Election a tipping point for ‘Thai-style democracy’

[webfact]

Election a tipping point for ‘Thai-style democracy’

By Titipol Phakdeewanich  
special to The Nation

 

 

Officially, Monday’s registration of election candidates was not a significant milestone for Thai democracy.

 

Nevertheless the excitement it generated among pro-democracy Thais, political parties and their candidates has sparked anxiety for the country’s anti-democratic movement. 

 

This year’s election will certainly be crucial for the future of democracy in Thailand, though the outcome is in reality fairly predictable. The 2017 military-written Constitution incorporates legal mechanisms designed to enable the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), the military junta, to retain its grip on power after the election. 

 

Before the NCPO finally agreed to hold the poll, there had been ongoing political disputes – both in the real world and on social media – over the merits of elections versus continued military rule. These fights will persist ahead of next month’s election, whose result will indicate whether Thais want a liberal democracy, or the so-called “Thai-style democracy”, in which the universality of human rights is denied. 

 

Junta’s record.  

 

Last week, Prime Minister General Prayut Chan-o-cha spoke to the nation about his achievements during almost five years in power, claiming to have made significant contributions to Thailand. The pro-military Phalang Pracharat Party hopes to capitalise on Prayut’s many populist programmes, such as the much-criticised welfare card for the poor, to gain votes. 

 

Prayut’s economic achievements will hardly convince the rural population and many other Thai voters, but his claim to have brought political stability, through military suppression, remains convincing to people across the political

spectrum. This will not, however, easily transfer into votes. These days, rural Thais make more complex voting decisions than the typical picture of vote-buying suggests.

 

Meanwhile the persistence of Shinawatra-phobia continues to serve the interests of Phalang Pracharat, the Democrat Party and the Ruam Palang Prachachart Thai Party, especially in wooing urban-middle class voters.

 

In the rural North, the picture is still very different.     

 

“I trust Thaksin because his party delivered what they promised us: we can go to hospital when we are ill now. We remember a big drop in the drug problem when Thaksin was prime minister,” said a villager who preferred to remain anonymous, referring to PM Thaksin Shinawatra’s drug war, whose extrajudicial killings were criticised as violating human rights.

 

Voter loyalty?

 

The incumbent Pheu Thai party won almost 16 million votes in the 2011 election, sweeping the North and Northeast (Isaan), under the leadership of Yingluck Shinawatra. Although it was thanks to her brother’s legacy that she won 265 of the 500 seats in the House of Representatives, Yingluck also rejuvenated the Shinawatra brand by introducing popular rice subsidies (a policy that eventually brought her downfall) and other policies that were greatly welcomed by rural populations, especially in Isaan. Pheu Thai’s long history and success in the region underscores the loyalty rural voters feel towards the party.

 

Nevertheless, voter loyalty won’t be the only factor in the party’s performance. Embedded patronage networks – especially in rural villages where politicians tend to portray themselves as generous patrons rather than public servants – will also be key. As a consequence, Pheu Thai may suffer in areas where their former MPs have been poached by Phalang Pracharat.

 

However, public trust in Pheu Thai’s ability to deliver promises remains high compared to its political rivals, especially the Democrats and Phalang Pracharat.

 

Will election restore democracy?

 

The NCPO will likely maintain its grip on power, either with Prayut or another surrogate as next prime minister. The voting power of the 250 NCPO-appointed senators, enshrined in the 2017 constitution, assures that. So the question arises, why have elections at all?

 

The vote will be a crucial barometer of whether Thailand is moving forward. A regional beacon for democracy and development during the 1990s and early 2000s, Thailand’s democratic progress was abruptly halted and reversed by the 2006 and 2014 military coups.

 

The erosion of democracy and retrenchment of authoritarianism was hardly new, being a facet of Thai politics since the bloodless 1932 revolution. Since then, a group of conservative Thais among the political establishment have remained convinced that it is premature for the country to become a  “Western-style” or “liberal” democracy. Over time, this group re-enforced its so-called Thai-style democracy, which limits freedom of expression and denies the universality of human rights.  

 

Thai history over the past decade is in line with a global trend for democratic decline. However, the emergence of newcomers such as the Future Forward Party has not only encouraged a new generation to enter politics but also influenced old parties like the Democrats to provide space for political newbies. 

 

Of course, the parade of fresh, young faces won’t change Thai politics overnight. The conservative political establishment is deep-rooted and enduring, but political newcomers can bring fresh ideas to Thailand’s democratic movement in the long term.

 

Effects of campaign restrictions

 

Despite domestic and international criticism, the junta continues to defend its ability to ensure a “free and fair election”, denying the need for international observers from the European Union or the UN. 

 

NCPO-imposed restrictions may force more “constructive” campaigning, especially among anti-junta politicians. In Isaan, where campaign rallies are being closely monitored, many Pheu Thai candidates have avoided criticising the NCPO. Instead, they are focusing on a more positive discourse, with slogans such as: “Brothers, it’s your voices, your power to choose in March” and “Brothers, we can take our power back by going to the polls and voting against them.”

 

This helps to instil a core democratic value in the minds of voters – “people power ”.

 

There’s no doubt however that a cloud of fear and intimidation hangs over the election. The NCPO has not created an equal playing field for all parties. Indeed, the restrictions will likely reward longstanding parties because of existing voter loyalty, with newcomers suffering as a consequence. 

 

Ultimately, the election can only meet international standards if the NCPO takes a neutral stance. Without that neutrality, the national vote is nothing more than a means to legitimise and prolong the military’s political power.

 

Titipol Phakdeewanich is a political scientist at the Faculty of Political Science, Ubon Ratchathani University. 

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/opinion/30363748

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2019-02-08

[Samui Bodoh]

"...The erosion of democracy and retrenchment of authoritarianism was hardly new, being a facet of Thai politics since the bloodless 1932 revolution. Since then, a group of conservative Thais among the political establishment have remained convinced that it is premature for the country to become a  “Western-style” or “liberal” democracy. Over time, this group re-enforced its so-called Thai-style democracy, which limits freedom of expression and denies the universality of human rights..." 

 

You ascribe a motive to these "people" that gives them a sheen of respectability (albeit a small one) that they give a proverbial 'Rats Ass' for the country or people by thinking that Thais 'aren't ready' to govern themselves.

 

My view of them is that they want power and wealth.

 

Nothing more.

 

Absolutely nothing more.

 

[kannot]

22 minutes ago, Samui Bodoh said:

My view of them is that they want power and wealth.

 

but  do  the  other  team  or  Thais  in general  not seek  the   same?

[YetAnother]

1 hour ago, webfact said:

the so-called “Thai-style democracy”, in which the universality of human rights is denied.

same as claiming black is white; democracy without human rights is not a democracy

[madmen]

15 minutes ago, YetAnother said:

same as claiming black is white; democracy without human rights is not a democracy

Human rights are pretty bad across all of SEA especially communist Vietnam so in reality there is no democracy. 

Thailand doesn't need western style democracy at this stage in its development. Thailand needs stability. 

Plenty of time for democracy in about 20 years 

[marcusarelus]

22 minutes ago, YetAnother said:

same as claiming black is white; democracy without human rights is not a democracy

Democracy is a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives.  If all of those people don't want human rights no problem or if they do not problem - has nothing to do with being a democracy.  Suggest google definition democracy. 

[marcusarelus]

4 minutes ago, madmen said:

Human rights are pretty bad across all of SEA especially communist Vietnam so in reality there is no democracy. 

Thailand doesn't need western style democracy at this stage in its development. Thailand needs stability. 

Plenty of time for democracy in about 20 years 

You have had an election and determined what the Thai people want?  I must have missed it.

[Lungstib]

2 hours ago, webfact said:

but his claim to have brought political stability, through military suppression,

How can you claim to have brought political stability when you have in fact banned anyone but yourself from participating? Its easy to win a race when you are the only runner. And sadly, even though he has allowed the others to enter he has considerably handicapped them.

[Lungstib]

28 minutes ago, madmen said:

Plenty of time for democracy in about 20 years

Strangely enough, if you read the declaration announced in 1932, some Thais were calling for an end to absolute dictatorial powers and something akin to democracy some 100 years before you think they should get it.

[madmen]

10 minutes ago, Lungstib said:

Strangely enough, if you read the declaration announced in 1932, some Thais were calling for an end to absolute dictatorial powers and something akin to democracy some 100 years before you think they should get it.

In your own words "some thais" 

1932! Plenty of time to get it right and they still struggling. Your post is a perfect example of why democracy may never work here. 

 

Thais want stability before democracy and that's why there were no big protests in the last 4 years. I'm truly surprised that farang on TV don't get it 

[rkidlad]

8 minutes ago, madmen said:

Thais want stability before democracy

To quote you, "In your own words". 

 

Have a vote and see. It's really rather simple. 

[PatOngo]

14 minutes ago, madmen said:

In your own words "some thais" 

1932! Plenty of time to get it right and they still struggling. Your post is a perfect example of why democracy may never work here. 

 

Thais want stability before democracy and that's why there were no big protests in the last 4 years. I'm truly surprised that farang on TV don't get it 

Do some research on General Suchinda, you may start to understand why Thai's are reluctant to protest against a military junta!

Edited February 8, 2019 by PatOngo

[mfd101]

People always confuse 'democracy' (a subset - large or small - of the population voting for government & policies) and 'liberalism' (properly understood as all the 'values' we think of as 'universal' [though mostly only 'Western' in fact, because based on Western notions of individuality] - human rights, free speech, freedom of religion ... ).

 

The point is that you can have democracy without liberalism (ancient Athens) and you can have liberalism without democracy (Austria-Hungary in the late C19th). Confusing the two is unhelpful.

[robblok]

1 hour ago, kannot said:

but  do  the  other  team  or  Thais  in general  not seek  the   same?

Exactly, both sides are not there for the people but to enrich themselves. Still if the crooks of the PTP get to power they will be checked more then juntra crooks. So i would not mind if the PTP won they would have a harder time (far from impossible of course) being their corrupt self.

[soalbundy]

Democracy ? Oh that.

[Lupatria]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

‘Thai-style democracy’

[Srikcir]

2 hours ago, marcusarelus said:

If all of those people don't want human rights no problem or if they do not problem - has nothing to do with being a democracy. 

I'm not sure the direction you're taking but will say you are right - nothing to do with being a democracy because it isn't democracy.

Democracy, while acceding to rule by the majority, must also protect the rights of the minority. Democracy demands a check & balance. Otherwise, governance becomes an authoritarian regime (ie., not a democracy) that holds the rights of the minority to the contrivance of the majority.

[Pedrogaz]

Seems to me that the calling these elections democratic is untrue. The appointed chamber can overrule anything that the lower elected house enacts. What is democratic about that? Perhaps paternal democracy as the people cannot be trusted? What is democratic about the unelected Election Commission that harass parties that are not favourable to the established elites?

We will have no democracy until the elite cede some power and wealth to the people.

[Eric Loh]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

Election a tipping point for ‘Thai-style democracy’

This is history now. Momentous paradigm shift this morning. Now the headline should be

"Election a tipping point for the Military'. 

[UKJASE]

game changer indeed.....  will anyone else stand?

[Kwasaki]

Whatever happens I hope things are not a led back to red shirt & yellow shirt fiasco. 

[mfd101]

Amazing Thailand!!! In current circumstances, can only be good, I think.

[Briggsy]

Well, that has put another light on things.

 

[overherebc]

4 hours ago, kannot said:

but  do  the  other  team  or  Thais  in general  not seek  the   same?

Or any other politician in any party in any other country in the world?

[bowerboy]

With this mornings developments I feel a real sense of jubilation.

 

it feels like a dark cloud has been lifted from Thailand

[Eligius]

14 minutes ago, bowerboy said:

With this mornings developments I feel a real sense of jubilation.

 

it feels like a dark cloud has been lifted from Thailand

Potentially, yes - but there is still a rough, unpredictable and long road to travel. Will questions be allowed ...?

Seeming steps forward can sometimes actually be steps backwards. Or: a very cunning long-term plan could be in operation to allow for a certain return ....

 

 

 

Edited February 8, 2019 by Eligius

[stud858]

5 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

My view of them is that they want power and wealth.

Same as most Australian politicians. Only a few stand out as working for the people. Mostly female too.

 

[Eric Loh]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

The voting power of the 250 NCPO-appointed senators, enshrined in the 2017 constitution, assures that.

 Where will their loyalties lie. They are human after all. 

[bowerboy]

4 minutes ago, Eligius said:

Potentially, yes - but there is still a rough, unpredictable and long road to travel. Will questions be allowed ...?

 

I find AM analysis (hope AM is understood...banned in Thailand journalist) to be extraordinarily accurate and he was reporting this before anyone else.

 

He predicts this will bring stability in the short and medium term but in the long term it will creat instability.

 

I think though that this is wonderful news for Thailand and has given me renewed faith.

[poohy]

Good morning

I think in the light of the breaking news (Bangkok post re elections)

Mr Prayuth is having as pleasant a day as us expats had last week.

Its good news for Thailand

 

I sincerely hope this finishes his PM career for good!