No major harm to Thailand from Brexit, say experts

[webfact]

No major harm to Thailand from Brexit, say experts 

By PHUWIT LIMVIPHUWAT 
THE NATION 

 

A leaflet is seen in the harbour of Rotterdam, to inform transporters how to be prepared for the Brexit, in Rotterdam, The Netherlands, on March 13.//EPA-EFE

 

EXPERTS PREDICT that Brexit will have a limited impact on the Thai economy, saying that the biggest loser will be the United Kingdom itself. 

 

On Tuesday, UK lawmakers rejected May’s Brexit agreement proposal by 391 to 242 votes in the House of Commons. On Wednesday, the no-deal Brexit option – a scenario in which the UK would leave the EU without any agreement in place – was also rejected by the Commons. The UK is due to leave the EU on March 29.

 

UK lawmakers were voting last night on whether to request a Brexit date extension.

 

“Research has shown that Brexit is the UK and the European Union’s problem,” said Paiboon Nalinthrangkurn, chairman of the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organisations (Fetco). 

 

He argued that in the worst-case scenario where the UK leaves the EU with no-deal, the Thai economy may only take a 0.1- to 0.2-per-cent hit to its Gross Domestic Product (GDP), while the UK would go into a recession in 2020, with a GDP growth contraction of 0.6 per cent, from an original forecast of 2-per-cent growth. 

 

The Commerce Ministry’s Department of Trade Negotiations (DTN) views the economic impacts of Brexit on the Thai economy as being unclear.

 

“The impacts of recent developments concerning Brexit are still unclear. However, Brexit will mostly impact the UK’s economy,” said Auramon Supthaweethum, DTN director-general. 

 

 The UK had been preparing its customs [department] to cope with Brexit for some time, and predicted that Thai trade was unlikely to be disrupted by the event, she said. 

 

“For example, they are prepared to establish and manage their own trade customs with their own customs officers,” she explained.

 

However, the prospect of the UK leaving the EU may complicate the free trade agreement (FTA) negotiations between Thailand and the EU.

 

Thailand is expecting to continue its Thai-EU FTA negotiations in the second half of this year after it was halted four years ago, Auramon said.

 

“After the Thai election in March and the European Parliament election in May, the Thai-EU FTA negotiations will likely be back on the table,” she said. 

 

“Brexit will not affect the Thai-EU FTA negotiations,” she assured, explaining that Thailand would continue to negotiate with the EU bloc without the UK if it decided to leave the EU. 

 

“However, given that the UK is currently Thailand’s second largest trading partner in the EU, Thailand will also be seeking to establish an FTA with the UK after Brexit,” said Auramon. 

 

Representatives from Thailand’s private sector have voiced their demand for an improvement in the ease of trade between the Kingdom and the EU, as well as with the UK, she added. 

 

In 2018, Thailand’s trade with the UK was valued at Bt226 billion, with Thai exports accounting for up to Bt130 billion, according to the Thai Customs Department. 

 

Meanwhile, one possible impact of Brexit on Thai trade is on the country-specific quota tax on Thai exports to the EU, according to the director-general. 

 

Currently, Thai exports such as rice and cassava would be taxed at a higher rate if the quantity exported to the EU exceeded the set quota.

 

“When the UK leaves the EU, there may a need to make amendments to the quota of goods, as the UK will also need to establish their own separate quota on Thai exports,” she explained. 

 

Auramon said Thailand would negotiate a new post-Brexit quota with both the UK and the EU and she guaranteed that it would not be any lower than the current EU quota, which includes the UK. 

 

Hiroki Matsumata, president of the Japan External Trade Organisation Bangkok (Jetro Bangkok) and Asean’s chief representative, said: “The direct impacts of Brexit on the Thai economy are going to be limited. However, it is still too soon to say what the positive and negative indirect impacts of the historic break-up are going to be.

 

“For Japanese firms in Thailand, both Brexit and the US-China trade war represent the rise of protectionist trends around the world. However, Japanese firms believe Thailand and other Asean members champion free trade and that after Brexit, Thailand will continue to push for more free trade with the EU and the UK,” he said. 

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/business/30365839

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2019-03-15

 

RELATED: British lawmakers overwhelmingly back Brexit delay

[DoctorG]

Brexit? What Brexit?

[djayz]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

“Research has shown that Brexit is the UK and the European Union’s problem,” said Paiboon Nalinthrangkurn, chairman of the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organisations (Fetco). 

He needed to do research to come to that conclusion? Give the man a medal! 

[Henryford]

Haven't they heard, Brexit has been cancelled.

[mickymouse1]

What a load of RUBBISH!!

[MaxLee]

1 hour ago, DoctorG said:

Brexit? What Brexit?

Me no understannnn 

[I wonder]

It’s a big problem for us who are paid pensions out of UK ???? just the mention of BREXIT was enough to devalue sterling ????

[dcnx]

1 hour ago, djayz said:

He needed to do research to come to that conclusion? Give the man a medal! 

A committee figured it out.

[yellowboat]

11 minutes ago, I wonder said:

It’s a big problem for us who are paid pensions out of UK ???? just the mention of BREXIT was enough to devalue sterling ????

Your research is far superior to the article.   The buying power of the pound will effect trade. 

[Jim7777]

Actually this might be good for the exchange rate improvement.  

[Srikcir]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

EXPERTS PREDICT that Brexit will have a limited impact on the Thai economy,

The same was said about the US-China trade war. But now it's recognized that there will be possible negative spillover from trade destroyed by the conflict. http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/opinion/30361505

What is the challenge for Thailand after Brexit is the ability of both the UK and Thailand to quickly reach a new separate trade deal. That may prove difficult and time consuming, ie., months if not longer. For the UK "wanting to forge new trading relationships after Brexit and securing them are two very different things"

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/feb/16/leavers-discovering-difficult-truth-trade-deals-brexit

Furthermore, if one presumes that the UK will begin negotiations of new trade deals after Brexit with various nations according to its domestic consumption priorities, Thailand may be not be among the earliest UK trade deals.

 

[hotchilli]

Might put off a few British tourists who would look for a better deal than Thailand now that the exchange rate is cr@p

[gamini]

1 hour ago, Henryford said:

Haven't they heard, Brexit has been cancelled.

i really hope you are right

[Orac]

19 minutes ago, Srikcir said:

The same was said about the US-China trade war. But now it's recognized that there will be possible negative spillover from trade destroyed by the conflict. http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/opinion/30361505

What is the challenge for Thailand after Brexit is the ability of both the UK and Thailand to quickly reach a new separate trade deal. That may prove difficult and time consuming, ie., months if not longer. For the UK "wanting to forge new trading relationships after Brexit and securing them are two very different things"

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/feb/16/leavers-discovering-difficult-truth-trade-deals-brexit

Furthermore, if one presumes that the UK will begin negotiations of new trade deals after Brexit with various nations according to its domestic consumption priorities, Thailand may be not be among the earliest UK trade deals.

 

 

Could go for the quick win and have the UK offer free access to Thai products if they offer free access to our pensioners. Huge saving for the NHS, less GOM in the UK and, if claims are correct, Isaan will be awash with money.

[Derek B]

1 hour ago, I wonder said:

It’s a big problem for us who are paid pensions out of UK ???? just the mention of BREXIT was enough to devalue sterling ????

So you have no faith in Sterling making a recovery post Brexit?

 

[Derek B]

19 minutes ago, Orac said:

 

Could go for the quick win and have the UK offer free access to Thai products if they offer free access to our pensioners. Huge saving for the NHS, less GOM in the UK and, if claims are correct, Isaan will be awash with money.

Good idea - have the NHS send folk to Thailand for cheap treatment & possibly burial. 

[Ulic]

The biggest issue will not be trade and quotas with Thailand but the devaluing UK currency and possibly the Euro will fall as well. European/UK retires in Thailand would have less to spend and some may be forced to return home. Also the number of UK holidaymakers in Thailand may also fall. We shall see what comes to pass.

[ravip]

1 hour ago, MaxLee said:

Me no understannnn 

Me no unnnerstannnn who expert is 

[joecoolfrog]

1 hour ago, Derek B said:

So you have no faith in Sterling making a recovery post Brexit?

 

Unfortunately a no deal Brexit may well mean many pensioners will die before that happens !

A soft ( as in Mays deal ) exit however should see Sterling rise reasonably swiftly.

[asiamaster]

2 hours ago, Ulic said:

The biggest issue will not be trade and quotas with Thailand but the devaluing UK currency and possibly the Euro will fall as well. European/UK retires in Thailand would have less to spend and some may be forced to return home. Also the number of UK holidaymakers in Thailand may also fall. We shall see what comes to pass.

The moment the UK makes a trade deal with the US the pound will rise. The Euro will just continue to drop.

And a FTA between Thailand and the EU will be in place well before the notoriously slow EU.

[SunsetT]

Only major harm to British Expats from the appalling exchange rate!

[SweetStickyRice]

Since when was Thailand part of the EU? 

[moe666]

All of the Brits with barely funded extension of stays will be making a mass exodus, as the LB heads for the bottom. There was some Brit being recorded several nights ago and as he said they need us more than we need them. I guess we will soon know.

[Huayrat]

He said the UK would go into a Recession haha.. Where do they find these fools haha

[dunroaming]

7 hours ago, mickymouse1 said:

What a load of RUBBISH!!

Brexit or the article ????

 

Actually it does make some difference for those suffering from the exchange rate, especially if it is pension related.  Not enough to make any real difference now that the Chinese are the chosen people ????

[lamyai3]

1 hour ago, moe666 said:

All of the Brits with barely funded extension of stays will be making a mass exodus, as the LB heads for the bottom.

Ladyboy? 

[mike787]

Excellent!! Everything is Ok..the British empire will not fall...Apocalypse is cancelled...I'm heading out to the go go bars for Chang and Hot Thai action...let me know what happens to Europe you guys!

[madmen]

The baht will strengthen on this news !

[micmichd]

8 hours ago, I wonder said:

It’s a big problem for us who are paid pensions out of UK ???? just the mention of BREXIT was enough to devalue sterling ????

The Euro was devalued, too. Guess the Thai Baht is too strong.

[Jaggg88]

7 hours ago, ravip said:

Me no unnnerstannnn who expert is 

How do you become an expert on Brexit? did he study the last one? oh, wait it's never been done before so no one knows.