Pheu Thai to unveil post-election coalition this morning

[sjaak327]

24 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

At the time of the coup, people were sick of PTP. They didn't want them anymore as demonstrated by the general apathy when the non-elected red shirt UDD leaders tried to call their "bang the war drum" gathering. 

But the reasons behind the coup weren't so simple as restoring order.

 

If Thaksin had the military on his side or if they remained strictly neutral, do you think he'd have suddenly started obeying the law, respecting the rules and allow real elections and abide by the results? Look at the PTP behavior when they lost by-elections whilst in power. He would behave exactly like many other so called "men of the people" leaders around the world who cling on to power however they can, He proved this when he resigned as caretaker PM and then kicked the officially appointed replacement out and seized the job back purely on his own authority. So much for respecting process!

 

You go on "facts" that suit you and go on "theories" that suit you whilst ignoring extrapolations that don't suit.

 

Thaksin and his gang have been outmuscled again by a bigger gang.  The international community know what really goes on here and whilst making the usual expected statements generally ignore it. 

I can not comment on what Thaksin might have done, I stick to commenting on what he did do, and under which circumstance. And the same I apply to the Junta. 

 

The reason for the coup was a pretty simple one, Thaksin mastered the art of obtaining a mandate. And the 20 year roadmap is pretty clear, as they know full well that there will Always be another one on the horizon that would be equally succesful at obtaining a mandate. The coup was to curtail the influence of the electorate nothing more and nothing less. 

[jayboy]

1 hour ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Your like a broken record. 

 

PTP polled less than half the votes in this election than 2011. Shows how the people now regard the crook and his crime family.

 

Thaksin never staged a coup because he never had the military on board. He had the police in his pocket but they weren't powerful enough to keep him in office let alone stage a coup. Even though PTP were in power they couldn't follow the correct procedures and tried to sneak and fiddle his amnesty through. The reaction from the public, not the mob who later hi-jacked it for then own reasons, but the real public disdain spoke volumes. And has probably been reflected at the ballot box.

 

PTP's trickery in lying to the people, lying to the opposition about not having a vote and then having one after the opposition went home, MP's voting for absent colleagues, the court cases, threats to judges, threats to any critics and opposition etc suggests they are no better really than others. But have never quiet managed to get the level of control and power they want. To suggest they are moral just because they won an election his sophistry.

 

Thaksin and Hun Sen are close friends. Who gave Yingluck a Cambodian passport. A Shin girl married a son of one of Hun Sen's close allies. The difference between the Junta and Thaksin is the Junta have the muscle and Thaksin doesn't. So he had to be craftier and more manipulative. And no doubt he's very good at that. But he and his cronies just can't help themselves and when elected start the scams, the lies and doing illegal things which leaves them wide open. 

 

To suggest PTP will or have changed is naive at best. Same owner, same bottle, same old vinegar wine.

 

 

As well as coming up with a great deal of nonsense, your answer also reveals the paranoia and illogicality about Thaksin that's very common in the Thai urban middle class.As Joshua Kurlantzick put it:

 

"Puea Thai, a populist anti-junta party, appears to have won the most constituency seats in the lower house, and the anti-junta parties collectively won the largest share of the popular vote. In a system with a truly elected senate, fairer election laws or a better climate for political activism, they would have had the first chance to form a government and pick a prime minister."

 

 

1. The PTP vote was certainly less than expected but with allies, they still have a chance of forming a government. Hardly a party on the way out 

 

2. More importantly, the sham election and the rigged constitution was prepared by the Junta on the basis PTP must be weakened.

 

3. Why would Thaksin want to stage a coup? He achieved power legitimately.

 

4. I agree with the idiocy of the proposed umbrella amnesty. But as you say the reasonable protests were soon hijacked by Suthep and his thugs.

 

5. I cannot really follow the logic that poor PTP practices undermine the case for more liberal democracy. With a better opposition, the PTP could have been voted out.

 

6. But your greatest mistake is to believe that Thaksin and the Junta are but two sides of the same coin. I think you overestimate Thaksin's astuteness by the way.

[ttrd]

8 hours ago, BestB said:

Enemy of my enemy is my friend 

Enemy of my enemy is my friend's enemy which will make it challenging for Thaksin's return ...

[The Deerhunter]

8 hours ago, FarangDoingHisThing69 said:

Surprised to see FFP hitching up to the old order.


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Pheu Thai are not the old order.  They also originally were formed to unseat the real old order who are still a sort of coalition force to be reckoned with independent of the election. Who do you think is in the box seat to get the 250 special Senate seats under the new constitution?  And who will be appointing them? 

[sawadee1947]

On one hand I hope that there will be a non junta coaltion, but on the other hand the next coup is ante portas. 

Anyway Thailand will struggle to gain full democracy. 

Because the fish stinks #######

[jesimps]

7 hours ago, GarryP said:

I am at a loss to understand why so many people are surprised that FFP joined up with PTP. They both have policies to downsize and reduce spending on the military. They have both made it clear they could not support Prayuth as the PM.  They also have some other similar policies. And just because some believe that PT is the most corrupt party ever (the junta actually leaves PT in the dust on the corruption scale), does not make those other parties joining in the coalition (if it succeeds) corrupt too. In fact, they would probably be in a position to increase oversight over what is happening in the government. 

 

Also, of the people who voted FFP who I have spoken to, not one of them believes it wrong to join up with PT to form the government.  It seems it is mainly the holier than thou foreign crowd who have problems with it.       

"It seems it is mainly the holier than thou foreign crowd who have problems with it."

 

There're going to be some very pear-shaped junta fanboys on here if those parties join with PTP. Their outrage will know no bounds. How dare politicians use democracy to get their hands on power, it's just too honest. You know who I'm talking about; the usual culprits.

[JAG]

If such a coalition manages to form a government you can expect two things I suggest.

 

1 - A coup will remove it within (probably less than) a year, because the political and economic establishment to which the military are beholden are implacably opposed to the Thai people selecting their own government.

 

2 - A number of commentators on this forum, we may call them the "usual suspects" will leap to the defence of, and enthusiastically justify, such a coup. Despite their claims to support democracy, they too are implacably opposed to the Thai people selecting their own government

[Caine]

Who gives a toss, the country is washed up for visitors anyway. 

[sjaak327]

10 minutes ago, JAG said:

If such a coalition manages to form a government you can expect two things I suggest.

 

1 - A coup will remove it within (probably less than) a year, because the political and economic establishment to which the military are beholden are implacably opposed to the Thai people selecting their own government.

 

2 - A number of commentators on this forum, we may call them the "usual suspects" will leap to the defence of, and enthusiastically justify, such a coup. Despite their claims to support democracy, they too are implacably opposed to the Thai people selecting their own government

According to the published result, this coalition can indeed count on a majority in the lower house, this effectively ends Palang Pracharath Party search for such a coalition, also because it is quite clearly not their place to even start forming this coalition, the party with the most seats has that right. 

 

So with this out of the way, it will be very interesting to see if Prayuth will indeed overplay his hand and somehow block this coalition through the senate. If legitimacy was his ultimate goal, he cannot possibly block this coalition. It must be sad that despite all the measures put in place (including dissolvement of a major party aligned to Thaksin) he still didn't manage to get a simple majority in the lower house. 

 

If he does block this coalition using the senate, he would indeed have more than enough senators to become PM, but to what purpose, those senators might be able to help him to become a PM, they will not be able to help him pass laws in the lower house, with a 255 MP majority in the lower house, he could and probably will be rendered teethless. 

 

And no article 44 can come to the rescue. 

[JAG]

7 minutes ago, sjaak327 said:

 

If he does block this coalition using the senate, he would indeed have more than enough senators to become PM, but to what purpose, those senators might be able to help him to become a PM, they will not be able to help him pass laws in the lower house, with a 255 MP majority in the lower house, he could and probably will be rendered teethless. 

At which point, I suspect, Article 44 will be reintroduced in some form or another.

 

I don't think that he will be able to resist the temptation to use the senate to put himself into power. Once in power he will be a unable to resist a mechanism to allow him to have his own way. And so the clown car will continue to trundle along, until that point (near or distant) when there is a loud bang and the wheels fall off...

[sjaak327]

2 minutes ago, JAG said:

At which point, I suspect, Article 44 will be reintroduced in some form or another.

 

I don't think that he will be able to resist the temptation to use the senate to put himself into power. Once in power he will be a unable to resist a mechanism to allow him to have his own way. And so the clown car will continue to trundle along, until that point (near or distant) when there is a loud bang and the wheels fall off...

He might, then again he might simply call it a day. He still has the senate and the 20 year road map at his disposal. Plenty of influence in any case. 

[raccos21]

Actually, we can see most of the people don't really agree with the junta. So they should come to an agreement or there might be another coup. I think people are tired.

[Artisi]

30 minutes ago, JAG said:

At which point, I suspect, Article 44 will be reintroduced in some form or another.

 

I don't think that he will be able to resist the temptation to use the senate to put himself into power. Once in power he will be a unable to resist a mechanism to allow him to have his own way. And so the clown car will continue to trundle along, until that point (near or distant) when there is a loud bang and the wheels fall off...

The loud bang might happen sooner than later and this time it mightn't be all roses and flowers as the election has demonstrated there are a lot of people against the junta lead team and this team needs to tread very gently. 

[Enoon]

29 minutes ago, Artisi said:

The loud bang might happen sooner than later and this time it mightn't be all roses and flowers as the election has demonstrated there are a lot of people against the junta lead team and this team needs to tread very gently. 

 

Quite so.

 

The elections have done nothing to resolve any conflict or move the country towards a system of peaceful, equitable, co-operation and co-existence of pluralities.

 

All that has been done is to clearly, publicly define the two sides in the coming conflagration.

 

The Army vs The Coalition.

 

All now formalised.

 

No need for any "Shirts" now.

 

 

 

 

 

[sjaak327]

40 minutes ago, Enoon said:

 

Quite so.

 

The elections have done nothing to resolve any conflict or move the country towards a system of peaceful, equitable, co-operation and co-existence of pluralities.

 

All that has been done is to clearly, publicly define the two sides in the coming conflagration.

 

The Army vs The Coalition.

 

All now formalised.

 

No need for any "Shirts" now.

 

 

 

 

 

The junta government did nothing to even try to achieve some form of reconciliation, absolutely nothing at all. In fact one could say that their actions only deepened the divide. 

 

With the constitution, they already achieved a few things: 

 

1) different vote count, which is aimed at putting parties successful in the constituency at a disadvantage for party list seat counting

2) fully appointed senate

3) the ability for unelected senators to vote for the PM (effectively for the coalition government), firstly only in case of any inability of the lower house to reach an agreement, but seemingly changed to be the case regardless. The concept of the outsider PM has therefore been radically changed AFTER the electorate "Approved" the constitution

4) 20 year road map

 

But since Prayuth suddenly decided that points 2 and 4 were not enough to retain control, he decided to try and run for PM, so the Junta did several more things:

 

1) dissolved a major party connected to Thaksin on dubious grounds. The junta fanboys claiming Thaksin lost half of the votes, don't realize that PTP was only contesting in 250 out of 350 constituencies, the dissolved party would have taken those seats, now those seats most likely went to FFP

2) curtailed campaigning 

3) massive vote buying through a government fund, conveniently named the same as the party 

4) there are many reports of voting irregularities, more counted ballots than registered voters, and several other things.

 

Despite all of those points, they still failed to curtail PTP and FFP and together those two parties form a massive obstacle in Prayuth's desire to become the next PM. 

 

Time will tell, will he pipe down and rely on the road map and senate to control the next government and leave it at that, or is his ego to big and he will employ the senators to get his PM post, with a minority in the lower house technically making this government useless. 

 

A smart man would try the first option, the second option will most likely be fruitless, it also lacks any democratic legitimacy. 

 

[Khaeng Mak]

For the life of me, I cannot see how all this is not going to end in violence.

[wreckingcountry]

The people against the army junta ! If that’s the way the junta wants it , let it happen ! A rigged election with a fake PM who will do what he wants whatever the Lower house decides!


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[4MyEgo]

18 hours ago, canuckamuck said:

So there will be an antijunta government and Prayut will be the Prime Minister?  It seems like Prayut's vision of creating Thai style democracy is coming true. Nowhere else in the world would you find a specimen such as this.

Yes Prayut knew his party wouldn't win, but having changed the constitution which is stacked in his favour, i.e. guaranteeing 250 seats and the fact that the other parties need xyz to elect a PM, he knows he is in, and of course if he doesn't like how things are travelling, one call to his military mates and we have a coup once again, 13 is an unlucky number I am told, could that coup if it happens be the mother of all coups with the uprising that will split the country ?

[raccos21]

So the next coup will be fatigues vs redshirt if they don't come to an agreement.

[TKDfella]

I read this morning that a junta spokesman has advised (or warned) parties to avoid causing conflict. Writing on the wall?

[GarryP]

1 hour ago, raccos21 said:

So the next coup will be fatigues vs redshirt if they don't come to an agreement.

Red shirts are so passe. Orange is the new red.

[jayboy]

2 hours ago, TKDfella said:

I read this morning that a junta spokesman has advised (or warned) parties to avoid causing conflict. Writing on the wall?

 

 

Yes, a shot across the bows. If the Pheua Thai coalition develops momentum, it will be sabotaged before Parliament is convened with the assistance of the Junta's pliant Constitutional Court and Electoral Commission. It may be through the dissolution of Fast Forward or even Pheua Thai, or it may be just the distribution of cash to waverers. Whatever the method it just won't be allowed to happen because, in the eyes of the creeps involved, it would mean the coup was wasted.

[Khaeng Mak]

15 minutes ago, jayboy said:

 

 

Yes, a shot across the bows. If the Pheua Thai coalition develops momentum, it will be sabotaged before Parliament is convened with the assistance of the Junta's pliant Constitutional Court and Electoral Commission. It may be through the dissolution of Fast Forward or even Pheua Thai, or it may be just the distribution of cash to waverers. Whatever the method it just won't be allowed to happen because, in the eyes of the creeps involved, it would mean the coup was wasted.

For the life of me I cannot see how all this will not end in violence.

[Eric Loh]

2 hours ago, GarryP said:

Red shirts are so passe. Orange is the new red.

By orange you meant the young student activists and their likes; I agree. Like 1992. The Reds and Yellows are out of the game, disunited, demoralized and leaderless.   

[CGW]

8 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Yellows are out of the game

Are you sure about that? looking more like game, set & match yellow from my observations?

[Eric Loh]

1 minute ago, CGW said:

Are you sure about that? looking more like game, set & match yellow from my observations?

That's green not yellow. Yellow has been betrayed by the green and big yellow. 

[CGW]

1 minute ago, Eric Loh said:

That's green not yellow. Yellow has been betrayed by the green and big yellow. 

Clear as mud! - so black is the new black then ????

[Grossman]

42 minutes ago, jayboy said:

Whatever the method it just won't be allowed to happen because, in the eyes of the creeps involved, it would mean the coup was wasted.

 

That, plus there is so much accumulated dirty junta laundry that they simply cannot let anyone else at the helm. Someone might start digging and asking too many questions.. despite the smell telling the obvious already. 

[jayboy]

35 minutes ago, Khaeng Mak said:

For the life of me I cannot see how all this will not end in violence.

Who knows? I don't detect much other than resignation at the moment.

 

One point not much commented on is that Korn Chatikavanij one of the leading Democrats has explicitly ruled out working with Pheua Thai (and by inference being willing to work with Palang Pracharat). That means there could never be a united anti-army rule coalition which the dinosaurs couldn't easily subvert.

 

It's difficult to overestimate the significance of this point. Most Thai politicians - whether in or out of uniform - unpleasant, self-serving and corrupt. Korn (and a few others) are different - independently wealthy, highly competent, very well educated, knowledgeable about the world, personable and in short a decent man. Unlike most feral politicians, he KNOWS what is the decent thing to do - yet he does the opposite. What can explain it?  Tribalism and class solidarity I suppose, never to be underestimated in politics.

 

Of course, it's completely understandable why Korn recoils at the prospect of working with Pheua Thai - but politics is about compromise, and the opposite is so much worse. Maybe he should have a word with Nick Clegg. Joking apart someone like Korn on the inside could monitor and crack down on any PTP skullduggery 

[Eric Loh]

44 minutes ago, jayboy said:

Of course, it's completely understandable why Korn recoils at the prospect of working with Pheua Thai - but politics is about compromise, and the opposite is so much worse

There is now calls from the Dem supporters for the executives to step down. The executives like Korn have been making the decisions on party direction for the last decade and have only brought dismal results. The call is to allow the MPs who won seats and accountable to their people to have a voice in the party’s policies and direction. Things may go fairly ambiguous in supporting Prayut. Some MPs call for non alliance to all parties and stay as opposition in Parliament. This not good news for Prayut if that happen.