Pheu Thai to unveil post-election coalition this morning

[Eric Loh]

1 minute ago, Thailand said:

Even more likelihood of yet another coup very soon with this current scenario.

Maybe not necesssary if we catch the hint from junta Law Minister Wissanu “Wissanu also noted that some MPs could be issued “red or orange cards” over electoral violations, and would affect their parties’ seat counts”. 

 

Plotting in earnest. 

[webfact]

Urgent : Pheu Thai coalition? Don’t count on it, says Wissanu

By The Nation

 

 

Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Krea-ngam has called Wednesday’s announcement of a Pheu Thai-led coalition preparing to form a government merely psychological strategy that will not bear fruit.
 

“The truth will be known after May 9 when the Election Commission endorses all of Sunday’s poll results,” Wissanu said soon after the anti-junta bloc of seven parties held a press conference.

 

The bloc claims to have “at least” 255 seats in hand to start building a government.

 

The final seat tally is subject to change since the commission has only announced 95 per cent of the voting results.

 

Wissanu also noted that some MPs could be issued “red or orange cards” over electoral violations, and would affect their parties’ seat counts.

 

“So, nothing is certain,” he said.

 

Full story: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/breakingnews/30366632

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2019-03-27

 

[holy cow cm]

Hell is starting to freeze over here for the Junta, ole fat head 1, fat head 2 and the old wealth snobs.

 

With FFP, the people of the New Generation have really spoken and I wouldn't be a bit surprised if they aren't becoming more willing to stand up no matter what it takes to topple a dictatorship protecting the elite and their own interests above the Thai people.. 

[SkyNets]

One thing is for sure, no poems for awhile

[Reigntax]

Deputy caretaker PM. His time, power and any value of his opinion ended on the 24th.

[Artisi]

6 minutes ago, webfact said:

Urgent : Pheu Thai coalition? Don’t count on it, says Wissanu

By The Nation

 

 

Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Krea-ngam has called Wednesday’s announcement of a Pheu Thai-led coalition preparing to form a government merely psychological strategy that will not bear fruit.
 

“The truth will be known after May 9 when the Election Commission endorses all of Sunday’s poll results,” Wissanu said soon after the anti-junta bloc of seven parties held a press conference.

 

The bloc claims to have “at least” 255 seats in hand to start building a government.

 

The final seat tally is subject to change since the commission has only announced 95 per cent of the voting results.

 

Wissanu also noted that some MPs could be issued “red or orange cards” over electoral violations, and would affect their parties’ seat counts.

 

“So, nothing is certain,” he said.

 

Full story: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/breakingnews/30366632

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2019-03-27

 

one thing is certain and that's the manipulation, the push, and every other dodgy move that can be used, called on, or invented by a certain khaki coloured KKK group to ensure their view of a correct outcome will be at the fore.

Of course this is also the same for the other dodgy mob - neither of which should be allowed anywhere near to being leaders of the country. 

[Baerboxer]

3 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

No they didn’t hitch up with the military silly. 

 

That's right Eric. The PTP PM candidate is new fresh and not controlled by Thaksin is she? 

 

Oh wait, she's a long term Shin crony personally selected by the big boss himself as leader? 

 

My oh my, you really need to read more.

[Baerboxer]

1 hour ago, Samui Bodoh said:

Very smart move on the part of the 'Democratic Front'.

 

It is hard to argue that a constitution is supreme in Thailand given the sheer number of them involved. Further, it is hard to argue that the appointed Senate has the legitimacy to refuse them, regardless of what the constitution says.

 

The onus is now for the Junta to argue that 'Democratically-Elected People' should not be able to form a government; that's a tough sell.

 

The Pro-Democratic forces have seized the moral high ground. 

 

Interesting times...

 

 

 

 

"Democratic Front" headed by the very undemocratic party owned by a crook!

 

About as democratic as the UDD!

 

They have no morals and have shown it time and time again!

[kingstonkid]

4 hours ago, BestB said:

Enemy of my enemy is my friend 

Not really  smart thing would be not to join either.   Now they will be  tarred as taksin lackies  

They could be like bumjathai and stay neutral 

 

[Baerboxer]

1 hour ago, Samui Bodoh said:

"...They urged parties that remain non-committal to join the effort to stop the junta from clinging to power..."

 

Again, a smart move.

 

As long as the focus of all of this is on Democratic Vs. Non-Democratic parties, the forces of goodness have the moral high ground and the Junta must argue that Democratically-elected people do not have the right to form a government.

 

If the forces of Democracy ever get off this point, then they'll all get hit badly.

 

Interesting times...

 

 

 

I really find it quiet baffling, and worrying, why an apparently reasonable educated Western person would actually believe that any of the old school Thai political parties and their politicians have morals, are the slightest bit interested in real democracy and all that entails, and have any thought about serving anyone but themselves.

 

Probably by the same logic that some seem to think the likes of Hun Sen, Maduro, Mugabe, Stalin and Mao were all democratic!

[Eric Loh]

19 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

That's right Eric. The PTP PM candidate is new fresh and not controlled by Thaksin is she? 

 

Oh wait, she's a long term Shin crony personally selected by the big boss himself as leader? 

 

My oh my, you really need to read more.

Shhh BB. I know. We all know. Her background is an open book. Now her coalition has a bigger mission to stop the anti democractic junta from governing next 4 years and creating more inequality to society. You should be proud of what she stand for; no?????. 

[candide]

31 minutes ago, Reigntax said:

Deputy caretaker PM. His time, power and any value of his opinion ended on the 24th.

As far as I understand, the NCPO is not in caretaker mode. They are in full power until a new government is formed. And its puppet organisations and committees will go on after that.

[GarryP]

46 minutes ago, holy cow cm said:

Hell is starting to freeze over here for the Junta, ole fat head 1, fat head 2 and the old wealth snobs.

 

With FFP, the people of the New Generation have really spoken and I wouldn't be a bit surprised if they aren't becoming more willing to stand up no matter what it takes to topple a dictatorship protecting the elite and their own interests above the Thai people.. 

I hope you are right.

[jcsmith]

32 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

That's right Eric. The PTP PM candidate is new fresh and not controlled by Thaksin is she? 

The idea that an unelected government is better than a Thaksin government is ridiculous. I'm not a fan of Thaksin but his party wins election after election for a reason. It is the will of the Thai people. And the junta controlled government has not proven itself to be any less corrupt. The only difference is that they have no mass protests, because the military actually does its job in enforcing this, which they do not do when they are not in control. 

It's time for Thailand to turn the corner. Have legitimate elections. Live by the results of those elections. Follow the rule of law. Don't try to stack elections to get the outcome you desire. Stop enforcing the laws in a one-sided manner. Follow the will of the people and if they are unhappy with the results, allow them to overthrow you in the next election. Why is that so difficult?

[newatthis]

2 hours ago, lemonjelly said:

If it happens, Uncle will find a way to dissolve FFP, possible mass protest would lead to martial law..... also be aware that the junta selected senate sits for 5 years, elections every 4 years, so next election (if there is one) will also be doped.


Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

There is no doubt that there is already a game plan in the pipeline. The PPRP can sit back, relax and allow that fix to be done for them.

[poohy]

Oh dear

 

Little P and his mates are dusting the tanks off 

All the above sounds far too much like democracy for the junta especially when they are not involved.

 

Coup anyone???

[candide]

25 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

I really find it quiet baffling, and worrying, why an apparently reasonable educated Western person would actually believe that any of the old school Thai political parties and their politicians have morals, are the slightest bit interested in real democracy and all that entails, and have any thought about serving anyone but themselves.

 

Probably by the same logic that some seem to think the likes of Hun Sen, Maduro, Mugabe, Stalin and Mao were all democratic!

You may be right but that does not really matter. They may well be pro-democracy by self-interest, simply because they don't have access to the other sources of power that the yellow/green camp controls. On the one side we have crooks pushing for putting power in the hands of elected people, and on the other side we have a clan of crooks trying to maintain the dominance of unelected forms of power. I definitely prefer the first direction.

 

[crazykopite]

Fingers crossed all will come good and the military can return to barracks and let the good people of Thailand get on with their lives 

[candide]

9 minutes ago, poohy said:

Oh dear

 

Little P and his mates are dusting the tanks off 

All the above sounds far too much like democracy for the junta especially when they are not involved.

 

Coup anyone???

There are several built-in mechanisms in the constitution to allow legal 'coups without coup'. 

Moreover, the 3 P's military faction does not control the army any more. If there is a coup one day, it will not be pro-Prayuth.

[roobaa01]

if orange and red cards would be issued , then tanks would have to be needed.

 

wbr

roobaa01

[Samui Bodoh]

1 hour ago, Thailand said:

Even more likelihood of yet another coup very soon with this current scenario.

This raises an interesting question; is yet another coup possible?

 

Yes, it is theoretically possible, but as a practical matter?

 

Thailand is dependent on tourism, and although the current government doesn't seem to care about Western tourists, we bring a great deal of money to the country; would Thailand be willing to see that cut? Lose several points off the GNP? Tourists would still come, but fewer and fewer of them and once gone they won't be back. Would Thailand be willing to see total reliance on China in the tourism sector? I am not so sure...

 

Secondly, Thailand's economy is very dependent on exports, and a great deal of that goes to Western economies. Yes, it would continue post-coup, but inevitably there would be a cut. Would Thailand be willing to see yet another economic drop? Combined with the certainty that Vietnam would aggressively step into the proverbial breach? Further, what sane person (other than the Chinese) would invest? One coup you could gloss over, two coups perhaps in a pinch, but three in less than 20 years?

 

Third, what would the Thai people say to a third coup in less than twenty years? We are used to a certain passivity in the Thai populace, but we all also know that when pushed too far, there tends to be an explosion. Would the Thai Establishment risk that? They might, but then again anger unleashed has a tendency to grow exponentially, and the Establishment people aren't stupid. Or, put another way... you can put a man down once and get away with it, you can put a man down twice and perhaps get away with it, but if you come back and try to put a man down a third time? There is a good chance that he simply won't care anymore, and there are few things more dangerous than a wounded animal who decides he doesn't care. Hmm...

 

Further to the above, Thailand 2019 is not Thailand 2006 or Thailand 2014.

 

Fourth, what would be the international reaction, or more accurately, how much embarrassment would the Thai establishment be willing to tolerate? A third coup in under twenty years would make Thailand an international laughing stock, and the Establishment here has to know that. It was one thing to get away with it in the past, but in these modern times with cell phones, Facebook, Twitter, etc? It would be pure ridicule. Thailand would likely be removed as Chair of ASEAN, laughed at in the UN, etc. Would Thailand be able to tolerate all this? Hmm...

 

Fifth, what would be the macro-economic repercussions? I saw today that 45 Billion dollars or so is being spent on the EEC. What if the only potential investors are Chinese and they decide that they want rather large discounts?

 

Another coup here is possible, but I think that the repercussions would be exponentially higher than the last one, especially coming on the heels of an election.

 

I would also add that Thailand weathered the last coup reasonably well economically, but would the economy do okay if another coup were to occur? I suspect that the super-wealthy businessmen and women are getting a bit fretful at the moment, and may not be willing to go down that path again. And, they are influential. Hmm...

 

It is a game of high stakes 'Chicken', but I think that the forces of Democracy may well have a bit more 'heft' than they realize...

 

Interesting times....

 

[Grossman]

1 hour ago, webfact said:

Wissanu also noted that some MPs could be issued “red or orange cards” over electoral violations, and would affect their parties’ seat counts.

 

The same crap again and again. Rape a nation, get caught red-handed and then blame someone else for it.. "We did nothing, how could we?"

[malibukid]

5 hours ago, GinBoy2 said:

Welcome to the next coup!

 

Bookies are taking odds

not good for tourism

[roobaa01]

so with theoretical civil unrest and a theoretical coup in the air will the baht decline sharply and gold rise ????

 

wbr

roobaa01

[malibukid]

3 hours ago, billd766 said:

OTOH joining forces in an alliance will give them valuable experience in government that it currently lacks and could well put an end to/temper the more wild PTP ideas.

 

As for the BJT they used to be for hire to the highest bidders.

 

The Democrats are now a busted flush. They need to dump Abhisit and the old dinosaur party members and rebuild from the bottom up as a completely revamped party.

 

At least the ACT under Suthep will not be invited to join this coalition.

PTP has no doubt made some concessions to FFP.  this is the way forward. i have also heard that complaints against some MP's will be "investigated"?  this could splinter a fragile coalition.  

[malibukid]

2 hours ago, Grossman said:

Sadly, this most likely won't turn out to be. As the judgement for FFP was ever so conveniently pushed ahead (need more bullsh*t evidence), what I see likely happening is that the junta dorks and their masters will just play a waiting game (after all, what's the rush, the results won't be official until after the coronation anyway) with some back and forth barking with the anti-junta coalition for show and at a convenient time (immediately after the coronation to avoid unrest before and during it), they go ahead and drop the bomb by dissolving FFP (and possibly others) and announce PPRP as the undisputed winner (by having both the popular vote and larger coalition on their side after the purge). Conveniently by this time also the eyes of the international community have found more interesting things to stare at and the possible opposition from foreign countries will be limited to skepineless statements (as usual). 

 

Any emerging civil unrest can then be suppressed on the grounds of national security, being a threat to a legitimate elected government.

 

Should everything else fail, they bring out the gimp Apirat.

 

Bye bye democracy, well hello there Rolex!

keeping my 800k in the pocket.  the will bode will for the USD.

[zydeco]

2 minutes ago, malibukid said:

keeping my 800k in the pocket.  the will bode will for the USD.

That's the good news. The bad news is there won't be anything on the store shelves to spend it on.

[Grossman]

3 minutes ago, zydeco said:

That's the good news. The bad news is there won't be anything on the store shelves to spend it on.

 

Period clothing and Prayut "Dad Of The Nation" Chan-o-cha-cha's ever growing discography will be largely available. And of course Your-Friend-Prawit -plushies for huggies on all those lonely evenings without alcohol. All that baht well spent.

[Xaos]

When coup? 

[sjaak327]

This is extremely good news. However, I wouldn't put it past the EC to magically adjust a few numbers so that those projected 255 seat magically are below 250......