019 by Eligius

[JAG]

1 minute ago, Father Fintan Stack said:

I disagree here.

 

Thaksin knows he will never be PM again. He would have known the EC and junta would have objected and tried to block this nomination too. 

 

This move was to increase the unpopularity of Prayuth and the Junta and to make them un-electable.

 

It has worked.

 

It was a political master-stroke.

1

"This move was to increase the unpopularity of Prayuth and the Junta and to make them un-electable."

 

Yes absolutely to the first part of your conclusion. As for the second part, the electoral arithmetic will somehow, with the appropriate assistance from the EC and perhaps the courts, ultimately ensure that the Junta is "elected".

[Corruption 101]

What election? Anyone who thinks it will proceed next month is deluded.

Edited February 9, 2019 by Corruption 101

[bowerboy]

This is game over...the elites and military have won...Thailand is done for years to come.

 

Do not expect any other outcome.

 

”Oust me if you dare jerks”

[bowerboy]

UNLESS this is a prelude to a countercoup? 

 

Could it be that hat a big enough excuse was needed and this was the excuse?

[spidermike007]

2 hours ago, Denim said:

So , here we all are , four years on from a carefully orchestrated coup.

 

Was it a big success ? Has happiness been returned to the people and have all the divides in society created by the urban elite been healed.

 

Have there been any real reforms as demanded by the  people who destroyed democracy ?

 

Is there less corruption and nepotism than before and has there been more government transparency ?

 

Have expensive populist policies had there day ?

 

Do the Thai people of whatever level enjoy the same political freedoms as before the coup.

 

Is it yet safe to eat a sandwich and read 1984 in public ?

 

Obviously, the people have been lied to and deceived.

 

All that remains is to have a long delayed but carefully choreographed game of musical chairs so as to rubber stamp and

' legitimize ' the four years of failures and continue them into the future.

 

Well, at least in the children's version , all the children have to do the running. In the version we see here one person has conspicuously not even bothered to get out of his seat.

 

A truly tragic outcome for the nation. This will set Thailand back decades. All the progress of the past three of four decades will now be erased. Thailand will virtually be removed from the tourist map. Exports will drop. The end of an era. Vastly more xenophobia, tighter restrictions on foreigners. This could not have possibly ended in a worse manner. Wonder if today will be referred to as Black Saturday, decades from now, when Thai history is being taught? Prayuth is literally the worst possible candidate, to lead Thailand into the future. Dark days ahead folks. No way around that now. 

 

The only way around this, is for the election commission to certify her, regardless. Doubt that would happen, but it would be a beautiful thing to witness. 

 

One positive outcome from all of this, will be that the country will likely become a pariah worldwide, and the baht could take a major hit. Not a good thing for the Thai people. But, for once, good news for ex-pats. 

Edited February 9, 2019 by spidermike007

[neeray]

10 hours ago, ThomasThBKK said:

Not sure its over, people might still vote for the party she was running for.

 

It was great advertisement and everyone knows them now and everyone also knows who supports that party even if only unofficially.

 

 

 

Maybe after all it was a marketing stunt that may work out?

Bang on ! Thank you.

 

Run or not run, I see damage done to someone by raising an awareness to discontentment.

 

The short lived excitement may live on!

The on again/off again announcement will motivate those in favour of change.

[nong38]

I do wonder if the recent developments will have damaged the party who's support comes from "up North" as now who is their PM candidate? Makes you wonder if it was all planned and Prayuth now feels even more secure then before. What a way to run a country, what a way to run an election! We will see what we will see and who knows maybe the Boy Scouts will sport a coup in the future.

I do wonder what the other members of Asean think about what is going on here.

[bowerboy]

My bold claim: Countercoup is coming...this was the catalyst.

[Eligius]

4 minutes ago, bowerboy said:

My bold claim: Countercoup is coming...this was the catalyst.

I don't think so (although anything is possible here): if the Powers That Be had wanted to oust the Prayut faction and their predominance, that certain Lady's election would have been the PERFECT way to achieve that end.

I think the only coup that is coming (in the short-term) is the CONTINUED coup by Prayut from 2014!

 

 

Edited February 9, 2019 by Eligius

[bowerboy]

This whole fiasco is either one of 2 things:

 

1. A brilliantly thought out master plan with the coup degrace still to come.

2. A total c$&k up with no planning or thought.

 

Right now who the heck knows.

[Eligius]

4 minutes ago, bowerboy said:

This whole fiasco is either one of 2 things:

 

1. A brilliantly thought out master plan with the coup degrace still to come.

2. A total c$&k up with no planning or thought.

 

Right now who the heck knows.

I think that many of us, knowing the Thais and Thailand, will tend to think that the very, very great likelihood is in favour of your Option Number 2 (maybe initially well planned - but then things went awry, due to lack of foresight).

But -  I am not 100% certain that your Option Number 1 is wrong! It is probably a combination of your two options.

 

 

 

Edited February 9, 2019 by Eligius

[Eric Loh]

Still think the last 24 hours event was cocordinated for the message and not the messenger. The message will affect the election.   

[Eric Loh]

2 hours ago, bowerboy said:

 

Ignore above quote as I can’t temove from my comment.

 

What about all those people that did not put their names forward for candidacy because of this? Now they are all out of the race.

 

Strange though that Prawaut kept his in.

The election law does allow a re-nomination of candidate should the previous candidate withdraw or deemed illegible. Think the time frame is till next Friday. 

[bowerboy]

11 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Still think the last 24 hours event was cocordinated for the message and not the messenger. The message will affect the election.   

 

What is the message though? Kind of hard to work it out. After today’s announcement the message is completely unclear.

 

The only message I can see is the Junta has complete and total support and will be running this country for decades to come.