georgegeorgia Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 (edited) Had a debate last night with another farang from Australia and I apologise the question is mostly related to Aussieexchange is the thai baht going to go down or up ?? Its currently 22.38 per Aussie dollar, but last week went down to its lowest at 22.20 so $100 Aud is now approx 2,230 baht give or take. A beer at 90 baht would be nearly $5 Australian ! I know now why many Aussies are going to Bali or Phillipines that means things are far more expensive in Thailand than many Western Countries . So its now going to be a struggle if it keeps going dowm. is there any Economists here, surely there is, that can advise on a 12 month outlook please ! I know there is a lot of “smart educated “ that do read these topics sometimes so are you able to give a opinion or you cant at this stage ? Edited March 14, 2019 by georgegeorgia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post whiteman Posted March 14, 2019 Popular Post Share Posted March 14, 2019 drink less 3 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madmen Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 since its in a downward trend I would expect it test previous lows. If it bounces all good if keeps going down then time to sell my condo for a killing on exchange rates..more than one way to profit from RE in LOS and head back to oz for a few years 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post georgegeorgia Posted March 14, 2019 Author Popular Post Share Posted March 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, whiteman said: drink less You may not be n the bracket of “ smart educated” i was seeking. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post ezzra Posted March 14, 2019 Popular Post Share Posted March 14, 2019 If economist would know where the economy is heading including currencies, they will all be multi millionaires by now, the best you can get is an educated guess based on past, current and future events, and many of those so called predictions have turned out to be inaccurate, but judging on current sentiments in Oz, don't hold your breath for a better exchange that what is now... 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berkshire Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 2 hours ago, ezzra said: If economist would know where the economy is heading including currencies, they will all be multi millionaires by now, the best you can get is an educated guess based on past, current and future events, and many of those so called predictions have turned out to be inaccurate, but judging on current sentiments in Oz, don't hold your breath for a better exchange that what is now... Agree. Free financial advice is worth exactly what you paid for it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Puchaiyank Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 Relative strength of the baht to foreign currencies will always be a concern to expats in Thailand... I use the 30 day currency predictor program to try and get the best month to month rates... http://30rates.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tlandtday Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, ezzra said: If economist would know where the economy is heading including currencies, they will all be multi millionaires by now, the best you can get is an educated guess based on past, current and future events, and many of those so called predictions have turned out to be inaccurate, but judging on current sentiments in Oz, don't hold your breath for a better exchange that what is now... the economists don't have a clue but you can bet the wall streeters have the inside track... Edited March 14, 2019 by tlandtday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ghworker2010 Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 The opinion on the AuD reported in the mainstream press differs every 3 to 6 months. This time last year I read an article stating that they thought the $ would rise. Then later on another predicted it would drop. Oz is perceived to be in mild economic downturn. I believe the rate will be shit for another year or so. Move to the philippines. The dead farang channel on youtube just said today that the oz rate is 36 to the peso. Move to the philippines? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giddyup Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 Glad I bought a house when I did at 27 baht to the A$, but if I'd done it a couple of weeks earlier I would have got over 30 baht. That loss cost me nearly ten grand Australian. This was 8 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wombat Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 2 hours ago, Puchaiyank said: Relative strength of the baht to foreign currencies will always be a concern to expats in Thailand... I use the 30 day currency predictor program to try and get the best month to month rates... http://30rates.com/ how has that worked out for you?.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Deerculler Posted March 14, 2019 Popular Post Share Posted March 14, 2019 The biggest problem for New Zealand and Australia is because they are tied to whatever happens with China. China is NZ and Aust. biggest trading partner. If China goes down so do we. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarleyMarl Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 17 minutes ago, Deerculler said: The biggest problem for New Zealand and Australia is because they are tied to whatever happens with China. China is NZ and Aust. biggest trading partner. If China goes down so do we. Yes this is what i've been reading, since China's economy is slowing down, if they have more issues then don't expect AUD to rise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pungdo Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 According to the forecasts on this website it is heading down to below 20 in 2020 ????https://audtoday.com/aud-to-thb-forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aussieroaming Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 Aussie dollar down, property prices spiralling downward, seems like a good time for overseas investors to look at Australia. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ulic Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 The minimum wage in Australia is $18.93 With that you are at the poverty line. Manufacturing has left the country. (for the most part) The Australian economy is resource-based and exports most of those resources to China. China is slowing down significantly. When I do the math it does not look good for the Australian dollar. My guess is the Australian government will be working hard to devalue the currency to help exports and help tourism. A slow decline is probable versus the baht. For now, Thailands foreign currency account surplus is very high so I don't see the value of the baht going down. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Puchaiyank Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 1 hour ago, wombat said: how has that worked out for you?.... Their predictions...like most...can be skewed by unexpected current events...but it is better than asking a monk to pray for your success...???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimHuaHin Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 Who knows? The financial analysts and economists make their predictions, which are more than often wrong. Before moving to Thailand about 6 years ago, I looked at the historical A$-Thai Baht exchage rate and Australian interest rate data - the data suggested interest rates should average around 5% (thus reasonable to keep money in an Australian bank investment account) and the exchage rate around 30 Baht to the A$ (giving me enough to have a comfortable life in Thailand). Both guesses were wrong. Over the short term, say until the end of this year - Australian political situation is not good and the Australian economy is so-so (tied very much to China, and China is slowing down). For what it is worth, my guess is that the exchange rate will basially stay where it is, and interest rates will not go up until 2020. Beyond 2020, your guess is as good as mine. Thailand is becoming too expensive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dreaming Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 1 hour ago, giddyup said: Glad I bought a house when I did at 27 baht to the A$, but if I'd done it a couple of weeks earlier I would have got over 30 baht. That loss cost me nearly ten grand Australian. This was 8 years ago. Must be a cheap house - $100K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dreaming Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 They are talking about possible interest rate cuts now. That is a sure fire way for the aussie dollar to devalue further 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timendres Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 46 minutes ago, Pungdo said: According to the forecasts on this website it is heading down to below 20 in 2020 ????https://audtoday.com/aud-to-thb-forecast Complete nonsense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeN Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 Well, about 9 months ago some of the “experts” here on TV were adamant the $AU was about to go below 19 baht. They were wrong then, and those same “experts” will probably be wrong again. There are too many variables to accurately predict currency fluctuations in anything more than the immediate short term future. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post mfd101 Posted March 14, 2019 Popular Post Share Posted March 14, 2019 Today's 'Australian' says the $A is heading down to US0.68 but likely to recover to its current 0.7 by the end of the year. Depending how the baht goes against the US$, you can do the maths. In sum, the news is more likely bad than good. However, the 'Oz' also says that, when the Chinese economy heads down, the Chinese government pulls out all stops to build it back up - which means big infrastructure spends, which is good for Oz resource exports to China ... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnarth Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 49 minutes ago, Aussieroaming said: Aussie dollar down, property prices spiralling downward, seems like a good time for overseas investors to look at Australia. joke? there is nothing left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seeall Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 5 hours ago, Berkshire said: Agree. Free financial advice is worth exactly what you paid for it. The old "you get what you pay for" mainly from aussies.. lol.. But in this case, I agree, if they were even more than half sure they knew where anything was headed more than 50% then they would just do it and be very well off.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
puipuitom Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 In th4 Mid 80's I followed an evening program at the University of Amsterdam, Fac. Economy about international affairs , and influence on currencies / exchange rates. At the end of the 14 evenings, one of the students thanked the professor, but asked: " Now we know why.. then.. etc etc, but.. can you also tell what the exchange rate of the US$ will be next week towards the European currencies ? " ( Just in that time, the US$ got stronger and stronger, the Bundesbank of Germany tried with a DM 3 BILLION to stop the US$ at 3 MDM. result… sfruppp.. and gone were these DM 3 Billion) Answer of the prof: "for currency exchanges ( of the US$ towards the EU currencies) you should not ask the Faculty of Economics, but of Psychology" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brunolem Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 Australia's economy is currently caught in a slowly deflating bubble, that was inflated by China, the latter's bubble also currently deflating. Yet, thanks to wise policies such as betting the farm on China and Chinese tourists, Thailand has made itself very vulnerable to economic weakness in China. Thus, it is not because the Thai baht has been on a roll for a few years, that it is going to be that way forever... There is nothing tangible to support the surprising strength of the baht. If Thailand was one of the strongest economies in the world, that would make the headlines... most probably the baht has reached such high levels because very few players on the markets have paid any attention to it, and started shorting it, in the way many players are shorting the yuan for example. .. but that could change anytime... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post MalandLee Posted March 14, 2019 Popular Post Share Posted March 14, 2019 (edited) In 1993 it hit 30 - (Sep 1993) 16.419122 Baht - that was my lowest since coming here. 31 Jan 1998 it hit 34.790813 Baht - the highest since me coming here In the years 2011 to 2014 it was consistently OVER 30 Baht to the dollar. IMO there are no crystal balls - if there is a global shortage of raw materials - the Aussie will soar. There are lot's of "buts" - but, if there is a (set of) trade deals, China & India may fire up their factories again - "Historically" OZ does well when this happens. BTW the AUD has "averaged" 25.001601 Baht to $AUD1.00 over the last 20 years - right now we are 10% or so BELLOW average. SOURCES: https://www.ofx.com/en-au/forex-news/historical-exchange-rates/yearly-average-rates/ https://www.ofx.com/en-au/forex-news/historical-exchange-rates/ Edited March 14, 2019 by MalandLee 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropposurfer Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 Will Jesus come back tonight while I'm asleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brunolem Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, Tropposurfer said: Will Jesus come back tonight while I'm asleep. Well, if you keep your TV turned on the broadcasting of Manchester City's game, you could indeed see him... yet I am not sure whether Man C is playing tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.png.3b3332cc2256ad0edbc2fe9404feeef0.png)
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now